Right of Supply — Malawi

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Joseph Mwanamvekha, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Malawi · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Mwanamvekha,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Malawi — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Malawi is in this room

Malawi holds the world's largest known natural rutile resource and the world's second-largest flake graphite resource in a single deposit at Kasiya, some 1.8 billion tonnes at 1.01% rutile and 1.32% graphite, with a Definitive Feasibility Study completed on 16 April 2026 setting planned output at 222 ktpa rutile and 275 ktpa graphite — roughly a quarter of global natural rutile supply — and Rio Tinto holding about 19.76% of the owner. The honest constraint is that Kasiya is post-DFS but pre-FID and not yet operational, requiring about US$727M of capex to first production, some 56–60 MW of firm power in a system with 554.24 MW installed and chronic load-shedding, and confirmed rail capacity to deepwater Nacala. Malawi's operational continental capability today is narrower and agro-processing-based: fully refined and fortified cane sugar from Illovo, processed black tea from some 21 factories, pulses, groundnuts and oilseeds.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Malawi, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Malawi

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

19draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Malawi’s draft bundle. 19 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Cane sugar (raw/refined/specialty). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 4 strong contender · 7 emerging · 4 aspirational · 3 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Malawi is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 19 candidate lines proposed for Malawi below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Malawi. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Malawi will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Malawi will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

19 lines

Malawi’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Malawi at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Malawi’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Malawi’s own capability audit.

Natural rutile and flake graphite (Kasiya)

The audit classes both as ASPIRATIONAL: Kasiya is post-DFS but pre-FID and not yet operational, and the audit directs that all forward production volumes be treated as targets, not installed capacity. Intra-African demand for titanium feedstock is recorded as low at present.

Pre-FID · operational screen

Rare earth concentrate, niobium and other pre-production minerals

Songwe Hill (DFS 2022), Kangankunde (targeting first production Q4 2026) and Kanyika niobium are all recorded as pre-production or pre-FID with low intra-African demand. The audit states that domestic processing is essentially absent and every project plans to export concentrate or intermediate product.

Pre-FID · operational screen

Unmanufactured burley tobacco

Rated STRONG CONTENDER globally but GREY continentally: almost the entire crop leaves as unmanufactured leaf, threshing exists but cigarette manufacturing is minimal, and the highest-value line flows to Europe rather than to African markets. Tobacco demand is also recorded as structurally declining.

Raw base · industrial screen

Macadamia nuts

Malawi ranks roughly seventh globally at about 3% share and is a leading exporter, yet about 95% leaves as nut-in-shell to South Africa with minimal in-country processing, and continental demand is recorded as low.

Capability inversion

Cotton lint and apparel

Both are graded GREY. The downstream chain has collapsed: Mapeto David Whitehead & Sons in Blantyre is the only integrated spinner and uses under about 5% of domestically produced lint, while apparel remains a small cut-make-trim base.

Raw base · industrial screen

Uranium (U3O8) and farmed tilapia

Uranium is EMERGING but global: the audit notes continental demand is negligible and the value is global FX rather than AU supply substitution. Farmed tilapia and the Lake Malawi fishery are domestically oriented with negligible export, and chambo stocks have collapsed since the 1980s.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Malawi actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Malawi. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Malawi's mineral endowment is world-class in resource terms and almost entirely pre-production. The Kasiya deposit on the Lilongwe Plain carries a Mineral Resource Estimate of 1.8 billion tonnes at 1.01% rutile and 1.32% graphite — roughly 17.9 Mt of contained rutile, the world's largest natural rutile resource and more than double Sierra Rutile's approximately 8.1 Mt, alongside about 24 Mt of graphite, the world's second-largest flake graphite resource. Sovereign Metals owns the project, with Rio Tinto holding about 19.76%. The Definitive Feasibility Study released on 16 April 2026 sets capex at US$727M to first production, a pre-tax NPV8 of US$2.2B, a 23% IRR and planned output of 222 ktpa rutile and 275 ktpa graphite. Beyond Kasiya, Songwe Hill (Mkango Resources) holds rare earth resources reported between 8.5 Mt at 1.6% TREO and 31.8 Mt at 1.48%, with a July 2022 DFS, designation as an EU Strategic Project in June 2025, planned output of about 5,954 tpa TREO over an 18-year life and capex of about USD 277M; Kangankunde targets first production in Q4 2026; Kanyika holds about 60 Mt at roughly 0.3% Nb2O5, one of Africa's larger niobium resources. Uranium production restarted at Kayelekera in Karonga (Lotus Resources 85%, Government of Malawi 15%), officially reopened on 14 August 2025, with first yellowcake drummed that month, about US$50M restart capex and a target of 200,000 lb per month, or 2.4 Mlb/yr of U3O8. Mining nonetheless contributes under about 1% of GDP, and domestic processing is essentially absent — every critical-mineral project plans to export concentrate or intermediate product through the Nacala corridor.

