Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
ChadBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Chad — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
17
Draft 1 candidate lines for Chad
The Minister’s brief · for Tahir Hamid Nguilin · Chad
Minister Nguilin, Chad holds what the Sahel spent centuries building and no rival can quickly copy: roughly 129 million head of livestock, some 29 million of them cattle — the third-largest herd on the continent, after Ethiopia and Sudan — already moving live into Nigeria, Cameroon and Congo. The buyers sit next door, in Central Africa, and the numbers are precise. Central African states import more than USD 350 million of processed meat and offal annually, while regional livestock trade barely reaches USD 50 million — that difference is bought outside the continent, and it is Chad's to reclaim. The Right of Supply gives Chad a twenty-five-year first right to serve that demand, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. We have written the demand your herd can be built to meet; your correction is the next move, Minister.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Chad
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Tahir Hamid Nguilin, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Chad · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Nguilin,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Chad — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Chad is in this room

Chad's strongest endowment is its livestock complex: roughly 129 million head in total (2025, UNECA), including some 29 million cattle, the third-largest herd in Africa after Ethiopia and Sudan (FAOSTAT, 2020), built over centuries of Sahelian transhumant herding and already trading into Nigeria, Cameroon and Congo as live animals. Against that stands the honest constraint. The step from live animal to chilled and frozen meat and offal — the step that meets an ECCAS processed-meat and offal import bill exceeding USD 350 million a year against regional livestock trade of barely USD 50 million (UNECA, 23 March 2025) — rests today on a single commissioned plant, the Logone Abattoir Industrial Complex at Moundou, in a country with 12 per cent electrification (2023, World Bank), roughly 1,700 km of poor road to Douala, no functioning rail and weak veterinary and sanitary certification. Chad's allocation is therefore properly read as demand certainty against which capability is to be built, not as capacity that exists today.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Chad, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Chad

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
17draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Chad’s draft bundle. 17 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Crude petroleum, Live cattle / live animals, Gum arabic. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 3 strong contender · 6 emerging · 7 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Chad is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 17 candidate lines proposed for Chad below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Chad. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Chad will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Chad will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
17 lines
Chad’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Chad at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Chad’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Chad’s own capability audit.

Crude petroleum (HS 2709)

The audit rates crude a strong endowment but explicitly non-continental: Africa is a net crude exporter, so continental substitution value is low and the trade is mostly extra-continental. It is also sold entirely raw, through a single pipeline route to Kribi.

Raw base · continental-demand screen

Gum arabic as an import-substitution claim (HS 130120)

Chad is the world's second-largest producer with real export performance, but the audit records demand as overwhelmingly extra-continental — France took a record 12,787 tonnes in 2024 and Chad supplies about 16 per cent of US imports (2025, Ecofin) — so it earns foreign exchange rather than substituting an African import bill. No kibbling or spray-drying capacity was found; the product leaves raw or merely cleaned and sorted.

Capability inversion · raw base vs finished good

Unwrought gold (HS 7108)

Production is overwhelmingly artisanal, illicit and substantially smuggled to Libya and the UAE, with no domestic refining, and the audit notes demand is global rather than an African import-substitution bill. Australian junior exploration in Ouaddaï advanced projects but no industrial mine is in production (USGS, 2020–21).

Raw base · industrial screen

Non-fuel minerals: uranium, bauxite, kaolin, titanium, iron ore

USGS records that Chad is not a globally significant producer of mineral commodities, and the audit draws the distinction explicitly: aside from artisanal gold and natron, these are cited in legacy government inventories as potential, not measured reserves with production.

Potential, not production

Processed meat and offal as a near-term supply claim

The audit tiers this as emerging, not strong: the processing base is nascent at a single plant commissioned in 2024–25, with cold chain, power and sanitary certification unresolved. It states that live-animal exports remain the realistic near-term position and processed meat is the growth allocation.

Scale-matching

Solar electricity and cane/refined sugar

Solar is recorded as potential only — very high irradiation with near-zero installed capacity and about 140 MW under construction (2023). The SONASUT sugar complex is described as domestic only and not export-scale. Neither can be presented as available supply.

