Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
UgandaBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Uganda — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
24
Draft 1 candidate lines for Uganda
The Minister’s brief · for Henry Musasizi · Uganda
Minister Musasizi, Uganda holds what the continent cannot easily replicate: coffee. In the twelve months to October 2025 you shipped 8.4 million sixty-kilogram bags worth US$2.4 billion, overtaking Ethiopia to stand as Africa's leading coffee exporter and its largest Robusta producer — a position built on more than 1.8 million smallholder households, two annual harvests and a coherent National Coffee Policy, structural rather than cyclical. Each year the continent spends heavily importing the very crops its member states already grow; this is your claim on it. The Right of Supply grants Uganda a twenty-five-year first right to serve that demand, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract — you hold it only while you match the market. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional: the endowment is beyond dispute, the allocation is not yet settled. Your correction, Minister, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Uganda
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Henry Musasizi, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Uganda · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Musasizi,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Uganda — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Uganda is in this room

Uganda's strongest and most defensible position is coffee. In the twelve months to October 2025 it exported 8.4 million 60-kg bags worth US$2.4 billion, overtaking Ethiopia to become Africa's leading coffee exporter and the continent's largest Robusta producer, on a base of more than 1.8 million smallholder households, two annual harvests and a coherent National Coffee Policy. The honest constraint is twofold and must be stated plainly: only around 5 per cent of that coffee is processed domestically, so the country exports green beans and forgoes the roasting and soluble value; and Uganda is landlocked, dependent on Mombasa with road transit of roughly fourteen days, more than 90 per cent of corridor freight on road, and a Standard Gauge Railway contracted but not yet at financial close. Capability here is genuine and present-tense; the value captured from it is not yet.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Uganda, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Uganda

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
24draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Uganda’s draft bundle. 24 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Coffee (green Robusta+Arabica). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 7 strong contender · 10 emerging · 4 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Uganda is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 24 candidate lines proposed for Uganda below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Uganda. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Uganda will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Uganda will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
24 lines
Uganda’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Uganda at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Uganda’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Uganda’s own capability audit.

Gold as a Ugandan production capability

Gold exports earned US$3.4 billion in 2024, some 37 per cent of export revenue, but this overwhelmingly reflects re-export of imported, largely DRC, gold refined domestically; domestic mine production is primarily artisanal. The audit further records that the US Treasury sanctioned African Gold Refinery Ltd and its owner Alain Goetz on 17 March 2022, and notes gold-sourcing and sanctions exposure as a threat to delivery credibility.

Capability inversion · re-export versus domestic output

Crude petroleum as near-term supply

The audit tiers crude petroleum as aspirational and pre-production. First oil is targeted for the second half of 2026, and the 60,000 barrel-a-day Kabaale refinery, whose implementation agreement was signed in March 2025, is not yet built and is reported online no earlier than around 2030. The audit states that oil production and refinery timelines are forward-looking and subject to slippage.

Pre-production · timeline risk

Iron ore and direct reduced iron

Muko hematite grades 65 to 68 per cent Fe with more than 200 million tonnes confirmed, but the stage today is raw with exports banned since 2011/2012, and the audit classes the category as aspirational. Reserve figures are described as pre-JORC and pre-NI 43-101 government and academic estimates rather than bankable reserves.

Raw base · industrial screen

Cobalt and copper from Kilembe

The Kilembe copper deposits, around 4 million tonnes at approximately 1.98 per cent Cu, are dormant, the mining licence was cancelled in 2017, and the beneficiation stage is recorded as none. The audit lists resolution of dormant assets among the conditions that would have to be true before any supply claim could be made.

Dormant asset · no current capability

Rare earth elements at Makuutu

The Makuutu project is pre-development, with more than 500 million tonnes of rare-earth-bearing material claimed in eastern Uganda. The audit treats the figure as a claim rather than a defined reserve and states that mineral and oil-downstream categories should be treated as endowment-based potential, not current supply capacity.

Pre-development · unverified resource

Roasted and soluble coffee as a finished good

Only around 5 per cent of Ugandan coffee is processed domestically; the trade is overwhelmingly green-bean export. The audit identifies failure to move beyond this share as a cap on value capture, and lists lifting domestic processing well above 5 per cent among the conditions that would have to be true.

Capability inversion · raw base versus finished good
08 · Endowment
What Uganda actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Uganda. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Uganda's endowment is, first and above all, agricultural. In the twelve months to October 2025 the country exported 8.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee worth US$2.4 billion, surpassing Ethiopia's 7.82 million bags to become Africa's leading coffee exporter and the continent's largest Robusta producer, with Robusta accounting for some 80 to 85 per cent of output. More than 1.8 million smallholder households grow the crop, up from 1.7 million five years earlier. Alongside coffee sit cocoa, at 72,545 tonnes worth US$620.43 million in FY2024/25 and roughly 74 per cent of East African cocoa exports; tea, at around 80,000 tonnes in 2023, placing Uganda second in Africa after Kenya; Lake Victoria Nile perch and fish maws, which earned more than US$960 million across the six years to 2023 on 104,624 tonnes; maize, at some 2.27 to 2.3 million tonnes produced in 2023/24 and the principal regional surplus supplier to Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and South Sudan; and vanilla, at around 604 tonnes exported in 2024.

