Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
TogoBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Togo — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
14
Draft 1 candidate lines for Togo
The Minister’s brief · for Essowè Georges Barcola · Togo
Minister Barcola, Togo already makes what West Africa cannot supply itself. At Tabligbo, the Scantogo kiln turns Bangeli limestone into 1.5 million tonnes of clinker a year, built for USD 250 million to feed grinding mills in Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana in place of overseas cargo, and Lomé — West Africa's only natural deep-water port, dredged to 18.6 metres, and sub-Saharan Africa's only entry in Lloyd's global Top 100 — carries it to the market. In a clinker-deficient region, that is rare: proven, moving, defensible. Africa's cement market reached USD 8.7 billion in 2025, and this clinker is Togo's disciplined claim on it. The Right of Supply gives Togo a twenty-five-year first right to serve that demand, governed by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract; you hold it only while you meet the market. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. Your correction, Minister, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Togo
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Essowè Georges Barcola, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Togo · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Barcola,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Togo — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Togo is in this room

Togo's strongest demonstrated endowment is cement clinker. The Scantogo plant at Tabligbo, with capacity of 1.5 million tonnes a year, built at USD 250 million and inaugurated in 2015, was constructed explicitly to supply HeidelbergCement grinding mills in Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana in place of overseas clinker imports, and it draws on WACEM limestone at Bangeli running at 2.4 million tonnes a year. Delivery is carried by the Port of Lome, West Africa's only natural deep-water port, dredged to 18.6 metres, which handled 2.06 million TEU and 30.64 million tonnes of cargo in 2024 and is the only sub-Saharan African port in the global Top 100. The honest constraint is energy and concentration: clinker is energy-intensive while Togolese power is scarce, costly and import-dependent, at 217 kWh per capita in 2023 with the majority of electricity imported, and the capability rests on a single firm rather than on sovereign industrial capacity.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Togo, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Togo

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
14draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Togo’s draft bundle. 14 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Cement clinker, Portland cement, Phosphate rock / calcium phosphates. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 3 strong contender · 7 emerging · 2 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Togo is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 14 candidate lines proposed for Togo below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Togo. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Togo will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Togo will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
14 lines
Togo’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Togo at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Togo’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Togo’s own capability audit.

Phosphate fertilisers (DAP, MAP, SSP, TSP)

The audit classifies this as aspirational with no operating plant. Togo signed a 2023 agreement with Morocco's OCP Group to build a phosphate fertiliser plant, but this is announced, not operational, and there is no domestic phosphoric-acid or fertiliser plant operating as at 2024.

Aspirational · no operating plant

Phosphate rock as a finished-value claim

Togo is a top-four global exporter of calcium phosphates at USD 434 million in 2022, but the audit records that it sells essentially raw or lightly processed rock and captures little value. The continental fertiliser prize is best captured as finished product, which Togo does not yet make.

Capability inversion · raw base vs finished good

Beauty and make-up preparations, and articles for packaging

These lines show revealed comparative advantage above one and appear among top exports at 5.5 per cent and 6.1 per cent in 2023, but the audit judges them most plausibly re-export or light-assembly artefacts of the Lome free zone rather than deep domestic capability, and directs that they be treated cautiously.

Re-export artefact

Gold and diamond

The audit records these as largely artisanal, with reported gold exports predominantly transit or re-export from neighbouring states, an explicit caveat carried in the USGS Minerals Yearbook.

Transit and re-export

Manganese as a continental supply category

Production began only in mid-2025 and is exported as raw 38 per cent Mn ore. The audit states that for manganese to matter continentally it would need downstream alloying into ferromanganese, which is not currently planned, and that demand is largely extra-African. Production-start figures are very recent and should be treated as indicative until confirmed by USGS or EITI.

Raw base · industrial screen

Iron ore from Bassar

The audit rates this GREY. MM Mining S.A. holds capacity of 85,000 tonnes a year with roughly 60,000 tonnes gross weight at about 30 per cent Fe content, described as marginal and low grade, with continental demand assessed as low.

