Right of Supply — São Tomé and Príncipe

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Gareth Guadalupe, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · São Tomé and Príncipe · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Guadalupe,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for São Tomé and Príncipe — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why São Tomé and Príncipe is in this room

São Tomé and Príncipe's strongest endowment is premium single-origin cocoa and the finished chocolate made from it. The islands were the world's top cocoa exporter between 1905 and 1913, roughly 30 per cent of current output is classified fine or flavour, and rare low-hybridisation forastero and amelonado genetics survive, particularly on Príncipe. Unlike most origin claims, this one is already matched by onshore processing: Claudio Corallo's tree-to-bar operation, Diogo Vaz with 13 AVPA origin-chocolate awards, and the CECAB co-operative's AfDB-funded chocolate factory at Guadalupe. The honest constraint is scale and deliverability. Total cocoa output is only about 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes a year, installed power is roughly 35.8 MW at some 0.30 dollars per kWh with only around 58 per cent available, there is no deep-water port, and the cold chain that heat-sensitive chocolate requires is weak. This is a high-margin niche capability, not a mass continental supply line, and it should be treated as such.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to São Tomé and Príncipe, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for São Tomé and Príncipe

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

11draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

São Tomé and Príncipe’s draft bundle. 11 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Cocoa beans (fine/flavour, organic). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 strong contender · 3 emerging · 3 aspirational · 4 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for São Tomé and Príncipe is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 11 candidate lines proposed for São Tomé and Príncipe below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for São Tomé and Príncipe. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what São Tomé and Príncipe will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That São Tomé and Príncipe will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

11 lines

São Tomé and Príncipe’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for São Tomé and Príncipe at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and São Tomé and Príncipe’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from São Tomé and Príncipe’s own capability audit.

Crude petroleum (HS 2709)

The audit records acreage in the Joint Development Zone and the maritime economic zone but no commercial discovery has ever been made; exploration wells in JDZ Blocks 1 to 4 between 2006 and 2013 found only sub-commercial gas and oil, and Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec and Total all withdrew, with TotalEnergies exiting again in 2024. The World Bank concluded that oil production should not be included in any baseline scenario for the country.

Raw base · industrial screen

Transhipment and bunkering logistics

The Fernão Dias deep-water port remains a concept. Tendered in November 2019 with earlier iterations involving China Harbour Engineering, CRBC and Macau Legend, none has been built, and subsequent port-management concessions to Safebond and Africa Global Logistics were suspended. The audit classifies transhipment and bunkering hub status as aspirational, not installed.

Not built · installed-capacity screen

Prepared and preserved tuna (HS 1604)

The maritime economic zone tuna resource is genuinely large, but there is no domestic cannery and the industrial catch is taken by foreign European Union fleets under the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement, whose 2025 to 2029 protocol allows about 6,500 tonnes a year. Value is rent-captured offshore, with no domestic value capture mechanism, so the category remains aspirational until onshore processing exists.

Capability inversion

Cocoa butter, paste and powder (HS 1803, 1804, 1805)

Bean feedstock exists and CECAB has a nascent grinding laboratory, but grinding capacity is largely absent and would have to be built. The audit rates the category aspirational despite the country's strength in the raw bean immediately upstream.

Capability inversion

Minerals and metals

There are no known commercial mineral or metal reserves and negligible mining; Britannica states that the islands have no known mineral resources. There is no domestic refining or metal beneficiation, and the audit assigns a grey or insufficient tier across all minerals and metals.

Endowment absent

Coffee, coconut and copra oil, and cut flowers

Each rests on genuine climate or heritage endowment — premium micro-lot coffee from the Monte Café area, historic coconut groves, and tropical foliage with small European Union sales — but volumes are tiny, cold chain is absent for flowers, and continental demand is marginal or moderate. All three are rated grey or insufficient.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What São Tomé and Príncipe actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for São Tomé and Príncipe. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