The energy position is the second pillar. Installed generation capacity stood at 2,048.5 MW at end-September 2024 following commissioning of the 600 MW Karuma hydropower plant, with hydropower representing 83.5 per cent of installed capacity and the overall mix approximately 93 per cent clean. Demand of 985 MW against that capacity left a surplus of 1,063 MW as of December 2024, and Uganda is now a net power exporter to Kenya, Tanzania, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and South Sudan. Recoverable reserves in the Albertine Graben were revised to 1.65 billion barrels in November 2025, with the Tilenga and Kingfisher projects at 60 per cent and 74 per cent completion respectively and EACOP at 75 per cent, first oil targeted for the second half of 2026. The mineral endowment includes Muko hematite at 65 to 68 per cent Fe with more than 200 million tonnes confirmed, Sukulu and Osukuru phosphate, Hima and Tororo limestone, dormant Kilembe copper and cobalt deposits, and the Makuutu rare earths project.

The industrial base is thin but real. Manufacturing value added was US$7.63 billion in 2023, roughly 15.65 per cent of GDP, easing to about 15.19 per cent in 2024. Cement is the clearest manufactured surplus, with national capacity of around 6 million tonnes a year against some 3 million tonnes of demand and established exports to the DRC, South Sudan and Rwanda. The African Gold Refinery at Entebbe holds refining capacity of 219 tonnes a year, among Africa's largest after South Africa and Ghana. Against this, economic complexity is very low: the Harvard Centre for International Development placed Uganda 102nd of 128 on 2010 data and the country remains in the bottom third globally. Products with revealed comparative advantage above one are coffee, tea, cocoa beans, fish fillets and maws, vanilla, sesame, cut roses, dried beans, tobacco, maize and cereals, cement and gold. The Atlas logic points to deepening agro-processing, including roasted and soluble coffee, cocoa processing, processed fish, dairy and horticulture, rather than a leap to complex manufacturing, which remains distant from current capabilities.

The endowment in depth

Uganda's mineral sector is dominated by gold, though largely as refined and re-exported material rather than domestic mine output. Gold exports earned US$3.4 billion in 2024, roughly 37% of export revenue (Bank of Uganda), but this overwhelmingly reflects re-export of imported — largely DRC — gold refined domestically; domestic mine production is primarily artisanal. The African Gold Refinery at Entebbe holds a refining capacity of 219 tonnes per year, one of Africa's largest after South Africa and Ghana, and the Chinese-owned Wagagai Gold Mine in Busia — Uganda's first large-scale gold mine — processes 5,000 tonnes of ore per day to produce about 1.2 tonnes of refined gold per year. Beyond gold the endowment is broad but shallowly developed: cobalt historically refined at Kasese from Kilembe pyrites, now dormant; copper at Kilembe (~4 Mt at ~1.98% Cu, dormant, licence cancelled 2017); high-grade iron ore at Muko (30–50 Mt+ hematite at 65–68% Fe, with magnetite at Sukulu/Bukusu — over 200 Mt hematite plus 60 Mt magnetite confirmed by the Department of Geological Survey and Mines); phosphate at Sukulu/Osukuru near Tororo; limestone at Hima, Tororo and Dura underpinning cement; plus tin, tungsten, tantalum, niobium, vermiculite, beryl and rare-earth potential at the Makuutu project (over 500 Mt of REE-bearing material claimed). Beneficiation is largely absent outside gold refining, cement and the Sukulu phosphate-fertiliser plant, and Uganda banned raw iron-ore exports in 2011/2012 in pursuit of value addition.

Energy is the coming macro catalyst. Recoverable oil reserves in the Albertine Graben were revised to 1.65 billion barrels (Petroleum Authority of Uganda, November 2025), within an estimated 6.5 billion barrels in place. The TotalEnergies-operated Tilenga project (836 million barrels recoverable) and CNOOC's Kingfisher (214 million barrels) stood at advanced completion in November 2025 — Tilenga 60%, Kingfisher 74%, and the 1,443 km East African Crude Oil Pipeline to Tanga, Tanzania, 75% — with a combined plateau of about 230,000–240,000 barrels per day and first oil targeted for H2 2026. The 60,000 bbl/day Kabaale/Hoima refinery, whose implementation agreement was signed in March 2025 with Alpha MBM Investments of the UAE (60%) and the Government (40%), is not yet built and is reported online no earlier than around 2030. On power, installed generation capacity reached 2,048.5 MW at end-September 2024 following commissioning of the 600 MW Karuma hydropower plant; hydropower is 83.5% of installed capacity and the mix is roughly 93% clean, drawing on Karuma, the Nalubaale/Kiira Owen Falls complex (380 MW), Bujagali (250 MW), Isimba (183 MW), Achwa 1 and 2 (87 MW) and about 110 MW of sugar-bagasse cogeneration. Demand of 985 MW against 2,048 MW installed left a surplus of 1,063 MW in December 2024, making Uganda a net power exporter to Kenya, Tanzania, DRC, Rwanda and South Sudan, though electrification remains at 51.5% nationally (76.4% urban, 42.4% rural) and the Vision 2040 target of 52,000 MW by 2040 is highly aspirational.

