Right of Supply — Sierra Leone

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Sheku Ahmed Fantamadi Bangura, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Sierra Leone · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Bangura,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Sierra Leone — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Sierra Leone is in this room

Sierra Leone's strongest endowment is natural rutile and high-grade titanium feedstock. The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 records the largest natural rutile reserves in the world at 2.9 million tonnes and identifies Sierra Leone as the world's largest natural rutile producer, with concentrate exceeding 95 per cent titanium dioxide, a mineral separation plant of 175,000 tonnes a year capacity and dedicated port logistics at Nitti behind a fifty-year operating history. The honest constraint is that the prize is feedstock, not pigment. Functional installed generation is under 150 MW nationally with about 36 per cent electricity access, so pigment-stage value cannot be captured domestically; the operation itself has repeatedly suspended or threatened closure and sits under untested local ownership following the Leonoil acquisition of October 2024, with future output dependent on financing the Sembehun project as Area 1 depletes.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Sierra Leone, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Sierra Leone

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

14draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Sierra Leone’s draft bundle. 14 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Iron ore & high-grade concentrate, Natural rutile / titanium feedstock. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 strong contender · 6 emerging · 6 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Sierra Leone is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 14 candidate lines proposed for Sierra Leone below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Sierra Leone. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Sierra Leone will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Sierra Leone will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

14 lines

Sierra Leone’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Sierra Leone at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Sierra Leone’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Sierra Leone’s own capability audit.

Titanium dioxide pigment (finished, HS 3206)

The audit records the beneficiation stage as absent: feedstock advantage only, no plant and no power. Africa imports nearly all its pigment, and without reliable power Sierra Leone cannot capture pigment-stage value. Moving from rutile to pigment would require several hundred MW of reliable, competitively priced power, chloride-process technology, an anchor investor and hundreds of millions of dollars of capital expenditure, which the audit judges not credible this decade.

Capability inversion

Steel and semi-finished steel products (HS 7207)

Sierra Leone holds very large iron ore reserves and ships more than half its exports as ore, but the audit records no smelting and no power. Iron ore to steel requires large baseload power and capital absent today and remains aspirational.

Raw base, industrial screen

Alumina and aluminium (HS 2818 / Chapter 76)

Gondama bauxite is high-grade gibbsitic at roughly 46 per cent alumina and runs at about 2 million tonnes a year, but the audit records bauxite feedstock only, with no refinery and no power. Output has historically been shipped almost entirely to Vimetco's Romanian alumina refinery.

Raw base, industrial screen

Hydro-based clean electricity for regional supply (WAPP)

The audit is explicit that over 1,000 MW of hydro potential is potential, not installed capacity. Functional installed generation nationally is under 150 MW and only about 36 per cent of the population has access to electricity, so this category is classified aspirational.

Potential versus installed

Marine fish and shrimp (processed, HS 0306)

Stocks in the Guinea Current are rich and total production runs at roughly 150,000 tonnes a year, but the audit records the stage as raw and artisanal with little processing, and processing and cold-chain capacity as weak. It is classified aspirational.

Processing absent

Palm oil (HS 1511)

Agro-ecology is suited to oil palm, but the audit records production as mostly subsistence and domestic, and the category as raw and domestic in stage. It is classified aspirational.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Sierra Leone actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Sierra Leone. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Sierra Leone's endowment is defined by three mineral positions. The first is natural rutile, the titanium dioxide ore in which the country holds the largest reserves in the world. The USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 records reserves of 2,900,000 tonnes and production of 60,000 tonnes in 2024, against 110,000 tonnes in 2023, and repeatedly identifies Sierra Leone as the world's largest natural rutile producer. Concentrate grade exceeds 95 per cent titanium dioxide. The operator, Sierra Rutile Ltd, runs a mineral separation plant with a capacity of 175,000 tonnes of rutile a year. The second is iron ore: Tonkolili, held by Kingho/Leone Rock Metals, carries a resource widely cited at 13.7 billion tonnes, while Marampa, held by the Gerald Group, reached roughly 3.75 million tonnes a year of "Marampa Blue" concentrate grading above 65 per cent iron as of January 2025. Iron ore accounted for 55.3 per cent of 2024 exports. The third is high-grade gibbsitic bauxite: the Sierra Mineral Holdings (Vimetco) Gondama deposit holds a resource of about 31 million tonnes at roughly 46 per cent alumina, producing about 2 million tonnes a year, historically shipped almost entirely to Vimetco's Romanian alumina refinery.

