Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
SomaliaBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Somalia — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
18
Draft 1 candidate lines for Somalia
The Minister’s brief · for Bihi Iman Egeh · Somalia
Minister Egeh, Somalia holds what the continent cannot import from anywhere nearer: the world's largest camel herd, 7.4 million strong, inside a pastoralist complex of some 57 million head, and a standing as the world's second-ranked exporter of live sheep and goats. Berbera moves more than 4.1 million animals to market each year, and Bosaso stands as a second dedicated livestock port. Africa is a structural net meat importer, buying roughly USD 3.9 billion a year it could source from you; today barely 1.9 per cent of your exports stay on the continent. The Right of Supply converts that gap into a claim: a twenty-five-year first right to supply Africa's tables, disciplined by Match-or-Release so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract, only demand made certain enough to build the abattoirs and cold chain around. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional; the correction is yours, and it is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Somalia
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Bihi Iman Egeh, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Somalia · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Egeh,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Somalia — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Somalia is in this room

Somalia's strongest endowment is its pastoralist livestock complex: approximately 57 million head (FAO, 2024), including the world's largest camel herd at 7.4 million, the world's largest camel-milk output at 987,842 tonnes in 2022, revealed comparative advantage of roughly 1,450 for live sheep and goats, and an established export spine through Berbera and Bosaso that already moves more than 4.1 million head a year. The honest constraint is equally clear. Somalia exports live animals, not meat; halal processing is nascent; power tariffs of USD 0.36 to 0.90 per kWh and the absence of a national grid gate the cold chain; and roughly 1.9 per cent of exports went to Africa in 2024. The allocation offered here is therefore aspirational in character: a demand certainty against which the disease control, certification, abattoir and cold-chain capability can be built, not a claim on capacity that exists today.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Somalia, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Somalia

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
18draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Somalia’s draft bundle. 18 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Live sheep & goats. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 2 strong contender · 5 emerging · 6 aspirational · 4 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Somalia is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 18 candidate lines proposed for Somalia below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Somalia. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Somalia will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Somalia will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
18 lines
Somalia’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Somalia at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Somalia’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Somalia’s own capability audit.

Uranium reserve claims

The audit records historic UN and IAEA-era estimates of about 5,000 tonnes reasonably assured resource dating from 1984, and states plainly that the recurring claim of 25 per cent of world reserves, or 800,000 tonnes, is unverified and should be treated as folklore.

Unverified claim

Crude petroleum

The audit states there are no proven reserves and no production. The offshore potential of 30 billion barrels is a recurring government and industry exploration figure and is speculative rather than booked reserves; there is no refining capacity, and first exploratory drilling reportedly commenced only around April 2026.

Unproven resource

Essential oils and resin extracts

Somalia holds a near-monopoly on the raw resin input, with revealed comparative advantage of roughly 1,780 for natural resins, yet there is no domestic distillation at scale and value capture sits offshore in Grasse and elsewhere. The audit tiers the raw resin as a strong contender and the processed oil as aspirational.

Capability inversion

Chilled and frozen halal red meat as a present capability

The audit is explicit that Somalia today exports live animals, not meat, and that halal meat processing is essentially nascent. Moving to HS 02 requires cold chain, SPS and halal certification, reliable power and disease control that barely exist; the category is tiered emerging, not strong.

Raw base, industrial screen

Gypsum and anhydrite tonnage

The Berbera gypsum-anhydrite deposit is described as one of the world's largest, with industry estimates exceeding 13 million tonnes of greater than 90 per cent purity, but the audit flags these figures as not Tier-1 verified and the deposit as raw and unexploited.

Unverified claim

Sepiolite and iron and steel scrap

Both are graded grey or insufficient. The El Bur sepiolite deposits are among the world's largest identified but remain unexploited, and iron and steel scrap is salvage material accounting for about 1.5 per cent of 2024 exports.

Insufficient evidence
08 · Endowment
What Somalia actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Somalia. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Somalia's defining endowment is pastoralist livestock. The total herd is estimated at approximately 57 million head (FAO, 2024), comprising roughly 30.5 million goats, 13 million sheep, 6.6 to 7.4 million camels and 5.5 million cattle. Per FAOSTAT, the camel population reached its peak of 7.4 million in 2020 to 2021, up from 5.8 million in 1980, ranking first globally ahead of Sudan and Kenya. Somalia is the world's largest camel-milk producer, at 987,842 tonnes in 2022, ahead of Pakistan at 812,083 tonnes and Kenya at 616,650 tonnes. Live-animal exports are the economic backbone: the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range records 2024 volume exceeding 6.4 million head, of which 5.9 million sheep and goats, 291,692 cattle and 212,616 camels, with livestock representing roughly 80 per cent of export earnings in normal years. Processing, however, is minimal. Exports are live animals rather than chilled or processed meat; a small number of modern slaughterhouses have been built with FAO support, and halal meat processing is essentially nascent.