The agricultural endowment is the operating economy. Agriculture employs about 80% of the workforce and unprocessed agricultural output accounts for around 90% of merchandise export earnings. Tobacco alone is about 46% of merchandise exports, some USD 447–449M in 2023; FAOSTAT records Malawi as the eighth-largest tobacco producer in the world in 2022 at about 103.8 kt, roughly 1.8% of world output and a 40% fall from 172.9 kt in 2010, and Malawi remains the world's leading burley producer. Tea output runs at about 45–46 kt a year through some 21 processing factories, making Malawi Africa's second or third-largest producer, with over 90% estate-grown in Mulanje and Thyolo. Illovo Sugar (Malawi) plc is the sole producer, operating the Nchalo and Dwangwa estates and a Limbe refinery, producing about 203,786 tonnes in the financial year ending August 2025, fully beneficiated across raw, brown, refined, specialty and vitamin-A fortified lines, and holding an IFC USD 81M facility for capital projects. Groundnuts, dried legumes and pulses, soya beans, dried vegetables, pigeon peas, cotton, Arabica coffee and macadamia complete the basket, with Malawi ranked roughly seventh globally in macadamia at about 3% share. The Lake Malawi capture fishery exceeds 100,000 tonnes a year and supports some 1.6 million livelihoods.

The enabling base is thin. Total installed generation capacity stood at 554.24 MW in January 2025, of which 101 MW (18.2%) is solar and about 400 MW is hydro concentrated on the Shire River; EGENCO operates about 444.67 MW across Nkula, Tedzani, Kapichira and Wovwe. Per-capita electricity consumption is about 93 kWh a year against a Sub-Saharan African average near 432 kWh, with electrification at roughly 10–15%. Manufacturing is about 12.3% of GDP (2023) and medium- and high-tech industry was about 11.34% of manufacturing value added in 2019. Malawi is landlocked and dependent on the Nacala, Beira and Dar es Salaam corridors, with a World Bank Logistics Performance Index of about 2.59 (2018) — the highest among the SADC landlocked countries studied, but weak in absolute terms. Economic complexity sits near the bottom of global rankings, with an ECI of approximately −0.769 and rank 91st on 2017 OEC data and about −0.51 on 2021 Harvard Atlas data, and a UNCTAD Productive Capacities Index below 20 in 2022. Policy is anchored by Malawi 2063 and MIP-1 (2021–2030), which target manufacturing at about 20% of GDP, supported by the Special Economic Zones Act (2024), the Investment and Export Promotion Act (2024) and National Export Strategy II (2021–2026).

The endowment in depth

Malawi's mineral and metal endowment is significant but almost entirely pre- or early-production, with mining contributing under ~1% of GDP. The anchor is the Kasiya deposit on the Lilongwe Plain, held by Sovereign Metals with Rio Tinto holding ~19.76%: a Mineral Resource Estimate of 1.8 billion tonnes at 1.01% rutile and 1.32% graphite, containing ~17.9 Mt of rutile (the world's largest known natural rutile resource, more than double Sierra Rutile's ~8.1 Mt) and ~24 Mt of graphite (the world's second-largest flake graphite deposit). The Definitive Feasibility Study released on 16 April 2026 set capex at US$727M to first production, a pre-tax NPV8 of US$2.2B, a 23% IRR, EBITDA of ~US$476M/yr and planned steady-state output of 222 ktpa rutile plus 275 ktpa graphite — roughly 24% of global natural rutile supply — but the project remains post-DFS, pre-FID and not yet operational. Uranium at Kayelekera (Lotus Resources 85% / Government of Malawi 15%) officially reopened on 14 August 2025, with first yellowcake drummed that month on ~US$50M restart capex, targeting 200,000 lb/month (2.4 Mlb/yr) of U₃O₈ by Q1 2026 against a life-of-mine target of ~19.3 Mlb over ~10 years; the mine historically produced ~11 Mlb between 2009 and 2014, when Malawi briefly accounted for nearly 2% of world uranium mine production. Rare earths at Songwe Hill (Mkango Resources) reached DFS in July 2022 and were designated an EU Strategic Project in June 2025, planning ~5,954 tpa TREO over an 18-year life at ~US$277M capex, with Kangankunde targeting first production in Q4 2026; niobium at Kanyika (Globe Metals & Mining) holds ~60 Mt at ~0.3% Nb₂O₅. Gemstones (Chimwadzulu ruby/sapphire, plus amethyst, aquamarine, garnet and tourmaline near Mzimba) remain small and largely raw/artisanal, and domestic processing across all critical-mineral projects is essentially absent — every scheme plans to export concentrate or intermediate product.

Energy is a binding constraint on any beneficiation ambition. Total installed generation capacity stood at 554.24 MW in January 2025, of which 101 MW (18.2%) is solar and ~400 MW is hydro concentrated on the Shire River. State generator EGENCO operates ~444.67 MW (390.15 MW hydro, 53.22 MW thermal, 1.3 MW solar) across Nkula, Tedzani, Kapichira and Wovwe, with grid solar at Salima and Golomoti added via IPPs. Reliability is poor: chronic load-shedding, hydro vulnerability to Shire River droughts and cyclone damage (Tedzani III and Nkula B units offline through 2025), per-capita electricity consumption of only ~93 kWh/yr against a ~432 kWh Sub-Saharan African average, and national electrification of ~10–15%. The pipeline is material — Mpatamanga (~358 MW, an IFC/EDF/Scatec PPP) would roughly double capacity, and a Malawi–Mozambique interconnector (~120 MW) is nearing completion. On logistics, Malawi is landlocked and entirely dependent on transit corridors, with a World Bank LPI of ~2.59 (2018) — the highest among the SADC landlocked countries studied but weak in absolute terms — served by the Nacala (deepwater Mozambican port and the preferred route for Kasiya), Beira and Dar es Salaam corridors, on limited, bulk-oriented rail.

