Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
MauritiusBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Mauritius — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
13
Draft 1 candidate lines for Mauritius
The Minister’s brief · for Navin Ramgoolam · Mauritius
Prime Minister Ramgoolam, you do not come to Abidjan with minerals in the ground; you come with something rarer — the finished good. Mauritius is Africa's largest preserved-tuna producer, 52,000 tonnes in 2024, and holds the largest canning and loining capacity in the Western Indian Ocean, roughly 105,000 tonnes a year behind EU-standard HACCP processing, an integrated cold chain and the transhipment berths of Port Louis. That is a revealed comparative advantage of 132 — no African neighbour can copy it. Africa buys back US$1.2 billion of canned fish each year — Libya, Egypt and Algeria the largest importers; your claim on it is not the raw catch but the can itself. The Right of Supply gives Mauritius a twenty-five-year first right to fill that shelf, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract — only a supplier bound to stay the best. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. Your hand on it, your correction, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Mauritius
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Navin Ramgoolam, Prime Minister

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Mauritius · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Prime Minister Ramgoolam,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Mauritius — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Mauritius is in this room

Mauritius comes to this table as a processor rather than a producer of raw material. Its strongest endowment is the tuna and seafood complex: a large EEZ and access to the Western Indian Ocean industrial tuna fishery, landed and transhipped through Port Louis, feeding roughly 105,000 tonnes a year of canning and loining capacity, the largest in the Western Indian Ocean, and making Mauritius Africa's largest preserved-tuna producer by volume at 52,000 tonnes in 2024, with EU-standard HACCP processing and an integrated cold chain behind it. The honest constraint sits on the input side and on power. Raw material is supplied largely by foreign-flagged fleets under fishing agreements, ownership is concentrated in a few foreign-linked groups, and the country imported 90.9 per cent of its primary energy requirement in 2024, so the cost and security of industrial power bound how far any processing commitment can be scaled.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Mauritius, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Mauritius

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
13draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Mauritius’s draft bundle. 13 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Canned/processed tuna & seafood. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 3 strong contender · 7 emerging · 1 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Mauritius is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 13 candidate lines proposed for Mauritius below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Mauritius. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Mauritius will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Mauritius will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
13 lines
Mauritius’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Mauritius at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Mauritius’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Mauritius’s own capability audit.

Nitrogenous fertilizers

The audit records US$115 million of 2023 fertilizer "exports" as largely trader routing through Meridian and ETG entities, with the beneficiation stage flagged as uncertain and likely re-export or blending rather than domestic production. It is classified ASPIRATIONAL/GREY and the audit states plainly that such flows must not be counted as genuine supply capacity.

Re-export routing

Cut and polished diamonds and jewellery

There is no domestic diamond mining; the US$185 million of 2023 "diamond" exports are cut, polished or re-exported stones worked from imported rough. The audit treats the category as substantially re-export with low domestic value-added, so a finished good sits on no domestic raw base.

Capability inversion

Metals and industrial minerals

Mauritius is essentially devoid of metallic and industrial-mineral endowment, with no significant reserves or production and no domestic smelting or refining. The audit marks the whole class GREY/INSUFFICIENT and notes that minerals are confidently grey because there is genuinely little to assess.

Raw base · industrial screen

Basalt aggregate and construction stone

This is the only domestic mineral and it remains raw, with continental demand assessed as marginal because it is bulk material and island logistics are adverse. The audit assigns it GREY.

Raw base · industrial screen

Energy-intensive and heavy manufacturing

The audit states that energy is a binding constraint on heavy and energy-intensive manufacturing, with 90.9 per cent primary-energy import dependence in 2024, relatively costly power and a 2025 capacity squeeze that forced emergency stop-gap measures. It also warns against confusing large solar and biomass targets on paper with modest installed renewable capacity.

Scale-matching

Live biomedical primates, vanilla and spices

Live animals carry the highest revealed comparative advantage at 478 but are not a manufactured good and attract marginal continental demand; vanilla and spices show a high RCA of 61.3 on small volume with marginal or niche demand. Neither converts into a continental supply position.

