Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
MauritaniaBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Mauritania — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
17
Draft 1 candidate lines for Mauritania
The Minister’s brief · for Codioro Moussa N'Guenore · Mauritania
Minister N'Guenore, Mauritania's strongest hand is not buried but afloat: sovereign waters of some 234,000 square kilometres in the Canary Current upwelling, sustaining roughly 1.8 million tonnes of catch a year, already worked in the freezing plants and fishmeal factories of Nouadhibou. No African peer holds both the shoal and the proven capacity to process it, and fish already earn close to a fifth of your export receipts. Africa spends more than USD 83 billion a year buying food from beyond its own shores, its protein from strangers, while your sardinella feed Europe and Asia — this endowment is your claim on that outflow. The Right of Supply gives Mauritania a 25-year first right to supply the continent, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract: meet the market, or release the tonnes. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional — the figures are ours to defend, and your correction is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Mauritania
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Codioro Moussa N'Guenore, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Mauritania · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister N'Guenore,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Mauritania — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Mauritania is in this room

Mauritania's strongest endowment is its sea. An maritime economic zone of some 234,000 square kilometres in the Canary Current upwelling supports a total sustainable catch estimated at roughly 1.8 million tonnes a year, with a 2023 catch of 845,000 tonnes, and it is the one category in which the country holds both global-scale endowment and demonstrated processing capability in the freezing plants and fishmeal factories of Nouadhibou. Fish already account for close to 20 per cent of merchandise export earnings. The honest constraint is direction and infrastructure rather than resource: approximately 95 per cent of the catch is currently exported to Europe and Asia, sardinella stocks are assessed as fully to over-exploited, and national electricity access of 50.3 per cent on roughly 490 MW of largely thermal capacity gates the cold chain on which any reorientation toward African markets depends.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Mauritania, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Mauritania

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
17draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Mauritania’s draft bundle. 17 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Iron ore. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 5 strong contender · 5 emerging · 6 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Mauritania is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 17 candidate lines proposed for Mauritania below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Mauritania. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Mauritania will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Mauritania will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
17 lines
Mauritania’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Mauritania at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Mauritania’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Mauritania’s own capability audit.

Iron ore as an intra-African supply line

Mauritania is Africa's second-ranked iron ore exporter by value and produces 14 to 15 million tonnes a year, but no pelletising plant operates and output is raw ore, sinter fines and concentrate only. Intra-African demand is low because Africa has little steelmaking, so the audit classes iron ore as a global anchor that is structurally weak for continental supply.

Raw base · industrial screen

Gold as a continental supply category

Tasiast produces more than 620,000 ounces a year, but output is doré only with no onshore refining, and destinations are Canada, Switzerland and the UAE. The audit records it as a global strong contender with low continental demand.

Capability inversion

LNG volumes available to African buyers

GTA Phase 1 is fully export-committed under the BP offtake, so little gas stays onshore in the near term, and intra-African demand is low because there are few African LNG importers. Phase 2, which is intended to add a stronger domestic-gas component, is not yet delivered.

Incumbency

Copper concentrate

Guelb Moghrein is a late-life mine, with content falling from 29,600 tonnes of copper in 2019 to about 18,000 tonnes in 2024 and a projection of roughly 7,000 tonnes by 2026. Output is concentrate with no smelting, and continental demand is low.

Raw base · industrial screen

Cement and clinker

Grinding capacity of about 545,000 tonnes exists, but clinker is largely imported, so the finished-good step is not held domestically. The audit classes the category as emerging to aspirational pending clinker production being stood up.

Capability inversion

Salt, phosphate and green hydrogen

Salt output is minimal and not iodised or food-grade at scale, the Bofal-Loubboira phosphate reserves of roughly 140 to 160 million tonnes are undeveloped, and the Aman and Nour green-hydrogen projects remain early-stage with nothing operating. All three are recorded as aspirational, not present capability.

Scale-matching
08 · Endowment
What Mauritania actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Mauritania. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Mauritania's endowment is concentrated in three places: the seabed, the iron ranges of the north, and the desert itself. The maritime economic zone of roughly 234,000 square kilometres sits within the Canary Current upwelling, over a continental shelf of some 39,000 square kilometres along 754 kilometres of coast, and is among the richest fishing zones anywhere. Total sustainable catch from Mauritanian waters is estimated at approximately 1.8 million tonnes a year, around 80 per cent of it small pelagics (GIZ, 2023), with a 2023 catch of 845,000 tonnes recorded by FAO and IRENA. National fish production has risen from about 90,000 tonnes in 2009 toward 773,000 tonnes. Artisanal octopus landings were about 25,000 tonnes in 2022, with roughly 40,000 tonnes of total octopus exports that year (SMCP); West Africa, taking Morocco and Mauritania together, accounted for about 24 per cent of global octopus landings in 2020 (FAO). A large fishmeal and fish oil industry of some 40 plants operates alongside the freezing and processing capacity at Nouadhibou.

