Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
SeychellesBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Seychelles — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
5
Draft 1 candidate lines for Seychelles
The Minister’s brief · for Pierre Laporte · Seychelles
Minister Laporte, Seychelles holds what almost no other African state can offer the continent: not a raw cargo but a finished consumer good, already at the top of the ladder. The Indian Ocean Tuna cannery at Port Victoria — among the largest on earth, 335 tonnes and close to two million cans a day, your nation's single largest employer at some 1,800 people — rests on an ocean of 1.3 to 1.37 million square kilometres. Canned tuna was USD 253 million in 2023, near half of all goods exports. Africa sends billions abroad each year for goods it could source from within; a real share of that is the tinned protein Seychelles already makes. The Right of Supply gives you a twenty-five-year first right to serve it, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. Your correction is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Seychelles
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Pierre Laporte, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Seychelles · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Laporte,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Seychelles — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Seychelles is in this room

Seychelles brings one clearly evidenced continental capability: canned and prepared tuna under HS 1604 and 160414, resting on an maritime economic zone of 1.3 to 1.37 million square kilometres, a 2023 yellowfin quota of 37,782 tonnes, and the Indian Ocean Tuna cannery at Port Victoria, one of the largest tuna processing facilities in the world at 335 tonnes per day and 1.5 to 2 million cans per day, and the country's largest single employer at some 1,800 people. This is finished consumer goods manufacturing, not raw material: canned tuna accounted for USD 253.1 million of USD 547.8 million in goods exports in 2023, roughly 46 per cent of the total. The honest constraint is equally clear. Seychelles sits 1,500 to 1,600 kilometres from the East African mainland with an estimated 20 per cent sea-freight penalty against Asian exporters, some 88 per cent of its exports currently flow to the European Union while only about 2.5 per cent reach Africa, and the continental mass market buys cheaper canned mackerel and sardine rather than premium tuna. Capability is real and finished; the route to African buyers has yet to be built.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Seychelles, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Seychelles

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
5draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Seychelles’s draft bundle. 5 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Canned/prepared tuna. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 2 emerging · 1 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Seychelles is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 5 candidate lines proposed for Seychelles below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Seychelles. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Seychelles will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Seychelles will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
5 lines
Seychelles’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Seychelles at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Seychelles’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Seychelles’s own capability audit.

Mineral fuels and petroleum (HS 2710)

The USD 194 million recorded as mineral fuels, 35.4 per cent of 2023 exports, is overwhelmingly bunker fuel re-export and ship refuelling at Port Victoria, not domestic production or refining. The audit is explicit that it must be excluded from any assessment of genuine domestic productive capacity.

Re-export separation

Iron and steel scrap

The 2023 export line of USD 38.9 million, 7.1 per cent of exports, is recycled scrap collection and re-export rather than mineral production. It spiked 2,687 per cent over 2022 and is a one-off salvage and clearance flow, not a structural capability.

Re-export separation

Minerals and metals

Seychelles has no commercial mineral or metal production, with no meaningful entry in USGS or BGS statistics and only domestic-scale aggregate, sand and quarrying. The field is marked grey and absent.

Absent endowment

Tuna transhipment throughput

The 387,992 metric tonnes unloaded at Port Victoria in 2021 is overwhelmingly a re-export and throughput flow, not Seychelles domestic production, and it is a maritime service position rather than a goods supply.

Throughput vs production

Cinnamon and spice (HS 0906)

Ceylon true cinnamon is genuine and historically central, but the modern industry is a remnant: production fell to about 0.2 tonnes in 2022, with EU exports averaging roughly 30 tonnes a year between 2013 and 2021. The audit tiers it aspirational only.

Scale-matching

Manufactured goods other than fish

Beverages, paints, tobacco and light consumer goods are produced for the domestic market only and are not at export scale, against manufacturing value added of 4.17 per cent of GDP. The audit marks the category grey and insufficient.

Scale-matching
08 · Endowment
What Seychelles actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Seychelles. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Seychelles holds no commercial mineral or metal endowment and no domestic oil or gas production. It is a granitic and coralline archipelago with only domestic-scale construction aggregate, sand and quarrying; USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries and BGS World Mineral Statistics carry no meaningful Seychelles production entry. Petroleum is entirely imported. Installed generation capacity is approximately 129 MW, predominantly heavy fuel oil and diesel through the Public Utilities Corporation, with over 90 per cent of electricity fossil-fuel generated despite full electrification. Renewable assets are the 6 MW Port Victoria Wind Farm (eight 750 kW turbines, commissioned 2013) and the 5 MW Île de Romainville solar array with 3.3 MWh of storage (commissioned 2021), against a national target of 15 per cent renewables by 2030.