The agricultural base is world-class and continental in scale. Coffee is the anchor: in the twelve months to October 2025 Uganda exported 8.4 million 60-kg bags worth US$2.4 billion (MAAIF/UCDA), overtaking Ethiopia's 7.82 million bags to become Africa's number-one coffee exporter and the continent's leading Robusta producer, resting on more than 1.8 million smallholder households — yet only around 5% is processed domestically. Cocoa has risen sharply, with FY2024/25 exports of 72,545 tonnes valued at US$620.43 million (Bank of Uganda), more than double the prior year, making Uganda East Africa's largest cocoa exporter at about 74% of regional exports. Tea output was around 80,000 tonnes in 2023 for over US$76 million, Africa's second-largest after Kenya but at weak yields and prices (~$0.85/kg versus Kenya's $2.02). Lake Victoria's Nile perch and maws earned more than US$960 million over the six years to 2023 (104,624 tonnes), though only 12 processing plants now operate — down from over 20 — at under 20% capacity, with fish maw a high-value niche (~$200/kg locally, up to $1,000–7,700/kg in Hong Kong). Vanilla exports of about 604 tonnes in 2024 (US$16.6m on government figures, US$22.0m on Comtrade/WITS) place Uganda as the cited world number-two natural-vanilla exporter behind Madagascar, and maize production of roughly 2.3 million tonnes makes Uganda the principal regional surplus supplier to Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and South Sudan.

The manufacturing base is thin but growing, with value added of US$7.63 billion in 2023 (about 15.65% of GDP, easing to 15.19% in 2024), led by food and beverage processing and including cement, steel rolling and galvanising, sugar, plastics, soap, textiles and pharmaceuticals such as Cipla Quality Chemicals. Cement is a genuine regional strength — national capacity of about 6 million tonnes against roughly 3 million tonnes of demand, spread across Tororo Cement (expanded to ~5 Mt), Hima Cement (over 2 Mt, Sarrai Group-owned since 2024) and Kampala/Simba/National Cement, with exports to DRC, South Sudan and Rwanda — whereas integrated steel at Roofings Rolling Mills and Tembo Steel remains small (around 72,000 tonnes historically, using some Muko ore via DRI/EAF but importing billet). Industrial capacity is being concentrated in named parks: Namanve (Kampala Industrial & Business Park), Luzira, Jinja, the Uganda-China Guangdong Free Zone at Sukulu/Tororo and the Kabalega Petrochemical Park at Hoima. Human capital is young and low-cost but under-absorbed: the labour force was 22.83 million in 2024, yet of 600,000–700,000 annual labour-market entrants investment projects absorb less than 10%, schooling averages about 7 years (4 learning-adjusted), only around 1 in 20 attend university, and education spending is 2.7% of GDP against the EAC average of 4.2%, with the tertiary and technical base anchored by Makerere University. Logistics are the binding physical constraint: landlocked Uganda depends on Kenya's Mombasa (Northern Corridor, ~83% of Mombasa transit cargo is Ugandan) and Tanzania's Dar es Salaam, with over 90% of corridor freight on road, a ~14-day Mombasa–Kampala road transit and a 2018 World Bank LPI of 2.58 (infrastructure 2.19); the 272 km Malaba–Kampala Standard Gauge Railway (€2.7bn, Yapı Merkezi) was launched in November 2024 but awaits financial close, while the metre-gauge line is being rehabilitated with US$301 million of AfDB financing.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Uganda's Economic Complexity Index is among the world's lowest. The Harvard Center for International Development's "How Should Uganda Grow?" placed the country 102nd of 128 on 2010 UN Comtrade data, and it remains in the bottom third globally — comparable to peers such as Tanzania (~116th) and Ghana (~124th) on 2023 data — though the exact current Harvard Atlas rank and value are GREY, pending direct extraction from a JS-rendered table. Products revealing comparative advantage (RCA above 1) are overwhelmingly primary: coffee, tea, cocoa beans, fish fillets and maws, vanilla, sesame, cut roses and flowers, dried legumes, tobacco, maize and cereals, cement and re-exported gold.

Critically, the trajectory is towards concentration rather than diversification: the top three products — unwrought gold, unroasted coffee and cocoa beans — moved from 29.8% of export revenue in 2017 to 81.6% in 2024, so the base grew in volume while narrowing in breadth. The Atlas growth-lab logic identifies Uganda's nearest feasible diversification in adjacent peripheral primary products — deepening agro-processing into roasted and soluble coffee, cocoa processing, processed fish, dairy and horticulture — rather than a leap to complex machinery or chemicals, which remain "distant" from current capabilities.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Coffee (HS 0901) is Uganda's single strongest and most defensible continental supply position, and the evidence is Tier-1 and unambiguous. In the twelve months to October 2025 Uganda exported 8.4 million 60-kg bags worth US$2.4 billion (Ministry of Agriculture/UCDA), surpassing Ethiopia's 7.82 million bags to become Africa's number-one coffee exporter and the continent's largest Robusta producer, with Robusta around 80–85% of output and Uganda among the world's top six to eight producers globally. This is structural rather than cyclical: it rests on more than 1.8 million smallholder households (World Coffee Research/UCDA), indigenous Robusta heritage around Lake Victoria, two annual harvests, a decade of replanting under Operation Wealth Creation, and a coherent National Coffee Policy. Uganda can supply roasters and regional markets at scale today, and intra-African demand — Algeria, Sudan, Morocco, South Africa and Egypt — is a real and growing secondary channel at around 16% of exports.

The honest limits are equally clear. The position is threatened by climate stress on the Arabica highlands and on Robusta yields; by over-concentration that leaves export revenue exposed to global price swings; by the failure so far to move beyond about 5% domestic processing, which caps value capture at the green-bean stage; by EU Deforestation Regulation compliance costs; and by logistics bottlenecks on the Northern Corridor. None of these, however, undermines the fundamental endowment — the constraint bites on value capture and market access, not on Uganda's underlying capacity to grow and supply coffee at continental scale.