On land, SNIM, which is 78.35 per cent state-owned, produced 14.1 million tonnes of usable iron ore in 2023 and an estimated 15.0 million tonnes in 2024 (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025), making Mauritania Africa's second-ranked iron ore exporter by value in 2019. SNIM markets lump ore, sinter fines and concentrates of up to 68.5 per cent iron at the Guelb 2 plant, moved on the roughly 700-kilometre Zouerate to Nouadhibou railway using trains of up to 220 to 230 cars. Tasiast, wholly owned by Kinross, produced a record 620,793 ounces of gold in 2023 and 622,394 gold-equivalent ounces in 2024, and paid the Mauritanian government USD 195.9 million in FY2024, taking cumulative payments since 2010 beyond USD 1.44 billion. First gas flowed from the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project on 31 December 2024, with Phase 1 expected to produce around 2.3 million tonnes of LNG per annum against a floating LNG nameplate of approximately 2.7 mtpa. Herds run to roughly 2.3 million cattle and 14.6 million sheep, with red meat at about 34 per cent of agricultural GDP and near-total domestic red-meat self-sufficiency.

The complexity picture is unambiguous and constrains what any of this can be turned into today. Mauritania ranks 132nd most complex in the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity, is described there as less complex than expected for its income level, and is projected to grow at about 2.3 per cent annually to 2033. Products with revealed comparative advantage above one are iron ore, gold, molluscs and cephalopods, processed crustaceans, frozen fish, copper ore, fish oil and fishmeal and animal-feed preparations, all of them raw or lightly processed primaries. Even the highest-complexity current exports carry negative product complexity indices, from animal-feed preparations at minus 0.14 through to animal and vegetable fertilisers at minus 0.85. The feasible diversification set on the relatedness index, cocoa beans, manganese ore, tropical fruits, crude petroleum and cement, is itself low-complexity, reflecting limited adjacent knowhow. Mauritania sits in the lower-middle industrialisation category and below the continental average on the AfDB Africa industrialisation index for 2024.

The endowment in depth

Mauritania's mineral and metal base is broad but almost entirely unbeneficiated. Iron ore is the flagship: state-controlled SNIM (78.35% state-owned) produced a record 14.01 Mt in 2023 (14.1 Mt usable ore per USGS, rising to a 15.0 Mt estimate for 2024), making Mauritania the world's 12th- and Africa's 2nd-ranked iron ore exporter by value (2019). The national resource estimate is ~1.5 Gt, though USGS lists formal reserves as NA. SNIM markets lump ore, sinter fines and concentrates up to 68.5% Fe at the Guelb 2 plant, but no pelletising plant operates — the decisive value-chain gap. Gold is the second pillar: Tasiast (Kinross, 100%) produced a record 620,793 oz in 2023 and 622,394 gold-equivalent oz in 2024, as doré only with no onshore refining; artisanal output adds ~3 t. Tasiast paid the government USD 195.9 million in FY2024, taking cumulative payments since 2010 beyond USD 1.44 billion. Copper is a late-life asset — Guelb Moghrein (Mauritanian Copper Mines/First Quantum) at Akjoujt fell from 29,600 t of contained copper (2019) toward ~18,000 t (2024) and a projected ~7,000 t by 2026, exported as concentrate mostly to China. Undeveloped or sub-scale endowments include gypsum (SAMIA at Sebkha N'dramcha, ~250,000 t against a ~6 Gt resource), phosphate (Bofal-Loubboira, ~140–160 Mt at 19–21% P₂O₅, undeveloped), salt (SOMISEL, ~1,000 t, not iodised or food-grade at scale) and uranium (the Tiris project by Aura Energy, final permit July 2024, first production possibly ~2028).

The energy endowment has just been transformed by first gas. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project (BP 56%, Kosmos 27%, Petrosen 10%, SMH 7%) achieved first gas on 31 December 2024, first LNG in February 2025 and first cargo in April 2025. Phase 1 is expected to produce around 2.3 mtpa of LNG from a floating LNG vessel of ~2.7 mtpa nameplate, drawing on gas in water depths up to 2,850 m via an FPSO designed to process over 500 mmscf/day; the reservoir holds ~425 bcm (~15 Tcf) recoverable, with the BirAllah field (~80 Tcf) undeveloped. Phase 1 is fully export-committed under BP offtake, so little gas stays onshore near-term; Phase 2 targets ~5 mtpa with a stronger domestic-gas component. Oil is marginal (Chinguetti depleted, ~20 million barrels proven, >4,000 bbl/d), and the SOMIR refinery at Nouadhibou (~10,000–20,000 bbl/d nameplate) now functions largely as a fuel-import quality-control body, with refined products (~1.2 Mt/yr) fully imported. Power is a hard constraint: ~490 MW installed (2023), with SOMELEC net production of 956,940 MWh split thermal 55.49%, OMVS hydro 27.34%, wind 12.63% and solar 4.39%, and national electricity access of only 50.3% (urban 84.3%, rural 3.8%). The 220 MW Ewa Green hybrid solar-wind plant (60 MW firm) is due September 2026, and world-class Saharan solar/wind underpins the early-stage Aman green-hydrogen project (USD 40 billion; targeting 1.7 Mt H₂ and 10 Mt green ammonia annually).

Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are dominated by one of the world's richest fishing zones. The EEZ (~234,000 km²) and ~39,000 km² continental shelf sit against a 754 km coast in the Canary Current upwelling, yielding a total sustainable catch estimated at ~1.8 Mt/yr (~80% small pelagics, GIZ 2023); national fish production rose from ~90,000 t (2009) toward 773,000 t, with a 2023 catch of 845,000 t (FAO/IRENA). The sector's economic weight is reported with wide variance — KfW and Euronews cite "about 10% of GDP" and roughly 300,000 people, while IRENA (2025) gives a narrower 2.8% of GDP (2023), 66,000 direct plus ~300,000 indirect jobs, and 19.9% of export earnings. The EU Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement (2021–2026) provides €60.8 million per year for access of up to 280,050 tonnes/year. Cephalopods are premium: ~25,000 t of artisanal octopus and ~40,000 t of total octopus exports (2022, SMCP), with West Africa accounting for ~24% of global octopus landings (2020), though "Japan quality" product flows to Europe and Asia rather than Africa. A large fishmeal/fish oil industry (~40 plants, main markets China and France) is now being regulated down because it destroys food-security value. Livestock is substantial — ~2.3 million cattle and ~14.6 million sheep plus goats and camels, red meat at ~34% of agricultural GDP with near-100% red-meat self-sufficiency, a Tiviski camel-milk dairy, and an underused Kaédi export abattoir — but cropping is minimal (arable land ~0.4–0.5% of area, ~1% of wheat demand met domestically, ~70% of food needs imported).

The existing industrial base is thin and the human-capital and logistics foundations are weak. Mauritania falls into the lower-middle industrialisation category and sits below the continental average on the AfDB/Africa industrialisation index (2024), with very low MVA per capita; actual manufacturing comprises SNIM ore crushing/screening/magnetic concentration (beneficiation, not pelletising), cement grinding (Ciment de Mauritanie, BSA and others; ~545,000 t capacity with clinker largely imported), fish freezing/processing and fishmeal in Nouadhibou, small steel (SAFA) and gypsum/plaster. The Nouadhibou Free Zone (established 2013, 500 ha) offers tax and customs incentives for fish processing, logistics and oil and gas, but realised industrialisation is limited. Human capital is a binding weakness: on the World Bank Human Capital Index a child reaches only ~38% of potential productivity, learning-adjusted schooling is ~4.2 years, child stunting is 25%, and the TVET base and skilled-labour pool are thin — though an Arabic-speaking workforce (plus French, Pulaar, Soninke and Wolof) is an advantage for Maghreb trade. Infrastructure is dominated by the single-purpose ~700 km SNIM railway (Zouerate–Nouadhibou, trains of up to 220–230 cars), supported by an AfDB USD 150m loan (2024) within a USD 467m programme to double transport capacity by 2030; the Port of Nouadhibou's Point Central mineral terminal handles ~11 Mt iron ore/yr and, after 2022 dredging, accommodates 230,000 t vessels (up from 150,000 t), while the Port of Nouakchott (PANPA) handles general cargo. Atlantic coastal access is a structural export advantage, but road integration with Senegal (Rosso), Mali and Morocco (the Nouadhibou–Dakhla axis) remains limited.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Mauritania sits near the bottom of the global complexity ladder. It ranks 132nd most complex in the Harvard Growth Lab's Atlas of Economic Complexity, is assessed as "less complex than expected for its income level", and is projected to grow only ~2.3% annually to 2033; OEC records a multi-decade relative-complexity decline toward the 119th–132nd range depending on classification, confirming the hypothesis of very low complexity. The products in which Mauritania holds a revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) — iron ore, gold, molluscs and cephalopods, processed crustaceans, frozen fish, copper ore, fish oil, and fishmeal/animal-feed preparations — are overwhelmingly raw or lightly processed primaries.