Scale-matching · low grade
08 · Endowment
What Togo actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Togo. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Togo's continental supply advantage rests not on the size of any single endowment but on three assets. The first is a state-owned phosphate industry: 30 million tonnes of reserves confirmed by the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, a figure unchanged across the 2024, 2025 and 2026 editions, with production of 1,560 thousand tonnes in 2024 and 1,610 thousand tonnes in 2023. The producer is the state-owned Societe Nouvelle des Phosphates du Togo, with mines at Hahotoe and Akoumape in the Maritime Region and a processing plant at Kpeme; EITI Togo records 1,541,772 tonnes in 2022. The second is an integrated limestone, clinker and cement complex. Scantogo Mines S.A., wholly owned by HeidelbergCement with a 10 per cent Togolese government stake noted at inauguration, operates a greenfield clinker plant at Tabligbo with capacity of 1.5 million tonnes a year, or 5,000 tonnes a day, built at a cost of USD 250 million and inaugurated in March 2015. It was explicitly constructed to supply clinker to HeidelbergCement grinding mills in Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana, replacing overseas clinker imports. CIMTOGO operates grinding plants at Lome and Awandjelo in Kara with roughly 750,000 tonnes of cement and 250,000 tonnes of clinker capacity; WACEM operates a 1,200,000-tonne clinker plant at Tabligbo and a limestone quarry at Bangeli in the Kara Region with capacity of 2,400,000 tonnes a year.

The third asset is the Port of Lome, West Africa's only natural deep-water port, with a channel dredged to 18.6 metres at a cost of EUR 7.5 million, enabling vessels of 19,000 to 24,000 TEU. It handled 2.06 million TEU in 2024, up 8 per cent from 1.9 million in 2023, and ranked 92nd on Lloyd's List 2025, the only port in sub-Saharan Africa to feature in the global Top 100. Total cargo reached 30.64 million tonnes in 2024, up from 30.09 million in 2023, with transshipment rising 7.11 per cent to 20.23 million tonnes. Lome surpassed Lagos in 2017 to become West Africa's busiest port. The Lome Container Terminal operates under a 35-year concession held by TiL, part of MSC, with China Merchants, offering capacity of about 2.2 million TEU and crane productivity of roughly 32.5 moves an hour, above African and global norms. The port is the gateway for landlocked Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and northern Nigeria, and this transit role is the mechanism that makes Togo a deliverability outlier within West Africa.

Beyond these, the endowment base includes manganese at Nayega in the Savanes Region, with mineral resources of 13.97 million tonnes grading 12.4 per cent Mn and ore reserves of 8.48 million tonnes grading 14 per cent Mn, where the state-owned Societe Togolaise de Manganese began production in mid-2025 at roughly 4,000 tonnes a month, targeting 8,000 tonnes a month. Agriculture shows one genuine growth line: soybean production rose roughly twelvefold from 25,000 tonnes in 2015 to about 300,000 tonnes in 2022, with export value rising from about USD 0.7 million in 2015 to about USD 60 million in 2023, and Togo became the first country to export certified organic soybeans to the European Union, at yields of about 3 tonnes a hectare, among West Africa's best. Togo's Economic Complexity Index rank is 103rd of 145 in 2024, improved from 108th in 2012, described by the Harvard Growth Lab as slightly more complex than expected for its income level, with a growth projection of about 3.1 per cent a year to 2034. Its strongest revealed comparative advantages lie in calcium phosphates, where Togo was the fourth-largest global exporter at USD 434 million in 2022, and in cement and clinker as a regional exporter.

The endowment in depth

Togo's mineral endowment is anchored by phosphate rock, whose reserves USGS fixes at 30 million tonnes — a figure held identical across the Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024, 2025 and 2026 editions. Production ran at 1,560 thousand tonnes in 2024 and 1,610 thousand tonnes in 2023, worked by the state-owned Société Nouvelle des Phosphates du Togo (SNPT) from mines at Hahotoé and Akoumapé in the Maritime Region, with the processing plant at Kpémé; EITI Togo records 1,541,772 tonnes in 2022. National and secondary sources cite higher reserve numbers (around 60 Mt via Arise IIP, above 80 Mt via the Centre pour la Justice Environnementale), but the audit treats the USGS 30 Mt figure as the Tier-1 anchor and reads the larger numbers as conflating resources with reserves; the rock is exported essentially raw, with no domestic phosphoric-acid or fertilizer plant operating in 2024. Beyond phosphate, the audit records WACEM limestone capacity of 2,400,000 t/yr at Bangeli in the Kara Region; the Nayega manganese project in Savanes (mineral resources 13.97 Mt grading 12.4% Mn, ore reserves 8.48 Mt grading 14% Mn), where the state-owned Société Togolaise de Manganèse began production mid-2025 at about 4,000 t/month targeting 8,000 t/month, exporting raw 38% Mn ore; the MM Mining iron-ore operation at Bassar (85,000 t/yr capacity, roughly 30% Fe, judged marginal and low grade); and marble at Pomar Togo's Pagala quarry (1,000,000 t/yr) with a Lomé processing plant. Gold and diamond are largely artisanal, with reported gold exports predominantly transit or re-export from neighbours; bauxite, chromite, rutile, zinc, gypsum and kaolin are identified but undeveloped.