Current reality

Uganda is a landlocked East African economy with GDP of US$53.65 billion and GDP per capita of US$1,073 in 2024, and a population of 45,905,417 growing at 2.9 per cent a year. It is a continental-scale supplier of agricultural commodities, coffee above all, with nascent oil, surplus power and a growing but shallow manufacturing base. Raw-material processing remains limited outside cement, gold refining and food processing. Total merchandise exports were approximately US$8 billion in 2024 against a structural trade deficit of around US$5.8 billion, and the export basket has become markedly more concentrated: unwrought gold, unroasted coffee and cocoa beans together accounted for about 81.6 per cent of export revenue in 2024, up from 29.8 per cent in 2017. Around 30 per cent of exports went to African destinations in 2024, principally South Sudan, Kenya and the DRC, buying cement, maize and food products.

Delivery is constrained by geography and logistics. Uganda depends on Kenya's Mombasa port, which handles transit cargo of which roughly 83 per cent is Ugandan, and secondarily on Dar es Salaam; road transit from Mombasa to Kampala takes around fourteen days and more than 90 per cent of corridor freight moves by road. The World Bank Logistics Performance Index recorded an overall score of 2.58 and an infrastructure score of 2.19 in its 2018 edition. The 272 km Malaba-Kampala Standard Gauge Railway contract was signed in October 2024 but financial close remains pending, with construction expected to take 48 months. Generation surplus coexists with low uptake: electricity access, inclusive of off-grid, averages 51.5 per cent nationally, 76.4 per cent urban and 42.4 per cent rural. Of the 600,000 to 700,000 young people entering the labour market annually, investment-promotion projects absorb less than 10 per cent, and government education spending stands at about 2.7 per cent of GDP against an East African Community average of 4.2 per cent.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 24 candidate lines · will change

Uganda’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Uganda’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Uganda will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Uganda’s 24 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 7Emerging 10Aspirational 4Grey 2
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Crude petroleum

1.65bn bbl; first oil H2 2026 · Maturity: Pre-production · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: PAU · 2025

Sugar

Surplus; regional exports · Maturity: Manufactured · Competitiveness: Moderate regional
EMERGING
USD 8.84 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170111Raw cane sugar (excluding added flavouring or colouring)
170112Sugars; beet sugar, raw, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170113Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouri
170114Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing add
170191Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 39.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 997.1 mNigeria USD 981.1 mAlgeria USD 931.8 mSudan USD 796.2 mEgypt USD 728.9 mDjibouti USD 424.9 mSomalia USD 393.7 mKenya USD 391.1 m

Source: URA · 2024

Maize & cereal flours

~2.3Mt; #1 regional surplus supplier · Maturity: Raw + milled · Competitiveness: High regional
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 5.68 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
100510Cereals; maize (corn), seed
100590Cereals; maize (corn), other than seed
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Procuring agency (indicative): NCPB (Kenya), GMB (Zimbabwe), FRA (Zambia) · Strategic Grain Reserve · control: controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Uganda imported USD 9.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 2.47 bnAlgeria USD 1.07 bnMorocco USD 739.3 mTunisia USD 274.4 mKenya USD 164.9 mZimbabwe USD 152 mSenegal USD 136.1 mLibya USD 70.2 m

Source: USDA FAS; Comtrade · 2023/24

Steel (rolled/galvanized)

Roofings/Tembo; Muko ore · Maturity: Rolling (imports billet) · Competitiveness: Moderate regional
EMERGING
USD 3.52 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
721011Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with tin, thickness of 0.5mm or more
721012Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with tin, thickness of less than 0.5mm
721020Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with lead, including terne-plate
721030Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, electrolytically plated or coated with zinc
721041Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, corrugated, plated or coated with zinc (not electrolytically)
721049Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not electrolyti
721050Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with chromium oxides or with chromium and ch
721061Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with aluminium zinc-alloys
721069Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with aluminium, other than plated or coated
721070Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted, varnished or coated with plastics
721090Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with materials n.e.c. in heading no. 7210
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Uganda imported USD 98.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 416.3 mSouth Africa USD 413.4 mEgypt USD 394.2 mGhana USD 304 mAlgeria USD 243.1 mTanzania USD 184.5 mDjibouti USD 177.9 mEthiopia USD 98.7 m

Source: UIA · 2024

Gold (refined)

$3.4bn exports; AGR 219t/yr capacity · Maturity: Refined (largely DRC re-export) · Competitiveness: High
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 1.9 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda your own imports USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Bank of Uganda; USGS · 2024

Cement & clinker

~6Mt capacity vs 3Mt demand; regional exporter · Maturity: Manufactured · Competitiveness: High regional
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 140.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda your own imports USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Tororo/Hima Cement · 2024

Iron ore / DRI

Muko 65-68% Fe; >200Mt hematite · Maturity: Raw (export banned) · Competitiveness: Moderate
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: DGSM; academic · 2012-20

Electric power (hydro surplus)

1,063MW surplus ~93% clean · Maturity: Final electricity · Competitiveness: High regional
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271600Electrical energy
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: ERA · 2024

Dried legumes (beans)

