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EswatiniBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Eswatini — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
10
Sole-designated categories proposed for Eswatini
The Minister’s brief · the Chair’s own country · Eswatini
Minister, Eswatini holds what almost no African state can offer — a finished intermediate the continent cannot yet make for itself: the Matsapha concentrate plant that has supplied sixty bottling companies across twenty African countries since 1987, your single largest export earner, anchoring the category that reached USD 650.6 million, some 27.1 per cent of exports, in 2024. Africa ships billions of dollars abroad every year to buy back processing it could own; your concentrate, your refined sugar from the Mhlume refinery, your value-added timber are Eswatini's rightful claim on that outflow. The Right of Supply gives you a twenty-five-year first right to serve that demand — never a subsidy, never a captive contract, because Match-or-Release keeps it yours only while you meet the market's best price and terms. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional, built to be corrected — and your correction, Minister, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Eswatini
The correspondence

From the Chair — written to be corrected.

01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to the Kingdom of Eswatini · the Chair’s own country, on the same terms

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Eswatini · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister,

Eswatini is my own country, and I have put it through exactly the same method as the other fifty-three — no lighter, no heavier. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods a year, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. I sign the same painful cheque you do, which is why I hold this draft to the same test I ask of you.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Eswatini — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Eswatini is in this room

Eswatini's strongest endowment is not a mineral but a finished intermediate: the soft-drink concentrate plant at Matsapha, which has produced concentrate and supplied it to sixty bottling companies across twenty African countries since 1987, and which anchors the HS 33 category that reached about USD 650.6 million, or 27.1 per cent of exports, in 2024. It sits alongside a sugar complex that makes Eswatini Africa's fourth-largest producer at around 670,000 tonnes a season with 170,000 tonnes of refining capacity at Mhlume, and a Swazi-owned forestry operation processing over 1 million tonnes of timber a year at roughly 70 per cent value-add. The honest constraint is power and scale: domestic generation of only about 70 MW against roughly 236 MW peak demand, with around 70 per cent of electricity imported, in an economy of 1.2 million people that cannot match continental-scale plants. Eswatini's contribution is depth in a narrow band of processed goods, not volume.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

The same test I ask of you

I hold Eswatini to its own draft as I ask you to hold yours: mark what is wrong, the lines that do not belong, the capability understated, the buyer misread. The response instrument at the foot of this document is the same one on all fifty-four, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. The correction is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Eswatini

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
19draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Eswatini’s draft bundle. 19 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Raw cane sugar, Soft-drink/beverage concentrate. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 continental anchor · 4 strong contender · 7 emerging · 4 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Eswatini is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 19 candidate lines proposed for Eswatini below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Eswatini. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Eswatini will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Eswatini will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

The prize

USD 620 billion leaves the continent every year.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
19 lines
Eswatini’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Eswatini at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

The beachhead

Where a signature can move demand.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

The method

Finished product · scale · combination.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Eswatini’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

The discipline

Chosen, not padded.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Eswatini’s own capability audit.

Iron ore and iron-ore concentrate (HS 2601)

The audit states plainly that Eswatini exports its minerals essentially raw, with no domestic smelting, refining or steelmaking, and that the country holds genuine iron-ore resource but processes none of it. Recent activity at Ngwenya is tailings reprocessing only, and the category is rated aspirational with low-to-moderate continental demand.

Raw base · industrial screen

Anthracite coal leadership claim

Maloma Colliery production of 327,682 tonnes in 2023 is a record and is documented, but the claim that Eswatini is Africa's leading anthracite producer is a Tier 2 industry claim not independently confirmed by USGS. The audit itself marks it indicative, and the beneficiation stage remains raw.

Evidence tier · raw stage

Economic Complexity Index value or rank

The audit records the ECI as grey and insufficient evidence: Eswatini is excluded from the OEC's current 2022 ranking and no numeric value is extractable from the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas. Older legacy editions are discontinued and the audit is explicit that they should not be presented as current, and that no fabricated value is supplied.

Data availability

Any claim that Eswatini is the most industrialised African state

The audit flags directly that manufacturing value added of 27.64 per cent of GDP is an intensity measure, not absolute scale, and notes that Eswatini is not the most industrialised country on composite or CIP measures. The endowment claim must be stated as intensity only.

Capability inversion · intensity vs scale

Wood pulp

The Usutu pulp mill closed in 2010 following the 2007 and 2008 fires, and the audit states that Eswatini no longer produces wood pulp. The forestry position is sawn timber and downstream wood products, not pulp.

Incumbency · capacity lapsed

Diamonds (HS 7102) and gold (HS 7108)

Dvokolwako is dormant and the Piggs Peak gold position is dormant or artisanal. Both are graded grey, raw stage, with low continental demand, alongside closed asbestos operations at Bulembu and Havelock inactive since around 2001.

Dormant asset
The endowment

What Eswatini actually holds.