The second endowment is the natural-gum resource base. Frankincense, in the form of Boswellia frereana known as Maydi and B. carterii known as Beyo, together with myrrh from Commiphora, places Somalia among the world's top three suppliers, and B. frereana is found almost only on the coastal northern seaboard. Exports are raw resin; distillation into essential oils takes place abroad, in Grasse, France, and elsewhere in Europe and North America. Natural gums, resins and balsams accounted for about 1.3 per cent of 2024 exports. The third endowment is maritime and logistical. Somalia holds the longest mainland coastline in Africa at roughly 3,333 km, with an maritime economic zone of some 830,000 to 1,165,000 square kilometres and a sustainable pelagic potential of about 200,000 tonnes a year (FAO Fishery Country Profile, 2005). At Berbera, where DP World holds a 51 per cent stake, container capacity has tripled from 150,000 to 500,000 TEU; per the BII and DP World independent evaluation of 2025, average vessel turnaround times fell from 64 hours in 2018 to just 25 hours by 2024, and Berbera's regional container-trade share rose from 9 per cent in 2017 to 14 per cent in 2024. Per DP World, more than 4.1 million head of livestock are moved annually through Berbera to global markets.

On economic complexity the audit records an absence rather than a value. Somalia has no Economic Complexity Index value or rank; the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas excludes it on data-quality grounds from its 145-country study, and the OEC states that Somalia does not have data regarding the Economic Complexity Index. That absence is itself the finding: the productive-knowledge base is too narrow and the trade data too thin to compute complexity. Where revealed comparative advantage is measurable it is extreme, though concentrated entirely in raw primary commodities: insect and natural resins at roughly 1,780, live sheep and goats at roughly 1,450, other live animals including camels at roughly 995, oil seeds and sesame at roughly 225, and fish oil at roughly 145. The adjacencies that product-space logic flags are accordingly short, one-step moves from a position of genuine input advantage: live animals to chilled and processed halal meat, raw resin to essential oils and extracts, raw hides to finished leather, and sesame seed to sesame oil.

The endowment in depth

Somalia's mineral endowment is geologically attested but almost entirely unexploited and unquantified to modern standards. The USGS nonfuel evaluation (Open-File Report 82-788, 1982) identifies favourable deposit types — banded iron formation, tin-bearing quartz veins, syenite-associated uranium, gypsum-anhydrite, sepiolite, bauxite and gemstones. The Berbera gypsum-anhydrite deposit is described as one of the world's largest, with industry estimates (GMT Minerals, not Tier-1 verified) exceeding 13 million tonnes of over 90% pure gypsum, and the sepiolite (meerschaum) deposits near El Bur rank among the world's largest identified (USGS Minerals Yearbook, 2015). Uranium is limited to a historic ~5,000-tonne reasonably-assured estimate (1984); the recurring "25% of world reserves / 800,000 tonnes" claim is unverified folklore. Domestic beneficiation is effectively zero — no smelter, refinery or commercial-scale mine — with production confined to artisanal salt, gemstones, aggregate and gypsum; a gold processing plant near Erigavo (Somaliland) was reportedly inaugurated in August 2025 but is not Tier-1 verified.

On energy, Somalia has no proven hydrocarbon reserves and no production; the offshore "potential" of 30 billion barrels is a speculative exploration figure, not booked reserves, though licensing is real and recent — Liberty Petroleum/Petro Quest Africa signed PSAs for offshore Blocks 131, 190 and 206 (March 2024), Coastline Exploration holds seven blocks (2022), Turkey's TPAO ran seismic via the Oruç Reis over ~4,464 km² (October 2024–June 2025), and a first exploratory well (Curad-1) reportedly commenced around April 2026. Power is the binding gate: installed capacity is only ~400 MW (~300 MW diesel, ~100 MW solar/wind; WEF 2025), there is no national grid, and supply is fragmented across private providers (BECO, NECSOM, Blue Sky) at tariffs of USD 0.36–0.90/kWh — against ~USD 0.06/kWh industrial in Ethiopia and ~USD 0.15/kWh in Kenya. This sits atop one of the highest renewable-resource endowments on earth: onshore wind potential of 30,000–45,000 MW (with wind "suitable for power production in 85% of the country", Solar Energy journal, 1991) and solar irradiance of 5–7 kWh/m²/day — an unconverted asset that today does nothing to relieve the cost of energy-intensive processing.

Agriculture is where the endowment becomes world-class, and livestock is the defining asset. The national herd is ~57 million head (FAO, 2024) — roughly 30.5M goats, 13M sheep, 6.6–7.4M camels and 5.5M cattle — with the camel population ranked first globally at a 7.4-million peak (2020–2021) and Somalia the world's largest camel-milk producer at 987,842 tonnes (2022). Live-animal exports are the economic backbone: earnings rose 13% from US$860.8 million (2023) to US$969.9 million (2024) on volume exceeding 6.4 million head (5.9M sheep/goats, 291,692 cattle, 212,616 camels), some ~80% of export earnings, sold overwhelmingly into the Gulf and peaking at Hajj — but as live animals, not chilled or processed meat. The fisheries base is structurally large yet under-exploited: the ~3,333 km coastline (Africa's longest mainland) and an EEZ of 830,000–1,165,000 km² support a sustainable pelagic potential of ~200,000 t/yr (eastern-coast estimates 340,000–420,000 t/yr), yet the sector is only 2–3% of GDP with 30–40% post-harvest losses and no canning at scale. Somalia is also a top-three world supplier of frankincense (Boswellia frereana "Maydi", B. carterii "Beyo") and myrrh, near-monopolistic on B. frereana, though gums and resins are only ~1.3% of 2024 exports (~US$25.8M); sesame (~33,000–46,000 t) and a collapsed banana industry (peaking near US$96M and ~120,000 workers in 1987–90 before its 1991 collapse) complete the crop picture.