Regional staple trade · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: High regional
EMERGING
USD 1.83 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
071310Vegetables, leguminous; peas (pisum sativum), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071320Vegetables, leguminous; chickpeas (garbanzos), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071331Vegetables, leguminous; beans of the species vigna mungo (l.) hepper or vigna radiata (l.) wilczek, shelled, whether or
071332Vegetables, leguminous; small red (adzuki) beans (phaseolus or vigna angularis), shelled, whether or not skinned or spli
071333Vegetables, leguminous; kidney beans, including white pea beans (phaseolus vulgaris), shelled, whether or not skinned or
071334Vegetables, leguminous; bambara beans (Vigna subterranea or Voandzeia subterranea), shelled, whether or not skinned or s
071335Vegetables, leguminous; cow peas (Vigna unguiculata), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071339Vegetables, leguminous; n.e.c. in item no. 0713.3, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071340Vegetables, leguminous; lentils, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071350Vegetables, leguminous; broad beans (vicia faba var. major) and horse beans (vicia faba var. equina, vicia faba var. min
071360Vegetables, leguminous; pigeon peas (Cajanus cajan), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
071390Vegetables, leguminous; n.e.c. in heading no. 0713, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): OAIC (Algeria) · Food Security · control: monopoly. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Uganda imported USD 16.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 549.1 mAlgeria USD 344 mMorocco USD 180.8 mEthiopia USD 160.6 mSudan USD 108 mDjibouti USD 100.3 mKenya USD 74.4 mSouth Africa USD 38.1 m

Source: Comtrade · 2024

Coffee (green Robusta+Arabica)

Africa #1 exporter 8.4m bags/$2.4bn · Maturity: Mostly green/raw ~5% processed · Competitiveness: High
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 1.13 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090111Coffee; not roasted or decaffeinated
090112Coffee; decaffeinated, not roasted
090121Coffee; roasted, not decaffeinated
090122Coffee; roasted, decaffeinated
090190Coffee; husks and skins, coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 322.4 mEgypt USD 217.4 mSudan USD 151.5 mMorocco USD 148 mSouth Africa USD 99.8 mLibya USD 77.7 mTunisia USD 34.5 mNamibia USD 9.7 m

Source: UCDA/MAAIF; ITC/Comtrade · 2024/25

Tea (black CTC)

Africa #2 exporter; ~80,000t · Maturity: Processed bulk · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 919 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090210Tea, green; (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg
090220Tea, green; (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg
090230Tea, black; (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg
090240Tea, black; (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 310.3 mMorocco USD 187.4 mLibya USD 73.5 mAlgeria USD 72.6 mSouth Africa USD 35.1 mSudan USD 33.4 mMali USD 24.2 mMauritania USD 22.4 m

Source: UBOS/MAAIF · 2023

Tobacco (unmanufactured)

Established export crop · Maturity: Raw/semi · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 630 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
240110Tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped)
240120Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped
240130Tobacco refuse
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 2.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 101.4 mCote dIvoire USD 99.5 mSouth Africa USD 81 mEgypt USD 61.3 mTunisia USD 41.9 mZimbabwe USD 40.7 mMalawi USD 40.5 mMorocco USD 39.3 m

Source: Comtrade · 2024

Sesame seeds

Notable export line · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 337.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120710Oil seeds; palm nuts and kernels, whether or not broken
120720Cotton seeds, whether or not broken
120721Oil seeds; cotton seeds, seed, whether or not broken
120729Oil seeds; cotton seeds, other than seed, whether or not broken
120730Oil seeds; castor oil seeds, whether or not broken
120740Oil seeds; sesamum seeds, whether or not broken
120750Oil seeds; mustard seeds, whether or not broken
120760Oil seeds; safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) seeds, whether or not broken
120770Oil seeds; melon seeds, whether or not broken
120791Oil seeds; poppy seeds, whether or not broken
120799Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; n.e.c. in heading no. 1207, whether or not broken
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 1.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 115.5 mGhana USD 46 mMorocco USD 42.7 mTunisia USD 27 mAlgeria USD 25.5 mKenya USD 19.1 mSouth Africa USD 12.6 mMozambique USD 8 m

Source: Comtrade · 2024

Bananas/matoke

Largest staple; low tradability · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low (perishable)
GREY
USD 297.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080300Bananas, incl. plantains, fresh or dried
080310Fruit, edible; plantains, fresh or dried
080390Fruit, edible; bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 2.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 134.9 mLibya USD 52 mSouth Africa USD 43 mMorocco USD 13.9 mSenegal USD 10.8 mTunisia USD 9.2 mBotswana USD 9.1 mSomalia USD 5 m