Energy is the endowment's structural weakness. Togo has no oil or gas production, no reserves and no refining. Installed thermal capacity is roughly 260 MW across about seven plants, the largest being the ContourGlobal tri-fuel plant (100 MW, operational 2010); the Kékéli Efficient Power plant (Eranove) adds 65 MW of combined-cycle gas in the Lomé port area at about 532 GWh/yr, and the Blitta / Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed solar plant (AMEA Power) began at 30 MWp and is expanding toward 50–70 MW, within a total solar base of about 57 MW (2023). Togo imports the majority of its electricity from Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria; access rose from 50% in 2020 to 68% in 2023, but per-capita consumption is only 217 kWh (2023) — extremely low, and the audit's stated gate on any energy-intensive beneficiation. On this base sits a modest industrial economy: manufacturing value added of about USD 1.03 billion (2022), manufacturing near 13% of GDP and industry including construction about 20.2% of GDP (2023), dominated by mining, quarrying and food processing. The standout is the integrated cement complex — Scantogo Mines (HeidelbergCement, with a 10% government stake noted at inauguration) operating a greenfield clinker plant at Tabligbo of 1.5 Mt/yr (5,000 t/day), built for USD 250 million and inaugurated in March 2015, alongside CIMTOGO grinding at Lomé and Awandjelo/Kara (about 750,000 t cement / 250,000 t clinker), a WACEM 1,200,000 t clinker plant at Tabligbo, and Fortia/Diamond Cement. The Plateforme Industrielle d'Adétikopé (PIA), launched 2021 on 400 ha 15 km north of Lomé as a PPP with ARISE IIP (the Olam / Africa Finance Corporation joint venture), adds soybean processing (with MIFA), cotton ginning and textile training, teak and wood processing and a dry port, with XOF 60 billion secured for soybean processing.

Agriculture is where the fastest genuine gains sit. Soybean production rose roughly twelve-fold from 25,000 t (2015) to about 300,000 t (2022), with export value climbing from about USD 0.7 million (2015) to about USD 60 million (2023); Togo became the first country to export certified organic soybeans to the EU, at yields near 3 t/ha, among West Africa's best. Cotton, by contrast, is in decline — output of about 127,500 t (2018) has given way as farmers shift to soy, with lint export value down 32.1% to CFA19.1 bn in 2023 and volume down 27% to 16,511 t. Cocoa raw-bean export revenue surged 54.7% to CFA16.7 bn in 2023 on volume of about 13,000 t. Cereal production hit a record 1.5 Mt in 2023–24 (maize about 886,630 t in 2018–19), and Togo is the 7th-largest shea producer at roughly 20,000–25,000 t kernels/yr, alongside cassava (about 1 Mt), coffee, palm oil, pineapple and cashew — but processing is thin across the board.