Installed vs potential capacity
08 · Endowment
What Chad actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Chad. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Chad's endowment is Sahelian and pastoral before it is industrial. The country holds roughly 129 million head of livestock in total (2025, UNECA), including some 29 million cattle — the third-largest cattle herd in Africa after Ethiopia at about 63 million and Sudan at about 31 million (FAOSTAT, 2020) — alongside substantial goat, sheep and camel holdings; the 2015 General Livestock Census recorded goats at 32 per cent, sheep at 29 per cent, cattle at 26 per cent and others at 13 per cent (World Bank PRWP 10830, 2024). Around 80 per cent of Chadians depend on agriculture, livestock or fishing, and agriculture accounts for roughly 40 per cent of GDP (2025, World Bank). This is not a transient boom: the audit attributes the herd to centuries of Sahelian transhumant herding across Chad's vast arid and semi-arid rangelands — a durable, geography-rooted endowment.

Beside the herd sit two further endowments of genuine international standing. Chad is the world's second-largest producer of gum arabic (2024, The Africa Report/UNCTAD), with production of about 42,000 tonnes in 2022, up from some 14,551 tonnes in 2010, and export value near USD 30.6 million (2022, ITC); UNCTAD placed Chad at roughly 13 per cent of crude-gum exports (2014–16). The mechanism is agro-ecological — the Acacia/Vachellia gum belt of the Sahel — reinforced since 2010 by donor-backed sector organisation through the EIF and AFD. In hydrocarbons, proven oil reserves stand at about 1.5 billion barrels, roughly the tenth-largest in Africa (industry, 2024), monetised through a single anchor route: the roughly 1,070 km Chad–Cameroon pipeline to Kribi/Komé, with about 225,000 barrels per day of capacity. Cotton has grown materially, with seed-cotton output rising from 17,500 tonnes in 2019 to 146,000 tonnes in 2022 after Olam acquired 60 per cent of Cotontchad in 2018, drawing on some 200,000 smallholders. Sesame exports reached about USD 33.8 million in 2019 (ITC), notably to African neighbours including Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Nigeria and Sudan.

The complexity picture is unambiguous and the audit states it plainly. Chad ranks among the least economically complex economies in the world (Harvard Growth Lab/OEC), reflecting an export basket that is roughly 95 per cent crude oil and gold (2023, OEC). Revealed comparative advantage above unity sits in crude petroleum (2709), unwrought gold (7108), gum arabic and natural gums (1301), oil seeds and sesame (1207) and raw cotton (5201). The product-space position is sparse and peripheral: feasible near-term diversification lies in agro-industrial steps taken directly off existing primary endowments — cottonseed and sesame oils, processed and chilled meat and offal, hides and leather, kibbled and graded gum — rather than in machinery or chemicals. The recurring pattern across every category is the same: significant raw endowment, almost no processing.

The endowment in depth

Chad's mineral and energy endowment is dominated by a single hydrocarbon axis atop an otherwise thin non-fuel base. The USGS records Chad as "not a globally significant producer of mineral commodities" (2024): cement is the only commodity reliably recorded, while aggregates, clay, gold, gypsum, lime, salt and soda ash (natron) "may have been produced, but available information was inadequate to make reliable estimates of output." Gold is overwhelmingly artisanal, illicit and smuggled to Libya and the UAE, centred on the northern Kouri Bougoudi goldfield in the Tibesti, which at peak hosted roughly 40,000 miners (Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2022), with no domestic refining; Australian junior exploration (IronRidge/Atlantic Lithium, later Ricca Resources) advanced gold projects in the southeastern Ouaddaï region but no industrial mine is in production. Natron, historically Chad's principal mineral resource, is dug artisanally from the Lake Chad and Borkou areas, and uranium, bauxite, kaolin, titanium and iron ore sit in legacy government inventories as potential rather than measured reserves. On energy, proven oil reserves are about 1.5 billion barrels, roughly the 10th-largest in Africa, but production is mature and declining — about 127,000 b/d (2024, Worldometer), with industry sources reporting some 137,000 b/d in early 2025, down from about 144,000 b/d in 2024. The Doba project (Savannah Energy 40%, nationalised by decree in March 2023) comprises seven fields producing a combined ~28,000 b/d; the Chad–Cameroon pipeline of about 1,070 km to Kribi/Komé, with ~225,000 b/d capacity, is the single export lifeline; and the Djarmaya refinery (CNPC 60%/SHT 40%, ~20,000 b/d, operational since 2011) supplies domestic fuels. Power is the binding gate: about 285 MW installed and 402 GWh generated (2023), roughly 60% reserved for oilfields and the refinery and only about half operational, with electricity access of just 12% and per-capita consumption near 15 kWh — around 22 times below the Sub-Saharan average — against very high solar irradiation but near-zero installed solar (about 140 MW under construction).