Scale-matching
08 · Endowment
What Mauritius actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Mauritius. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Mauritius holds almost no mineral or energy endowment. The island is volcanic basalt, with no significant metal reserves or production, no domestic smelting or refining, and only basalt and aggregate quarrying and coral and lime for construction. There are no oil or gas reserves and no refinery. Mauritius imported 90.9 per cent of its primary energy requirement in 2024, of which petroleum products were 61.1 per cent and coal 29.8 per cent. Installed generation capacity was about 955 MW in 2023 against peak demand of about 508 MW, and electricity generation reached 3,417.6 GWh in 2024, of which 81.8 per cent was non-renewable and 18.2 per cent renewable. The renewable share rests mainly on bagasse, the residue of sugar cane, which supplied 9.1 per cent of generation in 2022, together with solar photovoltaics, hydro of about 56.5 MW installed, wind and landfill gas. The government targets 60 per cent renewable electricity by 2030 with a coal phase-out.

The productive endowment is agricultural and marine rather than mineral. Sugar cane occupies roughly 90 per cent of cultivated land. Sugar production was 238,854 tonnes in 2023 against a long-run average of 537,155 tonnes and an all-time high of 706,839 tonnes in 1986, a structural decline of roughly two-thirds from peak. The sector has pivoted to about 70 per cent refined white sugar, EEC Grade 2, and about 30 per cent unrefined special sugars across fifteen varieties, with roughly 90 per cent of output exported. Fisheries are the standout: the EEZ and access to the Western Indian Ocean industrial tuna fishery feed a major canning and loining complex, and Mauritius was Africa's single largest preserved-tuna producer by volume at 52,000 tonnes in 2024. Forestry and timber are negligible, and the country is a net food importer while remaining self-sufficient in some fresh vegetables, poultry and eggs.

The manufacturing base is light, named and clustered. Textiles and clothing accounted for 25.42 per cent of manufacturing value added in 2022, while the export-oriented enterprises' share of manufacturing gross value added fell from 53 per cent in the 1980s to about 30 per cent in 2023. In seafood, Princes Tuna (Mauritius) holds annual raw-material processing capacity of about 50,000 tonnes and Thon des Mascareignes about 55,000 tonnes, capable of some 200 tonnes per day; with two further minus 40 and minus 60 degree units, Mauritius held about 105,000 tonnes a year of processing, the largest in the Western Indian Ocean. Supporting firms include the IBL conglomerate, Froid des Mascareignes, Indico Canning, Marine Biotechnology Products in fishmeal, and the Chantier Naval de l'Océan Indien shipyard, with Mitsubishi and Echebastar as foreign anchors. Sugar runs through three enlarged mills, Altéo, Terra and Omnicane, with the Mauritius Sugar Syndicate as sole marketing arm. Seven medical-device manufacturers employed about 800 people in 2022, among them Natec Medical, AVA Medical and Envaste, producing catheters, stents and implants; six distilleries produce rum and cane spirits. On economic complexity, Mauritius is the most, or close second-most, complex economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, statistically near-tied with South Africa, with a Harvard Atlas ECI improving from approximately minus 0.46 in 2000 to about 0.09 in 2022 and a global rank moving from 90th to 58th of 133 countries.

The endowment in depth

Mauritius carries almost no mineral or energy endowment, and the honest reading of its balance sheet begins there. The island is volcanic basalt and is essentially devoid of metallic and industrial-mineral resource: there are no significant metal reserves or production, no domestic smelting or refining, and the only domestic mineral activity is basalt and aggregate quarrying plus coral and lime for construction. The apparent "diamond" exports of US$185 million in 2023 (OEC) are cut, polished or re-exported stones worked from imported rough — there is no domestic diamond mining. Energy is the tighter constraint. Mauritius has no oil or gas reserves and no refinery, and imported 90.9% of its primary energy requirement in 2024 (petroleum products 61.1%, coal 29.8%, per US ITA citing Statistics Mauritius). Installed generation capacity is roughly 955 MW (2023, Statistics Mauritius/CEB) against peak demand of about 508 MW; generation reached 3,417.6 GWh in 2024, of which 81.8% was non-renewable and 18.2% renewable, the latter mostly bagasse (9.1% of generation in 2022), solar PV, hydro (about 56.5 MW installed), wind and landfill gas. Government targets 60% renewable electricity by 2030 with a coal phase-out, but the Central Electricity Board reported losses exceeding Rs 4.8 billion (about US$320 million) in 2023 on volatile fuel costs, and a 2025 capacity squeeze forced emergency stop-gap measures. Power is import-dependent, relatively costly and a binding limit on any energy-intensive manufacturing.