Human capital is the softer constraint behind the infrastructure strength. The labour force is about 3.25 million (2023), with a Human Capital Index of 0.43 — meaning children will be 43% as productive as their potential — in a largely informal economy where ILO-modelled unemployment of about 1.9% (2023) reflects informality rather than quality jobs; the TVET base is thin, leaning on employer-led islands such as PIA's Garment Training Centres and LCT's on-site terminal training. The offsetting asset is the Port of Lomé, West Africa's only natural deep-water port, its channel dredged to 18.6 m (via €7.5M works) to take 19,000–24,000 TEU mega-vessels and described as the only regional port able to handle third-generation container vessels. It handled 2.06 million TEUs in 2024 (up 8% from 1.9M in 2023), ranking 92nd on Lloyd's List 2025 — the only sub-Saharan African port in the global Top 100 — moving total cargo of 30.64M tonnes with transshipment up 7.11% to 20.23M tonnes, having surpassed Lagos in 2017 to become West Africa's busiest. The Lomé Container Terminal runs on a 35-year concession operated by TiL (MSC) with China Merchants, at about 2.2M TEU capacity and crane productivity near 32.5 moves/hr, inside an ECOWAS-recognised free trade zone; as gateway for landlocked Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and northern Nigeria, with road and rail corridors to Ouagadougou, it is the mechanism that makes Togo a deliverability outlier.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Togo's Economic Complexity Index ranks 103rd of 145 in 2024, up from 108th in 2012 — a slow upward trajectory that Harvard's Growth Lab describes as "slightly more complex than expected" for the country's income level, with a growth projection of about 3.1%/yr to 2034. The audit flags that the exact numeric ECI value is not published on the Atlas profile page; only the rank and trajectory are firm. The strongest revealed comparative advantages are in calcium phosphates — where Togo was the 4th-largest global exporter at USD 434M in 2022 (OEC), with unground rock (HS 251010) at USD 215M — and in cement and clinker as a regional exporter, with soybeans and soybean meal showing the fastest-growing genuine RCA on the back of organic certification and EU/India market access. Cotton and re-exported/packaged goods also register above unity.

The audit is deliberately cautious about two RCA lines. The "beauty/make-up preparations" and "articles for packaging" export categories are most plausibly re-export or light-assembly artifacts of the Lomé free zone rather than deep domestic capability, and should be treated as such rather than as evidence of manufacturing depth. On the forward view, the feasible diversification adjacencies the Atlas framework implies for Togo cluster around downstream phosphate chemistry (fertilizers), agro-processing (soybean oil and meal, cotton textiles) and construction-materials value chains — each consistent with an endowment the country already holds, which is what makes the complexity read coherent rather than aspirational.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Cement clinker (HS 2523, especially 2523 10) is Togo's single most defensible continental supply position because it is the only category that satisfies every test in the analytical lens at once. The input base is substantial local limestone — WACEM at 2,400,000 t/yr at Bangeli. The processing position is already intermediate-to-finished: the Scantogo greenfield clinker plant at Tabligbo runs 1.5 Mt/yr (5,000 t/day), was built for USD 250 million and inaugurated in 2015, backed by CIMTOGO grinding of about 750,000 t. Its competitiveness is structural rather than assumed — the plant was built precisely because clinker from local limestone is cheaper than overseas imports, and HeidelbergCement configured it as a regional supply node. Deliverability is already demonstrated: clinker moves from Tabligbo to HeidelbergCement grinding mills in Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana, while Lomé's deep-water port (18.6 m channel, 2.06M TEU in 2024) and the Burkina corridor give Togo unmatched West African reach. The demand is real and structural: Africa's cement market is expected to grow 8.1% annually to reach USD 8.7 billion in 2025 (ResearchAndMarkets), and West Africa is clinker-deficient owing to limited regional limestone, forcing the heavy import reliance that this capability substitutes for.

The honest limits are equally clear. Clinker is energy-intensive and Togo's power is scarce, costly and import-dependent, so kiln economics rest on captive or imported fuel that the grid does not reliably provide. The capability is single-firm dependent on HeidelbergCement, which makes it a corporate rather than a sovereign asset — its expansion is a boardroom decision, not a national one. And larger regional players, notably Dangote and Ciments du Sahel, are expanding aggressively and could out-scale Togo. The runner-up positions frame the trade-off: on phosphate, Togo is a top-4 global exporter with 30 Mt of USGS reserves but sells essentially raw and captures little value, since the continental fertilizer prize is best captured as finished product Togo does not yet make; and the Port of Lomé is a genuine best-in-region capability but a service, outside the goods-based allocation matrix, that substitutes for intra-African friction rather than offshore imports.