The manufacturing base is among the thinnest on the continent: the World Bank has recorded no manufacturing value-added data since 1990 (last figure 3.94% of GDP / US$40.6M), Somalia is excluded from the UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index (2020, 152 countries), and formal establishments are only ~28% of businesses. What exists is shallow — a Coca-Cola bottling plant (Mogadishu, 2004), cement terminals (Raysut/Berbera), and the Bosaso Tannery producing wet-blue/pickled hides at ~5,000 skins plus 300 camel hides per day for Middle Eastern and European buyers. Human capital is young and abundant (80% under 35; youth unemployment ~27%) but largely informal (83% of employment), and the defining external resource is the diaspora: remittances of ~US$1.3–2.0 billion a year (15–25% of GDP) exceed FDI and aid combined and finance most SME and investment capital. Infrastructure advantage concentrates on the coast — Berbera (DP World, 51% stake) has tripled container capacity (150,000→500,000 TEU, phase 2 to 2M) on a 1,050 m Triple-E-capable quay, cut vessel turnaround from 64 hours (2018) to 25 hours (2024), lifted its regional container share from 9% (2017) to 14% (2024), and moves ~4.1 million head of livestock a year; it anchors the 250 km Berbera Corridor to landlocked Ethiopia and sits beside Bab-el-Mandeb (~12% of global seaborne trade), while a new Jebel Ali–Berbera route runs every nine days. Beyond the Berbera and Bosaso nodes, however, road networks are weak and there is no rail.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Somalia has no Economic Complexity Index value or rank, and the absence is itself the finding. The Harvard Growth Lab's Atlas of Economic Complexity excludes it on data-quality grounds (145 countries studied, 2024 data), the OEC states verbatim that Somalia "does not have data regarding Economic Complexity Index" (2023), and the country sits around 161st in total exports (US$1.03B, 2023). This is diagnostic rather than a mere gap: the productive-knowledge base is too narrow and the trade data too thin to compute complexity, placing Somalia at the extreme periphery of the product space.

Where revealed comparative advantage exists it is extreme but concentrated entirely in raw primary commodities — insect/natural resins at RCA ≈1,780, live sheep and goats ≈1,450, other live animals including camels ≈995, oil seeds/sesame ≈225, and fish oil ≈145 (OEC), all vastly above unity. The diversification adjacencies the product-space logic flags are all short, one-step beneficiation moves from positions of genuine input advantage: live animals to chilled/processed halal meat and prepared meats, raw resin to essential oils and extracts, raw hides to finished leather, and sesame seed to sesame oil.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Somalia's single most defensible continental supply position is live animals and the red-meat value chain (HS 01 → HS 02). The foundations are one of the world's largest livestock complexes (~57 million head; FAO, 2024), including the largest camel herd on earth (7.4M; FAOSTAT, 2020–2021), and revealed comparative advantage at extreme levels — RCA ≈1,450 for live sheep/goats and ≈995 for other live animals (OEC). Somalia is the world's #2 sheep-and-goat exporter and earned US$969.9 million from livestock in 2024 (Central Bank of Somalia / Ministry of Livestock), some ~80% of export earnings. The deliverability spine already exists: per DP World (October 2025), more than 4.1 million head are moved annually through Berbera — a trade worth over US$1 billion — while Bosaso is a dedicated livestock port, both Gulf-facing but equally able to serve Red Sea and East African markets. The demand backdrop is unambiguous: Africa is a structural net meat importer (~US$3.9 billion in meat and poultry, 2024) and the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 projects rising demand, with Sub-Saharan Africa's beef-cattle herd alone growing ~15% — the advantage rests on agro-climatic endowment, deep pastoralist tradition, proximity to demand and anchor port investment, all durable inputs.

The honest limits are equally clear. Somalia today exports live animals, not meat: value capture sits offshore, and the trade is acutely exposed to importer bans — the Saudi Rift Valley Fever bans of 2000–2009 cut up to 95% of exports. Moving up to chilled and certified halal meat (HS 02) demands cold chain, SPS and halal certification, reliable power and disease control that barely exist, so the near-term reality is one of secure raw-livestock demand rather than processed-meat capacity. Single-buyer dependence on the Gulf (~80% of exports to Saudi Arabia and Oman), drought-driven herd volatility, and al-Shabaab disruption of inland trekking routes remain live threats to even that raw position.