Beyond the three anchors, the country's 2024 mineral export total was US$1.12 billion per the Ministry of Mines and Mineral Resources, down 3.78 per cent from US$1.16 billion in 2023, a dip linked primarily to a global diamond price slump affecting Koidu Ltd. Diamond production is largely artisanal and alluvial. The Baomahun gold project (FG Gold) carries a JORC resource of 5.8 million ounces with first commercial production targeted for 2025 at roughly 185,000 ounces a year. Zircon and ilmenite arise as rutile by-products; coltan, chromite, lithium and rare earths remain at exploration stage only. In agriculture, cocoa stood at roughly 18,000 tonnes in 2023, worth about US$50 million and among the top-five exports, with beans exported raw, mostly to the European Union. Fisheries production runs at roughly 150,000 tonnes a year, of which artisanal catch is about 120,000 tonnes, and fish supplies some 80 per cent of animal protein consumed. Logistically, Sierra Leone holds a coastal advantage with one of West Africa's finest natural harbours: Freetown's Queen Elizabeth II Quay offers 1,067 metres of quay and six berths at roughly 7 to 10 metres of draft, with dedicated mineral ports at Nitti for rutile and bauxite and Pepel for iron ore.

Revealed comparative advantage above unity is concentrated in unprocessed ores and concentrates, namely titanium and rutile, iron, aluminium ore and zircon, plus cocoa beans. Economic complexity is among the world's lowest; the Atlas of Economic Complexity treats Sierra Leone as the canonical low-complexity resource exporter. The exact rank and value from the Harvard Growth Lab could not be confirmed at the figure level and is marked grey. The feasible diversification set near the country's current capabilities is narrow. The credible upgrades are one beneficiation step up within existing chains, rutile to titanium slag or pigment feedstock, cocoa beans to paste and butter, fish to processed and frozen product, rather than leaps into unrelated complex goods.

The endowment in depth

Sierra Leone's mineral and metal endowment is world-class and, in one category, unrivalled. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 records the country as holding the world's largest natural rutile reserves at 2,900,000 tonnes, with production of 60,000 t in 2024 and 110,000 t in 2023, and repeatedly identifies it as the world's largest natural rutile producer; the Sierra Rutile Ltd concentrate exceeds 95% TiO2 and the operation runs a Mineral Separation Plant with capacity of 175,000 t rutile a year. Iron ore is the export mainstay at 55.3% of 2024 exports: the Tonkolili deposit (Kingho/Leone Rock Metals) carries a resource widely cited at 13.7 billion tonnes, while Marampa (Gerald Group) reached roughly 3.75 Mtpa of >65% Fe "Marampa Blue" concentrate as of January 2025. High-grade gibbsitic bauxite is worked by Sierra Mineral Holdings (Vimetco) at the Gondama deposit, a resource of about 31 Mt at ~46% alumina producing around 2 Mtpa, historically shipped almost entirely to Vimetco's Romanian alumina refinery. The Ministry of Mines and Mineral Resources put the 2024 mineral export total at US$1.12 billion, down 3.78% from US$1.16 billion in 2023, the dip linked primarily to a global diamond price slump affecting Koidu Ltd; diamond output is largely artisanal and alluvial. Gold is emerging through Baomahun (FG Gold), a JORC resource of 5.8 million ounces with first commercial production targeted for 2025 at about 185,000 oz/yr, alongside under-reported artisanal output. Zircon and ilmenite arise as rutile by-products, while coltan, chromite, lithium and rare earths remain at exploration stage only.

The binding weakness sits in energy. Functional installed generation capacity is under 150 MW for a population of roughly 8.5 million, anchored by Bumbuna I hydro (50 MW, commissioned 2009). Access to electricity was 35.5% of the population in 2023, and the World Bank's National Energy Compact (2025) states that only 36% have access while clean cooking access is just 1.5%. Hydro potential is genuinely large — over 1,000 MW cited by the US ITA, and a UNIDO 2013 study estimated up to ~5,000 MW across some 300 sites — but this is potential, not installed capacity. Bumbuna II (~143 MW) is under development, and the US Millennium Challenge Corporation compact (US$480m US funding plus US$14.2m from the Government of Sierra Leone, signed September 2024) targets grid strengthening. Energy is the single decisive constraint on any heavy processing — smelting, pigment or alumina.

Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are broad but shallow in value-addition. Cocoa is a top-five export at roughly 18,000 t in 2023 (about US$50m), with beans exported raw mostly to the EU and the Netherlands; a FAOSTAT figure of 93,750 t for 2024 is flagged as anomalous, the 2023 number being the reliable baseline. Rice is the staple yet the country is a net importer, taking in about 480,000 t in 2022, roughly one-third of consumption, while oil palm, cassava and groundnuts remain largely subsistence. Fisheries yield about 150,000 t a year (artisanal ~120,000 t), fish supply around 80% of animal protein consumed, and shrimp is the main export-grade product, but processing and cold-chain capacity is weak.

The existing industrial base, human capital and logistics reveal the endowment-versus-capability gap. Manufacturing value added was 8.0% of GDP in 2024, only modestly above 7.67% in 2023, concentrated in Freetown import-substitution consumer goods (beverages, cigarettes, soap, footwear, cement); there are no smelters, refineries or pigment plants, and mineral processing is limited to physical concentration — gravity separation for rutile, crushing and spirals for iron ore. Mining is capital-intensive and thin on jobs: the sector employed 15,929 workers as of December 2024 (14,807 Sierra Leoneans and 1,122 expatriates), against a large young labour force still roughly 60% in subsistence agriculture, with specialised metallurgical and mineral-processing skills scarce. Logistically the country has a coastal advantage and one of West Africa's finest natural harbours: Freetown's Queen Elizabeth II Quay offers 1,067 m of quay, six berths and about 7–10 m draft, with dedicated mineral ports at Nitti (rutile and bauxite) and Pepel (iron ore, served by a single ageing railway), while interior road and rail are weak enough that operators must build their own infrastructure — and the World Bank's B-READY 2025 ranks Sierra Leone 145th of 180 economies for business and investment climate.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Sierra Leone's revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) is concentrated almost entirely in unprocessed ores and concentrates — titanium/rutile, iron, aluminium ore and zircon — plus cocoa beans, making it a strong net exporter in the "ores, slag and ash" category and little else. Economic complexity is among the world's lowest: the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity uses Sierra Leone as its textbook example of a low-complexity, low-diversification economy, the canonical country that "principally exports diamonds." The precise ECI rank and value from the Harvard Growth Lab could not be confirmed at the figure level and is marked GREY, because both the Atlas and OEC serve those numbers via JavaScript not exposed to retrieval; directionally, the economy sits near the bottom of the global ECI distribution.

The consequence for diversification is that the feasible set near Sierra Leone's current capabilities is narrow. The credible upgrades are one beneficiation step up within existing chains — rutile to titanium slag or pigment feedstock, cocoa beans to paste and butter, fish to processed or frozen product — rather than leaps into unrelated complex goods. There are few feasible near-term diversification adjacencies, so any realistic industrial strategy has to work along the resource chains the country already possesses rather than assume new ones.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Sierra Leone's single most defensible continental supply position is natural rutile and high-grade titanium feedstock (HS 2614), and the evidence is unambiguous and Tier-1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 records the world's largest natural rutile reserves at 2.9 million tonnes and identifies Sierra Leone as the world's largest natural rutile producer; the Sierra Rutile concentrate exceeds 95% TiO2 and is among the highest-quality high-grade titanium feedstocks available globally. Critically, this is the rare Sierra Leonean mineral that already moves one step up the beneficiation ladder — it is a separated, market-ready mineral concentrate, not run-of-mine ore — and the country operates a mineral separation plant of 175,000 t/yr capacity plus dedicated port logistics at Nitti. Deliverability is real: the operation is coastal, with established export infrastructure and a 50-year operating history, so the combination of a number-one global resource position, existing processing-to-concentrate capability, established export performance and genuine continental demand for titanium feedstock gives rutile the clearest right to supply.