The endowment that matters is fisheries. The maritime economic zone spans 1.3 to 1.37 million square kilometres. The 2023 Indian Ocean yellowfin quota allocated to Seychelles was 37,782 tonnes, of which 34,028 tonnes were consumed across purse-seine, industrial and semi-industrial longline fleets, with 13 Seychelles-flagged purse seiners operating at an average allocation of roughly 2,500 tonnes per vessel. On that resource sits the Indian Ocean Tuna cannery at Port Victoria, one of the largest tuna processing facilities globally: 40 per cent Government of Seychelles and 60 per cent Thai Union, approximately 1,800 employees and the largest single employer in the country, with processing capacity raised from 50 tonnes per day in 1995 to 335 tonnes per day and average output of 1.5 to 2 million cans per day. Programme data, to be treated as indicative, attributes 95 per cent of Seychelles' manufacturing exports and 88 per cent of exports to the European Union to this single facility. Port Victoria is also one of the world's major tuna transhipment ports, with 387,992 metric tonnes of tuna unloaded in 2021, though most transhipped tuna is a throughput flow rather than domestic production.

The comparative-advantage picture is correspondingly concentrated. Canned tuna under HS 160414 alone accounted for USD 253.1 million of USD 547.8 million in total goods exports in 2023 (37,226,400 kg), roughly 46 per cent of all goods exports, giving a very high revealed comparative advantage in a single line. Minor secondary advantage exists in cannery byproducts: fishmeal and animal fodder at USD 7.5 million and fish oils at USD 3.7 million in 2023. Seychelles is not published in either the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity or the OEC trade-based ECI rankings, both of which exclude it for insufficient trade-data coverage; that exclusion is itself diagnostic of an extremely undiversified export structure. The realistic product-space adjacency is incremental further food and fish processing, such as tuna loins, pouches and value-added ready meals, a low-to-moderate complexity step. The mechanism of advantage is the combination of anchor foreign investment by Thai Union, EU preferential duty-free market access under the EPA, the EEZ tuna resource and transhipment-port agglomeration at Victoria.

The endowment in depth

Seychelles is a granitic and coralline archipelago with no commercial mineral or metal production. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, the USGS Minerals Yearbook and BGS World Mineral Statistics carry no meaningful Seychelles production entry; only domestic-scale construction aggregate, sand and quarrying exists. The 2023 export line "iron or steel scrap" (USD 38.9 million, 7.1% of exports) is recycled scrap collection and re-export rather than mineral production — it spiked 2,687% over 2022 and is a one-off salvage and clearance flow. On energy, there is no domestic oil or gas production; offshore acreage has been licensed historically with no commercial discovery, and petroleum is entirely imported. Installed generation is approximately 129 MW, predominantly heavy fuel oil and diesel via the Public Utilities Corporation, and over 90% of electricity is fossil-fuel generated despite 100% electrification. Renewables are limited to the 6 MW Port Victoria Wind Farm (eight 750 kW turbines; UAE-funded, ~USD 28 million; commissioned 2013), the 5 MW Île de Romainville solar PV with 3.3 MWh storage (2021, Masdar/ADFD), and a salt-water floating PV project (Seysun Lagoon, ~5.8 MWp, Qair) under development, against a national target of 15% renewables by 2030. The USD 194 million "mineral fuels including oil" export line (35.4% of 2023 exports) is overwhelmingly bunker-fuel re-export and ship refuelling at Port Victoria, not domestic production, and must be excluded from any read of genuine productive capacity.