08 · Endowment
What Eswatini actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Eswatini. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Eswatini's endowment is narrow but unusually well-processed. Three assets define it: irrigated sugarcane in the lowveld, commercial timber plantations, and a globally anomalous Coca-Cola soft-drink concentrate plant at Matsapha. On sugar, Eswatini is Africa's fourth-largest producer and the twenty-fifth largest worldwide, contributing about USD 285 million a year to the economy, with national output around 670,000 tonnes in a normal season from roughly 5.6 million tonnes of cane on some 57,000 to 60,800 hectares. Royal Eswatini Sugar Corporation runs the Mhlume and Simunye mills at 780 tonnes per hour, producing over 430,000 tonnes, together with a refinery at Mhlume rated at 170,000 tonnes refined and a 32-million-litre ethanol plant; Ubombo Sugar produces roughly 250,000 to 260,000 tonnes. In forestry, Montigny Investments, which is Swazi-owned, manages about 80,000 hectares with 55,000 hectares under active management, processes over 1 million tonnes of timber a year and value-adds around 70 per cent across sawmills, a chipboard plant, an essential-oil plant and pole manufacturing. Sawn coniferous wood exports run at about USD 80 million a year.

The industrial base is the point of difference. Manufacturing value added stood at 27.64 per cent of GDP in 2023, the highest manufacturing intensity in Africa and the only low-middle-income African country above UNIDO's 20 per cent threshold. The Coca-Cola concentrate plant at Matsapha has produced concentrate and supplied it to sixty bottling companies across twenty countries in Africa since 1987, and is Eswatini's single largest export earner; concentrate falls under HS 3302. Alongside it sit sugar refining and ethanol, textiles and garments at Matsapha carrying some 15,000 to 17,000 jobs, wood products, paper and packaging through Eswatini Paper Mills, and soft drinks and brewing. Eswatini also hosts what an industry processor describes as the largest citrus, specifically grapefruit, canning operation in the world, plus around 50,000 tonnes a year of pineapple processing for United Kingdom and European supermarkets.

Specialisation is confirmed by export structure rather than a published index: revealed comparative advantage above one in beverage concentrate (HS 3302), raw cane sugar (HS 1701), coniferous sawn wood (HS 4407), chemical residuals and apparel (HS 61 and 62). A peer-reviewed study confirms sustained revealed comparative advantage in sugar exports over 2001 to 2021, with slight recent deterioration. The Harvard Atlas frames Eswatini's largest goods exports as sitting in high-complexity products, chemicals and agriculture, and notes fifteen new products added since 2008, contributing about USD 117 income per capita by 2023, with adjacencies pointing toward further food-and-beverage processing, downstream wood products and apparel deepening.

The endowment in depth

Mining contributes only about 0.5% of GDP (2023), and Eswatini is not a raw-ore powerhouse, but it holds two notable subsurface assets. Maloma Colliery has produced anthracite since 1992/93; output rose about 52% to a record 327,682 metric tons in 2023, on proven reserves cited at roughly 19 million saleable tonnes, historically exported entirely to South Africa but now reported to reach Vietnam, Poland and Finland, with industry sources describing Eswatini as Africa's leading anthracite producer (a Tier-2 claim not independently confirmed by USGS). The Ngwenya iron-ore mine — claimed to be the world's oldest — is dormant for primary mining: the remaining lease resource is about 96 million tonnes at 46.5% Fe, with roughly 28 million tonnes of stockpiled slimes at 43.7% Fe and a total national resource estimated at about 618 million tonnes at 36% Fe, and recent activity is confined to tailings reprocessing. Diamonds at Dvokolwako, gold in the Piggs Peak area, kaolin and silica are minor or dormant, and the Bulembu/Havelock asbestos mine has been closed since around 2001. The beneficiation reality is stark: minerals are exported essentially raw, with no domestic smelting, refining or steelmaking, so the country holds genuine iron-ore resource but processes none of it.

On energy the position is tight and defining. Eswatini has no oil or gas and only about 70 to 76.5 MW of domestic installed generation — 69.6 MW total, of which 60.1 MW is hydropower (Africa Energy Portal) — against peak demand of roughly 236 MW, which rose from 221 MW in 2014. It imports approximately 70% of its electricity from South Africa's Eskom, with the IMF 2025 Article IV putting reliance at 70 to 80% from South Africa and Mozambique. State utility EEC operates four hydro plants totalling about 60.4 MW (Edwaleni, Maguga, Ezulwini and Maguduza) plus the 10 MW Lavumisa solar PV plant. The sugar mills add significant bagasse cogeneration — Ubombo at about 40 MW installed (roughly 165 GWh a year, of which about 60 GWh is sold to the grid) and RES Corp at about 65.5 MW. Energy import-dependence is the central constraint on any heavy or energy-intensive manufacturing.