Agriculture is the economic core, employing ~80% of the workforce and generating ~90% of merchandise export earnings. Tobacco alone is ~46% of merchandise exports (~USD 447–449M in 2023); Malawi was the world's 8th-largest producer in 2022 (~103.8 kt, ~1.8% of world output, down 40% from 172.9 kt in 2010) and is the world's leading burley producer, though almost all leaf is exported unmanufactured (HS 2401) through two dominant leaf merchants, Alliance One and Limbe Leaf (Universal), with minimal cigarette manufacturing. Tea runs ~45–46 kt/yr, making Malawi Africa's second/third-largest producer across ~21 factories, more than 90% estate-grown around Mulanje and Thyolo, predominantly low-margin CTC black blending tea worth ~USD 72M (2023). Sugar is produced solely by Illovo Sugar (Malawi) plc from the Nchalo and Dwangwa estates and a Limbe refinery, at ~203,786 t in FY2025 (down from a 2021 peak of ~297 kt), fully beneficiated into raw, brown, refined, specialty and vitamin-A-fortified lines, though FY2025 export volume collapsed to 12,229 t as domestic shortages triggered export-permit restrictions, and the business secured an IFC US$81M facility for capital projects. Groundnuts, dried legumes and pulses, soya beans and macadamia (Malawi is ~7th globally at ~3% share, but ~95% leaves as nut-in-shell to South Africa) round out the cash-crop base. The Lake Malawi capture fishery yields over 100,000 t/yr supporting ~1.6M livelihoods but with chambo stocks collapsed since the 1980s, while aquaculture is nascent (Maldeco; Chambo Fisheries biofloc near Blantyre; Lake Malawi Aquaculture at Senga Bay scaling from ~500 t toward 4,000 t) and forestry is under severe deforestation pressure from tobacco curing and charcoal.

The existing industrial base is shallow. Manufacturing is ~12.3% of GDP (2023), medium- and high-tech industry was ~11.34% of MVA (2019, UNIDO CIP database), and MVA per capita is among the world's lowest. Activity is concentrated in agro-processing and import substitution — sugar milling and refining (Illovo), tea factories, grain and oilseed processing, beverages, soap and cement — atop a largely collapsed textile chain in which Mapeto David Whitehead & Sons (Blantyre), the only integrated spinner, uses under ~5% of domestically produced lint. Special Economic Zones designated under the 2024 SEZ Act — Area 55 (Lilongwe, 417 ha), Matindi (Blantyre, 130 ha), Dunduzu (Mzuzu, 72 ha) and Chigumula (Blantyre, 22.7 ha, ~60% complete, agro-processing focus) — remain mostly early-stage. Human capital is a large, young, low-cost rural labour force (median age ~18, garment-sector wages historically USD 12–34/month) with a thin TVET base; skill clusters exist in estate agronomy for tea, tobacco and sugar, in basic agro-processing, and in a nascent mining-services pool near Lilongwe, with Kasiya only ~40 km from the capital, while tea research capacity sits at the Tea Research Foundation of Central Africa in Mulanje. Skilled technical and managerial capacity is scarce and tertiary attainment is low.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Malawi sits near the bottom of global complexity rankings. Its Economic Complexity Index is deeply negative — historically −0.769 (rank 91st, OEC 2017 data) and around −0.51 (Harvard Atlas, 2021 data) — while UNCTAD's Productive Capacities Index scores Malawi below 20 (2022), among the lowest globally alongside Chad and Niger. The export basket is dominated by low-complexity primary agricultural goods, and the products with revealed comparative advantage above 1 are concentrated in raw tobacco (RCA ~803), groundnuts (~392), tea (~207), tobacco-processing machines (~182, a re-export/niche statistical artefact) and dried legumes (~76).

The Atlas product space offers only modest, primary-adjacent diversification — manganese ore, other ores, insect resins and cocoa beans — underscoring a shallow capability base with few nearby, more-complex products to move into. The forensic implication for an allocation matrix is that genuine upgrading cannot be expected to emerge organically from existing capabilities; it must be engineered through deliberate investment in minerals beneficiation and oilseed/sugar downstreaming. Confidence on the precise live ECI/PCI values is only moderate, as the current interactive-database figures could not be machine-extracted, so the reported range from −0.769/rank 91 (2017) to −0.51 (2021) and the "below 20" PCI should be read as indicative of position rather than as exact scores.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Malawi's single strongest defensible continental supply position is titanium feedstock (natural rutile), backed by co-product flake graphite, from the Kasiya deposit — the world's largest known natural rutile resource. The evidence on resource dominance is unambiguous: an MRE of 1.8 billion tonnes at 1.01% rutile contains ~17.9 Mt of rutile, more than double the next-largest deposit (Sierra Rutile, ~8.1 Mt), and it is the first rutile-dominant discovery in over 70 years at a time when incumbent sources such as Sierra Rutile and Kwale are depleting into what the audit terms "extreme structural deficit." The April 2026 DFS confirms planned steady-state output of 222 ktpa rutile and 275 ktpa graphite — roughly a quarter of global natural rutile supply — at US$727M capex to first production, a pre-tax NPV8 of US$2.2B and ~US$476M/yr EBITDA. The soft, free-dig saprolite orebody permits simple, low-cost, low-carbon dry/hydro mining with no blasting, an existing rail route to deepwater Nacala, and Rio Tinto as a ~19.76% strategic shareholder.