Current reality

Somalia is a fragile, post-conflict pastoralist economy of roughly USD 12.1 billion GDP (World Bank, 2024) and approximately 18 million people, with per-capita income near USD 600, placing it among the five poorest countries on earth (World Bank IEG, 2024). It is a raw primary-commodity exporter with almost no domestic processing. The industrial base is among the thinnest on the continent: the World Bank reports no manufacturing value-added data since 1990, when the last figure recorded manufacturing at 3.94 per cent of GDP, and Somalia is not ranked in the UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance Index. Manufacturing is overwhelmingly informal, with formal establishments at about 28 per cent of businesses. What exists is beverage bottling, food processing, construction materials at the Raysut and Berbera cement terminals, and the Bosaso Tannery producing wet-blue and pickled hides. There are no assembly lines and no integrated manufacturing.

Energy is the binding gate. Installed capacity is around 400 MW, of which roughly 300 MW is diesel and 100 MW solar and wind, with no national grid and fragmented private electricity service providers. Tariffs run at USD 0.36 to 0.90 per kWh against roughly USD 0.06 industrial in Ethiopia and USD 0.15 in Kenya. Trade structure reinforces the picture: live animals were about 83.6 per cent of 2024 exports, destinations are overwhelmingly Gulf and Asian, with Saudi Arabia at about 49 per cent and Oman about 30 per cent, and intra-African export share stands at roughly 1.9 per cent of exports in 2024. That last figure is the central strategic gap. Somalia barely supplies the African continent today, and its allocation is therefore aspirational: a demand certainty against which capability is to be built, not a claim on present capacity.

Read under the South Sudan Principle

Somalia holds an aspirational allocation. Nothing on these pages is a near-term capacity claim. The bundle is the demand certainty against which capability is built, and it is deliberately held open while the state rebuilds.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 18 candidate lines · will change

Somalia’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Somalia’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Somalia will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Somalia’s 18 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 2Emerging 5Aspirational 6Grey 4
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Crude petroleum

Speculative 30-40bn bbl unproven; 31 blocks · Maturity: None - no production · Competitiveness: Very High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: Ecofin/S&P · 2024

Natural gas

NTP cites ~200 bcf unverified · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 10.27 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271111Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, natural gas
271112Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, propane
271113Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, butanes
271114Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene
271119Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711
271121Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas
271129Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, other than natural gas
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): State utilities · Energy Security · control: controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Somalia imported USD 7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 3.38 bnMorocco USD 2.36 bnTunisia USD 1.66 bnSouth Africa USD 779.1 mCote dIvoire USD 413.8 mKenya USD 240.9 mTanzania USD 205.1 mGhana USD 181.6 m

Source: NTP · 2025

Camel & other dairy

World's leading camel-milk producer · Maturity: Informal; net importer · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 3.74 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
040110Dairy produce; milk and cream, not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content
040120Dairy produce; milk and cream, not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content
040130Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 6%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar...
040140Dairy produce; milk and cream, not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content
040150Dairy produce; milk and cream, not concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content
040210Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or
040221Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules
040229Dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid for
040291Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, other than in powder
040299Dairy produce; milk and cream, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, other than in powder, granules or othe
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Somalia imported USD 204.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 1.33 bnEgypt USD 328.3 mNigeria USD 256.5 mLibya USD 231.5 mSomalia your own imports USD 204.7 mMorocco USD 129 mKenya USD 81.3 mCote dIvoire USD 77 m

Somalia is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: SDRB · 2024

Gold

Export figure is UAE-transit artefact · Maturity: None domestic · Competitiveness: High
GREY
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: OEC; SwissAid · 2023

Uranium/columbite-tantalite/iron

Occurrences only; no reserves · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: Variable
GREY
USD 2.86 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
261210Uranium ores and concentrates
261220Thorium ores and concentrates
261510Zirconium ores and concentrates
261590Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores and concentrates

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 823.6 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mGhana USD 2.3 mZambia USD 1.8 mSouth Africa USD 1.5 m

Source: USGS OFR 82-788 · 1982

Construction steel (rebar)

Banadir Steel plant opened Nov 2025 · Maturity: Single nascent plant · Competitiveness: Very High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.6 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
721310Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, containing indentations, ribs, grooves o
721320Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, of free-cutting steel
721391Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of circular
721399Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of circular
721410Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, forged, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after
721420Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or
721430Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, including those twisted after rolling, of
721491Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, n.e.c. in heading no. 7214, of rectangula
721499Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, n.e.c. in heading no. 7214, other than of
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 69.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 217.8 mDjibouti USD 194.9 mEthiopia USD 173.1 mCote dIvoire USD 139.6 mGhana USD 134.1 mEgypt USD 120.5 mMorocco USD 116.2 mTanzania USD 93.1 m

Source: Govt · 2025

Solar/wind electricity

30-45 GW wind; 5-7 kWh/m²/day solar · Maturity: ~100 MW installed · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271600Electrical energy
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: USAID/WEF · 2025