Agriculture, forestry and food processing carry the economy. Eswatini is Africa's fourth-largest sugar producer and the twenty-fifth-largest worldwide, contributing about USD 285 million a year, with national output of roughly 670,000 tonnes in a normal season; USDA FAS forecast 652,057 MT for MY2023/24 (up 4% on improved cane deliveries and recovery rate) and about 660,000 MT for MY2025/26, on cane of about 5.6 million MT across roughly 57,000 to 60,800 hectares. Royal Eswatini Sugar Corp runs the Mhlume and Simunye mills (780 t/hr), producing over 430,000 t plus a Mhlume refinery (170,000 t refined) and a 32-million-litre ethanol plant, while Ubombo Sugar (Illovo/ABF, 60%) produces about 250,000 to 260,000 t, all marketed through the Eswatini Sugar Association. The country hosts what an industry processor describes as the largest citrus (grapefruit) canning operation in the world, plus about 50,000 t a year of pineapple processing for UK and EU supermarkets. In forestry, Swazi-owned Montigny Investments manages about 80,000 ha (55,000 ha under active management), processes over 1 million tons of timber a year and value-adds around 70% across sawmills, a chipboard plant, an essential-oil plant and pole manufacturing, with sawn coniferous wood exports of about USD 80 million a year; the Usutu pulp mill closed in 2010 after the 2007/08 fires, so Eswatini no longer produces wood pulp. Eswatini Meat Industries is the only licensed beef exporter and holds EU Economic Partnership Agreement quota access but exports well below quota, while cotton feeds a revitalising domestic textile chain and maize remains a net import.

Eswatini's industrial base is anomalously deep for its size. Manufacturing value added was 27.64% of GDP in 2023 (World Bank) — the highest manufacturing intensity in Africa and the only low-middle-income African country above UNIDO's 20% threshold, though this is intensity rather than absolute scale. The Coca-Cola Conco concentrate plant at Matsapha/Mahlanya has produced soft-drink concentrate and supplied sixty bottling companies across 20 African countries since 1987, is the single largest export earner, and falls under HS 3302; a 2008 USAID report estimated that about 35% of national foreign-exchange earnings came from Coca-Cola's operations, though output and destinations are commercially secret. Around it sit sugar refining and ethanol, AGOA-linked textiles and garments with Taiwanese investment supporting some 15,000 to 17,000 jobs, wood products, Eswatini Paper Mills and Eswatini Beverages, clustered mainly at Matsapha Industrial Estate alongside the Royal Science & Technology Park and the SEZ regime under the 2018 SEZ Act. Human capital is thin: the labour force is small against a population of about 1.2 million, youth unemployment among 15 to 24 year-olds reached 56% in 2023 (the IMF cites 58%), the Human Capital Index of 134 sits above the Sub-Saharan average of 127 but below the lower-middle-income average of 153, and the SEZ wage threshold is around USD 330 a month. Logistically the country is landlocked and transit-dependent through South African ports (Durban, Richards Bay) and Mozambique's Maputo, served by Eswatini Railways via the Goba line to Maputo and the Richards Bay/Durban network; membership of SACU and the rand-pegged Common Monetary Area (lilangeni at 1:1 with the rand) gives frictionless trade and proximity to South Africa's industrial heartland, even as Conco's own experience shows the flip side of poor regional roads and inconsistent customs.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Eswatini's headline complexity metric is genuinely unavailable rather than weak: it is excluded from the OEC's current (2022) ECI ranking — its profile states it "does not have data regarding Economic Complexity Index" — and a numeric value could not be retrieved from the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas (Atlas 10.0, 2024), where the figure renders only in the interactive app, so it is marked grey and no value is fabricated. Legacy SITC editions historically assigned an ECI, but those are discontinued and should not be presented as current. Specialisation is instead confirmed by export structure: revealed comparative advantage above 1 is evident in beverage/soft-drink concentrate (HS 3302), raw cane sugar (HS 1701), coniferous sawn wood (HS 4407), chemical residuals and apparel (HS 61/62), and a peer-reviewed study (Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 2023) confirms Eswatini held sustained comparative advantage in sugar exports over 2001 to 2021, with only slight recent deterioration; exact RCA index numbers were not retrievable from the dynamic WITS/UNCTAD tools.

The broader productive-capacity read is sober. On UNCTAD's Productive Capacities Index Eswatini scored 37.6 and ranked 144th (2022 release) — weak overall capacity, dragged down particularly by a transport sub-score of 19.3 that reflects its landlocked position, and by structural-change weakness, despite relatively higher natural-capital and private-sector scores. The Harvard Atlas nonetheless frames Eswatini's largest goods exports as high-complexity products in chemicals and agriculture, and notes it added 15 new products since 2008, contributing roughly USD 117 of income per capita by 2023, with adjacencies pointing toward further food-and-beverage processing, downstream wood products and apparel deepening. The trajectory is mixed: diversification signals are mildly positive, but total exports declined about 1% a year over the five years to 2023.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Soft-drink and beverage concentrate under HS 3302 is Eswatini's single most defensible continental supply position because it uniquely combines all five tests the audit applies. Its input base is local: Conco draws on locally sourced sugar and an established food-grade process plant at Matsapha. Its processing position is high — this is a finished intermediate, the highest-value step before bottling rather than raw ore, so Eswatini already operates at the top of the value chain. On competitiveness, the plant has produced concentrate and supplied sixty bottling companies across 20 African countries since 1987 (SAIIA) and is the country's single largest export earner: HS 33 "scents" reached about USD 650.6 million, or 27.1% of exports, in 2024, and a 2008 USAID report estimated that Coca-Cola operations generated roughly 35% of national foreign-exchange earnings. It is also highly deliverable — high value-to-weight and moved by road and rail across borders, which partially insulates it from landlocked transit penalties — and it faces large, growing intra-African beverage demand. The mechanism of advantage is durable: an anchor multinational using Eswatini as a regional concentrate hub inside SACU and the Common Monetary Area.