The forensic caveat is decisive for an allocation matrix: Kasiya is post-DFS but pre-FID and not yet operational, and titanium pigment and graphite demand is global rather than intra-African today. This is therefore a structural, not a current, trump card — a continental anchor in waiting whose AfCFTA relevance depends on building downstream graphite (battery-anode) capacity rather than exporting concentrate. Its honest limits are that no output yet exists, financing close and the mining licence remain outstanding, and its near-term value would flow to global feedstock markets rather than substituting for intra-African supply; the operational, fully-beneficiated and regionally-traded runner-up, refined cane sugar from Illovo, remains the genuine present-day continental anchor while Kasiya matures.

Current reality

Malawi is a small, landlocked, agrarian low-income economy with GDP of USD 11,008,925,323 in current terms for 2024 — a 13.4% fall from USD 12,712M in 2023 — a population of about 21.1 million growing at roughly 2.6% a year, and per-capita GDP of USD 508.37 in 2024, down from USD 602.34 in 2023. The headline supply position is that Malawi today is overwhelmingly a raw and lightly-processed primary exporter sitting at the bottom of the beneficiation ladder. Merchandise exports were about USD 880M in 2023: tobacco at roughly 46%, oilseeds about USD 102M, edible vegetables and pulses about USD 100M, tea, coffee and spices about USD 72M, prepared animal fodder about USD 53M, sugar about USD 43M and nuts about USD 20M. Principal destinations in 2023 were Belgium at about 15.9%, Tanzania 10.8%, China 5.6%, South Africa 5.4%, Zimbabwe 5.3% and Zambia 4.7% — intra-African trade is meaningful in regional terms, with Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Kenya absorbing a substantial minority of exports in pulses, oilseeds, sugar and fodder, while the highest-value line, tobacco, flows to Europe.

The genuine near-term continental supply strength is narrow and agro-processing-based: refined sugar, processed black tea, pulses and legumes, and oilseeds. The transformative potential in rutile, graphite, rare earths and uranium is real but largely pre-operational and globally rather than intra-Africanly oriented. Delivery is constrained by chronic power shortages and load-shedding, hydro vulnerability to Shire River droughts and cyclone damage with Tedzani III and Nkula B units offline through 2025, FX scarcity with a parallel-market premium above 140% in 2024, debt distress since 2022, and CPI inflation of 32.18% in 2024. Even the sugar position is volume-constrained: production has fallen from a 2021 peak of about 297 kt, and export volume in the 2025 financial year fell to 12,229 tonnes as domestic shortages prompted export-permit restrictions.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 19 candidate lines · will change

Malawi’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Malawi’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Malawi will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Malawi’s 19 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 4Emerging 7Aspirational 4Grey 3

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Cane sugar (raw/refined/specialty)

Sole integrated producer (Illovo); irrigated low-cost cane · Maturity: Fully refined + specialty · Competitiveness: High

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

USD 8.84 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

170111Raw cane sugar (excluding added flavouring or colouring)

170112Sugars; beet sugar, raw, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter

170113Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouri

170114Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing add

170191Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added flavouring or colouring matter

170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter

Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 997.1 mNigeria USD 981.1 mAlgeria USD 931.8 mSudan USD 796.2 mEgypt USD 728.9 mDjibouti USD 424.9 mSomalia USD 393.7 mKenya USD 391.1 m

Source: Illovo Sugar Malawi FY results; ITC · 2025/2023

Oilseeds & soya

NES priority cluster · Maturity: Bean + partial crushing · Competitiveness: High

EMERGING

USD 2.93 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

120100Soya beans, whether or not broken

120110Soya beans; seed, whether or not broken

120190Soya beans; other than seed, whether or not broken

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.7 bnAlgeria USD 770 mTunisia USD 319.2 mTogo USD 71.1 mMorocco USD 21.6 mZimbabwe USD 13.8 mTanzania USD 11.5 mRwanda USD 4.5 m

Source: ITC; NES II · 2023

Cement/limestone

Domestic resource base · Maturity: Processed (domestic) · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)

252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured

252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured

252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers

252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 47.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: USGS Minerals Yearbook · ongoing

Pulses/dried legumes

RCA>1; strong regional demand · Maturity: Cleaned/dried · Competitiveness: High

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 1.83 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

071310Vegetables, leguminous; peas (pisum sativum), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071320Vegetables, leguminous; chickpeas (garbanzos), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071331Vegetables, leguminous; beans of the species vigna mungo (l.) hepper or vigna radiata (l.) wilczek, shelled, whether or

071332Vegetables, leguminous; small red (adzuki) beans (phaseolus or vigna angularis), shelled, whether or not skinned or spli