Live cattle & camels

~5.3M cattle, ~7.1M camels; Gulf trade · Maturity: Live only · Competitiveness: Medium-High
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 994.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
010210Pure-bred breeding bovines
010221Cattle; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010229Cattle; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010231Buffalo; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010239Buffalo; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010290Bovine animals; live, other than cattle and buffalo
010600Live animals (excluding horses, asses, mules, hinnies, bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats,...
010611Mammals; live, primates
010612Mammals; live, whales, dolphins and porpoises (mammals of the order Cetacea); manatees and dugongs (mammals of the order
010613Mammals; live, camels and other camelids (Camelidae)
010614Mammals; live, rabbits and hares
010619Mammals; live, other than primates, whales, dolphins, porpoises (mammals of the order Cetacea); manatees, dugongs (mamma
010620Reptiles; live (including snakes and turtles)
010631Birds; live, birds of prey
010632Birds; live, Psittaciformes
010633Birds; live, ostriches; emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae)
010639Birds; live, other than birds of prey, Psittaciformes, ostriches and emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae)
010641Insects; live, bees
010649Insects; live, other than bees
010690Animals; live, n.e.c. in chapter 01, other than mammals, reptiles, birds and insects
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Somalia imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 428.9 mMorocco USD 197.3 mSouth Africa USD 104.6 mAlgeria USD 104.5 mLibya USD 48.8 mMauritius USD 20 mTunisia USD 12.7 mCote dIvoire USD 12.5 m

Source: Min Livestock/CBS · 2024

Sesame seed & oil

>50,000 MT/yr; dehulled quality · Maturity: Raw seed; no pressing at scale · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 695.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120710Oil seeds; palm nuts and kernels, whether or not broken
120720Cotton seeds, whether or not broken
120721Oil seeds; cotton seeds, seed, whether or not broken
120729Oil seeds; cotton seeds, other than seed, whether or not broken
120730Oil seeds; castor oil seeds, whether or not broken
120740Oil seeds; sesamum seeds, whether or not broken
120750Oil seeds; mustard seeds, whether or not broken
120760Oil seeds; safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) seeds, whether or not broken
120770Oil seeds; melon seeds, whether or not broken
120791Oil seeds; poppy seeds, whether or not broken
120799Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; n.e.c. in heading no. 1207, whether or not broken
151511Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151519Vegetable oils; linseed oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151521Vegetable oils; maize (corn) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151529Vegetable oils; maize (corn) oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151530Vegetable oils; castor oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151540Tung oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151550Vegetable oils; sesame oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151560Vegetable oils; microbial fats and oils and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
151590Fixed vegetable fats and oils and their fractions n.e.c. in heading 1515; other than linseed, maize (corn), castor, sesame, microbial oils, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Somalia imported USD 0.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 164.8 mLibya USD 98.5 mTunisia USD 71 mGhana USD 54.3 mMorocco USD 45.8 mAlgeria USD 31.2 mDjibouti USD 29.8 mKenya USD 27.2 m

Source: FAO; Trade.gov · 2025

Gypsum / industrial minerals

Documented deposits, unquantified · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: Medium
GREY
USD 386.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252010Gypsum; anhydrite
252020Plasters; (consisting of calcined gypsum or calcium sulphate), whether or not coloured, with or without small quantities
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 176.6 mGhana USD 32.7 mCote dIvoire USD 18.3 mUganda USD 16.7 mCameroon USD 15.2 mBurkina Faso USD 14.6 mSenegal USD 12.1 mZambia USD 9.3 m

Source: USGS OFR 82-788 · 1982

Salt

Arid coast solar-evaporation potential · Maturity: Artisanal · Competitiveness: Medium
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: USGS context · 2019

Bananas & tropical fruit

Historic Shabelle plantations · Maturity: Collapsed · Competitiveness: Medium
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 297.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080300Bananas, incl. plantains, fresh or dried
080310Fruit, edible; plantains, fresh or dried
080390Fruit, edible; bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 134.9 mLibya USD 52 mSouth Africa USD 43 mMorocco USD 13.9 mSenegal USD 10.8 mTunisia USD 9.2 mBotswana USD 9.1 mSomalia your own imports USD 5 m