São Tomé and Príncipe's defining endowments are narrow but distinct. The first is a historic single-origin "fine or flavour" cocoa reputation, earned as the early-twentieth-century "Chocolate Islands" when the territory was the world's top cocoa exporter between 1905 and 1913, with a peak of some 36,500 tonnes exported in 1913. Roughly 30 per cent of present output is classified fine or flavour, resting on rare, low-hybridisation forastero and amelonado genetics, especially on Príncipe, where Claudio Corallo rebuilt near-original stock. The second is a very large maritime domain: an maritime economic zone of about 160,000 square kilometres, roughly 160 times the land area, with substantial tuna resources in the Gulf of Guinea. The third is ample but largely uninstalled renewable energy potential — mini-hydro estimated at 30 to 40 MW, which the African Development Bank judges could potentially substitute all thermal plant if fully exploited, alongside average daily solar insolation of about 5.2 kWh per square metre.

Unusually for a micro-economy, processing capacity in the strongest chain already exists onshore rather than only on paper. Claudio Corallo runs a full tree-to-bar operation; Diogo Vaz, of the Kennyson Group, processes locally and has won 13 AVPA origin-chocolate awards; and the CECAB co-operative, which sells organic beans to the French manufacturer Kaoka, has built a chocolate factory at Guadalupe with African Development Bank funding of approximately 450,000 euros. In palm oil, Agripalma, a Socfin subsidiary, operates the only large-scale plantation — 2,100 hectares planted of a 2,400 hectare concession — with a mill commissioned in 2019 at a nameplate capacity of 10,000 tonnes per year, some 6,000 tonnes of certified organic palm oil exported, and EU and NOP organic plus partial RSPO certification. Skill clusters exist in cocoa agronomy and fermentation, Corallo having trained agronomists at the national polytechnic, and in artisanal fishing.

On comparative advantage the record is thin by design rather than by weakness. São Tomé and Príncipe is not assigned an Economic Complexity Index rank or value by either the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity or the Observatory of Economic Complexity, because those rankings are restricted to countries above population and trade thresholds — a population above one million and average trade above one billion United States dollars — which the country does not meet. The audit records this as a structural data gap, not a measurable low score. What trade data do establish is strong revealed comparative advantage in cocoa beans, crude palm oil, coconut and copra oil, pepper and, marginally, chocolate; the legacy OEC profile noted the country exports 51 products with revealed comparative advantage, dominated by cocoa. The realistic upgrading paths run along the cocoa chain, from beans to paste, butter and chocolate, and along the palm and oilseed chain, from fruit to crude oil to refined and specialty oils, plus prepared and preserved fish.

The endowment in depth

São Tomé and Príncipe carries no minerals-and-metals dimension: it has no known commercial mineral or metal reserves, with Britannica (2024) stating the islands "have no known mineral resources," and there is no domestic refining or beneficiation. Energy is a story of potential rather than installed capacity. Generation is only ~35.8 MW installed (the CIA World Factbook gives ~28 MW, 2020 est.), roughly 92–95% diesel/thermal, with only ~58% of theoretical capacity available owing to ageing assets, generation costs around USD 0.30/kWh, and the utility EMAE described by its own managing director as "technically insolvent"; electrification stands at ~75–78% (2021). Renewable potential is real but largely uninstalled: the sole operating hydro plant, Contador (2.0 MW), is more than fifty years old, mini-hydro potential is estimated at 30–40 MW — enough, per the AfDB, to "potentially substitute all thermal power plants" — and average daily solar insolation is ~5.2 kWh/m². On hydrocarbons, STP holds rights in the Nigeria–STP Joint Development Zone (~35,000 km², 60% Nigeria / 40% STP under the 2001 Abuja Treaty) and its own EEZ, but no commercial discovery has ever been made: JDZ exploration wells (2006–2013) found only sub-commercial gas and oil (Lemba, Bomu, Kina, Obo), Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec and Total all withdrew, TotalEnergies re-entered Blocks 7/8/11 in 2019 (USD 5m signature bonus) and exited in 2024, Shell's 2022 EEZ Block 6 well was inconclusive, and the World Bank concluded "oil production should not be included in any baseline scenario for STP."