Even the country's most complex exports carry negative product-complexity scores: animal-feed preparations (−0.14), iron oxides (−0.57), plastic scrap (−0.74), fishing nets/cordage (−0.84) and animal/vegetable fertilizers (−0.85). The Atlas relatedness index points to feasible diversification only into other low-complexity lines — Cocoa Beans (0.053), Manganese Ore (0.048), Tropical Fruits (0.047), Crude Petroleum (0.047) and Cement (0.044) — reflecting limited adjacent knowhow. This places Mauritania in the product space where growth depends on scaling and lightly upgrading existing primary strengths rather than leaping into sophisticated new sectors.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Mauritania's single defensible continental trump card is fish — frozen whole fish, processed crustaceans, cephalopods and, transitionally, fishmeal and fish oil (HS 0303/0306/0307, plus fishmeal HS 2301). The evidentiary basis is strong and multi-sourced. The EEZ (~234,000 km²) sits in the Canary Current upwelling, yielding a total sustainable catch of ~1.8 Mt/yr, ~80% small pelagics (GIZ 2023), with a 2023 catch of 845,000 t (IRENA/FAO). Fish already constitute roughly 20% of merchandise export earnings (IRENA 2023: 19.9%) and a major share of fiscal revenue, and the EU values continued access at €60.8 million per year. Crucially, this is the one category where Mauritania has both genuine global-scale endowment and demonstrated processing capability — freezing plants and fishmeal factories in Nouadhibou — and where continental demand is acute: West and Central Africa face a structural fish-protein deficit, and per UNECA (Andrew Mold, 2025) Africa spent more than $83 billion importing foodstuffs from outside the continent in 2023. Affordable fish protein aligns precisely with an AfCFTA food-security supply mandate.

The trump card is real but contingent, and its limits are honest. First, there is an ecological ceiling: round and flat sardinella are assessed as fully-to-over-exploited (FAO/IMROP), capping any volume expansion. Second, ~95% of the catch is currently exported to the EU and Asia, so redirecting it toward African markets requires deliberate policy plus cold-chain investment. Third, the fishmeal industry diverts edible fish from human consumption, which the Ministry of Fisheries is now moving to regulate down. Fourth, cold-chain, traceability and port competitiveness are weak, with landing in Nouadhibou costlier than in the nearby Canary Islands. The card therefore depends on reorientation toward African demand rather than on raw endowment alone — but among all of Mauritania's assets, it is the one that combines scale, existing processing and an aligned continental need.

Current reality

Mauritania is a desert, resource-export economy of approximately 5.5 million people with nominal GDP in the order of USD 11 to 12 billion, resting on three pillars: iron ore through the state-owned SNIM, gold through Kinross at Tasiast, and one of the world's richest fishing zones. The extractive sector accounted for 76.28 per cent of total exports and 18.91 per cent of GDP in 2023 (EITI). Real GDP grew 6.3 per cent in 2024 before moderating to 4.2 per cent in 2025 as gas-construction activity wound down. The country is overwhelmingly a raw-commodity exporter with negligible domestic beneficiation. Actual manufacturing comprises ore crushing, screening and magnetic concentration at SNIM, cement grinding of roughly 545,000 tonnes capacity with clinker largely imported, fish freezing, processing and fishmeal at Nouadhibou, a small steel operation at SAFA, and gypsum and plaster. The Nouadhibou Free Zone, established in 2013 across 500 hectares with tax and customs incentives, has delivered limited realised industrialisation to date.

The constraint set is hard and physical. National electricity access stands at 50.3 per cent, 84.3 per cent urban against 3.8 per cent rural, on roughly 490 MW of installed capacity that remains thermal-dependent and unreliable, which gates both manufacturing and cold chain. Logistics rest on a single-purpose mineral railway, ports with low competitiveness and high landing costs, and limited road integration with neighbours. The banking sector is thin with high non-performing loans, foreign direct investment is concentrated in extractives, and the country carries a moderate risk of debt distress. Human capital is weak: the World Bank Human Capital Index implies a child reaches only about 38 per cent of potential productivity, learning-adjusted schooling is around 4.2 years, child stunting is 25 per cent, and the technical and vocational base is thin. Direction of trade compounds the problem. In 2023 exports went principally to Canada at 24.4 per cent, China at 22.7 per cent, Algeria at 8.2 per cent, Switzerland at 7.4 per cent, Spain at 6.2 per cent and the UAE at 5.6 per cent, and roughly 95 per cent of the fish catch is exported off-continent. Mauritania's largest endowments currently flow almost entirely out of Africa.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 17 candidate lines · will change

Mauritania’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Mauritania’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Mauritania will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Mauritania’s 17 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 5Emerging 5Aspirational 6
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

LNG

GTA 425 bcm; first gas Dec 2024 · Maturity: Liquefied · Competitiveness: Low intra-African
EMERGING
USD 10.27 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271111Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, natural gas
271112Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, propane
271113Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, butanes
271114Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene
271119Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711
271121Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas
271129Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, other than natural gas
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): State utilities · Energy Security · control: controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Mauritania imported USD 61.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 3.38 bnMorocco USD 2.36 bnTunisia USD 1.66 bnSouth Africa USD 779.1 mCote dIvoire USD 413.8 mKenya USD 240.9 mTanzania USD 205.1 mGhana USD 181.6 m