Somalia is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Trade.gov · 2024

Fish & seafood

Longest African coast; large EEZ · Maturity: Artisanal; exports tiny · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 286 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030211Fish; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhyn
030212Fresh or chilled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta,...
030213Fish; fresh or chilled, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tsch
030214Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0
030219Fish; fresh or chilled, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish off
030221Fish; fresh or chilled, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excl
030222Fish; fresh or chilled, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of s
030223Fish; fresh or chilled, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03
030224Fish; fresh or chilled, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish o
030229Fish; fresh or chilled, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.2, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offa
030231Fish; fresh or chilled, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edibl
030232Fish; fresh or chilled, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal
030233Fish; fresh or chilled, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030234Fish; fresh or chilled, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030235Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030236Fish; fresh or chilled, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030239Fish; fresh or chilled, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030240Fresh or chilled herrings (Clupea harengus, clupea pallasii)
030241Fish; fresh or chilled, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030242Fish; fresh or chilled, anchovies (Engraulis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030243Fish; fresh or chilled, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030244Fish; fresh or chilled, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030245Fish; fresh or chilled, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030246Fresh or chilled cobia "Rachycentron canadum"
030247Fish; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030249Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030250Fresh or chilled cod (gadus morhua, gadus ogac, gadus macrocephalus)
030251Fish; fresh or chilled, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030252Fish; fresh or chilled, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030253Fish; fresh or chilled, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030254Fish; fresh or chilled, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030255Fish; fresh or chilled, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030256Fish; fresh or chilled, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis),excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030259Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030261Fresh or chilled sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.),...
030262Fresh or chilled haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030264Fresh or chilled mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)
030265Fresh or chilled dogfish and other sharks
030269Fresh or chilled freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack...
030270Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes
030271Fish; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030272Fish; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030273Fish; fresh or chilled, Carp (as specified by the WCO.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030274Fish; fresh or chilled, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030279Fish; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030281Fish; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030282Fish; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030283Fish; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030284Fish; fresh or chilled, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030285Fish; fresh or chilled, seabream (Sparidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030289Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in heading 0302, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030290Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes
030291Fish; fresh or chilled, livers, roes and milt
030292Fish; fresh or chilled, shark fins
030299Fish; fresh or chilled, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal
030410Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat, whether or not minced
030411Fresh or chilled fillets and other meat whether or not minced" of swordfish "Xiphias gladius"
030419Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat whether or not minced" (excluding swordfish and . . .
030420Frozen fish fillets
030429Frozen fish fillets (excluding swordfish and toothfish)
030431Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030432Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030433Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus)
030439Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, carp (as specified by the WCO), eels (Anguilla spp.), and snakeheads (Channa spp.)
030441Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha, Oncorhynchus kisutch, Oncorhynchus masou and Oncorhynchus rhodurus), Atlantic (Salmo salar), Danube (Hucho hucho)
030442Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae, Oncorhynchus apache and Oncorhynchus chrysogaster)
030443Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Citharidae)
030444Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030445Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030446Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030447Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks
030448Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030449Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, other than fish of heading 0304.4
030451Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030452Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, salmonidae
030453Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030454Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030455Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030457Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030459Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of fish n.e.c. in item no. 0304.5
030461Fish fillets; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030462Fish fillets; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030463Fish fillets; frozen, Nile Perch (Lates niloticus)
030469Fish fillets; frozen, carp (Cyprinus/Carassius/Ctenopharyngodon idellus/Hypophthalmichthys/Cirrhinus/Mylopharyngodon piceus/Catla catla/Labeo/Osteochilus hasselti/Leptobarbus hoeveni/Megalobrama), eels (Anguilla) and snakeheads (Channa)
030471Fish fillets; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030472Fish fillets; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030473Fish fillets; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030474Fish fillets; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030475Fish fillets; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030479Fish fillets; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, and Alaska pollock
030481Fish fillets; frozen, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha, Oncorhynchus kisutch, Oncorhynchus masou, Oncorhynchus rhodurus), Atlantic (Salmo salar), and Danube (Hucho hucho)
030482Fish fillets; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae, Oncorhynchus apache and Oncorhynchus chrysogaster)
030483Fish fillets; frozen, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Citharidae)
030484Fish fillets; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030485Fish fillets; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030486Fish fillets; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii)
030487Fish fillets; frozen, tunas (of the genus Thunnus), skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis)
030488Fish fillets; frozen, dogfish, other sharks, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030489Fish fillets; frozen, of fish n.e.c. in heading 0304.8
030490Frozen fish meat, whether or not minced (excluding fillets)
030491Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030492Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030493Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030494Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030495Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae, other than Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030496Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, dogfish and other sharks
030497Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030499Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0304.9
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 67.7 mNigeria USD 40.7 mEgypt USD 36.7 mMorocco USD 32.8 mGhana USD 20.3 mAlgeria USD 18.2 mLibya USD 15.9 mMauritius USD 11.8 m

Source: World Bank; FAO · 2024

Dimension stone (granite/marble)

Documented; Berbera quarry idle · Maturity: Quarrying idle · Competitiveness: Low-Medium
GREY
USD 181 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251511Marble and travertine; having a specific gravity of 2.5 or more, crude or roughly trimmed by sawing or otherwise, into b
251512Marble and travertine; merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shap
251520Ecaussine and other calcareous monumental or building stone; alabaster, having a specific gravity of 2.5 or more
251611Granite; crude or roughly trimmed
251612Granite; merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shape
251620Sandstone;. whether or not roughly trimmed, cut, by sawing etc, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square)
251621Sandstone, crude or roughly trimmed (excluding already with the characteristics of setts, curbstones...
251622Sandstone, merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a square or rectangular...
251690Monumental or building stone; n.e.c. in heading no. 2516, whether or not roughly trimmed or merely cut, by sawing or oth

Somalia imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 86.1 mAlgeria USD 53.2 mTunisia USD 15.2 mSouth Africa USD 4.9 mMorocco USD 4.4 mLibya USD 3.6 mGambia USD 2.7 mNamibia USD 1.7 m

Source: USGS · 2019

Live sheep & goats

World #2 exporter; 57.5% of exports; ~56M herd · Maturity: Live animals only · Competitiveness: High
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 167.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
010410Sheep; live
010420Goats; live
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 62.8 mSouth Africa USD 45.5 mLibya USD 42 mGuinea USD 3.4 mGhana USD 1.7 mMauritius USD 1.6 mKenya USD 1.6 mEgypt USD 1.5 m