Source: FAOSTAT · 2023

Fish maws/swim bladders

High-value niche $200-1000/kg · Maturity: Dried/raw · Competitiveness: Niche (Asia)
EMERGING
USD 251.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030510Fish Flour, Meals & Pellets (For Humans)
030520Fish; livers, roes and milt of fish, dried, smoked, salted or in brine
030530Fish fillets, dried, salted or in brine, not smoked
030531Fish fillets; dried, salted or in brine, but not smoked, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030532Fish fillets; dried, salted or in brine, but not smoked, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macro
030539Fish fillets; dried, salted or in brine, but not smoked, n.e.c. in item no. 0305.3
030541Fish; smoked, whether or not cooked before or during smoking, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, gorbuscha, keta, tsch
030542Fish; smoked, whether or not cooked before or during smoking, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), includes fill
030543Fish; smoked, whether or not cooked before or during smoking, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss/clarki/aguabonita
030544Fish; smoked, whether or not cooked before or during smoking, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads,
030549Fish; smoked, whether or not cooked before or during smoking, n.e.c. in item no. 0305.4, includes fillets, but excludes
030551Fish; dried, whether or not salted but not smoked, other than edible fish offal, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus ma
030552Fish; dried, whether or not salted but not smoked, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030553Fish; dried, whether or not salted but not smoked, fish of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae, other than cod
030554Dried herrings, anchovies, sardines, sardinella, brisling or sprats, mackerel (incl Indian, jack, or horse), seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, cobia, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, swordfish, Kawakawa, bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, spearfish
030559Fish; dried, whether or not salted but not smoked, other than edible fish offal, n.e.c. in item no. 0305.5
030561Fish; salted or in brine, not dried or smoked, other than edible fish offal, herrings (Clupea harengas, Clupea pallasii)
030562Fish; salted or in brine, not dried or smoked, other than edible fish offal, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030563Fish; salted or in brine, not dried or smoked, other than edible fish offal, anchovies (Engrails spp.)
030564Fish; salted or in brine, not dried or smoked, other than edible fish offal, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030569Fish; salted or in brine, not dried or smoked, other than edible fish offal, n.e.c. in item no. 0305.6
030571Fish; edible offal, shark fins
030572Fish; edible offal, fish heads, tails and maws
030579Fish; edible offal, other than shark fins, fish heads, tails and maws
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Uganda imported USD 10 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 96.7 mCongo USD 68 mRwanda USD 13.9 mMorocco USD 10.5 mUganda your own imports USD 10 mAngola USD 10 mTunisia USD 9.5 mDR Congo USD 7.5 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: ISS/ENACT · 2023

Phosphate fertilizer

Sukulu plant 300,000t design · Maturity: Processing (intermittent) · Competitiveness: High regional
EMERGING
USD 237 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
310310Superphosphates (excluding those in tablets or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...
310311Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus pentaoxi
310319Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, other than containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphor
310390Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3103
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Benin USD 76.3 mBurundi USD 60.6 mCote dIvoire USD 29.7 mAlgeria USD 21.7 mGhana USD 16.4 mSouth Africa USD 7.3 mNigeria USD 5.7 mMali USD 3.1 m

Source: MEMD · 2018-23

Fish fillets (Nile perch)

Lake Victoria; EU/regional export · Maturity: Processed fillets · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 124.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030410Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat, whether or not minced
030411Fresh or chilled fillets and other meat whether or not minced" of swordfish "Xiphias gladius"
030419Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat whether or not minced" (excluding swordfish and . . .
030420Frozen fish fillets
030429Frozen fish fillets (excluding swordfish and toothfish)
030431Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030432Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030433Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus)
030439Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, carp (as specified by the WCO), eels (Anguilla spp.), and snakeheads (Channa spp.)
030441Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhyn
030442Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,
030443Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Cithari
030444Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030445Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030446Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030447Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks
030448Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030449Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, other than fish of heading 0304.4
030451Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030452Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, salmonidae
030453Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030454Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030455Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030457Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030459Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of fish n.e.c. in item no. 0304.5
030461Fish fillets; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030462Fish fillets; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030463Fish fillets; frozen, Nile Perch (Lates niloticus)
030469Fish fillets; frozen, carp (Cyprinus/Carassius/Ctenopharyngodon idellus/Hypophthalmichthys/Cirrhinus/Mylopharyngodon piceus/Catla catla/Labeo/Osteochilus hasselti/Leptobarbus hoeveni/Megalobrama), eels (Anguilla) and snakeheads (Channa)
030471Fish fillets; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030472Fish fillets; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030473Fish fillets; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030474Fish fillets; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030475Fish fillets; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030479Fish fillets; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, and Alaska pollock
030481Fish fillets; frozen, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha, Oncorhynchus kisutch, Oncorhynchus masou, Oncorhynchus rhodurus), Atlantic (Salmo salar), and Danube (Hucho hucho)
030482Fish fillets; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae, Oncorhynchus apache and Oncorhynchus chrysogaster)
030483Fish fillets; frozen, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Citharidae)
030484Fish fillets; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030485Fish fillets; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030486Fish fillets; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii)
030487Fish fillets; frozen, tunas (of the genus Thunnus), skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis)
030488Fish fillets; frozen, dogfish, other sharks, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030489Fish fillets; frozen, of fish n.e.c. in heading 0304.8
030490Frozen fish meat, whether or not minced (excluding fillets)
030491Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030492Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030493Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030494Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030495Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae, other than Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030496Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, dogfish and other sharks
030497Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030499Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0304.9
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Uganda imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 36.1 mSouth Africa USD 35 mAlgeria USD 14.5 mMauritius USD 9.6 mMorocco USD 4.9 mCabo Verde USD 2.7 mRwanda USD 2.2 mKenya USD 1.8 m

Source: Directorate of Fisheries · 2023

Hides & skins/leather

Livestock base · Maturity: Raw/semi · Competitiveness: Low-moderate
EMERGING
USD 112.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
410110Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing <= 8 kg when dried, <= 10 kg when dry-salted and . . .
410120Raw hides and skins; whole, unsplit, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin not exceeding 8kg when simply dri
410121Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing > 14 kg, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired . . .
410122Raw butts and bends of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split
410129Raw hides and skins of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split . . .
410150Hides and skins; raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg
410190Hides and skins; other than whole, but including butts, bends and bellies, of bovine (including. buffalo) and equine ani
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 3.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 93.1 mEgypt USD 7.4 mGhana USD 5.1 mUganda your own imports USD 3.5 mKenya USD 1.4 mTunisia USD 1.2 mBenin USD 0.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: UBOS · 2024