Source: BP/Kosmos · 2024-2025

Frozen non-fillet fish

World-class EEZ/Canary upwelling; processing exists · Maturity: Frozen/headed · Competitiveness: High (W/C Africa protein deficit)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 4.03 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .
030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an
030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo
030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e
030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae
030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh
030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...
030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)
030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03
030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304
030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings
030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t
030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"
030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"
030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9
030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...
030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)
030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks
030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)
030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)
030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...
030380Frozen fish livers and roes
030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030390Frozen fish livers and roes
030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt
030392Fish; frozen, shark fins
030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Cote dIvoire USD 835.8 mNigeria USD 565.2 mEgypt USD 355 mCameroon USD 301 mGhana USD 293.3 mMauritius USD 225.3 mZambia USD 163.8 mSouth Africa USD 139.4 m

Source: FAO; OEC; EITI · 2021-2024

Gold (dore)

Tasiast world-class >620koz · Maturity: Dore; no refining · Competitiveness: Low (extra-African)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: Kinross; Comtrade · 2023-2024

Cement & clinker

Grinding capacity; gypsum feedstock · Maturity: Ground (clinker imported) · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 63.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: USGS YB · 2019

Iron ore

Africa 2nd producer; 14-15 Mt/yr · Maturity: Concentrate; no pellets · Competitiveness: Low intra-African
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS 2025; USGS YB · 2019-2024

Green hydrogen/ammonia

Saharan solar/wind · Maturity: None (early-stage) · Competitiveness: Low-Moderate
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 1.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
281410Ammonia; anhydrous
281420Ammonia; in aqueous solution
285300Inorganic and organic compounds, incl. distilled or conductivity water and water of similar...
285310Inorganic compounds; cyanogen chloride (chlorcyan)
285390Phosphides, chemically defined or not, not ferrophosphorus; other inorganic compounds n.e.c. (including distilled, condu
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Mauritania imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 872.6 mTunisia USD 87.4 mSouth Africa USD 51 mMadagascar USD 25.2 mEgypt USD 20.1 mNamibia USD 4.6 mSenegal USD 4.2 mNigeria USD 2.1 m

Source: AfDB · 2024

Live animals

~14.6m sheep, 2.3m cattle · Maturity: Live · Competitiveness: High regional (Sahel/Maghreb)
EMERGING
USD 1.02 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
010210Pure-bred breeding bovines
010221Cattle; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010229Cattle; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010231Buffalo; live, pure-bred breeding animals
010239Buffalo; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals
010290Bovine animals; live, other than cattle and buffalo
010410Sheep; live
010420Goats; live
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 309.4 mMorocco USD 250.9 mSouth Africa USD 148.1 mAlgeria USD 104.6 mLibya USD 88.7 mMauritius USD 21.5 mGuinea USD 14.2 mCote dIvoire USD 12.8 m

Source: FAO · 2025

Gypsum

~6 Gt resource; coastal access · Maturity: Raw/crushed · Competitiveness: High (construction)
EMERGING
USD 386.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252010Gypsum; anhydrite
252020Plasters; (consisting of calcined gypsum or calcium sulphate), whether or not coloured, with or without small quantities
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 176.6 mGhana USD 32.7 mCote dIvoire USD 18.3 mUganda USD 16.7 mCameroon USD 15.2 mBurkina Faso USD 14.6 mSenegal USD 12.1 mZambia USD 9.3 m

Source: USGS YB · 2019

Copper concentrate

Guelb Moghrein · Maturity: Concentrate; no smelting · Competitiveness: Low
EMERGING
USD 353.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260300Copper ores and concentrates
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Namibia USD 250.5 mZambia USD 103 mSouth Africa USD 0.3 mTanzania USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS YB · 2019

Salt (iodised)

Coastal sebkhas · Maturity: Minimal; not iodised · Competitiveness: High (import category)
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: USGS YB · 2019

Crustaceans (processed)