The honest limits are equally clear. This is a single-investor, single-product dependency: a Coca-Cola decision to relocate concentrate production to a larger bottling market would erase the position overnight. It is opaque — output, margins and exact destinations are commercially secret, so the dominance is inferred from aggregate HS 33 data and a dated 2008 forex-share estimate rather than firm-level disclosure — which leaves it vulnerable to transfer-pricing scrutiny. And it is exposed to sugar-tax-driven decline in beverage demand. The two runner-up positions carry less concentration risk: raw and refined sugar (HS 1701), where Eswatini is Africa's fourth-largest producer with existing refining capacity into a structurally net-importing continent, and sawn timber and wood products (HS 4407/4409), where Montigny's integrated, Swazi-owned, value-adding operation serves an under-supplied regional construction market.

Current reality

Eswatini is a landlocked lower-middle-income monarchy of about 1.2 million people, with GDP of roughly USD 4.85 billion in 2022 and GDP per capita of about USD 4,305. Total exports in 2024 were approximately USD 2.4 billion, led by HS 33 scents, dominated by beverage concentrate, at about USD 650.6 million or 27.1 per cent, and sugar and sugar confectionery at about USD 594.2 million or 24.7 per cent, followed by sawn wood, coal and apparel. Its trade orientation is already continental: about 87.7 per cent of exports by value went to African countries in 2024, and UNCTAD ranked Eswatini the leading intra-African exporter at 70.6 per cent over 2015 to 2017. South Africa is the first partner at roughly 64 to 69 per cent of exports, and membership of SACU and the rand-pegged Common Monetary Area makes proximity to South Africa's industrial heartland a genuine competitiveness asset.

The constraints are equally clear. Domestic installed generation capacity is only about 70 to 76.5 MW against peak demand of roughly 236 MW, and Eswatini imports around 70 per cent of its electricity from South Africa; energy import-dependence is the central constraint on heavy or energy-intensive manufacturing. UNCTAD's Productive Capacities Index places Eswatini at 37.6, ranking 144th, with a particularly weak transport score of 19.3 reflecting its landlocked position. All overseas trade transits South African or Mozambican ports. Youth unemployment was 56 per cent among those aged 15 to 24 in 2023, only 15 per cent of MSMEs can access formal credit against a financing gap of about 49 per cent of GDP, and total exports declined roughly 1 per cent a year over the five years to 2023.

The mandate

Sole designated supplier — one category, one country.

09 · The mandate
Sole designated supplier · Draft 1 · one category, one country

Eswatini’s proposed continental supply mandate

Every category below is proposed for Eswatini alone — across all fifty-four member states, no category on this page appears on any other state’s mandate. Only finished, procurable end products are listed; the endowment behind each survives as an origin tag, and the full derivation sits in the methodology appendix. Every figure is re-derived from the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database (2023).

USD 12.33 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · across 10 designated categories — sole-designation means no double counting
3 / 7flagship mandate lines / full-catalogue lines

Band 1 · The flagship mandate

Fruit juices & concentrates

T1 · OPERATIONAL
HS 2009 · citrus/cane → concentrate

Matsapha concentrate plant, 60 bottlers/20 countries (audit)

USD 596.6 mcontinental import demand · 2023Eswatini itself imports USD 8.5 m

Refined sugar

T1 · OPERATIONAL
HS 1701 · cane → refined sugar

RES Mhlume refinery 170k t (pack)

USD 8.84 bncontinental import demand · 2023Eswatini itself imports USD 4 m

Canned fruit & vegetables

T2 · BUILD-OUT
HS 200820, 200830, 200840, 200850, 200870, 200897, 200899, 2005, 2002 · orchards → canning

Canned citrus & pineapple lines (pack)

USD 999.9 mcontinental import demand · 2023Eswatini itself imports USD 6.2 m

Band 2 · The full product catalogue

Every remaining designated end product, to the smallest line — ordered by continental demand.