Fisheries is the endowment. Seychelles is one of the world's most tuna-dependent economies, with per-capita fish consumption around 65 kg/year (indicative), an EEZ of 1.3–1.37 million km², and a 2023 Indian Ocean yellowfin quota of 37,782 tonnes, of which 34,028 tonnes were consumed across purse-seine, industrial and semi-industrial longline fleets; 13 Seychelles-flagged purse seiners operate at an average ~2,500 t/vessel allocation. 2023 was an off-year, with El Niño and a deeper thermocline cutting EEZ catchability roughly 40%, after an exceptional 2022 (+170% over 2021). The Indian Ocean Tuna (IOT) cannery at Port Victoria — 40% Government of Seychelles, 60% Thai Union — is one of the largest tuna processing facilities globally, employing ~1,800 people (the country's largest single employer), with processing capacity raised from 50 t/day (1995) to 335 t/day and average output of 1.5–2 million cans/day; it accounts for 95% of manufacturing exports and 88% of exports to the EU. Port Victoria is also one of the world's major tuna transhipment ports, with 387,992 MT of tuna unloaded in 2021 (93% of that year's total landing and transhipment, +16% on 2020), though most transhipped tuna is a throughput flow rather than Seychelles domestic production. Cannery byproducts include fishmeal and animal fodder (USD 7.5 million, 1.4%) and fish oils and fats (USD 3.7 million, 0.7%) in 2023.

Agriculture is tiny and import-dependent, with over 90% of food and production inputs imported. Heritage crops are negligible at scale: Ceylon true cinnamon (Cinnamomum verum) is genuine and historically central, but production fell to about 0.2 tonnes in 2022 and the modern industry is a remnant (EU cinnamon exports averaged roughly 30 tonnes/year, 2013–2021, under the EPA); copra and coconut, vanilla and Seychelles tea exist mainly for the domestic and tourist market, and forestry is negligible. Manufacturing value added was about 4.17% of GDP in 2024, down from 4.69% in 2023, yet on a per-capita basis MVA exceeds USD 200 — among the higher levels in sub-Saharan Africa — reflecting the cannery's outsized weight. Actual manufacturing is overwhelmingly canned tuna and fish processing, plus small-scale beverages (Seybrew beer, soft drinks), tobacco, paints, baked goods and light consumer goods for the domestic market. The Providence Industrial Estate on Mahé is the main industrial site, damaged by a 2023 explosion that dampened 2024 activity.

Human capital is a small, high-literacy, high-income labour force with GDP per capita around USD 17,900 — the highest in Africa — but high wage and energy costs are a genuine competitiveness constraint, and the cannery relies heavily on expatriate and migrant labour. Specialised skills concentrate in fisheries, maritime, tourism and hospitality, and offshore finance, supported by the University of Seychelles and the Seychelles Maritime Academy. Infrastructure centres on Port Victoria, the only deep-water port and the dominant Indian Ocean tuna transhipment and fleet-servicing port, handling about 95% of national imports; container throughput is a modest ~140,000 TEU annually, with planned expansion to 218,000 TEU under the Port Victoria Expansion and Rehabilitation Project (PVERP), financed by an EIB/AFD loan of about €29 million plus a ~€5 million EU grant (total ~€36.65 million). Seychelles International Airport on Mahé provides air connectivity. The binding constraint is remoteness — roughly 1,500–1,600 km from the East African coast, carrying an estimated ~20% higher sea-freight cost than Southeast Asian competitors — which must be weighed against the "maritime hub" framing.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Seychelles is not published in either the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity or the OEC trade-based ECI rankings; both exclude it for insufficient trade-data coverage, and the OEC 2022 table marks Seychelles "No data" for trade ECI. That exclusion is itself diagnostic of an extremely undiversified, concentrated export structure. Revealed comparative advantage is overwhelmingly in prepared and preserved tuna: canned tuna (HS 160414) alone was USD 253.1 million of USD 547.8 million total goods exports in 2023 (37,226,400 kg) — roughly 46% of all goods exports — giving a very high RCA in a single line, with only minor possible RCA in the cannery byproducts fishmeal (HS 2301) and fish oils (HS 1504).

Because no Atlas profile exists, feasible diversification adjacencies are not flagged. Product-space logic suggests the only near-adjacencies are further food and fish processing — tuna loins, pouches and value-added ready-meals — a low-to-moderate complexity step from the current finished-goods position. This is itself the diagnostic: an economy whose entire complexity read reduces to one processing chain shows little revealed capability to redeploy into more complex products.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Canned and prepared tuna (HS 1604 / 160414) is Seychelles' single strongest, most defensible continental supply position — and essentially its only one. Canned tuna exports reached USD 253.1 million in 2023 (Comtrade/WITS), about 46% of all goods exports; the IOT cannery is one of the largest tuna processing facilities in the world, producing 1.5–2 million cans/day at 335 t/day capacity and accounting for 95% of national manufacturing exports. It combines a real resource (EEZ tuna), genuine finished-goods processing, very high revealed comparative advantage and a shelf-stable consumer product — beneficiation that already sits at the top of the ladder. The mechanism of advantage — Thai Union anchor investment, EU duty-free access under the EPA, EEZ stock, and transhipment-port agglomeration at Victoria — is genuinely durable.