Rich continental shelf · Maturity: Frozen/processed · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 302.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030611Crustaceans; frozen, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not,
030612Crustaceans; frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell,
030613Frozen shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns in shell, cooked...
030614Crustaceans; frozen, crabs, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steamin
030615Crustaceans; frozen, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smok
030616Crustaceans; frozen, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or
030617Crustaceans; frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before o
030619Crustaceans; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.1, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shel
030621Rock lobster and other sea crawfish "Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp. and Jasus spp.", even smoked,...
030622Lobsters "Homarus spp.", even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried,...
030623Shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, live, dried, salted or in brine, incl. shrimps...
030624Crabs, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted or in brine,...
030626Cold-water shrimps and prawns "Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon", even smoked, whether in shell . . .
030627Shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted...
030629Crustaceans, even smoked, fit for human consumption, whether in shell or not, live, fresh,...
030631Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not
030632Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, lobsters (Homarus spp.), whether in shell or not
030633Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, crabs, whether in shell or not
030634Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not
030635Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not
030636Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, shrimps and prawns excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not
030639Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.3, in shell or not
030691Crustaceans; rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030692Crustaceans; lobsters (Homarus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030693Crustaceans; crabs, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030694Crustaceans; Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030695Crustaceans; shrimps and prawns, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030699Crustaceans; smoked, whole, cooked or not, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.9, in shell or not
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 122.8 mMorocco USD 101.3 mSouth Africa USD 38.5 mMauritius USD 17.1 mSeychelles USD 4.8 mTunisia USD 2.4 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mGhana USD 1.5 m

Source: OEC · 2021

Phosphate/fertilizer

140-160 Mt reserves · Maturity: Undeveloped · Competitiveness: High (AfCFTA fertilizer)
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 249 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251010Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; unground
251020Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; ground
310310Superphosphates (excluding those in tablets or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...
310311Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus pentaoxi
310319Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, other than containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphor
310390Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3103
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Mauritania imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Benin USD 76.3 mBurundi USD 60.6 mCote dIvoire USD 31 mAlgeria USD 21.7 mGhana USD 16.9 mSouth Africa USD 10.2 mNigeria USD 5.9 mSenegal USD 4.8 m

Source: USGS YB · 2019

Cephalopods (octopus)

Premium Octopus vulgaris; ~24% global landings W.Africa · Maturity: Frozen/graded · Competitiveness: Moderate (premium, mostly extra-African)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 168.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030710Oysters, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine
030711Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030712Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, frozen
030719Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, dried, salted or in brine, smoked, cooked or not before or during the smokin
030721Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030722Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, frozen
030729Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smo
030731Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030732Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, frozen
030739Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not
030741Live, fresh or chilled, not smoked, cuttle fish "Sepia officinalis, Rossia macrosoma, Sepiola...
030742Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030743Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, frozen
030749Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030751Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), live, fresh or chilled
030752Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), frozen
030759Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030760Molluscs; snails, other than sea snails, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030771Molluscs; clams, cockles and ark shells (families Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae and Veneridae), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030772Molluscs; clams, cockles, ark shells (Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae and Veneridae), whether in shell or not, frozen
030779Molluscs; clams, cockle, ark shells (families Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae, Veneridae), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, smoked
030781Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030782Molluscs; stromboid conchs (Strombus spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030783Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, frozen
030787Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030788Molluscs; stromboid conchs (Strombus spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030791Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, live or fresh, chilled
030792Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, frozen
030799Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Mauritania imported USD 2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 80.5 mSouth Africa USD 25.6 mEgypt USD 22.6 mNamibia USD 13.2 mMauritius USD 7.6 mNigeria USD 3.2 mSenegal USD 3.1 mMauritania your own imports USD 2 m

Mauritania is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAO Globefish; SMCP · 2020-2022

Red meat

Self-sufficient herd · Maturity: Slaughtered; abattoir-limited · Competitiveness: High regional
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 146.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
020110Meat; of bovine animals, carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020120Meat; of bovine animals, cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020130Meat; of bovine animals, boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
020410Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, fresh or chilled
020421Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), fresh or chilled
020422Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), fresh or chilled
020423Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, fresh or chilled
020430Meat; of sheep, lamb carcasses and half-carcasses, frozen
020441Meat; of sheep, carcasses and half-carcasses (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses of lamb), frozen
020442Meat; of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), frozen
020443Meat; of sheep (including lamb), boneless cuts, frozen
020450Meat; of goats, fresh, chilled or frozen
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius USD 31.3 mEgypt USD 29.1 mAlgeria USD 21.1 mLiberia USD 11.6 mMozambique USD 8.5 mLibya USD 8 mSouth Africa USD 6.4 mSeychelles USD 6 m

Source: FAO · 2025

Fishmeal & fish oil

Abundant small pelagics (sardinella) · Maturity: Processed · Competitiveness: High (aquaculture/feed)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 143 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
150410Oils of fish; fish-liver oils and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
150420Fats and oils and their fractions; of fish, (excluding liver-oils)
150430Fats and oils and their fractions; of marine mammals
230110Flours, meals and pellets; of meat or meat offal, greaves
230120Flours, meals and pellets; of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Mauritania imported USD 0.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 43 mNigeria USD 38.4 mZambia USD 11.3 mMorocco USD 9.3 mEgypt USD 8 mTunisia USD 7.7 mZimbabwe USD 7 mMozambique USD 6.3 m