The honest limits are four. First, operational fragility: Sierra Rutile has repeatedly suspended or threatened closure (2020, and a 2024 strike and fatality) and is now under untested local ownership after Leonoil's October 2024 acquisition. Second, reserve depletion at Area 1, with future output dependent on financing the Sembehun project (DFS NPV8 of about US$408m against capex of roughly US$301m). Third, the prize is feedstock, not pigment — Africa imports finished TiO2, and without reliable power Sierra Leone cannot capture pigment-stage value. Fourth, continental TiO2 demand of around 150,000 t a year is small relative to global demand, which bounds the substitution prize even where the resource position is strongest.

Current reality

Sierra Leone is a small, mineral-dependent West African coastal economy with GDP of US$7.55 billion in 2024, a population of roughly 8.5 million, and real GDP growth of 4.4 per cent in 2024. Mining contributed over 70 per cent of export earnings, 0.8 per cent of GDP, 5.2 per cent of government revenue and 3.5 per cent of employment in 2024 on the US International Trade Administration's reading, yet almost all mineral output leaves the country raw or as concentrate, with negligible domestic beneficiation. Manufacturing value added was 8.0 per cent of GDP in 2024, only modestly above the 2023 figure of 7.67 per cent, and output is import-substitution consumer goods concentrated in Freetown: beverages, cigarettes, soap, footwear and cement. There are no smelters, refineries or pigment plants. Mineral processing is limited to physical concentration, gravity separation for rutile and crushing and spirals for iron ore. Early-stage value-addition pilots noted by mid-2025, including diamond polishing workshops, a gold refinery feasibility study and Kingho's proposed iron pellet plant, remain unproven.

Energy is the binding constraint on any heavy processing. Functional installed generation capacity is under 150 MW for some 8.5 million people, the anchor asset being Bumbuna I hydro at 50 MW commissioned in 2009. Access to electricity stood at 35.5 per cent of the population in 2023, and the National Energy Compact records clean cooking access at just 1.5 per cent. Hydro potential is large, with over 1,000 MW cited by the US ITA and a UNIDO 2013 study estimating up to roughly 5,000 MW across 300 sites, but this is potential rather than installed capacity. Bumbuna II, at roughly 143 MW, is under development, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation compact signed in September 2024, comprising US$480 million in US funding and US$14.2 million from the Government of Sierra Leone, targets grid strengthening. Interior road and rail links are weak, companies must build their own infrastructure, and the World Bank's B-READY 2025 ranks Sierra Leone 145th of 180 economies for business and investment climate.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 14 candidate lines · will change

Sierra Leone’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Sierra Leone’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Sierra Leone will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Sierra Leone’s 14 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 2Emerging 6Aspirational 6

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Palm oil

Agro-ecology suited; subsistence · Maturity: Raw/domestic · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 6.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151110Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151190Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 3.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.32 bnKenya USD 838.9 mEthiopia USD 491.4 mSouth Africa USD 462 mDjibouti USD 451.6 mUganda USD 311.4 mMozambique USD 250.1 mSomalia USD 201.9 m

Source: trade.gov/World Bank · 2024-2025

Gold (doré/refined)

Baomahun 5.8 M oz; first mine 2025 · Maturity: Raw/artisanal · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: FG Gold/intellinews · 2025

Iron ore & high-grade concentrate

Very large reserves (Tonkolili 13.7 Bt); Marampa >65% Fe · Maturity: Raw/intermediate concentrate · Competitiveness: Large (AfCFTA steel)

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated

260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)

260120Iron pyrites; roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: worldstopexports/USGS · 2024

Hydro electricity (WAPP)

1,000+ MW hydro potential · Maturity: Potential, not installed · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271600Electrical energy

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 12.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: trade.gov/AfDB · 2024

Diamonds (rough)

Long-standing alluvial gem production · Maturity: Raw rough · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 1.75 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710210Diamonds; whether or not worked, but not mounted or set, unsorted

710221Diamonds; industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710229Diamonds; industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

710231Diamonds; non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710239Diamonds; non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Botswana USD 970.9 mSouth Africa USD 578.4 mNamibia USD 111.7 mMauritius USD 76 mMorocco USD 5.8 mTunisia USD 3 mLiberia USD 1.2 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Source: OEC/trade.gov · 2022-2024

Steel / semi-finished

Iron ore feedstock only; no smelting/power · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 1.71 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

720711Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel; containing by weight less than 0.25% of carb

720712Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel; containing by weight less than 0.25% of carb