The limits are equally real. The position carries a ~1,500–1,600 km remoteness penalty of roughly 20% on sea-freight versus Asian competitors; it depends on a single investor in Thai Union and on EU preferential access, to which ~88% of exports currently flow; and it faces a premium-species mismatch, since Africa's mass market imports cheaper canned mackerel, sardine and pilchard rather than premium tuna. High domestic wage and energy costs and reliance on imported inputs — cans, aluminium, packaging — compound the exposure. The runners-up drop off sharply: fishmeal and animal fodder (HS 2301) and tuna fish oil (HS 1504) are genuine cannery byproducts with real but tiny volumes (USD 7.5 million and USD 3.7 million in 2023), and the Port Victoria transhipment and fleet-servicing hub is a services position rather than a goods supply. After canned tuna, there is no second goods category at continental scale.

Current reality

Seychelles is a high-income services-and-fisheries micro-economy of roughly 122,730 people, with total GDP of approximately USD 2.1 billion and GDP per capita near USD 17,900, the highest in Africa. Tourism accounts for 31 per cent of GDP and 41 per cent of exports. Manufacturing value added was about 4.17 per cent of GDP in 2024, down from 4.69 per cent in 2023, though on a per-capita basis manufacturing value added exceeds USD 200, placing Seychelles among the higher-MVA-per-capita sub-Saharan economies, a figure that reflects the cannery's outsized contribution. What is actually manufactured beyond fish processing is small-scale beverages, tobacco, paints, baked goods and light consumer goods for the domestic market, concentrated at the Providence Industrial Estate on Mahé, which was damaged by a 2023 explosion that dampened 2024 activity.

Total goods exports in 2023 were USD 547.8 million, on a multi-year declining trend of minus 35.2 per cent against 2019. The composition was canned tuna at USD 252.9 million (46.2 per cent), mineral fuels as bunker re-export at USD 194 million (35.4 per cent), iron and steel scrap at USD 38.9 million (7.1 per cent), frozen and fresh whole fish at USD 29.6 million (5.4 per cent), fishmeal at USD 7.5 million and fish oils at USD 3.7 million. Destinations are overwhelmingly European, with the canned-tuna market concentrated in France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain. Only about 2.5 per cent of Seychelles' exports by value went to Africa in 2023, with Côte d'Ivoire at 1.4 per cent the main African destination. Continental supply is therefore a real change from current trade patterns rather than an extension of them. Port Victoria is the only deep-water port and handles roughly 95 per cent of national imports, with modest container throughput of about 140,000 TEU annually and planned expansion to 218,000 TEU under a project financed by an EIB and AFD loan of about EUR 29 million plus a EUR 5 million EU grant, some EUR 36.65 million in total.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 5 candidate lines · will change

Seychelles’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Seychelles’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Seychelles will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Seychelles’s 5 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Emerging 2Aspirational 1Grey 1
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Energy goods / petroleum

Re-export/bunkers only, not produced (USD 194m) · Maturity: n/a (re-export) · Competitiveness: n/a
GREY
USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)
271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....
271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c
271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara
271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Seychelles imported USD 307.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: ITC/worldstopexports · 2023

Canned/prepared tuna

EEZ tuna + IOT cannery (one of world's largest) + very high RCA; USD 253.1m exports · Maturity: Finished consumer product · Competitiveness: Meaningful but premium-mismatched vs cheaper canned mackerel/sardine; MEA canned seafood USD 3.20bn (2025)
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince
160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc
160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604
160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved
160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs
160431Fish preparations; caviar
160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Seychelles imported USD 1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: Comtrade/WITS; EU EEAS/EPA; Mordor · 2023/2025

Fish meal / animal fodder

Cannery byproduct; USD 7.5m exports; aquafeed/livestock · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Real African feed demand; Seychelles volume tiny
EMERGING
USD 113.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
230110Flours, meals and pellets; of meat or meat offal, greaves
230120Flours, meals and pellets; of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Seychelles imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 39.3 mNigeria USD 30.6 mZambia USD 11.3 mTunisia USD 7.3 mZimbabwe USD 6.8 mMozambique USD 6.3 mEgypt USD 4.4 mGhana USD 3.1 m