Sugar confectionery
HS 1704USD 566.4 m
Bottle caps & closures
HS 8309USD 557.2 m
Ceramic sanitaryware
HS 6910USD 400 m
Thermometers and pyrometers; liquid filled, for direct
HS 9025USD 153.6 m
Navigational instruments and appliances; direction
HS 9014USD 103.6 m
Tools, hand; files, rasps and similar tools
HS 8203USD 69.7 m
Chlorates; of sodium
HS 2829USD 44 m

Proposed analytical allocation prepared for discussion by the Right of Supply research team. Formal country–category allocation is subject to the AU matching exercise; freight-heavy goods (cement, bricks, concrete, glass) are weighted toward proximate producers, and Match-or-Release is why sole designation survives geography — a distant buyer is simply released.

The balance

Eswatini is a buyer before it is a supplier.

10 · Balance
What Eswatini buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Eswatini is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 2.12 bn

Eswatini’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

10

Categories in the proposed sole-designation mandate. Count is not a measure of value.

2

Categories rated T1 operational — a named, working facility stands behind the line today.

Designated categoryTierEswatini imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Fruit juices & concentratesT1 · OPERATIONALUSD 8.5 mUSD 596.6 m
Sugar confectioneryT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 6.9 mUSD 566.4 m
Canned fruit & vegetablesT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 6.2 mUSD 999.9 m
Refined sugarT1 · OPERATIONALUSD 4 mUSD 8.84 bn
Bottle caps & closuresT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 1.9 mUSD 557.2 m
Ceramic sanitarywareT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 1.3 mUSD 400 m
Thermometers and pyrometers; liquid filled, for directT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 0.2 mUSD 153.6 m
Tools, hand; files, rasps and similar toolsT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 0.2 mUSD 69.7 m
Navigational instruments and appliances; directionT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 0.1 mUSD 103.6 m
Chlorates; of sodiumT2 · BUILD-OUTUSD 0 mUSD 44 m

Left-hand column: what Eswatini itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Eswatini’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 19 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Eswatini’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Eswatini. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Eswatini’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

The buyers

A continent of demand, mapped.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Eswatini’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 4.46 bn
02MoroccoUSD 3.31 bn
03South AfricaUSD 3.17 bn
04AlgeriaUSD 2.58 bn
05UgandaUSD 2.03 bn
06SudanUSD 1.62 bn
07BotswanaUSD 1.3 bn
08NigeriaUSD 1.29 bn
09KenyaUSD 1.14 bn
10LibyaUSD 1.07 bn
11DjiboutiUSD 839.1 m
12SomaliaUSD 765.9 m
13TunisiaUSD 479.8 m
14GhanaUSD 370 m
15SenegalUSD 309.2 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Eswatini. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

Due diligence

What would have to be true.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Eswatini would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Eswatini to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable industrial power

Eswatini must close the roughly 160 MW generation gap through renewables, bagasse, solar IPPs and hydro expansion to de-risk any processing scale-up and reduce Eskom exposure ahead of the lapsing supply agreement.

02

A retained and widened concentrate anchor

The Coca-Cola relationship must be retained and deepened, ideally by attracting a second beverage-base or flavour-house investor, to reduce the single-investor risk that underpins the largest export earner.

03

Sugar moved downstream

The sugar mix must shift toward refined sugar and downstream products such as confectionery and ethanol to capture AfCFTA import-substitution value while Africa remains a net importer.

04

Deeper timber value-add

Montigny's value-add trajectory must continue, with secured regional SADC market access for finished wood products.

05

Dependable trade corridors

Reliable rail and road corridor capacity and harmonised customs under AfCFTA rules of origin must be locked in to make cross-border supply dependable.

06

Trade-policy diversification

Apparel must be diversified away from AGOA dependence toward AfCFTA and regional buyers.

The binding constraints
·

Power import dependency About 70% of electricity is imported and domestic capacity is only around 70 MW against roughly 236 MW peak demand, which caps any energy-intensive scale-up and exposes industry to the lapsing Eskom supply agreement.

·

Landlocked logistics All overseas trade transits South African or Mozambican ports, and corridor reliability and customs friction raise costs — a penalty documented for the Conco concentrate operation by SAIIA.

·

Single-buyer and feedstock dependency The concentrate position rests on one investor, Conco, while sugar is exposed to EU and US preference erosion and to South African market-protection disputes, concentrating risk in the two largest earners.

·

The AGOA cliff and trade-preference exposure Apparel depends on US AGOA preferences yet Eswatini exported only about USD 3.7 million of textiles to the US in 2024 (OTEXA), and the country is excluded from China's new zero-tariff scheme because it recognises Taiwan.

·

Capital and skills Only 15% of MSMEs can access formal credit, with a financing gap of about 49% of GDP (World Bank 2025), and skills are imported in health, manufacturing and other sectors against a small labour force.

·

Governance and transparency Under an absolute monarchy the sovereign wealth fund Tibiyo Taka Ngwane holds major stakes in sugar (53.1% of RES, 40% of Ubombo) and in beverages with limited transparency, and the 2021 civil unrest signalled political risk.