Agriculture and fisheries carry the endowment. Cocoa is the dominant crop at ~3,000–4,000 t/year (CECAB produced ~1,650 t in 2021; combined co-op output is "just over 3,000 tonnes per year"), of which roughly 30% is classified "fine or flavour," against a historic peak of ~36,500 t exported in 1913; cocoa-bean exports were ~USD 8–13 million in 2022 and 54% of exports in 2021. Palm oil has overtaken cocoa as the leading export by value: Agripalma, a Socfin subsidiary, operates the only large-scale plantation — 2,100 ha planted of a 2,400 ha concession, a palm-oil mill commissioned in 2019 with nameplate capacity 10,000 t/year, ~6,000 t of certified organic palm oil exported, EU/NOP organic and partial RSPO certified — with crude-palm-oil exports ~USD 8.17 million in 2022, ~32–33% of exports. The fisheries endowment rests on a very large EEZ of ~160,000 km² (roughly 160× the land area), with catch capacity estimated at ~29,000 t/year; actual domestic catch rose from ~4,000 t (2005) to ~12,000 t (2017) and ~15,000 t (2021), almost entirely artisanal (~2,237 boats, ~90% described as fragile or unsafe), while industrial tuna is taken by foreign EU fleets under the EU–STP Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement (2025–2029 protocol: ~6,500 t/year of tuna and migratory species, €825,000/year EU contribution, €85/tonne catch fee). Fisheries provide over half of animal protein and ~30,000 jobs. Smaller crops — premium coffee (Monte Café), pepper (~USD 254k, 2023), copra/coconut oil (~USD 123k), bananas, cinnamon and vanilla — remain small-scale, and although fine timber stands exist, steep terrain and conservation priorities (Obô Natural Park) constrain extraction.

The existing industrial base is micro-scale: manufacturing value added is ~USD 4 million (the ~USD 29m figure is a flagged outlier), just ~0.62% of GDP in 2024 against a world average of ~12%; STP is not covered by the UNIDO CIP Index (154 economies) and has no published MVA-per-capita rank. Only cocoa/chocolate and palm oil represent genuine processing: the Agripalma mill (10,000 t/yr); bean-to-bar chocolate makers Claudio Corallo (São Tomé) and Diogo Vaz (Kennyson Group, 13 AVPA origin-chocolate awards); the cocoa co-ops CECAB (which sells to French manufacturer Kaoka and has built a new chocolate factory at Guadalupe for ~€450,000, AfDB-funded), Satocão and CECAQ-11; plus small breweries, soap, bricks and beverages. There is no SEZ or operational industrial park. On human capital, the labour force is ~67,889 (2017), primary education is universal, free and compulsory to age 15, but the country suffers heavy emigration — ~39,608 emigrants in 2020 (~18.1% of population), chiefly to Portugal (51.9%), Angola and Gabon — a "steady labor force loss" flagged by the IMF (2025 Article IV); the informal sector is ~51.7% of the labour force (2019), the tertiary base is thin (University of São Tomé and Príncipe), though skill clusters exist in cocoa agronomy and fermentation and in artisanal fishing, and the Portugal-concentrated diaspora offers a potential skills and capital bridge.

Infrastructure and logistics are the binding physical constraint. The existing ports at Ana Chaves (São Tomé city) and Neves lack a deep-water harbour, so large ships anchor offshore and are lightered by barge. The long-discussed Fernão Dias deep-water port (Lobata district, north São Tomé) — 16 m draft, a multipurpose terminal for ships up to 30,000 t, on a DBFO/PPP model — was tendered in November 2019 with the explicit aim to "transform São Tomé and Príncipe into a platform for providing services to Central and West African countries by serving as a transhipment site"; earlier iterations involved China Harbour Engineering (a ~USD 800m transhipment-hub concept, c.2015–16), CRBC and Macau Legend, but none has been built. Recent port-management concessions have collapsed — a 2022 Safebond (Ghana) deal was suspended in January 2023, and a 2023 concession to Africa Global Logistics (AGL) was paused in January 2024. STP has one international airport (São Tomé), and its archipelago geography raises trade costs and isolation, leaving transhipment and bunkering hub status aspirational rather than installed.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

São Tomé and Príncipe is not assigned an Economic Complexity Index (ECI) rank or value by either the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity or the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC): OEC country-comparison pages state plainly that STP "does not have data related to Economic Complexity Index," because the Atlas and OEC restrict rankings to countries above population and trade thresholds (population >1 million and average trade >USD 1 billion), which STP (~230,000 people, <USD 60m exports) does not meet. Consequently no Complexity Outlook Index (COI) or formal "feasible diversification opportunities" list is published for STP — a structural data gap, not a measurable low score.