Agriculture, livestock and fishing occupy roughly 80% of Chadians and agriculture is about 40% of GDP (2025, World Bank), with the livestock complex the pre-eminent endowment. Total holdings reach approximately 129 million head (2025, UNECA), of which cattle number about 29 million — the third-largest herd in Africa after Ethiopia (~63m) and Sudan (~31m) (FAOSTAT, 2020) — alongside large goat, sheep and camel populations; the 2015 General Livestock Census split was goats 32%, sheep 29%, cattle 26% and others 13% (World Bank PRWP 10830, 2024). Livestock is the largest non-oil export, moving substantially to Nigeria, Cameroon and Congo, but as live animals. Gum arabic is the second signature endowment: Chad is the world's number-two producer, with output of about 42,000 tonnes (2022) up from about 14,551 tonnes (2010) and export value near USD 30.6 million (2022, ITC). Cotton has scaled sharply, seed-cotton output growing from 17,500 tonnes (2019) to 146,000 tonnes (2022) after Olam acquired 60% of Cotontchad (2018), engaging roughly 200,000 smallholders; sesame exported about USD 33.8 million (2019, ITC), notably to Benin, Cameroon, CAR, Nigeria and Sudan. Groundnuts, sorghum and millet, dates, Lake Chad fisheries, shea, hibiscus and spirulina round out the base — all small-scale and largely unprocessed, repeating the recurring pattern of significant raw endowment and almost no processing.

The existing industrial and manufacturing base is among the smallest in Africa. Industry including construction was 29.67% of GDP (2024, World Bank), but this figure is dominated by oil extraction and construction; manufacturing value added is very small, and Chad does not appear in the headline UNIDO CIP economic-competitiveness ranking (Africa being a noted data gap in the CIP 2025 preliminary results). Documented processing is limited to cotton ginning and a cottonseed-oil plant at Moundou (Cotontchad/Olam), the Djarmaya refinery, a cement plant (SONACIM Baore, restarted December 2020, USGS), domestic sugar (SONASUT), breweries and soap. Critically, Chad historically had no functional industrial abattoirs — a gap only recently addressed by the Laham Tchad/Logone Abattoir Industrial Complex. In short, Chad holds resources it processes barely at all.

Human capital and logistics complete the picture and jointly cap ambition. Literacy and tertiary enrolment are very low and the Human Capital Index is low; the labour force is large, young, low-cost and overwhelmingly agro-pastoral and informal, with thin specialised industrial skill clusters — the oil and refinery sectors rely heavily on expatriate technical staff, and the Djarmaya project bundled a petroleum college precisely because local skills were absent. On infrastructure, Chad is landlocked and transit-dependent: the primary corridor is N'Djamena–Douala (Cameroon) at about 1,700 km, with very poor roads and no functioning national rail, and the only dedicated export infrastructure is the Chad–Cameroon oil pipeline. Logistics performance sits among the weakest globally on the World Bank Logistics Performance Index, making the corridor the binding constraint on delivering any manufactured or perishable supply — especially punishing for chilled or frozen goods.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Chad ranks among the least economically complex economies in the world (Harvard Growth Lab / OEC), a structural reflection of an export basket that is roughly 95% crude petroleum (69.3%, 2023, OEC) and gold (25.5%, 2023). Demonstrated revealed comparative advantage above unity sits in a short list of primary products: crude petroleum (HS 2709), unwrought gold (HS 7108), gum arabic and natural gums (HS 1301), sesame and oil seeds (HS 1207) and raw cotton (HS 5201).

The product-space position is sparse and peripheral, so feasible near-term diversification lies only in adjacent low-complexity steps off existing endowments — cottonseed and sesame oils, processed and chilled meat and offal, hides and leather, and kibbled or graded gum — rather than in machinery or chemicals. The precise current ECI rank and value could not be locked to a primary citation in this pass and are treated as indicative.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Chad's single most defensible continental supply position is the livestock complex — live cattle today, with processed and chilled meat and offal as the upgrade (HS 0102/0104 to 0201/0202/0204/0206). The case rests on a convergence of durable factors. The input base is at genuine continental scale: approximately 129 million head (2025, UNECA), of which about 29 million are cattle, the third-largest herd in Africa after Ethiopia and Sudan (FAOSTAT, 2020) — an endowment built over centuries of Sahelian transhumant herding across Chad's vast arid and semi-arid rangelands, not a transient boom. Intra-African trade is already demonstrated, Chad being Central Africa's leading live-animal exporter to Nigeria, Cameroon and Congo (World Bank PRWP 10830, 2024). Decisively, this is where the substitution prize is largest: per UNECA (23 March 2025), member states of the Economic Community of Central African States import more than USD 350 million of processed meat and offal annually while the total value of regional livestock trade barely reaches USD 50 million — an intra-African gap of roughly USD 300 million currently filled from outside the continent. An anchor investor now exists in the Laham Tchad joint venture (65% ARISE IIP / 35% State, created 16 March 2022) and its USD 790 million plan, with the Logone abattoir at Moundou able to process 200 cattle and 400 small ruminants daily to international cold-chain standards — the first real processing rung on a previously bare ladder.