The devil’s advocate

Risk named, not hidden.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Eswatini’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power import dependency caps any energy-intensive scale-up. Around 70 per cent of electricity is imported and domestic capacity is only about 70 MW against roughly 236 MW peak demand. The audit holds that Eswatini must close a gap of about 160 MW through renewables, bagasse, solar IPPs and hydro expansion to de-risk processing scale-up ahead of the lapsing Eskom supply agreement.

05

The trump card is a single-investor dependency. Concentrate output rests on one company at one site, and the audit is explicit that a decision to relocate production to a larger bottling market would erase the position. The stated requirement is to retain and deepen the relationship and, ideally, attract a second beverage-base or flavour-house investor.

06

Landlocked logistics import cost and unreliability. All overseas trade transits South African or Mozambican ports, and the transport component of the Productive Capacities Index scores 19.3. Corridor reliability and inconsistent customs procedures raise cross-border costs, a problem documented for the concentrate operation itself.

07

Scale limits are structural, not temporary. A 1.2-million-person economy cannot match continental-scale plants, and the audit states that output ceilings are real. Any allocation must be sized to a niche processed-goods position rather than to volume leadership.

08

Sugar and apparel both sit on eroding preference regimes. Sugar is exposed to EU and US preference erosion and to South African market-protection disputes. Apparel depends on US AGOA preferences, with only about USD 3.7 million of textiles exported to the United States in 2024, and Eswatini is excluded from China's new zero-tariff scheme because it recognises Taiwan.

09

Capital and skills are thin. Only 15 per cent of MSMEs can access formal credit against a financing gap of around 49 per cent of GDP, and skills are imported in health, manufacturing and other sectors. Youth unemployment stood at 56 per cent in 2023, with the IMF citing 58 per cent.

10

Governance and transparency carry risk. Eswatini is an absolute monarchy, and the sovereign wealth fund Tibiyo Taka Ngwane holds major stakes in sugar, at 53.1 per cent of Royal Eswatini Sugar Corporation and 40 per cent of Ubombo, and in beverages, with limited transparency. Civil unrest occurred in 2021.

The synthesis

The road to Draft 2.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Eswatini's Draft 1 bundle rests on three positions the audit corroborates through multiple Tier 1 sources: beverage concentrate under HS 3302, raw and refined sugar under HS 1701 and 1701.99, and sawn timber and wood products under HS 4407, 4409, 4410 and 4418, supported by the continent's highest manufacturing intensity at 27.64 per cent of GDP and an export book already directed 87.7 per cent toward African markets. What must be proven is capacity to deliver against those positions rather than the positions themselves. The generation gap of roughly 160 MW must close before processing can scale; the concentrate relationship must be retained and, ideally, matched by a second investor; the sugar mix must shift further toward refined product, confectionery and ethanol to capture import-substitution value in a continent that remains a net sugar importer; corridor capacity and harmonised customs under AfCFTA rules of origin must be locked in; and apparel must diversify away from AGOA dependence toward regional buyers. The mineral endowment, including the Ngwenya iron-ore resource, should not be counted, since the audit records no domestic smelting, refining or steelmaking of any kind.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Eswatini is shown 19 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Eswatini to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

16 · Appendix
The honesty layer · collapsed by design

Methodology appendix

The mandate above shows finished products only. This appendix preserves the full working: the pre-screen candidate feed from Eswatini’s productive-capacity audit (including raw and intermediate lines), the screens, and the derivations.

Open the full methodology — candidate feed, screens and derivations

Screens & haircuts

Four screens per line: Government · Off-continent · Industrial/beneficiation · Balance. Indicative haircut factors: government intensity high 0.65 / medium 0.40 / low 0.15; off-continent substitutability high 0.75 / medium 0.50 / low 0.30. Screened values are produced at Draft 2 after the bilateral trade re-pull — no screened figure is asserted on this page. A statistical residual of ≈ USD 12.5 bn (unclassified HS 999999) is parked here and excluded from all visible figures.

The pre-screen candidate feed (19 lines)

Gross continental demand per candidate line — market context, never a supply claim; lines here may be raw or intermediate and several are claimed by more than one state. This feed is what the screens and the continental allocation were applied to.

Raw cane sugar

4th-largest African producer ~670,000 t/yr · Maturity: Intermediate (raw) · Competitiveness: High
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 8.84 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170111Raw cane sugar (excluding added flavouring or colouring)
170112Sugars; beet sugar, raw, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170113Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouri
170114Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing add
170191Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 997.1 mNigeria USD 981.1 mAlgeria USD 931.8 mSudan USD 796.2 mEgypt USD 728.9 mDjibouti USD 424.9 mSomalia USD 393.7 mKenya USD 391.1 m

Source: USDA FAS; Who Owns Whom; ESA · 2023/2025

Refined sugar

RES Mhlume refinery 170,000 t · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: High
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 4.12 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Eswatini imported USD 2.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Sudan USD 784 mDjibouti USD 414.2 mKenya USD 354.6 mMauritania USD 301.7 mSomalia USD 285.4 mLibya USD 251 mTunisia USD 202.6 mGhana USD 180.9 m