Cocoa beans

72,545t/$620m; #1 East Africa · Maturity: Raw beans · Competitiveness: Growing
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda your own imports USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Bank of Uganda; Comtrade · 2024/25

Vermiculite/industrial minerals

Historic ~1% world output · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low
GREY
USD 35.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
253010Vermiculite, perlite and chlorites; unexpanded
253020Kieserite, epsomite (natural magnesium sulphates)
253040Natural micaceous iron oxides
253090Mineral substances; n.e.c. in chapter 25
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 12.6 mSouth Africa USD 5.6 mMorocco USD 5 mAlgeria USD 3.2 mGhana USD 2.6 mNigeria USD 1.5 mTunisia USD 1.2 mZimbabwe USD 0.6 m

Source: USGS · 2017-18

Cut flowers/roses

Horticulture export via Entebbe air · Maturity: Fresh · Competitiveness: Moderate global
EMERGING
USD 30.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
060310Fresh cut flowers and flower buds, for bouquets or for ornamental purposes
060311Flowers, cut; roses, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh
060312Flowers, cut; carnations, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh
060313Flowers, cut; orchids, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh
060314Flowers, cut; chrysanthemums, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh
060315Flowers, cut; lilies (Lilium spp.), flowers and flower buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fres
060319Flowers, cut; flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh, other than roses, carnatio
060390Flowers, cut; flowers and flower buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, dried, dyed, bleached, imp
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 9.8 mEgypt USD 3.8 mSouth Africa USD 3.6 mMauritius USD 2 mMorocco USD 1.8 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mNamibia USD 1.4 mBotswana USD 1 m

Source: Comtrade · 2024

Vanilla

~604t; cited world #2 natural vanilla · Maturity: Cured/raw · Competitiveness: Niche global
EMERGING
USD 22 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090500Vanilla
090510Spices; vanilla, neither crushed nor ground
090520Spices; vanilla, crushed or ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius USD 17.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.2 mMadagascar USD 0.9 mTunisia USD 0.9 mUganda your own imports USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.3 mSudan USD 0.2 mNigeria USD 0.2 m

Uganda is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Comtrade/WITS; MAAIF · 2024

Cobalt/copper

Kilembe deposits dormant · Maturity: None (dormant) · Competitiveness: High (battery)
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 8.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
810520Cobalt; mattes and other intermediate products of cobalt metallurgy, unwrought cobalt, powders
810530Cobalt; waste and scrap
810590Cobalt; articles n.e.c. in heading no. 8105
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 5.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.5 mMorocco USD 0.9 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mEgypt USD 0.1 mAngola USD 0.1 mGhana USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS · 2017-18

Rare earth elements

Makuutu; >500Mt claimed · Maturity: Pre-development · Competitiveness: High global
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 5.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
284610Cerium compounds
284690Compounds, inorganic or organic (excluding cerium), of rare-earth metals, of yttrium, scandium or of mixtures of these m
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Uganda imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 5.5 mEgypt USD 0.1 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: UCMP · 2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Uganda is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Uganda buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Uganda is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 11.76 bn

Uganda’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

24

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierUganda imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Gold (refined)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 1.9 bnUSD 2.99 bn
Cement & clinkerSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 140.3 mUSD 2.9 bn
Steel (rolled/galvanized)EMERGINGUSD 98.6 mUSD 3.52 bn
SugarEMERGINGUSD 39.1 mUSD 8.84 bn
Dried legumes (beans)EMERGINGUSD 16.5 mUSD 1.83 bn
Fish maws/swim bladdersEMERGINGUSD 10 mUSD 251.6 m
Maize & cereal floursSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 9.8 mUSD 5.68 bn
Electric power (hydro surplus)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 4 mUSD 2.24 bn
Hides & skins/leatherEMERGINGUSD 3.5 mUSD 112.6 m
Coffee (green Robusta+Arabica)CONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 3 mUSD 1.13 bn
Tobacco (unmanufactured)EMERGINGUSD 2.1 mUSD 630 m
Bananas/matokeGREYUSD 2.1 mUSD 297.6 m
Sesame seedsEMERGINGUSD 1.3 mUSD 337.6 m
VanillaEMERGINGUSD 0.7 mUSD 22 m

Left-hand column: what Uganda itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Uganda’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 24 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Uganda’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Uganda. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Uganda’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Uganda’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 8.41 bn
02South AfricaUSD 6.6 bn
03AlgeriaUSD 4.06 bn
04Cote dIvoireUSD 3.29 bn
05MoroccoUSD 3.07 bn
06UgandaUSD 2.05 bn
07NigeriaUSD 1.28 bn
08TunisiaUSD 1.2 bn
09SenegalUSD 1.1 bn
10SudanUSD 1.09 bn
11GhanaUSD 834.3 m
12LibyaUSD 832.9 m
13DjiboutiUSD 703.3 m
14KenyaUSD 702.7 m
15Burkina FasoUSD 401.2 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Uganda. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Uganda would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Uganda to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Coffee value capture and compliance

Uganda must sustain output above 8 million bags under climate stress, lift domestic processing well above the current ~5% to capture roasting and soluble value, and meet EU Deforestation Regulation and quality certification; intra-African supply further needs AfCFTA tariff implementation and regional roasting demand to materialise.