What can be established from trade data (OEC legacy/WITS) is that STP exhibits strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in cocoa beans, crude palm oil, coconut/copra oil, pepper and, marginally, chocolate; the OEC legacy profile noted that STP "exports 51 products with revealed comparative advantage," dominated by cocoa. Because no Atlas product space is published, adjacency and feasible-diversification logic can only be qualitative, but the most realistic upgrading paths run along the cocoa chain (beans → paste/butter → chocolate, HS 1801→1803/1804→1806) and the palm/oilseed chain (fruit → crude oil → refined/specialty oils, HS 1511/1513), plus prepared and preserved fish (HS 0303→1604). For the scale of the upgrading prize, unprocessed cocoa beans still represent the majority of West African cocoa exports (72% in Côte d'Ivoire, 68% in Ghana, 90% in Nigeria — Manufacturing Africa), underscoring how thinly even the large producers are positioned in finished chocolate.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

São Tomé and Príncipe's single most defensible continental supply position is premium, origin-certified chocolate and cocoa products — the headline category being fine-flavour chocolate and cocoa preparations (HS 1806), built on premium single-origin cocoa (HS 1801) — resting not on volume but on a combination that is genuinely hard to replicate. The input advantage is a century-old "Chocolate Islands" reputation (the world's top cocoa exporter 1905–1913) and rare, low-hybridisation cacao genetics, especially on Príncipe, where Claudio Corallo rebuilt near-original forastero/amelonado stock; roughly 30% of output is classified "fine or flavour." Crucially, processing capacity already exists onshore: Corallo runs a full tree-to-bar operation, Diogo Vaz (Kennyson Group) processes locally and has won 13 AVPA origin-chocolate awards (2025), and CECAB — which sells organic beans to France's Kaoka — has built a chocolate factory at Guadalupe with AfDB funding. The mechanism is a quality, terroir and certification moat (organic, fair-trade, traceable, EUDR-ready), durable precisely because it does not compete on the cost or scale terms where Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria dominate. Continental demand is large and structurally under-served: Africa's chocolate market is forecast to reach ~12M tonnes / USD 66.1bn by 2035, up from a 2024 base of 9.6M t / USD 48.2bn (IndexBox, 2024), yet only ~20% of finished chocolate consumed globally is processed in Africa (Manufacturing Africa), so a premium single-origin "Made in São Tomé" chocolate is a credible niche supply to African urban premium markets as incomes rise under AfCFTA.

The honest limits are scale and deliverability. Total cocoa output is only ~3,000–4,000 t/year, power is unreliable and costly (~USD 0.30/kWh), there is no deep-water port, and chocolate's heat-sensitive cold chain is weak — so this is a high-margin niche, not a mass continental supply line. A collapse in fine/flavour price premia, loss of organic or fair-trade certification, or a pest or climate shock (the 1919 thrips collapse is the cautionary precedent) would erode the position. The two runners-up carry the same caveat: Agripalma's 10,000 t/yr certified organic palm-oil mill faces an enormous regional deficit — Nigeria alone runs a shortfall of more than 1M t/yr and spends ~USD 500–600m a year on imports (Nigerian Minister of Agriculture, 2026) — but STP's output currently flows to Europe and China and expansion is socially and environmentally contested; and the tuna and prepared/preserved fish resource in the large EEZ remains aspirational, its value captured by foreign fleets with no domestic cannery, until onshore processing exists.