Source: RES Corp · 2023

Anthracite coal

Maloma ~327,682 t 2023 · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 3.41 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270111Coal; anthracite, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated
270112Coal; bituminous, whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated
270119Coal; (other than anthracite and bituminous), whether or not pulverised but not agglomerated
270120Briquettes, ovoids and similar solid fuels; manufactured from coal
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 11.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 1.38 bnEgypt USD 587 mSouth Africa USD 521.1 mSenegal USD 227 mKenya USD 128.9 mEthiopia USD 114.1 mDR Congo USD 100.9 mMauritius USD 94.8 m

Source: trade.gov; Maloma · 2023

Gold

Piggs Peak dormant/artisanal · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low
GREY
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: African Mining · 2023

Iron ore concentrate

Ngwenya ~96Mt at 46.5% Fe (tailings) · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low-moderate
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: Mining industry of Eswatini · 2023

Soft-drink/beverage concentrate

Conco supplies 60 bottlers across 20 African countries since 1987; largest export earner · Maturity: Finished intermediate · Competitiveness: High
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 2.4 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
330210Odoriferous substances and mixtures; of a kind used in the food or drink industries
330290Odoriferous substances and mixtures; used as raw materials in industries other than the food or drink industries
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Eswatini imported USD 40.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 551.6 mAlgeria USD 279.7 mNigeria USD 201.1 mEgypt USD 168.3 mLibya USD 148.3 mKenya USD 101.2 mUganda USD 97.4 mMorocco USD 95.3 m

Source: SAIIA; WITS/Comtrade; worldstopexports · 2022/2024

Grid electricity (bagasse/renewables)

Bagasse cogeneration surplus · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Low
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271600Electrical energy
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 83.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: EEC/ESERA · 2024

Sawn/coniferous timber

Montigny ~1M t/yr, ~70% value-add · Maturity: Intermediate-finished · Competitiveness: Moderate-high
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...
440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san
440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length
440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))
440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le
440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise
440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or
440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm
440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...
440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or
440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm
440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 9 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 1.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 728.6 mAlgeria USD 312.7 mMorocco USD 287.1 mSouth Africa USD 114.3 mLibya USD 46.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.3 mSenegal USD 36.2 m

Source: Montigny; trade.gov · 2024

Diamonds

Dvokolwako dormant · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low
GREY
USD 1.75 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710210Diamonds; whether or not worked, but not mounted or set, unsorted
710221Diamonds; industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set
710229Diamonds; industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set
710231Diamonds; non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set
710239Diamonds; non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Botswana USD 970.9 mSouth Africa USD 578.4 mNamibia USD 111.7 mMauritius USD 76 mMorocco USD 5.8 mTunisia USD 3 mLiberia USD 1.2 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Source: Mining industry of Eswatini · 2023

Paper/corrugated packaging

Eswatini Paper Mills · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 1.21 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
481910Paper and paperboard; cartons, boxes and cases, of corrugated paper or paperboard
481920Paper and paperboard; folding cartons, boxes and cases, of non-corrugated paper or paperboard
481930Paper and paperboard; sacks and bags of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding or fibres, having a base of a width of 40cm
481940Paper and paperboard; sacks and bags, including cones, of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding or fibres, having a base
481950Paper and paperboard; packing containers, including record sleeves, of paper, paperboard, cellulose wadding or fibres, n
481960Paper and paperboard; box files, letter trays, storage boxes and similar articles, used in offices, shops or the like of
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 15.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 121.3 mMorocco USD 104.7 mEgypt USD 103.6 mSouth Africa USD 102.5 mLibya USD 94.3 mSenegal USD 46 mGhana USD 43.9 mMozambique USD 41.4 m

Source: papaverAI · 2026

Bottled soft drinks

Eswatini Coca-Cola Beverages · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 1.02 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
220210Waters; including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured
220290Non-alcoholic beverages (excluding water, fruit or vegetable juices and milk)
220291Non-alcoholic beverages; non-alcoholic beer
220299Non-alcoholic beverages; other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or vegetabl
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Eswatini imported USD 18.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Botswana USD 161.9 mSouth Africa USD 123.5 mLibya USD 75.6 mMorocco USD 65.6 mGhana USD 57 mEgypt USD 41.9 mCote dIvoire USD 37.9 mSouth Sudan USD 35.5 m

Source: CCBA · 2019

Sugar confectionery

Sugar feedstock · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 566.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170410Sugar confectionery; chewing gum, whether or not sugar-coated, not containing cocoa
170490Sugar confectionery; (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoa
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Eswatini imported USD 6.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 82.6 mLibya USD 50.5 mSudan USD 39.9 mMorocco USD 35.7 mGhana USD 33.6 mUganda USD 29.4 mSomalia USD 25.3 mNamibia USD 19.3 m