Source: Mongabay/IMROP; Frontiers · 2023-2024

Iron pellets/DRI/green steel

Magnetite + renewables · Maturity: None (Atomai ~2029) · Competitiveness: Moderate-High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 107.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
720310Ferrous products; obtained by direct reduction of iron ore, in lumps, pellets or similar forms
720390Ferrous products; spongy ferrous products and iron having a minimum purity by weight of 99.94%, in lumps, pellets or sim
720610Iron or non-alloy steel; ingots (excluding iron of heading no. 7203)
720690Iron or non-alloy steel; primary forms (excluding ingots and iron of heading no. 7203)
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 45.7 mAlgeria USD 21.2 mKenya USD 13.2 mMorocco USD 12.2 mGhana USD 2 mZambia USD 1.8 mSudan USD 1.6 mMauritius USD 1.5 m

Source: IDOM/Takamul; SNIM · 2024

Uranium

Tiris project · Maturity: Not producing · Competitiveness: n/a
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 28 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
284410Uranium; natural uranium and its compounds, alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixtures conta
284420Uranium; enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds, alloys dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixt
284430Uranium; depleted in U235, thorium, their compounds, alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixtu
284440Radio-actives nes, their mixtures and compounds
284441Radioactive elements; tritium and its compounds; alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixtures
284442Radioactive elements; actinium-225, 227, californium-253, curium-240, 241, 242, 243, 244, einsteinium-253, 254, gadolini
284443Radioactive elements, isotopes and compounds; other alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixtur
284444Radioactive elements, isotopes, compounds n.e.c. in heading no. 2844, alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic p
284450Spent (irradiated) fuel elements (cartridges) of nuclear reactors
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Mauritania imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 16.6 mEgypt USD 4.2 mAlgeria USD 2.6 mMorocco USD 0.8 mKenya USD 0.6 mNigeria USD 0.6 mGhana USD 0.4 mUganda USD 0.3 m

Source: Aura Energy · 2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Mauritania is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Mauritania buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Mauritania is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 4.73 bn

Mauritania’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

17

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierMauritania imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Cement & clinkerEMERGINGUSD 63.4 mUSD 2.9 bn
LNGEMERGINGUSD 61.7 mUSD 10.27 bn
Cephalopods (octopus)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 2 mUSD 168.9 m
Red meatASPIRATIONALUSD 0.5 mUSD 146.5 m
Fishmeal & fish oilSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.4 mUSD 143 m
Green hydrogen/ammoniaASPIRATIONALUSD 0.3 mUSD 1.08 bn
Salt (iodised)ASPIRATIONALUSD 0.2 mUSD 303.1 m
Frozen non-fillet fishSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.1 mUSD 4.03 bn
Phosphate/fertilizerASPIRATIONALUSD 0.1 mUSD 249 m
Gold (dore)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 2.99 bn
Iron oreCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 0 mUSD 2.85 bn
Live animalsEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 1.02 bn
GypsumEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 386.9 m
Copper concentrateEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 353.9 m

Left-hand column: what Mauritania itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Mauritania’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 17 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Mauritania’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Mauritania. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Mauritania’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Mauritania’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 6.06 bn
02MoroccoUSD 3.75 bn
03UgandaUSD 2.08 bn
04South AfricaUSD 1.95 bn
05TunisiaUSD 1.8 bn
06Cote dIvoireUSD 1.61 bn
07AlgeriaUSD 1.04 bn
08GhanaUSD 859.4 m
09NigeriaUSD 830.2 m
10LibyaUSD 646.4 m
11CameroonUSD 461.1 m
12MauritiusUSD 340.4 m
13KenyaUSD 304.7 m
14ZambiaUSD 302.8 m
15MaliUSD 302.7 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Mauritania. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Mauritania would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Mauritania to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

African-standard cold-chain and human-consumption fish processing

Build EU-standard cold-chain and HACCP-certified human-consumption processing in the Nouadhibou Free Zone, and convert fishmeal feedstock toward human-grade output. The benchmark that would change the allocation is human-consumption processing yield rising.

02

Reorientation of fish exports toward Africa

Redirect a defined share of the catch to African markets under AfCFTA, since ~95% currently flows to the EU and Asia. The benchmark is African-destined fish exports rising from near-zero to a meaningful share.

03

Science-based quotas to protect the resource

Enforce IMROP science-based quotas to protect sardinella, which are assessed as fully-to-over-exploited. Without this the ecological ceiling caps any volume expansion.

04

A pelletising or DRI plant plus firm low-cost power

Commission a pelletising/DRI plant (Atomai targeted ~2029) and secure firm low-cost power; only then does iron ore move up the value chain. The benchmark is first pellets produced and a domestic or African off-take secured.

05

Reliable, expanded power under M300

Deliver the M300 initiative (100% electricity access and 70% renewables by 2030) and channel GTA Phase 2 gas to domestic industry. The benchmark is firm dispatchable capacity above 1 GW and access above 75%.