071333Vegetables, leguminous; kidney beans, including white pea beans (phaseolus vulgaris), shelled, whether or not skinned or

071334Vegetables, leguminous; bambara beans (Vigna subterranea or Voandzeia subterranea), shelled, whether or not skinned or s

071335Vegetables, leguminous; cow peas (Vigna unguiculata), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071339Vegetables, leguminous; n.e.c. in item no. 0713.3, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071340Vegetables, leguminous; lentils, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071350Vegetables, leguminous; broad beans (vicia faba var. major) and horse beans (vicia faba var. equina, vicia faba var. min

071360Vegetables, leguminous; pigeon peas (Cajanus cajan), shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

071390Vegetables, leguminous; n.e.c. in heading no. 0713, shelled, whether or not skinned or split, dried

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Procuring agency (indicative): OAIC (Algeria) · Food Security · control: monopoly. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Malawi imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 549.1 mAlgeria USD 344 mMorocco USD 180.8 mEthiopia USD 160.6 mSudan USD 108 mDjibouti USD 100.3 mKenya USD 74.4 mSouth Africa USD 38.1 m

Source: OEC/Comtrade · 2023

Prepared animal fodder

Existing export; oilseed linkage · Maturity: Processed · Competitiveness: Moderate-High

EMERGING

USD 1.7 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

230400Oil-cake and other solid residues; whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of soy

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 518.8 mMorocco USD 388 mCote dIvoire USD 104.9 mAlgeria USD 100.1 mSouth Africa USD 74.9 mSenegal USD 68.2 mTunisia USD 54.8 mLibya USD 53.9 m

Source: Comtrade · 2023

Coffee (Arabica)

Smallholder specialty potential · Maturity: Green bean · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 1.13 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090111Coffee; not roasted or decaffeinated

090112Coffee; decaffeinated, not roasted

090121Coffee; roasted, not decaffeinated

090122Coffee; roasted, decaffeinated

090190Coffee; husks and skins, coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 322.4 mEgypt USD 217.4 mSudan USD 151.5 mMorocco USD 148 mSouth Africa USD 99.8 mLibya USD 77.7 mTunisia USD 34.5 mNamibia USD 9.7 m

Source: MITC · 2023

Black tea (CTC)

Africa 2nd/3rd producer; 21 factories · Maturity: Processed made tea (blending grade) · Competitiveness: Moderate-High

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 919 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090210Tea, green; (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg

090220Tea, green; (not fermented), in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg

090230Tea, black; (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content not exceeding 3kg

090240Tea, black; (fermented) and partly fermented tea, in immediate packings of a content exceeding 3kg

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 310.3 mMorocco USD 187.4 mLibya USD 73.5 mAlgeria USD 72.6 mSouth Africa USD 35.1 mSudan USD 33.4 mMali USD 24.2 mMauritania USD 22.4 m

Source: Tea Assoc. Malawi; ITC · 2023

Macadamia nuts

~7th global producer · Maturity: ~95% nut-in-shell · Competitiveness: Low intra-Africa

EMERGING

USD 635 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

080211Nuts, edible; almonds, fresh or dried, in shell

080212Nuts, edible; almonds, fresh or dried, shelled

080221Nuts, edible; hazelnuts or filberts (corylus spp.), fresh or dried, in shell

080222Nuts, edible; hazelnuts or filberts (corylus spp.), fresh or dried, shelled

080231Nuts, edible; walnuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080232Nuts, edible; walnuts, fresh or dried, shelled

080240Fresh or dried chestnuts (Castanea spp.), whether or not shelled or peeled

080241Nuts, edible; chestnuts (Castanea spp.), fresh or dried, in shell

080242Nuts, edible; chestnuts (Castanea spp.), fresh or dried, shelled

080250Fresh or dried pistachios, whether or not shelled or peeled

080251Nuts, edible; pistachios, fresh or dried, in shell

080252Nuts, edible; pistachios, fresh or dried, shelled

080260Macadamia nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled

080261Nuts, edible; macadamia, fresh or dried, in shell

080262Nuts, edible; macadamia, fresh or dried, shelled

080270Nuts, edible; kola nuts (Cola spp.), fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled

080280Nuts, edible; areca nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled

080290Other Fresh/Dried Edible Nuts

080291Nuts, edible; pine nuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080292Nuts, edible; pine nuts, fresh or dried, shelled

080299Nuts, edible; n.e.c. in heading 0801 and 0802, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Malawi imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 207.7 mAlgeria USD 132 mLibya USD 126.1 mEgypt USD 67.3 mSouth Africa USD 42.4 mNigeria USD 34.7 mTunisia USD 5.6 mSomalia USD 4 m

Source: MDPI; ITC · 2021

Unmanufactured burley tobacco

World top-tier burley producer; 8th global 2022 · Maturity: Leaf/threshed · Competitiveness: Low intra-Africa

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 630 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

240110Tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped)

240120Tobacco; partly or wholly stemmed or stripped

240130Tobacco refuse

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Malawi imported USD 40.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 101.4 mCote dIvoire USD 99.5 mSouth Africa USD 81 mEgypt USD 61.3 mTunisia USD 41.9 mZimbabwe USD 40.7 mMalawi your own imports USD 40.5 mMorocco USD 39.3 m