Source: worldstopexports · 2024

Cane ethanol

RES 32M-litre plant · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 511.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
220710Undenatured ethyl alcohol; of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80% vol. or higher
220720Ethyl alcohol and other spirits; denatured, of any strength
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 100.3 mCameroon USD 55.5 mGhana USD 54.6 mKenya USD 52.7 mAngola USD 42.1 mTanzania USD 39.2 mCote dIvoire USD 32.3 mDR Congo USD 15.9 m

Source: RES Corp · 2023

Cotton lint/yarn

Cotton Board vertical integration · Maturity: Raw-intermediate · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520100Cotton; not carded or combed
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: trade.gov · 2024

Canned citrus & pineapple

Large citrus canning operation · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 290.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
200811Nuts; ground-nuts, whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening matter or spirit
200819Nuts and other seeds; whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening matter or spirit (excluding ground-nuts ex
200820Fruit; pineapples, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, othe
200830Fruit; citrus, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, other sw
200840Fruit; pears, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, other swe
200850Fruit; apricots, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, other
200860Fruit; cherries, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, other
200870Fruit; peaches, including nectarines, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007 and 2008, whether or not
200880Fruit; strawberries, prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in heading no. 2007, whether or not containing added sugar, ot
200891Fruit, palm hearts; prepared or preserved, whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening matter or spirit
200892Mixtures of fruits, nuts and other edible parts of plants, prepared or preserved, whether or...
200893Fruit; cranberries (Vaccinium macrocarpon, Vaccinium oxycoccos); Iingonberries (Vaccinium vitis-idaea), prepared or pres
200897Fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants; mixtures (other than those of subheading no 2008.19); prepared or preserved in ways n.e.c. in headings 2007 and 2008, whether or not containing added sugar, or other sweetening matter or spirit, n.e.c.
200899Fruit, nuts and other edible parts of plants; prepared or preserved, whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening matter or spirit, n.e.c. in heading no. 2008
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Eswatini imported USD 3.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 44.1 mMorocco USD 26.6 mEthiopia USD 23.5 mLibya USD 22.9 mKenya USD 18.8 mAlgeria USD 17.8 mSomalia USD 17 mEgypt USD 16.4 m

Source: Peaty Mills; trade.gov · 2024

Essential/citrus oils

Montigny essential-oil plant · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 96.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
330111Oils of bergamot, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330112Oils, essential; of orange (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330113Oils, essential; of lemon (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330114Oils of lime, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330119Oils, essential; of citrus fruits n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330121Oils of geranium, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330122Oils of jasmin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330123Oils of lavender or of lavandin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330124Oils, essential; of peppermint (Mentha piperita), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes
330125Oils, essential; of mints (excluding peppermint), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes
330126Oils of vetiver, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330129Oils, essential; n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330130Resinoids
330190Oils, essential; concentrates in fats, fixed oils, waxes and the like, terpenic by-products, aqueous distillates and solutions, extracted oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 3301
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 8.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 24.1 mTanzania USD 13.2 mEgypt USD 9.7 mEswatini your own imports USD 8.3 mAlgeria USD 6.5 mNigeria USD 6.3 mKenya USD 2.8 mAngola USD 2.3 m

Eswatini is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Montigny; OEC · 2023

Beef/meat products

EMI sole exporter; EU EPA quota · Maturity: Intermediate-finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 58.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
020110Meat; of bovine animals, carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020120Meat; of bovine animals, cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020130Meat; of bovine animals, boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Eswatini imported USD 1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 20.9 mEgypt USD 12.2 mMozambique USD 8.2 mMauritius USD 6.8 mLesotho USD 3.2 mSeychelles USD 2.3 mEswatini your own imports USD 1 mGabon USD 1 m

Eswatini is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: trade.gov · 2024

Molasses

Sugar by-product · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 34.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170310Sugars; molasses, from sugar cane, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar
170390Sugars; molasses, from sugar beet, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eswatini imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 10.6 mUganda USD 4.5 mTunisia USD 4 mMorocco USD 3.7 mSouth Africa USD 3 mMalawi USD 1.6 mNamibia USD 1.4 mBotswana USD 1.3 m

Source: ESA · 2023

Wood products (poles/chipboard/doors)

Montigny integrated multi-plant · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 31.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440910Wood; coniferous (including unassembled strips and friezes for parquet flooring), continuously shaped along any edges, e
440920Wood, incl. strips and friezes for parquet flooring, not assembled, continuously shaped "tongued,...
440921Wood; bamboo (including unassembled strips and friezes for parquet flooring), continuously shaped along any edges, ends
440922Wood; tropical (including unassembled strips and friezes for parquet flooring), continuously shaped along any edges, end
440929Wood; non-coniferous, other than bamboo or tropical wood, (including unassembled strips and friezes for parquet flooring
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Eswatini imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 13.1 mMorocco USD 4.1 mBotswana USD 2.5 mEgypt USD 1.2 mNamibia USD 1.2 mTunisia USD 1.1 mLesotho USD 0.9 mLibya USD 0.7 m

Source: Montigny · 2024

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2