06

Clinker, iodised salt and cross-border trade facilitation

Stand up clinker production and food-grade iodised-salt capacity for regional export, expand TVET, and facilitate trade at the Rosso (Senegal), Mali and Morocco borders. The benchmark is iodised salt and clinker output online and a measurable LPI improvement.

The binding constraints
·

Power is a hard gate National electricity access is only 50.3% (rural 3.8%), and the ~490 MW installed base is thermal-dependent and unreliable — a binding constraint on any manufacturing or cold-chain build-out.

·

Logistics are single-purpose and uncompetitive The rail network is a single-purpose iron-ore line, port competitiveness is low with high landing costs (Nouadhibou is costlier than the nearby Canary Islands), the Logistics Performance Index is weak, and road integration with neighbours is limited.

·

Capital is thin and extractive-concentrated The banking sector is thin with high non-performing loans, FDI is concentrated in extractives, and the country relies on IMF and World Bank programmes.

·

Skills base is very shallow The Human Capital Index implies ~38% of potential productivity, learning-adjusted schooling is ~4.2 years, TVET is minimal, and the skilled-labour pool is tiny.

·

Governance and regional security carry moderate risk There is a moderate risk of debt distress and nearby Sahel instability (though Mauritania itself is relatively stable), and EITI rates the country at 'moderate progress' (2024).

·

Feedstock and ecological ceilings bind Fish stocks are ecologically capped, the copper mine is in decline, cement clinker is imported, and GTA Phase 1 gas is fully export-committed, so little stays onshore near-term.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Mauritania’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power is a hard gate, not a soft constraint. National electricity access is 50.3 per cent, with rural access at 3.8 per cent, on roughly 490 MW of installed capacity that is thermal-dependent and unreliable. The audit treats this as a hard gate on both manufacturing and cold chain.

05

The fishery has an ecological ceiling. Round and flat sardinella are assessed as fully to over-exploited by FAO and IMROP, which caps volumes irrespective of demand. Science-based IMROP quotas would have to be enforced to protect the stock.

06

Roughly 95 per cent of the catch leaves the continent. Current flows run to the EU and Asia, so redirecting toward African markets requires deliberate policy plus cold-chain investment. African-destined fish exports rising from near-zero to a meaningful share is the benchmark that would change the allocation.

07

Fishmeal competes with human consumption. Fishmeal accounted for around 15 per cent of the value of Mauritania's fishery-product exports over 2009 to 2018, with small pelagics above 71 per cent of the catch, and government is now regulating the sector down because it destroys food-security value. Conversion of feedstock toward human-grade output is required.

08

Logistics are single-purpose and uncompetitive. The 700-kilometre rail line serves iron ore alone, port competitiveness is low and landing costs high, with landing in Nouadhibou costlier than in the nearby Canary Islands, the Logistics Performance Index score is low and road integration with neighbours is limited.

09

The skills pool cannot yet staff processing at scale. The Human Capital Index implies about 38 per cent of potential productivity, learning-adjusted schooling is roughly 4.2 years, technical and vocational institutions are few, and the skilled-labour pool is small and low-skilled. TVET expansion is listed as a cross-cutting requirement.

10

Capital and fiscal headroom are thin. The banking sector is thin with high non-performing loans, FDI is concentrated in extractives, there is reliance on IMF and World Bank programmes, and the country carries a moderate risk of debt distress. EITI rates governance progress as moderate as of 2024.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Mauritania's Draft 1 bundle rests on fish and on nothing else that is presently finished. Frozen whole fish, processed crustaceans, cephalopods and, transitionally, fishmeal and fish oil are the categories in which endowment, existing processing capability and acute continental demand coincide, against a West and Central African protein deficit and a continental food import bill above USD 83 billion in 2023. Everything else in the endowment is either raw or unbuilt: iron ore without pellets, gold as doré without refining, LNG committed to export under Phase 1, copper as declining concentrate, cement dependent on imported clinker, and salt, phosphate, direct-reduction pellets and green hydrogen all still aspirational. What must be proven is therefore narrow and testable. EU-standard cold-chain and HACCP-certified human-consumption processing must be stood up in the Nouadhibou Free Zone; a defined share of catch must be redirected to African markets under AfCFTA; IMROP science-based quotas must be enforced so that sardinella volumes hold; and firm power must arrive under M300, which targets 100 per cent electricity access and 70 per cent renewables by 2030, with GTA Phase 2 gas channelled to domestic industry. The benchmarks that would move the allocation are explicit: African-destined fish exports rising from near-zero to a meaningful share, human-consumption processing yield up, firm dispatchable capacity above 1 GW, and access above 75 per cent.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Mauritania is shown 17 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Mauritania to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2