Malawi is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAOSTAT; ITC · 2022/2023

Cotton lint

Farming potential; ginning exists · Maturity: Lint (downstream collapsed) · Competitiveness: Moderate

GREY

USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

520100Cotton; not carded or combed

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: USITC; AICC · ongoing

Groundnuts

RCA ~392; smallholder base · Maturity: Raw/shelled · Competitiveness: High

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 277.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

120210Groundnuts in shell, not roasted or otherwise cooked

120220Shelled groundnuts, whether or not broken (excluding roasted or otherwise cooked)

120230Ground-nuts; seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, whether or not shelled or broken

120241Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, in shell

120242Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, shelled, whether or not broken,

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 132.8 mSouth Africa USD 33.3 mUganda USD 25.6 mRwanda USD 19 mMorocco USD 17 mLibya USD 8.7 mKenya USD 8 mTunisia USD 5.8 m

Source: OEC; ITC · 2022/2023

Farmed tilapia (chambo)

Lake Malawi; aquaculture nascent · Maturity: Whole/fresh (domestic) · Competitiveness: Moderate

GREY

USD 161.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030211Fish; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhyn

030212Fresh or chilled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta,...

030213Fish; fresh or chilled, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tsch

030214Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0

030219Fish; fresh or chilled, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish off

030221Fish; fresh or chilled, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excl

030222Fish; fresh or chilled, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of s

030223Fish; fresh or chilled, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030224Fish; fresh or chilled, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish o

030229Fish; fresh or chilled, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.2, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offa

030231Fish; fresh or chilled, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edibl

030232Fish; fresh or chilled, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal

030233Fish; fresh or chilled, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030234Fish; fresh or chilled, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030235Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030236Fish; fresh or chilled, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030239Fish; fresh or chilled, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030240Fresh or chilled herrings (Clupea harengus, clupea pallasii)

030241Fish; fresh or chilled, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030242Fish; fresh or chilled, anchovies (Engraulis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030243Fish; fresh or chilled, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030244Fish; fresh or chilled, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030245Fish; fresh or chilled, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030246Fresh or chilled cobia "Rachycentron canadum"

030247Fish; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030249Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030250Fresh or chilled cod (gadus morhua, gadus ogac, gadus macrocephalus)

030251Fish; fresh or chilled, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030252Fish; fresh or chilled, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030253Fish; fresh or chilled, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030254Fish; fresh or chilled, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030255Fish; fresh or chilled, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030256Fish; fresh or chilled, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis),excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030259Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030261Fresh or chilled sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.),...

030262Fresh or chilled haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030264Fresh or chilled mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030265Fresh or chilled dogfish and other sharks

030269Fresh or chilled freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack...

030270Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030271Fish; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030272Fish; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030273Fish; fresh or chilled, Carp (as specified by the WCO.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030274Fish; fresh or chilled, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030279Fish; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030281Fish; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030282Fish; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030283Fish; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030284Fish; fresh or chilled, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030285Fish; fresh or chilled, seabream (Sparidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030289Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in heading 0302, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030290Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030291Fish; fresh or chilled, livers, roes and milt

030292Fish; fresh or chilled, shark fins

030299Fish; fresh or chilled, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

Malawi imported USD 1.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 40.6 mSouth Africa USD 32.6 mMorocco USD 27.9 mGhana USD 19.5 mLibya USD 15.2 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mTunisia USD 3.1 mDR Congo USD 2.4 m

Source: FAO; WorldFish · ongoing

Dried vegetables

Existing export line · Maturity: Dried · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 47.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

071220Vegetables; onions, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried

071230Dried mushrooms and truffles, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder, but not further prepared

071231Vegetables; mushrooms of the genus Agaricus, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried

071232Vegetables; wood ears (Auricularia spp), whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried

071233Vegetables; jelly fungi (Tremella spp)), whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried

071234Vegetables; shiitake mushrooms (Lentinus edodes), whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, drie

071239Vegetables; mushrooms and truffles n.e.c. in item 0712.3, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepar

071290Vegetables; mixtures of vegetables n.e.c. in heading no. 0712, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further p

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 23.8 mSenegal USD 4.1 mMorocco USD 3.2 mSierra Leone USD 2.6 mEgypt USD 2 mAlgeria USD 1.9 mNigeria USD 1.7 mLibya USD 1.1 m

Source: Trendeconomy · 2023

Natural rutile

World's largest deposit (Kasiya); ~24% future global supply · Maturity: Pre-production (DFS Apr 2026) · Competitiveness: Low intra-Africa now

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 13.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261400Titanium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 6.6 mEgypt USD 3.2 mMorocco USD 1.1 mAlgeria USD 1 mTunisia USD 0.4 mCameroon USD 0.3 mEthiopia USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 m

Source: Sovereign Metals DFS · 2026

Coloured gemstones (ruby/sapphire)

Chimwadzulu deposits · Maturity: Mostly rough/artisanal · Competitiveness: Low

GREY

USD 11.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710310Stones; precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, unworked or simply sawn or roughly shaped, not strung,

710391Stones; rubies, sapphires and emeralds, worked (other than simply sawn or roughly shaped), not strung, mounted or set