720719Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight less than 0.25% of carb

720720Iron or non-alloy steel; semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight 0.25% or more of carbon

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 466.8 mMorocco USD 315.1 mTunisia USD 309.5 mKenya USD 168.5 mCameroon USD 150.5 mEthiopia USD 85 mTanzania USD 71.9 mUganda USD 43 m

Source: WEF · 2026

Alumina / aluminium

Bauxite feedstock only; no refinery/power · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 891.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

281810Aluminium oxide; artificial corundum

281820Aluminium oxide; other than artificial corundum

281830Aluminium hydroxide

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 524.3 mEgypt USD 175.2 mMozambique USD 62.1 mCameroon USD 59.1 mGhana USD 34.4 mTunisia USD 10.6 mMorocco USD 7.7 mNigeria USD 6.3 m

Source: intellinews · 2025

Titanium dioxide pigment

Feedstock only; no plant/power · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 683.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

320611Colouring matter; pigments and preparations based on titanium dioxide, containing 80% or more by weight of titanium diox

320619Colouring matter; pigments and preparations based on titanium dioxide, containing less than 80% by weight of titanium di

320620Colouring matter; pigments and preparations based on chromium compounds

320630Pigments and preparations based on cadmium compounds of a kind used to dye fabrics or produce...

320641Colouring matter; ultramarine and preparations based thereon

320642Colouring matter; lithopone and other pigments and preparations based on zinc sulphide

320643Pigments and preparations based on hexacyanoferrates "Ferrocyanides and ferricyanides", of...

320649Colouring matter; other preparations n.e.c. in item no. 3206.4

320650Colouring matter; inorganic products of a kind used as luminophores

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Sierra Leone imported USD 0.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 183.9 mSouth Africa USD 88.6 mMorocco USD 69.4 mAlgeria USD 63.2 mNigeria USD 43.1 mKenya USD 34.4 mTunisia USD 28.9 mCote dIvoire USD 18.6 m

Source: Ceresana/Bonafide · 2024

Marine fish/shrimp (processed)

Rich Guinea Current stocks ~150,000 t/yr · Maturity: Raw/little processing · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 302.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030611Crustaceans; frozen, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not,

030612Crustaceans; frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell,

030613Frozen shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns in shell, cooked...

030614Crustaceans; frozen, crabs, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steamin

030615Crustaceans; frozen, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smok

030616Crustaceans; frozen, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or

030617Crustaceans; frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before o

030619Crustaceans; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.1, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shel

030621Rock lobster and other sea crawfish "Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp. and Jasus spp.", even smoked,...

030622Lobsters "Homarus spp.", even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried,...

030623Shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, live, dried, salted or in brine, incl. shrimps...

030624Crabs, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted or in brine,...

030626Cold-water shrimps and prawns "Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon", even smoked, whether in shell . . .

030627Shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted...

030629Crustaceans, even smoked, fit for human consumption, whether in shell or not, live, fresh,...

030631Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not

030632Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, lobsters (Homarus spp.), whether in shell or not

030633Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, crabs, whether in shell or not

030634Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not

030635Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not

030636Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, shrimps and prawns excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not

030639Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.3, in shell or not

030691Crustaceans; rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030692Crustaceans; lobsters (Homarus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030693Crustaceans; crabs, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030694Crustaceans; Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030695Crustaceans; shrimps and prawns, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030699Crustaceans; smoked, whole, cooked or not, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.9, in shell or not

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 122.8 mMorocco USD 101.3 mSouth Africa USD 38.5 mMauritius USD 17.1 mSeychelles USD 4.8 mTunisia USD 2.4 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mGhana USD 1.5 m

Source: FAO/MFMR · 2023

Cocoa beans (→paste/butter)

Top-5 export smallholder crop · Maturity: Raw beans · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: FAOSTAT/trade.gov · 2023-2024

Bauxite

High-grade gibbsitic ~46% alumina, ~2 Mtpa · Maturity: Raw ore · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 16.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260600Aluminium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 5.8 mSouth Africa USD 5.4 mUganda USD 1.1 mSenegal USD 0.9 mZimbabwe USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.7 mKenya USD 0.6 mAngola USD 0.4 m