The honest limits are that the demand certainty is real but Chadian capacity to fill it is nascent. The processing base is a single plant; electricity and cold chain are scarce (12% access, 2023); the roughly 1,700 km Douala corridor makes chilled export costly; and SPS and veterinary certification for cross-border meat is weak. The defensible reading, appropriate to a fragile and rebuilding state, is therefore demand-anchored rather than capacity-anchored: the ECCAS import bill is the fixed, verifiable opportunity, and live-animal exports remain the realistic near-term champion, with processed meat the defensible growth allocation as power, certification, corridor logistics and additional processing capacity are put in place.

Current reality

Chad is a landlocked, fragile, oil-dependent Sahelian economy with GDP of about USD 20.6 billion (2024, World Bank) and a population near 20.3 million (2024). Crude oil accounts for roughly 76 per cent of export value (2024, USGS), and the 2023 export composition was crude petroleum at 69.3 per cent and gold at 25.5 per cent (OEC). Principal partners are extra-continental — the UAE at 25.5 per cent, China at 18.9 per cent, Germany at 17.2 per cent, the Netherlands at 12.5 per cent and France at 10.2 per cent (2023, OEC). Industry including construction was 29.67 per cent of GDP (2024, World Bank), but this is dominated by oil extraction and construction; manufacturing value added is very small and Chad does not appear in the headline UNIDO CIP economic-competitiveness ranking. Documented processing amounts to cotton ginning and a cottonseed-oil plant at Moundou, the Djarmaya refinery, a cement plant (SONACIM Baore, restarted December 2020), domestic sugar through SONASUT, breweries and soap. Until very recently the audit records that "Chad currently has no functional industrial abattoirs" (ITA). The manufacturing base is among the smallest in Africa: Chad holds resources it processes barely at all.

The physical constraints are binding rather than incidental. Electricity access reaches just 12 per cent of the population (2023, World Bank), among the world's lowest, with per-capita consumption around 15 kWh (2023) — about 22 times below the Sub-Saharan average (Enerdata). Installed capacity is roughly 285 MW with generation near 402 GWh (2023, Africa Energy Portal), of which around 60 per cent is dedicated to oilfields and the refinery and only about half of installed capacity is operational. Chad is transit-dependent: the primary corridor is N'Djamena–Douala at roughly 1,700 km, with very poor roads and no functioning national rail, and logistics performance is among the weakest globally. Every non-pipeline export crosses a long, costly road corridor, which is especially punishing for chilled and frozen goods. Chad's allocations are therefore aspirational — demand certainty against which capability is to be built, not near-term deliverable capacity.

Read under the South Sudan Principle

Chad holds an aspirational allocation. Nothing on these pages is a near-term capacity claim. The bundle is the demand certainty against which capability is built, and it is deliberately held open while the state rebuilds.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 17 candidate lines · will change

Chad’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Chad’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Chad will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Chad’s 17 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 3Emerging 6Aspirational 7Grey 1
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined petroleum products

Djarmaya refinery 20,000 b/d; historic exports to CAR · Maturity: Intermediate (simple refining) · Competitiveness: Africa large net importer of refined product
EMERGING
USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)
271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....
271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c
271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara
271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Chad imported USD 48.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: GEM; Energy Capital Power · 2011;2024

Crude petroleum

~1.5bn bbl reserves (~10th Africa); ~127,000 b/d; pipeline to Kribi · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low (Africa net crude exporter)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: USGS; Worldometer · 2024

Cane/refined sugar

SONASUT sugar complex (domestic) · Maturity: Domestic only · Competitiveness: Africa net sugar importer
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 8.84 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170111Raw cane sugar (excluding added flavouring or colouring)
170112Sugars; beet sugar, raw, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170113Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouri
170114Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing add
170191Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 2.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 997.1 mNigeria USD 981.1 mAlgeria USD 931.8 mSudan USD 796.2 mEgypt USD 728.9 mDjibouti USD 424.9 mSomalia USD 393.7 mKenya USD 391.1 m