Current reality

Togo is a small, low-income West African coastal economy with GDP of USD 9.93 billion in 2024 and a population of roughly 8.5 million. Manufacturing value added is about USD 1.03 billion, manufacturing accounts for roughly 13 per cent of GDP, and industry including construction for about 20.2 per cent of GDP in 2023, dominated by mining, quarrying and food processing. Energy is a serious gate. There is no oil or gas production, no reserves and no refining. Thermal capacity is roughly 260 MW installed across about seven plants, the largest being the ContourGlobal tri-fuel plant at 100 MW, alongside the 65 MW Kekeli Efficient Power combined-cycle gas plant in the Lome port area producing about 532 GWh a year, and total solar capacity of about 57 MW in 2023 including the Blitta plant. Togo imports the majority of its electricity from Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. Electricity access rose from 50 per cent in 2020 to 68 per cent in 2023, but per-capita consumption stands at only 217 kWh, an extremely low figure. Power is scarce, costly and import-dependent, and this undermines any energy-intensive beneficiation such as phosphoric acid production or smelting in the absence of dedicated captive generation.

The human capital base is thin. The labour force is roughly 3.25 million, the Human Capital Index stands at 0.43, meaning children will be 43 per cent as productive as their full potential, and the economy is largely informal, with ILO-modelled unemployment of about 1.9 per cent in 2023 reflecting informality rather than quality jobs. The technical and vocational training base is thin, with the Plateforme Industrielle d'Adetikope operating on-site garment training centres and the Lome Container Terminal running an on-site terminal training centre, which are narrow, employer-led skill clusters rather than a broad industrial skills base. The Plateforme Industrielle d'Adetikope itself, launched in 2021 across 400 hectares as a public-private partnership between Togo and ARISE IIP, 15 kilometres north of Lome, hosts soybean processing plants with MIFA, cotton ginning and textile training centres, teak and wood processing and a dry port, with XOF 60 billion secured by government for soybean processing. It is operational but early-stage. Overall confidence in the audit is moderate to good, with the phosphate and clinker pillars firm and the agro-processing and fertiliser lines treated as announced or emerging rather than operational.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 14 candidate lines · will change

Togo’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Togo’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Togo will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Togo’s 14 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 3Emerging 7Aspirational 2Grey 2
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Soybean oil & meal

PIA crushing plants (with MIFA) · Maturity: Emerging · Competitiveness: Moderate–High — Africa imports oil & meal
EMERGING
USD 4.04 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
150710Vegetable oils; soya-bean oil and its fractions, crude, whether or not degummed, not chemically modified
150790Vegetable oils; soya-bean oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
230400Oil-cake and other solid residues; whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soy
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 1.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 991.2 mEgypt USD 859.9 mAlgeria USD 638.6 mZimbabwe USD 244.5 mMauritania USD 179.3 mCote dIvoire USD 105.4 mSouth Africa USD 104 mTunisia USD 102.6 m

Source: PIA Togo · 2022

Phosphate fertilizers (DAP/MAP/SSP)

Phosphate feedstock + OCP 2023 plant agreement · Maturity: Aspirational — no operating plant · Competitiveness: Very High — SSA fertilizer ~90% imported, ~USD 3.9 bn (2020)
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 3.44 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
310310Superphosphates (excluding those in tablets or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...
310311Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus pentaoxi
310319Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, other than containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphor
310390Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3103
310510Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; in tablets or similar forms or in packages of a gross weight not exceeding 10kg
310520Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
310530Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)
310540Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate (monoammonium phosphate) and mixtures thereof with d
310551Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing nitrates and phosphates
310559Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the two fertilizing elements nitrogen and phosphorus, other than nitrates a
310560Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the two fertilizing elements phosphorus and potassium
310590Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; n.e.c. in heading no. 3105
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): Ministry of Agriculture · Input Subsidy Programs · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Togo imported USD 39.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ethiopia USD 699.4 mKenya USD 275.9 mZambia USD 217.8 mTanzania USD 217.7 mCote dIvoire USD 178.2 mEgypt USD 172.9 mMalawi USD 170.1 mSouth Africa USD 169.1 m

Source: Fondation FARM/Ecofin; World Bank; Statista/ResourceTrade · 2023/2022/2020

Soybeans

~300,000 t (2022); organic-certified; PIA processing · Maturity: Raw bean · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 2.93 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120100Soya beans, whether or not broken
120110Soya beans; seed, whether or not broken
120190Soya beans; other than seed, whether or not broken
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 71.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.7 bnAlgeria USD 770 mTunisia USD 319.2 mTogo your own imports USD 71.1 mMorocco USD 21.6 mZimbabwe USD 13.8 mTanzania USD 11.5 mRwanda USD 4.5 m

Togo is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: EIF/UNCTAD; Togo First · 2023