The genuine endowment is agricultural and marine. Sugarcane dominates the land, occupying roughly 90% of cultivated area, but the sector has contracted sharply: sugar production was 238,854 tonnes in 2023 against a long-run average of 537,155 tonnes and an all-time high of 706,839 tonnes in 1986 — a structural fall of about two-thirds from peak. The cluster has pivoted to roughly 70% refined white sugar (EEC Grade 2) and about 30% unrefined special sugars across 15 varieties, with around 90% of output exported. Fisheries are the standout: the maritime economic zone and access to the Western Indian Ocean industrial tuna fishery feed a major canning and loining complex, and Mauritius was Africa's single largest preserved-tuna producer by volume at 52,000 tonnes in 2024 (IndexBox). Forestry and timber are negligible. The island is a net food importer but is self-sufficient in some fresh vegetables, poultry and eggs (Mauritius Chamber of Agriculture).

The existing industrial base is the most sophisticated in Sub-Saharan Africa despite the absence of raw materials. Textiles and clothing accounted for 25.42% of manufacturing value added in 2022 (World Bank), though the export-oriented enterprises' share of manufacturing GVA has fallen from 53% in the 1980s to about 30% in 2023. In seafood, Princes Tuna (Mauritius) runs annual raw-material processing capacity of about 50,000 tonnes and Thon des Mascareignes about 55,000 tonnes (capable of roughly 200 MT/day); with two additional −40°C/−60°C units, Mauritius held about 105,000 tonnes per year of processing, the largest in the Western Indian Ocean (IDDRI, 2018). Supporting firms include the IBL conglomerate, Froid des Mascareignes, Indico Canning, Marine Biotechnology Products (fishmeal) and the Chantier Naval de l'Océan Indien shipyard, with foreign anchors Mitsubishi (Princes) and Echebastar (Spain). Sugar runs through three enlarged mills — Altéo, Terra and Omnicane — with the Mauritius Sugar Syndicate as sole marketing arm. Medical devices comprise seven manufacturers (2022) employing about 800 people, led by Natec Medical (angioplasty/PTCA catheters, claiming the Indian Ocean's largest cleanroom), AVA Medical and Envaste, producing catheters, stents and implants. Six rum distilleries operate — Grays (New Grove; capacity 7 million litres of pure alcohol per year), Medine (Penny Blue, Pink Pigeon/Diageo), Chamarel, St Aubin, Labourdonnais and Oxenham — alongside a diamond-cutting trade running since 1970 (LSP/Mauriden, Adamas) and a large legacy knitwear and T-shirt base in the former Export Processing Zone.

Human capital and logistics complete the picture. The labour force is roughly 0.6 million; the sectoral minimum wage was MUR 17,110 per month in 2025 (Statistics Mauritius) and the average monthly wage about US$846 in 2023, with unemployment down to about 5.6% in 2025. Skill clusters exist in financial services, ICT/BPO, textiles, seafood processing and hospitality, but rising labour costs are eroding low-cost apparel competitiveness versus Bangladesh, Vietnam and Ethiopia (Fibre2Fashion, 2023). Infrastructure is a real asset: Port Louis handles about 99.5% of external trade, with container throughput of roughly 400,000 TEU against about 1 million TEU capacity following the 2017 terminal extension (16.5 m draft) — one of the deepest ports in the South-West Indian Ocean. The Mauritius Freeport is a re-export and transhipment platform with EU-standard cold-chain fish-handling facilities. Island geography means all heavy inputs are imported and all outputs must be shipped, which favours high-value, low-bulk goods and penalises bulk commodities while positioning the island to serve landlocked African markets.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Mauritius is the most, or a close second-most, economically complex economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, statistically near-tied with South Africa. The Harvard Atlas Economic Complexity Index improved from approximately −0.46 in 2000 to about 0.09 in 2022, lifting its global rank from 90th to 58th of 133 countries (BIZWEEK citing the Atlas of Economic Complexity). A separate Harvard-sourced compilation records the ECI at −0.17 in 2021 with a four-position rank gain over five years and a Complexity Outlook Index of about 0.25 (2021); the absolute values differ by edition and data-cleaning method, so the level should be read as indicative while the "most-complex-in-SSA" standing is firm. The most-specialised products by revealed comparative advantage (OEC, 2023) are "Other Animals" at 478 (live primates for biomedical research), non-retail carded wool yarn at 211, processed fish at 132, other clocks and watches at 77.3, and vanilla at 61.3.