710399Stones; precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, (other than rubies, sapphires and emeralds), worked oth

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 9.5 mMauritius USD 0.9 mMorocco USD 0.4 mEgypt USD 0.3 mTunisia USD 0.3 mZambia USD 0.2 mNamibia USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS Minerals Yearbook · ongoing

Niobium concentrate

Kanyika ~60 Mt resource · Maturity: Pre-production · Competitiveness: Low

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 9.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261510Zirconium ores and concentrates

261590Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 2.3 mZambia USD 1.8 mSouth Africa USD 1.4 mTunisia USD 1.4 mAlgeria USD 1.1 mTanzania USD 1 mZimbabwe USD 0.3 mMorocco USD 0.2 m

Source: USGS/Globe Metals · 2014/ongoing

Rare earth concentrate (TREO)

Songwe Hill DFS; EU strategic project · Maturity: Pre-production · Competitiveness: Low intra-Africa

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 5.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

284610Cerium compounds

284690Compounds, inorganic or organic (excluding cerium), of rare-earth metals, of yttrium, scandium or of mixtures of these m

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 5.5 mEgypt USD 0.1 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: Mkango DFS · 2022

Natural flake graphite

World's 2nd-largest deposit (Kasiya) · Maturity: Pre-production (DFS Apr 2026) · Competitiveness: Emerging (battery/AfCFTA)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 5.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250410Graphite; natural, in powder or in flakes

250490Graphite; natural, in other forms, excluding powder or flakes

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Congo USD 2.6 mSouth Africa USD 0.9 mEgypt USD 0.3 mNiger USD 0.2 mTanzania USD 0.2 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: Sovereign Metals DFS · 2026

Uranium (U3O8)

Kayelekera restarted Aug 2025; 2.4 Mlb/yr target · Maturity: Yellowcake concentrate · Competitiveness: Very low intra-Africa

EMERGING

USD 0 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261210Uranium ores and concentrates

261220Thorium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Malawi imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Source: Lotus Resources/WNN · 2025

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Malawi is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Malawi buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Malawi is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 3.22 bn

Malawi’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Malawi imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Cement/limestone	EMERGING	USD 47.9 m	USD 2.9 bn
Unmanufactured burley tobacco	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 40.5 m	USD 630 m
Farmed tilapia (chambo)	GREY	USD 1.1 m	USD 161.4 m
Coffee (Arabica)	EMERGING	USD 0.6 m	USD 1.13 bn
Black tea (CTC)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.6 m	USD 919 m
Oilseeds & soya	EMERGING	USD 0.3 m	USD 2.93 bn
Pulses/dried legumes	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.2 m	USD 1.83 bn
Macadamia nuts	EMERGING	USD 0.1 m	USD 635 m
Cane sugar (raw/refined/specialty)	CONTINENTAL ANCHOR	USD 0 m	USD 8.84 bn
Prepared animal fodder	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 1.7 bn
Cotton lint	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 392 m
Groundnuts	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 277.3 m
Dried vegetables	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 47.4 m
Natural rutile	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 13.1 m

Left-hand column: what Malawi itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Malawi’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 19 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Malawi’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Malawi. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Malawi’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Malawi’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01EgyptUSD 4.44 bn

02AlgeriaUSD 2.84 bn

03MoroccoUSD 2.23 bn

04NigeriaUSD 1.16 bn

05SudanUSD 1.09 bn

06DjiboutiUSD 525.2 m

07LibyaUSD 522.6 m

08South AfricaUSD 487 m

09Cote dIvoireUSD 477.4 m

10KenyaUSD 473.6 m

11TunisiaUSD 469.6 m

12SomaliaUSD 397.7 m

13GhanaUSD 339.9 m

14MaliUSD 326.9 m

15Burkina FasoUSD 205.1 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Malawi. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Malawi would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Malawi to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Kasiya reaches FID, financing and licensing

The rutile/graphite project must reach FID and financing close on ~US$727M capex, secure its mining licence and ESIA, lock ESCOM/IPP power of ~56–60 MW, and confirm Nacala rail capacity and offtakes across pigment, welding, titanium-metal and battery-anode markets.

Downstream graphite capacity, not concentrate export

Capturing AfCFTA battery demand requires building in-country graphite and spherical-purified-graphite capacity rather than exporting raw concentrate, which is what would convert the deposit from a global to a genuinely continental asset.

Reliable, expanded industrial power

Mpatamanga (~358 MW) and the Malawi–Mozambique interconnector must be commissioned and firm solar-plus-storage added, since the hydro-dominated 554.24 MW base cannot underpin any energy-intensive beneficiation.

Refined sugar made reliable as the present-day anchor

Cane yields must be stabilised against climate shocks through irrigation and drainage at Dwangwa and Nchalo, the domestic-shortage versus export-permit tension resolved so regional supply is dependable, and specialty and fortified lines expanded.

Agro-processing moves up the value ladder

Tea must shift from blending-grade CTC to value-added, branded, orthodox and specialty product, with parallel investment in oilseed crushing, pulse cleaning and grading, and fodder to capture regional food and feed deficits.