Cement clinker

Limestone reserves + 1.5 Mt/yr Scantogo clinker plant exporting to Benin/Burkina/Ghana; deep-water port · Maturity: Intermediate (clinker) · Competitiveness: High — Africa cement market ~USD 8.7 bn; W. Africa clinker-deficit
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 39.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: USGS MYB Togo; HeidelbergCement/CemNet; ResearchAndMarkets · 2019/2015/2025

Portland cement

CIMTOGO grinding ~750,000 t; regional grinding network · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: High — import substitution prize
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 39.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: USGS MYB Togo · 2019

Iron ore

Bassar ~30% Fe, 85,000 t/yr capacity · Maturity: Raw, low grade · Competitiveness: Low
GREY
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MYB Togo · 2019

Cotton textiles / garments

PIA vertically-integrated textile zone + garment training · Maturity: Aspirational/early · Competitiveness: High — apparel imports large
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 924.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520811Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520812Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not
520813Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twil
520819Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.1, weighing no
520821Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520822Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not mo
520823Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill,
520829Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.2, weighing not
520831Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520832Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more t
520833Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill, wei
520839Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.3 weighing not more
520841Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520842Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more than 200g/m2
520843Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill, weighing not more than 200g/m2
520849Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.4, weighing not more than 200g/m2
520851Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520852Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more than 200g/m2
520853Woven fabrics of cotton, containing >= 85% cotton by weight and weighing <= 200 g/m², in three-thread...
520859Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.5, weighing not more than 200g/m2
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 47.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 247.2 mTunisia USD 145.5 mGhana USD 84.2 mGuinea USD 48 mTogo your own imports USD 47.5 mSouth Africa USD 46.4 mMadagascar USD 34.3 mSudan USD 33.4 m

Togo is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: ARISE IIP/PIA · 2021

Cotton lint

~127,500 t (2018); NSCT ginning; PIA textile vertical · Maturity: Raw lint / early ginning · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520100Cotton; not carded or combed
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: BCEAO/Togo First; PIA · 2023

Shea (kernels/butter)

7th-largest producer; women-led · Maturity: Raw kernel; limited butter · Competitiveness: Low–Moderate
EMERGING
USD 357.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
151511Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151519Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151521Vegetable oils; maize (corn) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151529Vegetable oils; maize (corn) oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modifie
151530Vegetable oils; castor oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151540Tung oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151550Vegetable oils; sesame oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151560Vegetable oils; microbial fats and oils and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151590Fixed vegetable fats and oils and their fractions n.e.c. in heading 1515; other than linseed, maize (corn), castor, sesa
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 90.9 mEgypt USD 49.3 mTunisia USD 44 mDjibouti USD 29.5 mGambia USD 24.3 mTanzania USD 20 mSudan USD 19.5 mCameroon USD 9.3 m

Source: EIF/DTIS · 2017

Marble / dimension stone

Pomar Togo quarry + Lomé plant · Maturity: Raw + some processing · Competitiveness: Low–Moderate
GREY
USD 122.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251511Marble and travertine; having a specific gravity of 2.5 or more, crude or roughly trimmed by sawing or otherwise, into b
251512Marble and travertine; merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shap
251520Ecaussine and other calcareous monumental or building stone; alabaster, having a specific gravity of 2.5 or more

Togo imported USD 0.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 79.8 mAlgeria USD 18.9 mTunisia USD 8.7 mMorocco USD 4.3 mLibya USD 3.4 mGhana USD 1.5 mEswatini USD 1.1 mTogo your own imports USD 0.8 m

Togo is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: USGS MYB Togo · 2019

Limestone / aggregates

WACEM 2.4 Mt/yr limestone · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 92.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251710Pebbles, gravel, broken or crushed stone; of a kind commonly used for concrete aggregates, for road metalling or for rai
251720Macadam of slag, dross or similar industrial waste; whether or not incorporating the materials in Tariff item 2517.10.00
251730Tarred macadam
251741Stones; of marble, in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
251749Stones; of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
252100Limestone flux; limestone and other calcareous stone, of a kind used for the manufacture of lime or cement
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Togo imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Madagascar USD 26.6 mSenegal USD 15.6 mCameroon USD 6.7 mTunisia USD 4.8 mMorocco USD 4.4 mCote dIvoire USD 4.1 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mGhana USD 3 m