The relatedness read points to adjacent, not transformative, opportunities. Atlas relatedness-based diversification openings (OEC, 2023) cluster around existing seafood and apparel capabilities — crustaceans, knit men's undergarments, packing bags, cassava and bananas. Despite a relatively high ECI for its region, the export basket remains dominated by low-complexity products (textiles, apparel and fish preparations), which limits near-term upward mobility: complexity gains would have to come from moving up within the seafood, sugar and garment value chains rather than from a leap into an unrelated high-complexity sector.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Mauritius's single most defensible continental supply position is canned and processed tuna and seafood (HS16/HS1604), and it earns that status by being the only category that scores YES across all five lens criteria at once. On the input base, a large EEZ plus access to the Western Indian Ocean industrial tuna fishery is landed and transhipped through Port Louis, and Mauritius was Africa's largest preserved-tuna producer by volume at 52,000 tonnes in 2024 (IndexBox). On processing, this is finished-goods manufacturing rather than raw export: Princes Tuna (Mauritius) at about 50,000 tonnes of capacity and Thon des Mascareignes at about 55,000 tonnes (roughly 200 MT/day) together gave Mauritius about 105,000 tonnes per year of processing, the largest in the Western Indian Ocean (IDDRI, 2018), with by-product fishmeal and fish-oil lines. On competitiveness, processed fish carries an RCA of 132 (OEC, 2023) and canned tuna was the leading single export at about US$247 million in 2024 — the second-largest African exporter by value after Seychelles (US$278 million) and ahead of Ghana (US$148 million) (IndexBox, 2024). Deliverability rests on EU-standard HACCP processing, an integrated cold chain and a deep transhipment port, and the continental demand is real: the African preserved-tuna market was worth US$1.2 billion in 2024, with importers including Libya (US$194 million), Egypt (US$132 million) and Algeria (US$61 million), plus South Africa, Somalia and Ethiopia.

The honest limits are equally clear and a minister should weigh them. The raw-material base depends on foreign-flagged fleets and fishing agreements rather than domestically controlled supply; ownership is concentrated in a few foreign-linked groups (Mitsubishi/Princes, Echebastar); the sector has historically depended on European markets and is exposed to tariff-preference shifts and to Thai and Ecuadorian competition; over-fishing and Indian Ocean Tuna Commission quota risk sit over the resource; and per-capita demand is thin outside North Africa. The position is defensible because it is finished-goods manufacturing built on genuine processing scale, sanitary standards and port logistics rather than on a raw endowment — but its durability turns on securing raw-material supply and diversifying markets beyond Europe and North Africa.

Current reality

Mauritius is a small upper-middle-income island economy with a population of 1,265,303 in 2023, GDP of about US$15.5 billion on a 2025 estimate and GDP per capita of about US$12,487. It is mineral-poor and fossil-fuel-free, yet operates the most sophisticated services and light-manufacturing base in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its defining endowments are not raw materials but a large EEZ with access to the Western Indian Ocean industrial tuna fishery feeding the region's largest tuna-processing complex, a 200-year cane-sugar cluster pivoted to refined and special sugars, and a diversified light-manufacturing and financial-services platform spanning textiles, medical devices and freeport re-export. The headline supply position is therefore that Mauritius is a credible continental supplier of processed, not raw, goods.

Total merchandise exports were about US$1.75 billion in 2024. Fish and seafood preparations, principally canned tuna, were the leading single category at roughly 14.8 per cent of total exports; white, refined and cane sugar combined exceeded US$220 million; apparel, diamonds and precious stones, and nitrogenous fertilizers follow. Export destinations between 2020 and 2024 were South Africa at 14 per cent, the United Kingdom at 12 per cent, the United States at 10 per cent, France at 10 per cent and Madagascar at 8 per cent, and exports to Africa rebounded 17 per cent to Rs 19.5 billion in 2024, flowing roughly 99 per cent through SADC and COMESA members. Port Louis handles about 99.5 per cent of external trade, with container throughput of about 400,000 TEU against roughly 1 million TEU of capacity following the 2017 terminal extension and a 16.5 metre draft, making it one of the deepest ports in the south-west Indian Ocean. The labour force is about 0.6 million, unemployment fell to about 5.6 per cent in 2025, and the sectoral minimum wage stood at MUR 17,110 a month in 2025 against an average monthly wage of about US$846 in 2023.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 13 candidate lines · will change