Current reality

São Tomé and Príncipe is Africa's second-smallest economy, with nominal GDP of about 1.16 billion United States dollars and GDP per capita of roughly 4,739 dollars in 2026 on IMF World Economic Outlook figures, and a population of about 225,000 to 240,000. It has negligible mining and no known commercial mineral or metal reserves, no commercial oil or gas despite the long-disputed Gulf of Guinea Joint Development Zone with Nigeria, and a near-non-existent manufacturing base: manufacturing value added is about 4 million dollars, some 0.62 per cent of GDP in 2024, against a world average near 12 per cent. The country is not covered by the UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index and has no published manufacturing-value-added-per-capita rank. The audit's headline supply position is unambiguous: the country is not a continental supplier at scale in any category today, and its only defensible, differentiated continental position is in premium cocoa and finished chocolate, where origin reputation and existing bean-to-bar processing give a durable niche advantage rather than volume.

The constraints are physical and immediate. Installed power is about 35.8 MW, some 92 to 95 per cent diesel or thermal, with only around 58 per cent of theoretical capacity available because of ageing assets, at a generation cost of about 0.30 dollars per kWh; the utility EMAE has been described by its own managing director as technically insolvent. There is no deep-water port: the ports at Ana Chaves and Neves require large ships to anchor offshore and be lightered by barge, and recent management concessions collapsed, with a 2022 Safebond arrangement suspended in January 2023 and a 2023 concession to Africa Global Logistics paused in January 2024. Total merchandise exports were about 16.5 million dollars in 2023 excluding a one-off crude-petroleum re-export, and destinations are overwhelmingly European; the share going to other African countries is marginal, Cameroon accounting for about 3.55 per cent of exports in 2022. The audit states plainly that the country currently supplies essentially nothing to African markets at scale.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 11 candidate lines · will change

São Tomé and Príncipe’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from São Tomé and Príncipe’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what São Tomé and Príncipe will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How São Tomé and Príncipe’s 11 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 1Emerging 3Aspirational 3Grey 4

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Crude petroleum

JDZ/EEZ acreage · Maturity: None (no commercial discovery) · Competitiveness: Very large

GREY

USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: World Bank CEM BN4; The Republic · 2019-2025

Crude/organic palm oil

Agripalma mill 10,000 t/yr, organic certified · Maturity: Intermediate; refining next · Competitiveness: Very large (Nigeria deficit >1M t, ~USD 500-600m imports)

EMERGING

USD 6.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151110Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151190Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 1.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.32 bnKenya USD 838.9 mEthiopia USD 491.4 mSouth Africa USD 462 mDjibouti USD 451.6 mUganda USD 311.4 mMozambique USD 250.1 mSomalia USD 201.9 m

Source: Socfin; WITS; Nigerian Min. Agriculture · 2019-2026

Frozen/chilled fish

EEZ resource; artisanal catch · Maturity: Minimal (~USD 0.28m, 2022) · Competitiveness: Significant regional protein demand

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.03 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .

030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an

030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo

030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e

030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae

030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh

030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...

030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)

030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304

030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings

030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t

030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"

030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)

030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"

030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)

030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9

030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...

030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)

030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks

030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)

030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)

030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)

030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...

030380Frozen fish livers and roes

030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030390Frozen fish livers and roes

030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt

030392Fish; frozen, shark fins

030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Cote dIvoire USD 835.8 mNigeria USD 565.2 mEgypt USD 355 mCameroon USD 301 mGhana USD 293.3 mMauritius USD 225.3 mZambia USD 163.8 mSouth Africa USD 139.4 m

Source: OEC; World Bank CEM BN15 · 2019-2022

Coffee

Premium micro-lot heritage (Monte Café) · Maturity: Raw, tiny volume · Competitiveness: Marginal continental

GREY

USD 1.13 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090111Coffee; not roasted or decaffeinated

090112Coffee; decaffeinated, not roasted

090121Coffee; roasted, not decaffeinated

090122Coffee; roasted, decaffeinated

090190Coffee; husks and skins, coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 322.4 mEgypt USD 217.4 mSudan USD 151.5 mMorocco USD 148 mSouth Africa USD 99.8 mLibya USD 77.7 mTunisia USD 34.5 mNamibia USD 9.7 m