Source: NMA/Mining Journal · 2025

Natural rutile / titanium feedstock

World's largest natural rutile reserves (2.9 Mt) & production; >95% TiO2 concentrate · Maturity: Intermediate (market-ready concentrate) · Competitiveness: Moderate-continental/large-global

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 13.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261400Titanium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 6.6 mEgypt USD 3.2 mMorocco USD 1.1 mAlgeria USD 1 mTunisia USD 0.4 mCameroon USD 0.3 mEthiopia USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS · 2025

Ilmenite / titanium slag feedstock

By-product of rutile operations · Maturity: Raw concentrate · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 13.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261400Titanium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Sierra Leone imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 6.6 mEgypt USD 3.2 mMorocco USD 1.1 mAlgeria USD 1 mTunisia USD 0.4 mCameroon USD 0.3 mEthiopia USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS/NMA · 2025-2026

Zircon concentrate

By-product of rutile mining · Maturity: Intermediate concentrate · Competitiveness: Niche

EMERGING

USD 9.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261510Zirconium ores and concentrates

261590Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Sierra Leone imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 2.3 mZambia USD 1.8 mSouth Africa USD 1.4 mTunisia USD 1.4 mAlgeria USD 1.1 mTanzania USD 1 mZimbabwe USD 0.3 mMorocco USD 0.2 m

Source: NMA/Iluka · 2024-2025

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Sierra Leone is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Sierra Leone buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Sierra Leone is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 2.02 bn

Sierra Leone’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Sierra Leone imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Hydro electricity (WAPP)	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 12.1 m	USD 2.24 bn
Palm oil	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 3.3 m	USD 6.9 bn
Titanium dioxide pigment	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.7 m	USD 683.5 m
Natural rutile / titanium feedstock	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.1 m	USD 13.1 m
Ilmenite / titanium slag feedstock	EMERGING	USD 0.1 m	USD 13.1 m
Gold (doré/refined)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 2.99 bn
Iron ore & high-grade concentrate	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 2.85 bn
Diamonds (rough)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 1.75 bn
Steel / semi-finished	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 1.71 bn
Alumina / aluminium	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 891.8 m
Marine fish/shrimp (processed)	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 302.2 m
Cocoa beans (→paste/butter)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 45.3 m
Bauxite	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 16.2 m
Zircon concentrate	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 9.4 m

Left-hand column: what Sierra Leone itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Sierra Leone’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 14 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Sierra Leone’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Sierra Leone. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Sierra Leone’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Sierra Leone’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01EgyptUSD 4.04 bn

02South AfricaUSD 2.72 bn

03UgandaUSD 2.26 bn

04BotswanaUSD 1.13 bn

05KenyaUSD 1.09 bn

06AlgeriaUSD 940.7 m

07MoroccoUSD 785.6 m

08TunisiaUSD 642.8 m

09EthiopiaUSD 576.8 m

10MozambiqueUSD 543.1 m

11DjiboutiUSD 451.8 m

12LibyaUSD 383.3 m

13CameroonUSD 210.2 m

14SomaliaUSD 201.9 m

15Burkina FasoUSD 196.1 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Sierra Leone. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Sierra Leone would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Sierra Leone to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Stabilise and extend rutile supply

Sierra Rutile must be stabilised under Leonoil ownership, and the Sembehun project financed and commissioned to extend mine life beyond Area 1 depletion, with offtake and logistics secured to African pigment and feedstock buyers. This is achievable with capital and operational continuity — no new power is needed merely to supply concentrate.

Reliable industrial power

Moving rutile to finished pigment would require several hundred MW of reliable, competitively-priced power, chloride-process technology, an anchor investor and hundreds of millions of dollars in capex — not credible this decade.

Baseload for metals processing

Both iron ore to steel and bauxite to alumina require large baseload power and capital that are absent today, so both remain aspirational rather than deliverable.

Cocoa aggregation and traceability

Farmer aggregation, EUDR-compliant traceability and modest grinding and processing capacity could move beans up to paste and butter, feasible at small scale.

Deliver enabling grid investment

Bumbuna II and the MCC grid investments would have to be delivered to relieve the power constraint that caps every processing ambition.

Diversify markets and capture revenue

Export destinations would need to diversify toward African markets, and revenue capture and contract stability strengthened, so that paper capability becomes real, repeatable supply.