02

Reliable, lower-cost logistics

Either Standard Gauge Railway financial close and construction, or metre-gauge rehabilitation, must deliver dependable Northern Corridor freight to replace the over-90% road dependence and ~14-day transit that erode export margins.

03

Firm power-export infrastructure

Cross-border interconnectors and firm power-purchase agreements (for example with Kenya) must be completed, hydrological reliability maintained and transmission financed to convert the 1,063 MW surplus into sustained exports.

04

Oil delivered and refined

EACOP and the central processing facilities must complete on schedule for first oil in H2 2026, the 60,000 bbl/day refinery must actually be financed and built (currently no earlier than ~2030), and oil revenues governed transparently.

05

Cement and steel input security

Clinker and billet supply security must be maintained while domestic limestone and Muko iron ore are developed to reduce import dependence in the steel chain.

06

Bankable mineral development

Bankable JORC/NI43-101 reserves for cobalt, copper, rare earths and iron must be defined, power and rail extended to deposits, processing investment secured, and dormant assets such as Kilembe and land disputes resolved.

The binding constraints
·

Landlocked geography Uganda depends totally on Kenya's Mombasa (at least 83% of Ugandan transit) and Tanzania's Dar es Salaam, with a roughly 14-day road transit that raises logistics costs and erodes export margins on every flagship commodity.

·

Logistics and rail gap The Standard Gauge Railway is not yet built and financial close is pending, leaving over 90% of corridor freight on congested roads; the 2018 World Bank LPI score was 2.58 overall and 2.19 on infrastructure.

·

The power paradox A generation surplus of 1,063 MW (December 2024) coexists with transmission and distribution weaknesses and low electrification (51.5% nationally, 42.4% rural) that limit industrial uptake, while the 52,000 MW-by-2040 target is aspirational.

·

Capital and finance dependence Manufacturing and mining rely heavily on Chinese and Gulf financing, and projects stop and start — the Sukulu phosphate plant was shut from 2021 to 2023 and the Kilembe copper-cobalt mine remains dormant.

·

Skills deficit Of 600,000–700,000 annual labour-market entrants, investment projects absorb less than 10%; tertiary participation is low, with only around 1 in 20 attending university and education spending just 2.7% of GDP against the EAC average of 4.2%.

·

Governance and concentration risk Corruption, land-acquisition disputes, gold-sourcing and sanctions exposure (OFAC sanctioned the African Gold Refinery and Alain Goetz on 17 March 2022) and weak fisheries enforcement threaten delivery credibility, while three products making up 81.6% of exports amplify commodity-price and single-market shocks.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Uganda’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Landlocked geography sets a hard floor under delivered cost. Uganda depends totally on Mombasa, which carries at least 83 per cent Ugandan transit cargo, and on Dar es Salaam, with road transit of around fourteen days. High logistics costs erode export margins on every consignment.

05

The rail solution is contracted but not financed. The Standard Gauge Railway is not yet built and financial close remains pending, with talks continuing with the Islamic Development Bank; more than 90 per cent of corridor freight moves on congested roads. The Logistics Performance Index overall score was 2.58 in the 2018 edition.

06

The power surplus does not yet reach industry. A generation surplus of 1,063 MW existed in December 2024, but transmission and distribution weaknesses and low electrification, at 51.5 per cent nationally and 42.4 per cent rural, limit industrial uptake. The 52,000 MW by 2040 target is aspirational.

07

Capital is external and projects stop and start. Manufacturing and mining rely heavily on Chinese and Gulf financing. The Sukulu phosphate plant was shut between 2021 and 2023 and Kilembe remains dormant, illustrating how readily committed capacity lapses.

08

Skills absorption is the binding human constraint. Of 600,000 to 700,000 annual labour-market entrants, investment projects absorb less than 10 per cent, leaving most in low-quality or informal work. Tertiary participation is low, with roughly one in twenty attending university, and education spending is 2.7 per cent of GDP.

09

Governance and sourcing integrity threaten delivery credibility. Corruption, land-acquisition disputes including at Sukulu, gold-sourcing and sanctions exposure, and weak fisheries enforcement against overfishing are all recorded as recurring frictions.

10

Concentration amplifies every shock. Three products account for 81.6 per cent of exports, up from 29.8 per cent in 2017. Commodity-price and single-market shocks pass through to national revenue with little buffer.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Uganda's Draft 1 bundle rests on what the audit can evidence at Tier-1 today: coffee as the continental anchor, with cocoa, tea, Nile perch fillets, maize, cement and surplus hydroelectric power as strong contenders, all of them agricultural or agro-adjacent save cement and electricity. It does not rest on the oil, iron ore, cobalt, copper or rare earths, which the audit classes as aspirational, pre-production or dormant and expressly directs be treated as endowment-based potential rather than current supply capacity. What must be proven is threefold. First, that domestic processing can rise materially above roughly 5 per cent for coffee, so that supply into the continent carries value rather than only volume. Second, that logistics can be made reliable and cheaper, through Standard Gauge Railway financial close and construction or through metre-gauge rehabilitation. Third, that the 1,063 MW power surplus can be delivered to industrial users through firm interconnectors and purchase agreements rather than remaining a statistic on the generation side of the ledger. Uganda's endowment is not in doubt; its conversion into finished, deliverable goods is precisely what remains to be demonstrated.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Uganda is shown 24 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Uganda to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2