Macro stability and enabling infrastructure restored

Debt restructuring and FX liberalisation must restore macro stability, the SEZs (Chigumula, Area 55, Matindi) must be operationalised, LPI and corridor gaps closed, and TVET pipelines for mining and processing built.

The binding constraints

Landlocked transit and logistics dependency Every export bears corridor cost and time penalties; reliance on the Nacala and Beira corridors through Mozambique and Dar es Salaam through Tanzania exposes Malawi to third-country infrastructure, security (Cabo Delgado proximity) and policy risk. Weak rail, road and cold-chain, an LPI of ~2.59 (2018) and persistent border delays compound the penalty, making transit the single largest structural vulnerability on each shipment.

Power reliability Installed capacity of 554.24 MW is hydro-dominated and exposed to drought and cyclone damage, and chronic load-shedding makes energy-intensive beneficiation such as smelting, refining and pigment production currently infeasible without dedicated generation.

Capital and FX scarcity Debt distress since 2022, FX scarcity (a parallel-market premium above 140% in 2024) and inflation of 32.18% (2024) leave limited domestic capital for capex-heavy projects such as Kasiya (~US$727M), Mpatamanga and Songwe (~US$277M).

Thin skills base TVET provision and the technical and managerial base are thin, constraining any move into mining and processing that depends on skilled labour.

Governance and policy stability Reform reversals, election-cycle volatility and regulatory uncertainty persist, and mining-fiscal terms are still maturing, raising execution risk for long-lived investments.

Sectoral fragility Tobacco demand is in structural decline under FCTC and ESG pressure, sugar output is weather-volatile, and gemstone and critical-mineral sectors are exposed to commodity-price and offtake risk.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Malawi’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Landlocked transit dependency is the single largest structural vulnerability. Every export bears corridor cost and time penalties, and reliance on Nacala and Beira in Mozambique and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania exposes Malawi to third-country infrastructure, security including Cabo Delgado proximity, and policy risk. Rail is limited and coal- or bulk-oriented, and road quality and border delays raise costs further.

Power reliability forecloses beneficiation. Installed capacity of 554.24 MW is hydro-dominated and drought- and cyclone-exposed, with chronic load-shedding. The audit judges energy-intensive beneficiation such as smelting, refining and pigment production currently infeasible without dedicated generation, and calls energy a binding constraint on any beneficiation ambition.

Capital and foreign exchange are the gating condition on every large project. Debt distress has persisted since 2022, the parallel-market FX premium widened above 140% in 2024, inflation reached 32.18% in 2024, and domestic capital for capex-heavy projects is limited — Kasiya at about US$727M, Songwe Hill at about USD 277M, and Mpatamanga.

Kasiya must clear a long list of conditions before it supplies anything. The audit requires FID and financing close on about US$727M of capex, a mining licence and ESIA, locked ESCOM or IPP power of roughly 56–60 MW, confirmed Nacala rail capacity, and secured offtakes across pigment, welding, titanium-metal and battery-anode markets.

The present-day continental anchor is volume-constrained and weather-exposed. Sugar production has fallen from a 2021 peak of about 297 kt to about 203,786 tonnes in the financial year ending August 2025, and export volume fell to 12,229 tonnes as domestic shortages prompted export-permit restrictions. The audit requires the domestic-shortage and export-permit tension to be resolved before regional supply can be called reliable.

The capability base is shallow and does not upgrade organically. ECI is deeply negative and the UNCTAD Productive Capacities Index sits below 20, among the lowest globally. Atlas relatedness opportunities are primary-adjacent — manganese ore, other ores, insect resins, cocoa beans — implying that genuine upgrading must be engineered through deliberate investment rather than expected to emerge from existing capabilities.

Skills and governance both lag the ambition. The TVET base is thin and technical and managerial capacity is scarce, with literacy and tertiary attainment low. Reform reversals, election-cycle volatility, regulatory uncertainty and still-maturing mining-fiscal terms compound the risk, alongside sectoral fragility in declining tobacco demand and commodity-price and offtake exposure in critical minerals.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Malawi's Draft 1 bundle rests on two distinct things that must not be conflated. The operational layer is agricultural and already trades regionally — fully beneficiated cane sugar from a single integrated producer, processed CTC black tea, pulses and dried legumes, groundnuts, oilseeds and prepared animal fodder — and this is where near-term continental supply is genuine, if volume-constrained. The structural layer is mineral and pre-operational: rutile and graphite at Kasiya, rare earths at Songwe Hill and Kangankunde, niobium at Kanyika, none of which has reached FID or first production, and uranium at Kayelekera, which has restarted but serves global rather than continental demand. What must be proven is therefore sequenced: Kasiya reaching FID and financing close with secured power, rail and offtakes; Mpatamanga at about 358 MW and the Mozambique interconnector commissioning to lift the binding energy constraint; sustained sugar output recovery above about 250 kt with a reliable export surplus; and movement from blending-grade CTC tea and raw oilseed towards value-added, orthodox and specialty lines, oilseed crushing and pulse cleaning and grading. The audit's own benchmark is unambiguous — an in-country graphite-anode or titanium-pigment plant would constitute a genuine continental-complexity leap; until then, all forward production volumes are targets, not installed capacity.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Malawi is shown 19 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Malawi to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Malawi stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Malawi?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Malawi’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Malawi?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.