Source: trade.gov; OEC · 2022-2023

Prepared/preserved tuna

Large EEZ tuna resource · Maturity: Absent (no cannery) · Competitiveness: Large (canned-fish importer)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince

160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc

160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604

160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved

160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs

160431Fish preparations; caviar

160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: EU SFPA; trade.gov · 2023-2025

Fine-flavour chocolate & cocoa preparations

Origin reputation + existing bean-to-bar makers (Corallo, Diogo Vaz, CECAB) · Maturity: Finished, micro-volume; scale next · Competitiveness: Large/growing (~12M t, USD 66.1bn by 2035 from 9.6M t/USD 48.2bn 2024 base); only ~20% chocolate processed in Africa

EMERGING

USD 706.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180610Cocoa; powder, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter

180620Chocolate & other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars weighing more than 2kg or in liquid, past

180631Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, filled, weighing 2kg or less

180632Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less

180690Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; n.e.c. in chapter 18

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Libya USD 147.8 mSouth Africa USD 126.1 mMorocco USD 101.3 mEgypt USD 54.2 mNigeria USD 37.5 mMauritius USD 29.9 mNamibia USD 15.8 mAngola USD 14.6 m

Source: OEC/WITS; Macao Magazine; IndexBox · 2022-2024

Pepper

Premium organic niche, real exports · Maturity: Finished dried spice · Competitiveness: Marginal continental

EMERGING

USD 191 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090411Spices; pepper (of the genus piper), neither crushed nor ground

090412Spices; pepper (of the genus piper), crushed or ground

090420Fruits of the genus Capsicum or of the genus Pimenta, dried or crushed or ground

090421Spices; fruits of the genus Capsicum or Pimenta, dried, neither crushed nor ground

090422Spices; fruits of the genus Capsicum or Pimenta, crushed or ground

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 47.7 mSouth Africa USD 37.7 mMorocco USD 27.5 mAlgeria USD 26.4 mLibya USD 17.5 mGhana USD 5.7 mNigeria USD 5.4 mTunisia USD 4.6 m

Source: Trendeconomy; trade.gov · 2023

Coconut / copra oil

Historic coconut groves · Maturity: Intermediate, small · Competitiveness: Moderate (edible-oil deficit)

GREY

USD 166.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151311Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151319Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modi

151321Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151329Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemic

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 41.2 mSouth Africa USD 36.7 mSudan USD 16 mKenya USD 15.9 mTunisia USD 13.1 mDjibouti USD 8.9 mMorocco USD 7.1 mAlgeria USD 6.4 m

Source: WITS · 2022

Cocoa butter / paste / powder

Bean feedstock; nascent grinding (CECAB) · Maturity: Largely absent; build grinding · Competitiveness: Large (semi-finished cocoa imports rising)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 61.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180310Cocoa; paste, not defatted

180320Cocoa; paste, wholly or partly defatted

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 21 mEgypt USD 18.9 mAlgeria USD 13.7 mMorocco USD 6.2 mTunisia USD 0.7 mSudan USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 mLibya USD 0.1 m

Source: ISS African Futures; EU VCA4D · 2024-2025

Cocoa beans (fine/flavour, organic)

Established RCA, real export volume, ~30% fine/flavour · Maturity: Raw; paste/butter next · Competitiveness: Modest intra-African (grinding historically concentrated in Europe)

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: WITS; OEC; Manufacturing Africa · 2022-2023

Cut flowers / tropical foliage

Climate; small EU sales · Maturity: Raw; cold-chain absent · Competitiveness: Marginal

GREY

USD 30.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

060310Fresh cut flowers and flower buds, for bouquets or for ornamental purposes

060311Flowers, cut; roses, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh

060312Flowers, cut; carnations, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh

060313Flowers, cut; orchids, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh

060314Flowers, cut; chrysanthemums, flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh

060315Flowers, cut; lilies (Lilium spp.), flowers and flower buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fres

060319Flowers, cut; flowers and buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, fresh, other than roses, carnatio

060390Flowers, cut; flowers and flower buds of a kind suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes, dried, dyed, bleached, imp