The binding constraints

Power Under 150 MW is installed nationally against roughly 36% electricity access, leaving no realistic basis for energy-intensive processing — pigment, alumina or steel — without major new generation.

Logistics A single ageing iron-ore railway, weak interior roads and port draft that limits vessel size mean operators must self-provide infrastructure to move product to the coast.

Capital and ownership concentration Each flagship mineral depends on a single foreign or newly-local operator — Sierra Rutile/Leonoil, Kingho, Gerald Group, Vimetco — creating single-operator and single-buyer fragility across the whole endowment.

Governance and fiscal leakage Mining is over 70% of exports, yet the IMF Selected Issues (Country Report 2024/322) notes the extractive sector contributes some 7 percent of GDP and 80 percent of goods exports but employs only about 2.84 percent of the labour force, while the US ITA puts mining at 0.8% of GDP and 5.2% of government revenue in 2024; diamond and gold smuggling and royalty giveaways compound weak revenue capture.

Commodity-price exposure A documented stop-start cycle — iron ore in 2014, rutile in 2020 — driven by price swings repeatedly interrupts output and undermines reliability as a supplier.

Market concentration Roughly 66% of exports go to China, and 88% of mineral exports over January–July 2024, leaving minimal current intra-African orientation on which to build continental supply.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Sierra Leone’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Power is the binding constraint on every processing step. Functional installed generation is under 150 MW nationally with about 36 per cent access. The audit finds no realistic basis for energy-intensive processing in pigment, alumina or steel without major new generation.

Operational fragility sits directly under the trump card. Sierra Rutile has repeatedly suspended or threatened closure, in 2020 and again in 2024 following a strike and a fatality, and is now under untested local ownership after Leonoil's acquisition in October 2024.

Reserve depletion at Area 1 puts future rutile output in question. Continued output depends on financing the Sembehun project, whose definitive feasibility study shows an NPV at 8 per cent of roughly US$408 million against capital expenditure of about US$301 million.

Ownership is concentrated in a single operator per mineral. Each flagship mineral depends on one foreign or newly local operator, namely Sierra Rutile under Leonoil, Kingho, the Gerald Group and Vimetco, producing single-operator and single-buyer fragility.

Logistics constrain both volume and vessel size. There is a single ageing iron-ore railway, weak interior roads and port draft that limits vessel size, and operators must self-provide infrastructure. The World Bank's B-READY 2025 ranks the country 145th of 180 economies.

Fiscal capture from the extractive sector is weak. The IMF Selected Issues paper, Country Report 2024/322, notes the extractive sector contributes some 7 per cent of GDP and 80 per cent of goods exports but employs only about 2.84 per cent of the labour force, while the US ITA puts mining at 0.8 per cent of GDP and 5.2 per cent of government revenue in 2024. Diamond and gold smuggling and royalty giveaways compound weak revenue capture, with the rutile royalty cut to 0.5 per cent in 2021.

Market orientation is concentrated outside the continent. Roughly 66 per cent of exports go to China, with the National Minerals Agency putting China at 88 per cent of mineral exports for January to July 2024. There is minimal current intra-African orientation to build on, and a documented stop-start commodity-price cycle, iron ore in 2014 and rutile in 2020, compounds the exposure.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Sierra Leone's Draft 1 bundle rests on raw and intermediate minerals, with natural rutile concentrate the one clear and defensible position, supported by high-grade iron ore concentrate and, at an emerging level, zircon, ilmenite, bauxite, cocoa beans, gold and rough diamonds. The audit's overall read is that the country holds world-class raw resources but processes almost none of them, so what must be proven is operational rather than geological: stabilising Sierra Rutile under Leonoil ownership, financing and commissioning Sembehun to extend mine life beyond Area 1 depletion, and securing offtake and logistics to African pigment and feedstock buyers, none of which requires new power merely to supply concentrate. Alongside that, the cross-cutting tests are delivering Bumbuna II and the Millennium Challenge Corporation grid investments, diversifying export destinations towards African markets, and strengthening revenue capture and contract stability so that paper capability becomes real, repeatable supply. Anything beyond one beneficiation step, whether pigment, alumina or steel, requires large baseload power and capital that are absent today.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Sierra Leone is shown 14 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Sierra Leone to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Sierra Leone stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Sierra Leone?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Sierra Leone’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Sierra Leone?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.