Source: ITC/worldstopexports; FAO GLOBEFISH · 2023

Cinnamon / spice

Heritage Ceylon true cinnamon; ~0.2 t production · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Minor
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 34.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090610Cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers (excluding crushed and ground)
090611Spices; cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum Blume), neither crushed nor ground
090619Spices; cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers, other than cinnamon (Cinnamomum zeylanicum Blume), neither crushed nor groun
090620Spices; cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers, crushed or ground
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Seychelles imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 9 mMorocco USD 4.5 mAlgeria USD 4.1 mSudan USD 3.9 mSouth Africa USD 3.1 mSomalia USD 2.4 mEthiopia USD 2.3 mLibya USD 1.2 m

Source: FAO/Knoema; EU EEAS · 2022

Fish oils (tuna oil)

Cannery byproduct; USD 3.7m exports · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Niche aquafeed/omega-3
EMERGING
USD 29.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
150410Oils of fish; fish-liver oils and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
150420Fats and oils and their fractions; of fish, (excluding liver-oils)
150430Fats and oils and their fractions; of marine mammals
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Seychelles imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 9 mNigeria USD 7.8 mSouth Africa USD 3.7 mEgypt USD 3.6 mMauritius USD 2 mKenya USD 1.2 mAlgeria USD 0.4 mTunisia USD 0.4 m

Source: ITC/worldstopexports; IFFO · 2023/2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Seychelles is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Seychelles buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Seychelles is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 1.41 bn

Seychelles’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

5

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierSeychelles imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Energy goods / petroleumGREYUSD 307.1 mUSD 110.54 bn
Canned/prepared tunaCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 1 mUSD 850.3 m
Fish oils (tuna oil)EMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 29.2 m
Fish meal / animal fodderEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 113.9 m
Cinnamon / spiceASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 34.8 m

Left-hand column: what Seychelles itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Seychelles’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 5 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Seychelles’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Seychelles. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Seychelles’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Seychelles’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01NigeriaUSD 19.98 bn
02South AfricaUSD 15.34 bn
03DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn
04MoroccoUSD 7.66 bn
05EgyptUSD 6.64 bn
06LibyaUSD 4.82 bn
07GhanaUSD 4.51 bn
08KenyaUSD 4.36 bn
09AlgeriaUSD 79.8 m
10SomaliaUSD 33.8 m
11GabonUSD 32.1 m
12ZambiaUSD 11.3 m
13TunisiaUSD 7.7 m
14ZimbabweUSD 6.8 m
15MozambiqueUSD 6.3 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Seychelles. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Seychelles would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Seychelles to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

African buyers accept premium canned tuna

African buyers accept premium canned tuna, or IOT develops a lower-cost product line — cheaper species, retort pouches, smaller cans — priced for African mass markets that currently buy mackerel and sardine.

02

Freight and logistics solutions to the mainland

Consolidated shipping to East and Southern African ports, or processing and co-packing arrangements that shorten the supply line — for example extending the existing Ghana–Seychelles raw-material top-up model to finished goods.

03

AfCFTA rules-of-origin and tariff parity

AfCFTA rules-of-origin and tariff treatment that confer duty-free continental access at least equivalent to current EU EPA terms, and that recognise EEZ-caught tuna as originating.

04

Product reformulation to African price points

Product reformulation toward African price points and Halal and local taste profiles.

05

Stable Thai Union commitment and stock recovery

Continued Thai Union commitment and a holding IOTC yellowfin rebuilding, without which capacity and supply are unreliable.

The binding constraints
·

Remoteness and freight cost Seychelles sits roughly 1,500–1,600 km from the East African coast and carries an estimated ~20% sea-freight premium versus Asian exporters, served by only one deep-water port at Victoria.

·

High wage and energy costs It is a high-income economy with over 90% fossil-fuel electricity; diesel and heavy-fuel-oil generation make power expensive, compounding high wages as a manufacturing-competitiveness constraint.

·

Single anchor-investor dependence IOT is 60% Thai Union-owned, so competitiveness and output are decided externally; production dipped across 2022–2024 on demand fluctuation.

·

EU-market orientation About 88% of exports flow to the EU and only about 2.5% went to Africa in 2023 (Côte d'Ivoire the main African destination at 1.4%), so reorienting to the continent is a structural pivot rather than an extension of current flows.