Source: OEC; FSNAU/Min Livestock · 2024

Hides, skins & leather

Livestock by-product; ~US$7M exports · Maturity: Raw hides; negligible tanning · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 127.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
410110Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing <= 8 kg when dried, <= 10 kg when dry-salted and . . .
410120Raw hides and skins; whole, unsplit, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin not exceeding 8kg when simply dri
410121Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing > 14 kg, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired . . .
410122Raw butts and bends of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split
410129Raw hides and skins of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split . . .
410150Hides and skins; raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg
410190Hides and skins; other than whole, but including butts, bends and bellies, of bovine (including. buffalo) and equine ani
410310Raw hides and skins of goats or kids, fresh or salted, dried, limed, pickled or otherwise preserved,...
410320Hides and skins; raw, of reptiles (fresh or salted, dried, limed, pickled or otherwise preserved, but not tanned, parchm
410330Hides and skins; raw, of swine, (fresh or salted, dried, limed, pickled or otherwise preserved, but not tanned, parchmen
410390Hides and skins; raw, of animals n.e.c. in this chapter, fresh, salted, dried, limed, pickled or otherwise preserved, (b
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Somalia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 106.8 mEgypt USD 7.4 mGhana USD 5.2 mUganda USD 3.5 mKenya USD 1.8 mTunisia USD 1.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.9 mBenin USD 0.3 m

Source: SDRB · 2023

Sheep/goat & camel meat

Large herd; ~US$16M fresh meat to Gulf · Maturity: Few modern abattoirs · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 87.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
020410Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020421Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), fresh or chilled
020422Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020423Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
020430Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, frozen
020441Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), frozen
020442Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), frozen
020443Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, frozen
020450Meat; of goats, fresh, chilled or frozen
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 1.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius USD 24.5 mEgypt USD 16.9 mLiberia USD 11.6 mLibya USD 8 mSouth Africa USD 5.9 mGhana USD 3.9 mSeychelles USD 3.7 mTunisia USD 2.2 m

Source: SDRB; FAO · 2023

Frankincense, myrrh & gum resins

World's principal Boswellia/Commiphora source · Maturity: Raw sort/grade; minimal distillation · Competitiveness: Niche/global
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 40.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
130110Natural lac
130120Gum Arabic
130190Natural gums, resins, gum-resins and oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 1301
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Somalia imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 7.7 mEswatini USD 7.1 mEgypt USD 4.8 mMorocco USD 3.7 mAlgeria USD 3 mBurkina Faso USD 2.9 mEthiopia USD 2.5 mLibya USD 1.6 m

Source: Trade.gov; PRX/UNEP · 2020

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Somalia is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Somalia buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Somalia is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 5.30 bn

Somalia’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

18

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierSomalia imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Camel & other dairyEMERGINGUSD 204.7 mUSD 3.74 bn
Construction steel (rebar)ASPIRATIONALUSD 69.1 mUSD 2.6 bn
Natural gasASPIRATIONALUSD 7 mUSD 10.27 bn
Bananas & tropical fruitASPIRATIONALUSD 5 mUSD 297.6 m
Sheep/goat & camel meatEMERGINGUSD 1.4 mUSD 87.8 m
Sesame seed & oilEMERGINGUSD 0.9 mUSD 695.1 m
Gypsum / industrial mineralsGREYUSD 0.6 mUSD 386.9 m
SaltASPIRATIONALUSD 0.3 mUSD 303.1 m
Frankincense, myrrh & gum resinsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.3 mUSD 40.6 m
Live cattle & camelsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.2 mUSD 994.3 m
Fish & seafoodEMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 286 m
Dimension stone (granite/marble)GREYUSD 0.1 mUSD 181 m
Crude petroleumASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 11.08 bn
GoldGREYUSD 0 mUSD 2.99 bn

Left-hand column: what Somalia itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Somalia’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 18 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Somalia’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Somalia. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Somalia’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Somalia’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 8.08 bn
02South AfricaUSD 6.9 bn
03Cote dIvoireUSD 3.57 bn
04MoroccoUSD 3.25 bn
05AlgeriaUSD 2.54 bn
06TunisiaUSD 2.54 bn
07UgandaUSD 1.94 bn
08SenegalUSD 1.19 bn
09LibyaUSD 885.2 m
10NigeriaUSD 618.8 m
11GhanaUSD 573.9 m
12KenyaUSD 402.8 m
13TanzaniaUSD 298.2 m
14MozambiqueUSD 230.9 m
15DjiboutiUSD 224.7 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Somalia. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Somalia would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Somalia to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Disease control and SPS infrastructure

Continental-grade veterinary services, traceability, vaccination at scale and recognised halal/SPS certification are needed to lift importer bans and open access to African buyers.

02

Cold chain and export-grade abattoirs

Investment in export-grade slaughterhouses, chilling and reefer logistics at Berbera, Bosaso and Mogadishu is required to move from live animals to certified chilled meat, itself contingent on reliable power.