Mauritius’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Mauritius’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Mauritius will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Mauritius’s 13 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 3Emerging 7Aspirational 1Grey 1
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined & special cane sugar

200-yr cluster; 70% refined/30% special; MSS coordination · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Large (Africa ~15M t / US$10.1bn imports 2024)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 8.84 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170111Raw cane sugar (excluding added flavouring or colouring)
170112Sugars; beet sugar, raw, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170113Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouri
170114Sugars; cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing add
170191Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added flavouring or colouring matter
170199Sugars; sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 75.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 997.1 mNigeria USD 981.1 mAlgeria USD 931.8 mSudan USD 796.2 mEgypt USD 728.9 mDjibouti USD 424.9 mSomalia USD 393.7 mKenya USD 391.1 m

Source: Statistics Mauritius; EEAS; IndexBox · 2023/2024

Nitrogenous fertilizers (blending)

US$115M exports largely trader routing · Maturity: Uncertain (re-export/blending) · Competitiveness: Large (Africa imports >80%)
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 3.8 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
310210Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution
310221Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, ammonium sulphate
310229Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, other than ammonium sulphate
310230Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution
310240Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic non-fertilizing substances,
310250Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, sodium nitrate
310260Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, double salts and mixtures of calcium nitrate and ammonium nitrate
310270Calcium cyanamide (excluding that in pellet or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...
310280Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution
310290Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, other kinds including mixtures not specified in the foregoing subheadings
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): ETBC (Ethiopia), SFFRFM (Malawi) · Input Subsidy Programs · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Mauritius imported USD 6.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ethiopia USD 495.4 mSouth Africa USD 470.4 mZambia USD 456 mZimbabwe USD 239.8 mTanzania USD 235.6 mMorocco USD 200.8 mMalawi USD 194 mNigeria USD 143.3 m

Source: OEC; IGC · 2023

Medical devices (catheters/stents/implants)

7 manufacturers, ~800 staff; high-tech cleanrooms · Maturity: Finished high-complexity · Competitiveness: Large global; thin African today
EMERGING
USD 2.83 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
901811Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; electro-cardiographs
901812Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; ultrasonic scanning apparatus
901813Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; magnetic resonance imaging apparatus
901814Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; scintigraphic apparatus
901819Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; electro-diagnostic apparatus (including apparatus for functional explorato
901820Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; ultra-violet or infra-red ray apparatus
901831Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; syringes, with or without needles
901832Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; tubular metal needles and needles for sutures
901839Medical, surgical instruments and appliances; catheters, cannulae and the like
901841Dental instruments and appliances; dental drill engines, whether or not combined on a single base with other dental equi
901849Dental instruments and appliances; other than dental drill engines
901850Ophthalmic instruments and appliances
901890Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances; n.e.c. in heading no. 9018
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Procuring agency (indicative): Ministry of Health · Hospital Equipment · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Mauritius imported USD 40.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 681.5 mEgypt USD 301.2 mAlgeria USD 238.4 mMorocco USD 235 mTunisia USD 145.4 mAngola USD 125.4 mLibya USD 91.5 mEthiopia USD 86 m

Source: trade.gov; Natec/AVA · 2022/2024

Cut/polished diamonds & jewellery

Cutting since 1970; Adamas/Mauriden · Maturity: Finished from imported rough (re-export) · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 912 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
711311Jewellery; of silver, whether or not plated or clad with other precious metal, and parts thereof
711319Jewellery; of precious metal (excluding silver) whether or not plated or clad with precious metal, and parts thereof
711320Jewellery; of base metal clad with precious metal, and parts thereof
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Mauritius imported USD 11.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 416.9 mSudan USD 132.1 mSomalia USD 87.2 mChad USD 79.5 mAlgeria USD 57.1 mMorocco USD 46.1 mSouth Africa USD 39.8 mMauritius your own imports USD 11.5 m

Mauritius is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: OEC; Adamas · 2023/2024

Rum & cane spirits

6 distilleries; exports >2x since 2010 · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Niche/moderate
EMERGING
USD 907.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
220820Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc
220830Whiskies
220840Rum and other spirits obtained by distilling fermented sugar-cane products
220850Gin and geneva
220860Vodka
220870Liqueurs and cordials
220890Spirits, liqueurs and other spirituous beverages; n.e.c. in heading no. 2208
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 24 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 338.8 mMorocco USD 66.2 mGhana USD 52.4 mNigeria USD 52 mKenya USD 45.4 mNamibia USD 42.5 mEgypt USD 29 mMauritius your own imports USD 24 m