Source: ITA; USGS · 2024

Unwrought gold

Artisanal Kouri Bougoudi (~40,000 miners); 25-29% of exports · Maturity: Raw; no domestic refining · Competitiveness: Global, not African import-substitution
EMERGING
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: USGS; OEC; Global Initiative · 2022;2023;2024

Cottonseed oil

Moundou cottonseed-oil plant (Cotontchad) · Maturity: Intermediate; small scale · Competitiveness: Africa net edible-oil importer
EMERGING
USD 2.04 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
151211Vegetable oils; sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151219Vegetable oils; sunflower seed or safflower oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not c
151221Vegetable oils; cotton-seed oil and its fractions; crude, whether or not gossypol has been removed, not chemically modif
151229Vegetable oils; cotton-seed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 656.9 mDjibouti USD 360.5 mEthiopia USD 181.7 mSouth Africa USD 167.6 mMorocco USD 120.2 mLibya USD 108.2 mTunisia USD 79.5 mSudan USD 62.9 m

Source: Ecofin; IDH · 2018;2021

Bovine & small-ruminant meat & offal

Same herd base; Laham Tchad/Logone anchor processor (USD 790m) commissioned · Maturity: Nascent processing (one plant) · Competitiveness: ECCAS imports >USD 350m processed meat/offal vs ~USD 50m regional livestock trade
EMERGING
USD 2.03 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
020110Meat; of bovine animals, carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020120Meat; of bovine animals, cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020130Meat; of bovine animals, boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
020210Meat; of bovine animals, carcasses and half-carcasses, frozen
020220Meat; of bovine animals, cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), frozen
020230Meat; of bovine animals, boneless cuts, frozen
020410Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020421Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), fresh or chilled
020422Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020423Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
020430Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, frozen
020441Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), frozen
020442Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), frozen
020443Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, frozen
020450Meat; of goats, fresh, chilled or frozen
020610Offal, edible; of bovine animals, fresh or chilled
020621Offal, edible; of bovine animals, tongues, frozen
020622Offal, edible; of bovine animals, livers, frozen
020629Offal, edible; of bovine animals, (other than tongues and livers), frozen
020630Offal, edible; of swine, fresh or chilled
020641Offal, edible; of swine, livers, frozen
020649Offal, edible; of swine, (other than livers), frozen
020680Offal, edible; of sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies, fresh or chilled
020690Offal, edible; of sheep, goats, horses, asses, mules or hinnies, frozen
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Chad imported USD 0.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.1 bnCote dIvoire USD 158.9 mLibya USD 99.7 mAngola USD 85.6 mCongo USD 80 mGhana USD 76 mSouth Africa USD 67.8 mMauritius USD 50.2 m

Source: UNECA; ITA · 2025

Live cattle / live animals

3rd-largest cattle herd in Africa (~29m); ~129m head; established live exports to Nigeria/Cameroon/Congo · Maturity: Raw (live); next step chilled/frozen meat · Competitiveness: High intra-African
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 1.02 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
010210Pure-bred breeding bovines
010221Cattle; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010229Cattle; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010231Buffalo; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010239Buffalo; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010290Bovine animals; live, other than cattle and buffalo
010410Sheep; live
010420Goats; live
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 309.4 mMorocco USD 250.9 mSouth Africa USD 148.1 mAlgeria USD 104.6 mLibya USD 88.7 mMauritius USD 21.5 mGuinea USD 14.2 mCote dIvoire USD 12.8 m

Source: FAOSTAT; UNECA; World Bank PRWP 10830 · 2020;2024;2025

Sodium carbonate / natron

Historic Lake Chad/Borkou natron · Maturity: Raw/artisanal · Competitiveness: Limited regional
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 946.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
283610Commercial ammonium carbonate and other ammonium carbonates
283620Carbonates; disodium carbonate
283630Carbonates; sodium hydrogen carbonate (sodium bicarbonate)
283640Carbonates; potassium carbonate
283650Carbonates; calcium carbonate
283660Carbonates; barium carbonate
283670Lead carbonates
283691Carbonates; lithium carbonate
283692Carbonates; strontium carbonate
283699Carbonates; n.e.c. in heading no. 2836 and other than lithium or strontium
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 203.3 mSouth Africa USD 201.3 mNigeria USD 107.6 mAlgeria USD 65.9 mMorocco USD 43.7 mTunisia USD 35.8 mTanzania USD 35.6 mEthiopia USD 29.1 m