03

Firm, affordable power

The world-class wind and solar potential must be converted into firm, affordable generation via mini-grids and hybrids to drop processing energy costs toward regional norms.

04

Security and institutions

Al-Shabaab disruption of trekking corridors must be contained, and federal and Somaliland frictions resolved enough to secure Berbera's status and financing.

05

Finance and standards bodies

Re-entry to correspondent banking, a functioning national standards and certification authority and AfCFTA rules-of-origin compliance are preconditions for continental trade.

06

Domestic resin distillation

Building domestic distillation capacity for essential oils with sustainable-harvest certification would capture the frankincense and myrrh value now lost to Grasse.

The binding constraints
·

Power Tariffs of USD 0.36–0.90/kWh, no national grid and ~400 MW of mostly diesel capacity make energy a binding constraint on any energy-intensive processing, including meat cold chain, canning and resin distillation.

·

Logistics Outside the Berbera and Bosaso nodes road networks are weak and there is no rail, while fisheries carry 30–40% post-harvest and cold-chain losses.

·

Capital and finance Exclusion from global correspondent banking and the de-risking of money-transfer operators leave the economy reliant on diaspora remittances, with negligible manufacturing FDI.

·

Skills With 83% of employment informal and a thin TVET and tertiary technical base, SPS and quality-certification capacity is limited.

·

Governance and security Al-Shabaab insurgency disrupts inland trade and deters investment, federal–member-state fragmentation persists, and contested Somaliland status clouds Berbera's legal and financing position amid weak central revenue and institutions.

·

Single-buyer and feedstock dependency Gulf concentration (~80% of exports to Saudi Arabia and Oman), drought-driven herd shocks and importer disease bans expose the core trade to sudden loss of market.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Somalia’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

An aspirational allocation is not a capability claim. Somalia holds lines against which capability must still be built. Nothing here should be read as present capacity, and the instrument’s value to Somalia lies in the demand certainty, not in near-term supply.

05

Power is the binding constraint on any processing step. Tariffs of USD 0.36 to 0.90 per kWh, no national grid and roughly 400 MW of mostly diesel capacity make energy-intensive processing uncompetitive. The audit names meat cold chain, canning and distillation as the specific activities gated by this.

06

Value capture sits offshore because the country exports raw, not finished, goods. Live animals rather than meat, raw resin rather than essential oils, wet-blue rather than finished leather. Each beneficiation step requires certification, cold chain and power that the audit records as absent or nascent.

07

Single-buyer concentration is a structural exposure. Roughly 80 per cent of exports go to Saudi Arabia and Oman, and the Saudi Rift Valley Fever bans between 2000 and 2009 cut up to 95 per cent of exports. Drought-driven herd shocks and importer disease bans remain live threats.

08

Sanitary and phytosanitary capability does not yet exist at continental grade. The audit requires continental-grade veterinary services, traceability, vaccination at scale and recognised halal and SPS certification before African buyers can be accessed. Fisheries similarly lack HACCP and ISO certification, with post-harvest losses of 30 to 40 per cent.

09

Logistics are strong at two nodes and weak everywhere else. Outside Berbera and Bosaso, road networks are weak and there is no rail. The reach of the export spine into the interior is therefore limited, and inland trekking corridors are exposed to disruption.

10

Finance and banking access are constrained. Somalia faces exclusion from global banking and de-risking of money-transfer operators, with reliance on diaspora remittances of roughly USD 1.3 to 2.0 billion a year and negligible manufacturing foreign direct investment. Re-entry to correspondent banking is a precondition.

11

Governance and security frictions cloud the anchor asset. Al-Shabaab insurgency disrupts inland trade and deters investment, federal and member-state fragmentation persists, and contested Somaliland status clouds Berbera's legal and financing position. The audit makes resolution of these frictions a condition of delivery.

12

The skills base is thin and overwhelmingly informal. Some 83 per cent of employment is informal per the 2019 Labour Force Survey, with a thin technical and vocational training base and limited quality-certification capacity, against a labour force that is young and abundant with 80 per cent under 35.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Somalia's Draft 1 bundle rests on three durable endowments and one working corridor: a livestock complex of approximately 57 million head rooted in ecology and centuries-old husbandry, a near-monopoly on Boswellia frereana that places the country among the world's top three suppliers of frankincense and myrrh, the longest mainland coastline in Africa with a sustainable pelagic potential of about 200,000 tonnes a year, and the Berbera and Bosaso ports whose vessel turnaround fell from 64 hours in 2018 to 25 hours by 2024. Everything above the raw input line must still be proven. The audit sets its own benchmarks: a single operational export-grade halal abattoir with continental SPS recognition would move chilled red meat from emerging toward strong, and one commercial resin-distillation facility would move essential oils from aspirational to emerging. Those two facilities, together with firm and affordable generation drawn from onshore wind potential of 30,000 to 45,000 MW, re-entry to correspondent banking, a functioning national standards authority and containment of the security frictions around the Berbera corridor, are the conditions on which any continental supply role for Somalia depends.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Somalia is shown 18 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Somalia to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2