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

São Tomé and Príncipe imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Libya USD 9.8 mEgypt USD 3.8 mSouth Africa USD 3.6 mMauritius USD 2 mMorocco USD 1.8 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mNamibia USD 1.4 mBotswana USD 1 m

Source: trade.gov · 2020-2023

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for São Tomé and Príncipe is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What São Tomé and Príncipe buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: São Tomé and Príncipe is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 0.18 bn

São Tomé and Príncipe’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	São Tomé and Príncipe imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Crude/organic palm oil	EMERGING	USD 1.1 m	USD 6.9 bn
Fine-flavour chocolate & cocoa preparations	EMERGING	USD 0.3 m	USD 706.2 m
Prepared/preserved tuna	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.2 m	USD 850.3 m
Coffee	GREY	USD 0.1 m	USD 1.13 bn
Crude petroleum	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 11.08 bn
Frozen/chilled fish	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 4.03 bn
Pepper	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 191 m
Coconut / copra oil	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 166.8 m
Cocoa butter / paste / powder	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 61.4 m
Cocoa beans (fine/flavour, organic)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 45.3 m
Cut flowers / tropical foliage	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 30.5 m

Left-hand column: what São Tomé and Príncipe itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What São Tomé and Príncipe’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 11 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times São Tomé and Príncipe’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to São Tomé and Príncipe. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

São Tomé and Príncipe’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind São Tomé and Príncipe’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01South AfricaUSD 5.84 bn

02EgyptUSD 3.88 bn

03Cote dIvoireUSD 3.72 bn

04SenegalUSD 952.6 m

05KenyaUSD 854.9 m

06NigeriaUSD 608.1 m

07TunisiaUSD 578.6 m

08GhanaUSD 501.4 m

09EthiopiaUSD 491.4 m

10LibyaUSD 467.3 m

11DjiboutiUSD 460.7 m

12AlgeriaUSD 452.7 m

13MoroccoUSD 336.1 m

14UgandaUSD 311.6 m

15CameroonUSD 301 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to São Tomé and Príncipe. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions São Tomé and Príncipe would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for São Tomé and Príncipe to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Reliable, affordable power

Commission the 30–40 MW mini-hydro and solar pipeline and stabilise EMAE so processing runs at under USD 0.15/kWh equivalent; without this, no value-added manufacturing scales.

Cold-chain and port logistics

A functioning deep-water or transhipment facility (Fernão Dias), or reliable feeder-shipping plus chilled storage at the airport and port, for chocolate, fish and flowers.

Cocoa volume and quality investment

Replanting and yield recovery to lift output meaningfully above ~4,000 t while protecting the fine/flavour premium and EUDR/organic traceability.

Onshore value capture in fisheries

At least one tuna processing or canning line to convert EEZ rents, currently captured by foreign fleets, into HS 1604 exports.

De-risked, diversified investment

Broaden beyond single buyers and investors (CECAB–Kaoka, Agripalma–Socfin) and deploy Afreximbank/FEDA and AfCFTA instruments toward processing.

AfCFTA operationalisation

A national AfCFTA implementation strategy, rules-of-origin compliance, and PAPSS participation to access continental premium markets.

The binding constraints

Power — the binding constraint About 35.8 MW is installed, only ~58% available, ~92–95% diesel, at ~USD 0.30/kWh, and the utility EMAE is technically insolvent — the binding constraint on any processing or manufacturing.

Logistics and ports There is no deep-water port; large ships are lightered by barge, freight costs are high, and archipelago isolation compounds them, while recent port concessions have failed or been suspended (Safebond 2023; AGL 2024).

Scale and feedstock Micro-volumes (cocoa ~3,000–4,000 t; palm-oil mill 10,000 t) sit far below continental supply thresholds, with single-buyer dependency (CECAB→Kaoka) and single-investor dependency (Agripalma/Socfin).

Capital, FX and governance STP is assessed in debt distress (IMF 2025) though debt is judged sustainable, relies on ODA, has thin domestic credit and small FDI, and remains under EITI suspension (October 2022, extended April 2024) for stalled implementation amid weak institutions and small administrative capacity.