Mauritius is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Rhum Attitude; New Grove · 2024

Canned/processed tuna & seafood

Africa's largest preserved-tuna producer (52,000 t); largest WIO processing capacity ~105,000 t/yr; RCA 132; #2 African exporter by value · Maturity: Finished (canned/pouch/loins) · Competitiveness: Large (US$1.2bn African market 2024; Libya/Egypt/Algeria importers)
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince
160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc
160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604
160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved
160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs
160431Fish preparations; caviar
160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 20.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: IDDRI; OEC; IndexBox · 2018/2023/2024

Woven apparel (suits/trousers)

Established cut-make base; AGOA · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate/large
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 827.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
620311Suits; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620312Suits; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620319Suits; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.1 (not knitted or crocheted)
620321Men's or boys' ensembles of wool or fine animal hair (excluding knitted or crocheted, ski ensembles...
620322Ensembles; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620323Ensembles; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620329Ensembles; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.2 (not knitted or crocheted)
620331Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620332Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620333Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620339Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.3 (not knitted or crocheted)
620341Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or croch
620342Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620343Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620349Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of textile materials (other than wool, fine animal hair, cotton or synthetic fibres), (not knitted or crocheted)
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 8.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 332.3 mAlgeria USD 72.2 mLibya USD 57.2 mEthiopia USD 43.4 mMorocco USD 37.9 mGhana USD 31.5 mSudan USD 26 mGuinea USD 25.6 m

Source: OEC; trade.gov · 2023/2024

Knitted apparel & T-shirts

Legacy EPZ; fully-fashioned knitwear; AGOA/EU access · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Large/growing
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 748 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
610910T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of cotton, knitted or crocheted
610990T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crocheted
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 8.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 231.5 mMorocco USD 57.3 mSouth Sudan USD 46 mLibya USD 45 mAlgeria USD 41.7 mEgypt USD 38 mGuinea USD 34.7 mGhana USD 29.3 m

Source: World Bank; Fibre2Fashion · 2022/2023

Live animals (biomedical primates)

Highest RCA (478); niche · Maturity: Live · Competitiveness: Marginal
EMERGING
USD 144.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
010600Live animals (excluding horses, asses, mules, hinnies, bovine animals, swine, sheep, goats,...
010611Mammals; live, primates
010612Mammals; live, whales, dolphins and porpoises (mammals of the order Cetacea); manatees and dugongs (mammals of the order
010613Mammals; live, camels and other camelids (Camelidae)
010614Mammals; live, rabbits and hares
010619Mammals; live, other than primates, whales, dolphins, porpoises (mammals of the order Cetacea); manatees, dugongs (mamma
010620Reptiles; live (including snakes and turtles)
010631Birds; live, birds of prey
010632Birds; live, Psittaciformes
010633Birds; live, ostriches; emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae)
010639Birds; live, other than birds of prey, Psittaciformes, ostriches and emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae)
010641Insects; live, bees
010649Insects; live, other than bees
010690Animals; live, n.e.c. in chapter 01, other than mammals, reptiles, birds and insects
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Mauritius imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 121 mMorocco USD 9.1 mEthiopia USD 4.7 mLibya USD 2.2 mSouth Africa USD 2 mMozambique USD 0.8 mKenya USD 0.7 mAngola USD 0.7 m

Source: OEC · 2023

Fishmeal & fish oil

Cannery by-products · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 113.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
230110Flours, meals and pellets; of meat or meat offal, greaves
230120Flours, meals and pellets; of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 39.3 mNigeria USD 30.6 mZambia USD 11.3 mTunisia USD 7.3 mZimbabwe USD 6.8 mMozambique USD 6.3 mEgypt USD 4.4 mGhana USD 3.1 m

Source: Seafood Hub · 2023

Basalt aggregate/construction stone

Only domestic mineral; island logistics adverse · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Marginal
GREY
USD 51.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251710Pebbles, gravel, broken or crushed stone; of a kind commonly used for concrete aggregates, for road metalling or for rai
251720Macadam of slag, dross or similar industrial waste; whether or not incorporating the materials in Tariff item 2517.10.00
251730Tarred macadam
251741Stones; of marble, in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
251749Stones; of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 2.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 15.6 mCameroon USD 5.1 mTunisia USD 4.8 mMorocco USD 4.4 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mEgypt USD 2.2 mMauritius your own imports USD 2.1 mAngola USD 1.8 m