·

Imported-input dependence and a small labour force Cans, aluminium sheet and packaging are imported in small, high-cost quantities, imposing diseconomies of scale, while a labour force of about 123,000 already leaves the cannery reliant on migrant labour.

·

Tuna-stock sustainability risk The IOTC Scientific Committee declared Indian Ocean yellowfin overfished and subject to overfishing from 2015, with 2022 catches of 410,332 t exceeding the ~349,000 t MSY and a ~30% cut from 2020 levels deemed necessary for recovery by 2030; a contested 2024 assessment reversed this to not-overfished, a finding several independent scientists dispute, while catchability stays climate-sensitive (2023 El Niño cut EEZ catch ~40%).

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Seychelles’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Remoteness is a hard deliverability constraint, not a framing problem. Seychelles lies roughly 1,500 to 1,600 kilometres from the East African coast and carries an estimated 20 per cent sea-freight cost penalty against Southeast Asian competitors. It has only one deep-water port, and this must be weighed against any maritime-hub framing.

05

The anchor capability is decided by a single external investor. The Indian Ocean Tuna cannery is 60 per cent Thai Union owned, so competitiveness and output are determined externally, with production dipping between 2022 and 2024 on demand fluctuation. Stable Thai Union commitment is a precondition for any supply position.

06

The export book is European, and reorientation is a structural pivot. Approximately 88 per cent of exports flow to the European Union under preferential duty-free EPA access, while only about 2.5 per cent of exports by value went to Africa in 2023. Continental supply would require AfCFTA rules-of-origin and tariff treatment at least equivalent to current EPA terms, and recognition of EEZ-caught tuna as originating.

07

There is a premium-species mismatch with African mass demand. Africa's mass market imports cheaper canned mackerel, sardine and pilchard rather than premium tuna. Fulfilment would require African buyers to accept premium canned tuna, or a lower-cost product line using cheaper species, retort pouches or smaller cans, reformulated toward African price points and Halal and local taste profiles.

08

The resource base carries a genuine Tier-1 scientific dispute. The IOTC Scientific Committee declared Indian Ocean yellowfin overfished and subject to overfishing from 2015, with 2022 catches of 410,332 tonnes exceeding the roughly 349,000 tonnes MSY and a sustained 30 per cent cut from 2020 levels deemed necessary for recovery by 2030, yet catches have exceeded 400,000 tonnes every year since. A contested 2024 assessment reversed this finding and several independent scientists dispute it.

09

Catchability is climate-sensitive and the base year is depressed. The 2023 El Niño and a deeper thermocline cut EEZ catchability by about 40 per cent, making 2023 an off-year after an exceptional 2022 that ran 170 per cent above 2021. Multi-year reads are preferred to any single trade year.

10

Cost structure and labour depth work against volume manufacturing. High wages, electricity that is over 90 per cent fossil-fuel generated, and imported cans, aluminium sheet and packaging in small high-cost quantities all raise unit cost. The labour force is roughly 123,000 people in total and the cannery already relies heavily on migrant labour.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

The Seychelles Draft 1 bundle rests on a single, unusually well-evidenced asset: a finished-goods tuna cannery of global scale sitting directly on a 1.3 to 1.37 million square kilometre maritime economic zone, supported by the Port Victoria transhipment agglomeration and confirmed by hard Tier-1 trade data at USD 253.1 million of canned tuna exports in 2023. Everything below that line is thin. Fishmeal at USD 7.5 million and tuna oil at USD 3.7 million are genuine cannery byproducts of tiny volume; frozen whole fish at USD 29.6 million is raw and price-sensitive; minerals, energy goods and non-fish manufacturing are absent, re-export or domestic-market only. What must be proven is therefore not capability but reach: that a lower-cost product line priced for African mass markets can be developed, that consolidated shipping or co-packing arrangements can shorten the supply line to East and Southern African ports, that AfCFTA rules of origin recognise EEZ-caught tuna and confer access at least equivalent to current EU EPA terms, and that both Thai Union's commitment and Indian Ocean yellowfin stock recovery hold. The benchmarks that would change the assessment are stated in the audit: a sustained rise in the African share of exports above 5 to 10 per cent, a new low-cost SKU launched for African retail, and a favourable rules-of-origin determination.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Seychelles is shown 5 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Seychelles to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2