Source: USGS MYB Togo · 2019

Cocoa beans

Export revenue +54.7% (2023); small base · Maturity: Raw bean · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: BCEAO/Togo First · 2023

Manganese ore

Nayega 8.48 Mt @14% Mn; production began 2025 · Maturity: Raw ore · Competitiveness: Moderate (mostly extra-African)
EMERGING
USD 12 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260200Manganese ores and concentrates, including ferruginous manganese ores and concentrates with a manganese content of 20% o
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 8.8 mSouth Africa USD 2.4 mAngola USD 0.4 mCote dIvoire USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: Keras/Togo First · 2023-2025

Phosphate rock / calcium phosphates

30 Mt reserves; 1.5 Mt/yr SNPT; 4th-largest global exporter · Maturity: Raw / lightly processed · Competitiveness: Moderate–High — fertilizer feedstock
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 11.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251010Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; unground
251020Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Togo imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 4.7 mSouth Africa USD 2.9 mTunisia USD 1.5 mCote dIvoire USD 1.4 mGhana USD 0.5 mUganda USD 0.3 mNigeria USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.2 m

Source: USGS MCS; OEC · 2024-2026/2022

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Togo is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Togo buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Togo is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 2.98 bn

Togo’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

14

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierTogo imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
SoybeansEMERGINGUSD 71.1 mUSD 2.93 bn
Cotton textiles / garmentsASPIRATIONALUSD 47.5 mUSD 924.6 m
Phosphate fertilizers (DAP/MAP/SSP)ASPIRATIONALUSD 39.7 mUSD 3.44 bn
Cement clinkerSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 39.1 mUSD 2.9 bn
Portland cementSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 39.1 mUSD 2.9 bn
Soybean oil & mealEMERGINGUSD 1.1 mUSD 4.04 bn
Marble / dimension stoneGREYUSD 0.8 mUSD 122.1 m
Shea (kernels/butter)EMERGINGUSD 0.2 mUSD 357.5 m
Limestone / aggregatesEMERGINGUSD 0.2 mUSD 92.1 m
Iron oreGREYUSD 0 mUSD 2.85 bn
Cotton lintEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 392 m
Cocoa beansEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 45.3 m
Manganese oreEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 12 m
Phosphate rock / calcium phosphatesSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 11.9 m

Left-hand column: what Togo itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Togo’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 14 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Togo’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Togo. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Togo’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Togo’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 4.78 bn
02AlgeriaUSD 2.28 bn
03MoroccoUSD 1.28 bn
04Cote dIvoireUSD 835.3 m
05LibyaUSD 751.5 m
06GhanaUSD 742.5 m
07EthiopiaUSD 699.4 m
08TunisiaUSD 648.6 m
09MaliUSD 605.4 m
10Burkina FasoUSD 410.2 m
11South AfricaUSD 327.2 m
12KenyaUSD 326.2 m
13CameroonUSD 305.8 m
14UgandaUSD 281.1 m
15ZimbabweUSD 258.3 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Togo. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Togo would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Togo to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable industrial power.

For clinker and cement to lock as a continental supply category, long-run kiln fuel must be secured — the Kékéli gas plant plus dedicated solar must reliably serve industry, since kiln economics depend on captive or imported fuel that Togo's scarce, import-dependent grid cannot yet guarantee.

02

Anchor-firm expansion earmarked for the region.

HeidelbergCement, or a successor, must commit expansion capacity specifically earmarked for regional supply; without that the capability remains a single-firm corporate asset rather than a scalable sovereign supply position.

03

ECOWAS/AfCFTA cement-standards harmonisation.

Cement-standards harmonisation across ECOWAS and AfCFTA must hold so that Togolese clinker continues to move duty-light into Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana.

04

OCP fertilizer plant to financial close.

For phosphate fertilizer — the bigger prize — to graduate from aspirational, the 2023 OCP plant agreement must reach financial close and operation, a sulphuric/phosphoric-acid line plus reliable power must be built, and SNPT feedstock reliability and grade upgrading must be assured; absent this, Togo supplies only raw rock.

05

Agro-processing at commercial throughput.

For soybean oil/meal and textiles to reach supply scale, the PIA plants must reach commercial throughput, feedstock aggregation for soy and cotton must be stabilised, and power and working capital must be secured.

06

Manganese downstream alloying.