Mauritius is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: — · —

Molasses & cane derivatives

By-product of cane cluster · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 34.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
170310Sugars; molasses, from sugar cane, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar
170390Sugars; molasses, from sugar beet, resulting from the extraction or refining of sugar
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 10.6 mUganda USD 4.5 mTunisia USD 4 mMorocco USD 3.7 mSouth Africa USD 3 mMalawi USD 1.6 mNamibia USD 1.4 mBotswana USD 1.3 m

Source: Mauritius Chamber of Agriculture · 2023

Vanilla & spices

High RCA (61.3); small volume · Maturity: Semi-processed · Competitiveness: Marginal/niche
EMERGING
USD 22 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090500Vanilla
090510Spices; vanilla, neither crushed nor ground
090520Spices; vanilla, crushed or ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritius imported USD 17.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius your own imports USD 17.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.2 mMadagascar USD 0.9 mTunisia USD 0.9 mUganda USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.3 mSudan USD 0.2 mNigeria USD 0.2 m

Mauritius is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: OEC · 2023

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Mauritius is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Mauritius buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Mauritius is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 6.30 bn

Mauritius’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

13

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierMauritius imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Refined & special cane sugarSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 75.6 mUSD 8.84 bn
Medical devices (catheters/stents/implants)EMERGINGUSD 40.3 mUSD 2.83 bn
Rum & cane spiritsEMERGINGUSD 24 mUSD 907.2 m
Canned/processed tuna & seafoodCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 20.4 mUSD 850.3 m
Vanilla & spicesEMERGINGUSD 17.2 mUSD 22 m
Cut/polished diamonds & jewelleryEMERGINGUSD 11.5 mUSD 912 m
Woven apparel (suits/trousers)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 8.9 mUSD 827.3 m
Knitted apparel & T-shirtsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 8.4 mUSD 748 m
Nitrogenous fertilizers (blending)ASPIRATIONALUSD 6.9 mUSD 3.8 bn
Basalt aggregate/construction stoneGREYUSD 2.1 mUSD 51.2 m
Live animals (biomedical primates)EMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 144.9 m
Fishmeal & fish oilEMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 113.9 m
Molasses & cane derivativesEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 34.8 m

Left-hand column: what Mauritius itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Mauritius’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 13 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Mauritius’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Mauritius. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Mauritius’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Mauritius’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 2.24 bn
02MoroccoUSD 1.7 bn
03AlgeriaUSD 1.42 bn
04EgyptUSD 1.32 bn
05NigeriaUSD 1.21 bn
06SudanUSD 954.5 m
07LibyaUSD 827.2 m
08EthiopiaUSD 629.5 m
09SomaliaUSD 512.3 m
10ZambiaUSD 467.3 m
11KenyaUSD 437.2 m
12DjiboutiUSD 424.9 m
13ZimbabweUSD 246.6 m
14TanzaniaUSD 235.6 m
15MalawiUSD 195.6 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Mauritius. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Mauritius would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Mauritius to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Secure raw-material supply for seafood

Mauritius would need own or jointly-controlled fleets, durable Indian Ocean Tuna Commission quotas and regional sourcing so the cannery complex is not hostage to foreign-flagged fleets and fishing agreements.

02

African market registration and halal certification

It would have to win African sanitary-registration and halal certification for North African markets, build African distribution, and offer can and pouch formats suited to continental tastes while defending against Thai and Ecuadorian price competition.

03

Arrest the cane-output decline

Reversing the structural fall in cane production through yields, mechanisation and land retention is required to free up export volume, after which special and refined sugars can be marketed into East and Southern African deficit markets via COMESA and SADC preferences.

04

Move apparel up the value chain

The garment base would need to shift into higher-value technical and eco-textiles, automate to offset rising wages, and use AfCFTA rules of origin to anchor regional supply chains rather than compete on low-cost labour.

05

Lower industrial power cost and raise renewables

Reducing industrial power cost and raising the renewable share is a cross-cutting precondition to de-risk processing across all export sectors.

06

Redirect capital toward export manufacturing

FDI and incentives would have to be redirected from real estate toward export manufacturing, and the Freeport used as an African distribution hub rather than a pure re-export node.