Skills and labour A small labour force (~68k), heavy emigration (~18% of the population, a documented steady labour-force loss) and a thin tertiary and TVET base limit delivery capacity.

Climate vulnerability STP is ranked 37th most vulnerable by ND-GAIN; coastal erosion threatens roads and ports, and cocoa and palm are exposed to rainfall shocks.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in São Tomé and Príncipe’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Power is the binding constraint on any processing. Installed capacity is about 35.8 MW with only some 58 per cent available, 92 to 95 per cent diesel, at roughly 0.30 dollars per kWh, and the utility EMAE is technically insolvent. The audit requires the 30 to 40 MW mini-hydro and solar pipeline to be commissioned and EMAE stabilised so processing runs below the equivalent of 0.15 dollars per kWh; without this, no value-added manufacturing scales.

There is no deep-water port and no cold chain. Large ships anchor offshore and are lightered by barge, freight costs are high and archipelago isolation compounds them, while port concessions to Safebond and Africa Global Logistics were suspended in 2023 and 2024. A functioning deep-water or transhipment facility, or reliable feeder shipping plus chilled storage, is a precondition for chocolate, fish and flowers.

Feedstock volumes sit far below continental supply thresholds. Cocoa output is only about 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes a year and the palm-oil mill has a nameplate capacity of 10,000 tonnes. The audit's own benchmark for upgrading chocolate to strong contender is cocoa output sustainably above 8,000 tonnes a year with rising HS 1806 export value.

Single-buyer and single-investor dependency runs through both chains. CECAB sells to the French manufacturer Kaoka, and Agripalma is the flagship and effectively sole processing investor as a Socfin subsidiary. The audit calls for broadening beyond these relationships and deploying Afreximbank and FEDA instruments toward processing.

The labour base is small and shrinking through emigration. The labour force is about 67,889, with roughly 39,608 emigrants recorded in 2020, some 18.1 per cent of the population, principally to Portugal, Angola and Gabon. The IMF has flagged a steady labour force loss, the informal sector accounts for about 51.7 per cent of the labour force, and the tertiary and technical training base is thin.

Capital, governance and transparency are all constrained. The country is assessed in debt distress by the IMF in 2025 though debt is judged sustainable, with reliance on official development assistance, thin domestic credit and small foreign direct investment. It has been suspended from the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative since October 2022, extended in April 2024, for stalled implementation.

Climate and crop shocks threaten the niche itself. The country ranks 37th most vulnerable on the ND-GAIN index, coastal erosion threatens roads and ports, and cocoa and palm are exposed to rainfall shocks. A collapse in fine or flavour price premia, loss of organic or fair-trade certification, or a pest or climate shock would erode the position, with the 1919 thrips collapse cited as the cautionary precedent.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

São Tomé and Príncipe's Draft 1 bundle rests on one defensible position and two contingent ones. The defensible position is the cocoa chain: established revealed comparative advantage in fine or flavour beans under HS 1801, and finished chocolate under HS 1806 where processing already exists onshore and the moat is quality, terroir and certification rather than cost or scale. The contingent positions are certified organic palm oil, where Agripalma's 10,000 tonne mill faces a regional deficit but output currently flows to Europe and China and expansion is socially and environmentally contested, and the maritime economic zone tuna resource, which remains rent-captured by foreign fleets. What must be proven is deliverability rather than endowment: reliable and affordable power from the 30 to 40 MW mini-hydro and solar pipeline with EMAE stabilised; functioning port and cold-chain logistics; cocoa replanting and yield recovery that lifts output meaningfully above 4,000 tonnes while protecting the fine or flavour premium and EUDR and organic traceability; at least one onshore tuna processing line to convert maritime economic zone rents into HS 1604 exports; diversification beyond single buyers and investors; and AfCFTA operationalisation through a national implementation strategy, rules-of-origin compliance and PAPSS participation. Tier assignments throughout are deliberately conservative given the micro-economy.

What is not fixed is the bundle. São Tomé and Príncipe is shown 11 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask São Tomé and Príncipe to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where São Tomé and Príncipe stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for São Tomé and Príncipe?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect São Tomé and Príncipe’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for São Tomé and Príncipe?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.