For manganese to matter continentally it would need downstream alloying into ferromanganese, which is not currently planned; demand for the raw 14% Mn ore is largely extra-African.

The binding constraints
·

Power is the binding constraint. At about 217 kWh per capita (2023) with the majority of electricity imported and frequent outages, Togo cannot support energy-intensive beneficiation — phosphoric acid, smelting or large-scale grinding expansion — without dedicated captive generation.

·

Single-firm and single-buyer dependence. The clinker capability belongs to HeidelbergCement and is a corporate, not sovereign, asset; phosphate is a historically under-invested state monopoly (SNPT); and the fertilizer prize hinges on a single OCP agreement.

·

Raw-export lock-in. Phosphate, manganese, cotton, soy and cocoa all leave the country largely unprocessed, so the value-capture — and the supply prize itself — sits downstream of where Togo currently operates.

·

Capital and scale. With GDP under USD 10 billion, thin domestic capital and manufacturing value added of about USD 1 billion, Togo competes against Dangote-scale incumbents and cannot match them on balance-sheet or tonnage.

·

Skills base. A Human Capital Index of 0.43 and a narrow TVET base leave the economy reliant on employer-run training islands such as PIA and LCT rather than a broad industrial skills pool.

·

Governance and environmental liabilities. Phosphate-sector governance weaknesses and environmental liabilities — notably the Kpémé marine discharge — are real reputational and operational risks attached to the country's flagship mineral.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Togo’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power is the binding constraint. Per-capita electricity consumption stands at 217 kWh in 2023, the majority of electricity is imported, and outages are frequent. The audit judges this disqualifying for energy-intensive beneficiation such as phosphoric acid, smelting or large-scale grinding expansion in the absence of dedicated captive generation.

05

The clinker capability is corporate, not sovereign. Clinker capability belongs to HeidelbergCement, phosphate is a state monopoly under SNPT that has historically been under-invested, and the fertiliser pathway hinges on a single agreement with OCP. Concentration of this kind is a delivery risk in its own right.

06

Raw-export lock-in caps value capture. Phosphate, manganese, cotton, soy and cocoa all leave the country largely unprocessed. The audit is explicit that the value capture, and the supply prize itself, sits downstream of where Togo currently operates.

07

Capital and scale are thin against incumbents. GDP is under USD 10 billion, domestic capital is thin, and manufacturing value added is roughly USD 1 billion. Togo would be competing against Dangote-scale incumbents already expanding aggressively in the same categories.

08

The skills base is narrow. The Human Capital Index is 0.43, the technical and vocational training base is thin, and industrial skills rest on employer-run training islands at the Plateforme Industrielle d'Adetikope and the Lome Container Terminal rather than a broad system.

09

Governance and environmental liabilities are live. Phosphate-sector governance and environmental liabilities, including marine discharge at Kpeme, are recorded as real reputational and operational risks.

10

Several conditions must hold before clinker can be treated as locked. Long-run kiln fuel must be secured, with the Kekeli gas plant and dedicated solar reliably serving industry; HeidelbergCement or a successor must commit expansion capacity earmarked for regional supply; and ECOWAS and AfCFTA cement-standards harmonisation must hold so that Togolese clinker moves duty-light.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Togo's Draft 1 bundle rests on one proven processing capability and one logistics capability, not on the scale of any raw endowment. Cement clinker and Portland cement are already produced, already exported across borders to Benin, Burkina Faso and Ghana, and already served by the region's only Top-100 deep-water port, which also makes Togo the gateway for landlocked Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali and northern Nigeria. Phosphate rock is a genuine top-four global position but sits at the raw end of the chain, and the fertiliser prize behind it remains aspirational until the 2023 OCP agreement reaches financial close and operation, a sulphuric and phosphoric acid line is built, reliable power is secured and SNPT feedstock reliability and grade upgrading are assured. What must be proven, therefore, is threefold: that long-run kiln fuel can be secured so that clinker economics hold; that expansion capacity can be committed and earmarked for regional supply rather than left to a single corporate owner's discretion; and that the early-stage agro-processing at Adetikope can reach commercial throughput with stabilised soy and cotton feedstock aggregation, power and working capital. Absent these, Togo supplies clinker and cement at scale, logistics services at best-in-region quality, and raw rock.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Togo is shown 14 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Togo to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2