The binding constraints
·

Energy import dependence and cost Mauritius imported 90.9% of its primary energy in 2024, power is relatively costly, a 2025 capacity squeeze forced emergency stop-gap measures, and the Central Electricity Board recorded losses exceeding Rs 4.8 billion in 2023. This caps energy-intensive manufacturing directly.

·

Small scale and imported feedstock A 1.27-million-person island imports nearly all of its feedstock — fish from foreign fleets, fertilizer constituents, textile fabric and sugar-refining inputs — and its domestic raw scale is small relative to continental demand. Cane output is also structurally declining, and tuna is supplied largely by foreign-flagged fleets under fishing agreements.

·

Owner and buyer concentration The seafood sector is dominated by a few foreign-linked groups, notably Mitsubishi/Princes and Echebastar, and export markets have historically been European. This concentrates both ownership and demand risk in the single strongest capability.

·

Adverse island logistics Island geography penalises bulk and low-value goods, and serving landlocked African markets adds cost and lead time. The logistics advantage holds only for high-value, low-bulk output.

·

Capital allocation to real estate FDI skews to real estate — roughly half of inflows in 2023 — diverting capital away from productive manufacturing and starving the export-oriented sectors that carry the country's genuine comparative advantage.

·

Re-export illusion in the headline data Diamonds and nitrogenous-fertilizer 'exports' are substantially re-export and trader-routing rather than domestic value-added, and must not be counted as genuine supply capacity. Rising labour costs compound the pressure by eroding apparel cost-competitiveness.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Mauritius’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Energy import dependence caps the processing base. Mauritius imported 90.9 per cent of its primary energy requirement in 2024, power is costly, a 2025 capacity squeeze occurred and the Central Electricity Board reported losses exceeding Rs 4.8 billion, or about US$320 million, in 2023. Lowering industrial power cost and raising the renewable share are prerequisites for de-risking processing.

05

Domestic scale is small relative to continental demand. A 1.27-million-person island imports nearly all feedstock, including fish from foreign fleets, fertilizer constituents, textile fabric and sugar-refining inputs. Domestic raw scale is small against the volumes African markets require.

06

Feedstock is structurally exposed on both anchors. Cane output is in structural decline, at 238,854 tonnes in 2023 against 706,839 tonnes in 1986, which caps sugar export volumes. Tuna raw material is supplied largely by foreign-flagged fleets under fishing agreements, so securing own or jointly controlled fleets and durable IOTC quotas would have to be true.

07

Ownership and market concentration is narrow. Seafood is dominated by a few foreign-linked groups, including Mitsubishi through Princes and Echebastar, and export markets are historically European. Building African distribution, winning African sanitary registration and halal certification for North African markets, and defending against Thai and Ecuadorian price competition remain unproven.

08

Island logistics penalise bulk and landlocked delivery. All heavy inputs must be imported and all output shipped, which favours high-value, low-bulk goods and penalises bulk commodities. Serving landlocked African markets adds cost and lead time.

09

Rising labour costs are eroding apparel competitiveness. Wages are rising against Bangladesh, Vietnam and Ethiopia, and the apparel base also depends on imported fabric. Holding the position would require moving into higher-value technical and eco-textiles, automating to offset wages, and using AfCFTA rules of origin to anchor regional supply chains.

10

Capital is flowing away from productive manufacturing. Foreign direct investment skews to real estate, which took about half of inflows in 2023, diverting capital from productive manufacturing. Redirecting FDI and incentives towards export manufacturing, and using the Freeport as an African distribution hub rather than a pure re-export node, would have to follow.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Mauritius's Draft 1 bundle rests on finished goods, not endowment. The anchor is canned and processed tuna and seafood; refined and special cane sugar and knitted apparel stand behind it as genuine but narrower positions, the first capped by a two-thirds fall in cane output since 1986 and the second eroding on rising labour costs and imported-fabric dependence. What must be proven is threefold: that raw-material supply can be secured through own or jointly controlled fleets, durable IOTC quotas and regional sourcing; that cane decline can be arrested through yields, mechanisation and land retention to free export volume; and that industrial power cost can be lowered and the renewable share raised so that processing is not hostage to imported fuel. Equally, what is excluded must stay excluded: fertilizer and diamond flows are substantially re-export and trader routing rather than domestic value-added, and the audit is explicit that they must not be counted as supply capacity.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Mauritius is shown 13 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Mauritius to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2