Source: USGS; Britannica · 2024

Dates

Saharan oasis production · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Regional
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 473.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080410Fruit, edible; dates, fresh or dried
080420Fruit, edible; figs, fresh or dried
080430Fruit, edible; pineapples, fresh or dried
080440Fruit, edible; avocados, fresh or dried
080450Fruit, edible; guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, fresh or dried
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 267.6 mEgypt USD 35.2 mSomalia USD 30.2 mNigeria USD 28.1 mGhana USD 19.3 mSouth Africa USD 11.9 mMauritania USD 9.5 mDjibouti USD 8 m

Source: ITA · 2024

Spirulina / algae

Lake Chad natron-lake spirulina (dihé) · Maturity: Artisanal · Competitiveness: Niche/global
GREY
USD 425 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
121210Locust beans, incl. locust bean seed, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121220Seaweeds and other algae, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121221Seaweeds and other algae; fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121229Seaweeds and other algae; not fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121230Apricot, peach "incl. nectarine" or plum stones and kernels
121291Sugar beet; fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121292Locust beans (carob); fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121293Sugar cane; fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground
121294Chicory roots (Chicorium intybus sativum); fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not gr
121299Vegetable products; fit for human consumption, n.e.c. in heading no. 1212, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or n
210210Yeasts; active
210220Yeasts; inactive, other single-cell micro-organisms, dead
210230Baking powders; prepared

Chad imported USD 5.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 55.6 mSudan USD 40.1 mNigeria USD 30.9 mMorocco USD 29.6 mEgypt USD 28.7 mEthiopia USD 21.6 mCote dIvoire USD 18 mSouth Africa USD 17.1 m

Source: ITA · 2024

Cotton lint

Seed-cotton 146,000 t under Olam; ginning in place · Maturity: Intermediate (ginned lint) · Competitiveness: African mills import lint/yarn
EMERGING
USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520100Cotton; not carded or combed
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: Olam; IDH · 2021;2022

Sesame seed

Large producer; exports to African neighbours · Maturity: Raw seed; oil step identified · Competitiveness: Regional/intra-African
EMERGING
USD 337.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120710Oil seeds; palm nuts and kernels, whether or not broken
120720Cotton seeds, whether or not broken
120721Oil seeds; cotton seeds, seed, whether or not broken
120729Oil seeds; cotton seeds, other than seed, whether or not broken
120730Oil seeds; castor oil seeds, whether or not broken
120740Oil seeds; sesamum seeds, whether or not broken
120750Oil seeds; mustard seeds, whether or not broken
120760Oil seeds; safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) seeds, whether or not broken
120770Oil seeds; melon seeds, whether or not broken
120791Oil seeds; poppy seeds, whether or not broken
120799Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; n.e.c. in heading no. 1207, whether or not broken
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 115.5 mGhana USD 46 mMorocco USD 42.7 mTunisia USD 27 mAlgeria USD 25.5 mKenya USD 19.1 mSouth Africa USD 12.6 mMozambique USD 8 m

Source: ITA; EIF/ITC · 2019;2024

Salt

Lake Chad/Borkou deposits · Maturity: Raw/artisanal · Competitiveness: Africa imports salt
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: USGS · 2024

Groundnuts

Widely grown; not processed at scale · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Regional
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 277.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120210Groundnuts in shell, not roasted or otherwise cooked
120220Shelled groundnuts, whether or not broken (excluding roasted or otherwise cooked)
120230Ground-nuts; seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, whether or not shelled or broken
120241Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, in shell
120242Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, shelled, whether or not broken,
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 132.8 mSouth Africa USD 33.3 mUganda USD 25.6 mRwanda USD 19 mMorocco USD 17 mLibya USD 8.7 mKenya USD 8 mTunisia USD 5.8 m

Source: ITA · 2024

Sorghum / millet

Staple cereals; subsistence surplus · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Regional food demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 269 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
100700Grain sorghum
100710Cereals; grain sorghum, seed
100790Cereals; grain sorghum, other than seed
100810Cereals; buckwheat
100820Millet (excluding grain sorghum)
100821Cereals; millet, seed
100829Cereals; millet, other than seed
100830Cereals; canary seeds
100840Cereals; fonio (Digitaria spp.)
100850Cereals; quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa)
100860Cereals; triticale
100890Cereals; n.e.c. in chapter 10
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Kenya USD 52.7 mSudan USD 33.9 mSouth Sudan USD 31.4 mSouth Africa USD 28 mEritrea USD 27.4 mRwanda USD 18.6 mMadagascar USD 11.3 mMorocco USD 10.2 m

Source: FAO · 2024

Raw hides, skins & leather

By-product of large herd; Vision 2030 priority · Maturity: Raw/minimal; tanning absent · Competitiveness: Africa imports leather inputs
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 112.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
410110Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing <= 8 kg when dried, <= 10 kg when dry-salted and . . .
410120Raw hides and skins; whole, unsplit, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin not exceeding 8kg when simply dri
410121Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing > 14 kg, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired . . .
410122Raw butts and bends of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split
410129Raw hides and skins of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split . . .
410150Hides and skins; raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg
410190Hides and skins; other than whole, but including butts, bends and bellies, of bovine (including. buffalo) and equine ani
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 93.1 mEgypt USD 7.4 mGhana USD 5.1 mUganda USD 3.5 mKenya USD 1.4 mTunisia USD 1.2 mBenin USD 0.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 m

Source: ITA; ITC · 2010

Gum arabic

World's #2 producer (~42,000 t); UNCTAD ~13% of crude-gum exports; RCA>1 · Maturity: Raw/cleaned/sorted; no kibbling/spray-dry · Competitiveness: Extra-continental demand (France/USA/India)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 40.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
130110Natural lac
130120Gum Arabic
130190Natural gums, resins, gum-resins and oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 1301
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Chad imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 7.7 mEswatini USD 7.1 mEgypt USD 4.8 mMorocco USD 3.7 mAlgeria USD 3 mBurkina Faso USD 2.9 mEthiopia USD 2.5 mLibya USD 1.6 m

Source: ITA; EIF/ITC; UNCTAD; Ecofin · 2014-16;2022;2024;2025

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Chad is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Chad buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Chad is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 1.66 bn

Chad’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

17

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierChad imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Refined petroleum productsEMERGINGUSD 48.2 mUSD 110.54 bn
Spirulina / algaeGREYUSD 5.2 mUSD 425 m
Cane/refined sugarASPIRATIONALUSD 2.8 mUSD 8.84 bn
Unwrought goldEMERGINGUSD 0.8 mUSD 2.99 bn
DatesASPIRATIONALUSD 0.8 mUSD 473.4 m
Cottonseed oilEMERGINGUSD 0.6 mUSD 2.04 bn
SaltASPIRATIONALUSD 0.6 mUSD 303.1 m
Bovine & small-ruminant meat & offalEMERGINGUSD 0.5 mUSD 2.03 bn
Live cattle / live animalsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.1 mUSD 1.02 bn
Sodium carbonate / natronASPIRATIONALUSD 0.1 mUSD 946.5 m
Crude petroleumSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 11.08 bn
Cotton lintEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 392 m
Sesame seedEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 337.6 m
GroundnutsASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 277.3 m

Left-hand column: what Chad itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Chad’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 17 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Chad’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Chad. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Chad’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Chad’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 21.39 bn
02NigeriaUSD 21.22 bn
03EgyptUSD 11.88 bn
04MoroccoUSD 9.46 bn
05DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn
06LibyaUSD 4.97 bn
07KenyaUSD 4.83 bn
08GhanaUSD 4.74 bn
09Cote dIvoireUSD 3.1 bn
10UgandaUSD 1.95 bn
11AlgeriaUSD 1.39 bn
12SenegalUSD 952.2 m
13SudanUSD 933.1 m
14DjiboutiUSD 793.4 m
15TunisiaUSD 701.3 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Chad. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Chad would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Chad to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable power and cold chain

Dedicated solar-plus-grid capacity at Moundou and N'Djamena, leveraging Chad's high solar irradiation and the roughly 140 MW under construction, to lift processing above the current 12% electrification ceiling.

02

Recognised veterinary and SPS certification

WOAH-standard abattoirs, traceability and disease control accepted by importing African states, so the ECCAS processed-meat and offal import bill of more than USD 350 million a year can be met from within the continent.

03

Corridor logistics and formalisation

Refrigerated transport and trade facilitation on N'Djamena–Douala and toward Nigeria and CAR, plus formalisation of the currently informal livestock trade that official data under-captures.

04

Scaled processing beyond one plant

Replication of processing capacity beyond the single Logone abattoir, across the planned special economic zones, with secured working capital.

05

Value capture in gum arabic

Investment in kibbling and spray-drying to retain value now lost to European processors — a foreign-exchange play rather than an import-substitution one.

06

Security and policy stability

Political and security stability sufficient to sustain multi-year private capital through the dynastic transition and regional conflict spillover.

The binding constraints
·

Power is a hard ceiling Electrification reaches just 12% of the population (2023, World Bank); of roughly 285 MW installed only about half is operational, and most is reserved for oilfields and the refinery, leaving little headroom for cold-chain or heavy processing.

·

Landlocked transit logistics The primary corridor to Douala runs about 1,700 km with no functioning rail and poor roads, and Chad sits in the bottom tier of the Logistics Performance Index — prohibitive economics for perishables and bulky manufactures.

·

Concentrated capital and feedstock dependency Flagship processing rests on single anchor investors — ARISE IIP for meat, Olam for cotton, CNPC for refining — and on single buyers and routes, concentrating counterparty and corridor risk.

·

Thin skills and certification base Very low literacy and tertiary enrolment constrain skilled manufacturing, and industrial and SPS/veterinary capacity is limited; the Djarmaya refinery bundled a petroleum college precisely because local skills were absent.

·

Governance and security instability A dynastic transition, contested elections, a 2025 constitutional term extension, and conflict spillover from Sudan, Libya and CAR and from Boko Haram in the Lake Chad basin disrupt investment and export corridors.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Chad’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

An aspirational allocation is not a capability claim. Chad holds lines against which capability must still be built. Nothing here should be read as present capacity, and the instrument’s value to Chad lies in the demand certainty, not in near-term supply.

05

Power is a hard ceiling, not a soft constraint. Electrification stands at 12 per cent (2023, World Bank), with roughly 285 MW installed of which only about half is operational and most is reserved for oilfields and the refinery. The audit treats this as a hard ceiling on cold chain and heavy processing.

06

The corridor punishes exactly the goods Chad would upgrade into. Chad is landlocked with roughly 1,700 km to Douala, no functioning rail, poor roads and bottom-tier logistics performance. The audit describes this as prohibitive for perishables and bulky manufactures — precisely the chilled and frozen meat category the trump card rests on.

07

Capital and feedstock rest on single counterparties. Flagship processing depends on single anchor investors — ARISE IIP for meat, Olam for cotton, CNPC for refining — and on single buyers and routes, producing concentrated counterparty and corridor risk.

08

Sanitary and veterinary certification is not yet in place. The audit requires veterinary and sanitary certification recognised by importing African states, including WOAH-standard abattoirs, traceability and disease control, before the ECCAS processed-meat import bill can be met from Chadian supply. It records current sanitary and veterinary capacity as weak.

09

The processing base is one plant. Scaled processing beyond a single abattoir is a stated precondition, requiring replication across the planned special economic zones with secured working capital. Six further zones target USD 2 billion of revenue and 35,000 jobs by 2035 (UNECA, 2025) — a 2035 horizon, not a present capability.

10

Skills are thin at every industrial rung. The audit records a very low literacy and tertiary base, thin specialised industrial skill clusters, and heavy reliance on expatriate technical staff in oil and refining — the Djarmaya project bundled a petroleum college precisely because local skills were absent.

11

Governance and security shape whether capital stays. A dynastic transition, a contested 2024 election, an October 2025 constitution extending the presidential term to seven years without limit, and conflict spillover from Sudan, Libya, the Central African Republic and Boko Haram in the Lake Chad basin disrupt investment and corridors. Security and policy stability sufficient to sustain multi-year private capital is listed as a precondition.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Chad's Draft 1 bundle rests on one durable, geography-rooted endowment and one identified gap in continental trade: a herd of roughly 129 million head with about 29 million cattle, and an ECCAS processed-meat and offal import bill above USD 350 million a year set against regional livestock trade of barely USD 50 million (UNECA, 2025). Everything else in the basket is either raw and extra-continental in destination — crude petroleum, unwrought gold, gum arabic — or emerging at sub-scale, as with refined products from the 20,000 barrels per day Djarmaya refinery, ginned cotton lint, cottonseed oil and sesame. What must be proven is not the endowment but the ladder above it: reliable power and cold chain at Moundou and N'Djamena, drawing on high irradiation and the roughly 140 MW of solar under construction; veterinary and sanitary certification recognised by importing African states; refrigerated transport and trade facilitation on the N'Djamena–Douala corridor and toward Nigeria and the Central African Republic, together with formalisation of currently informal livestock trade; processing scaled beyond a single abattoir across the planned special economic zones with secured working capital; and security and policy stability sufficient to sustain multi-year private capital. Until those are demonstrated, Chad's position is an aspirational allocation — a commitment of demand against which capability is built, not a near-term claim of supply.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Chad is shown 17 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Chad to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2