Right of Supply — Madagascar

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Herinjatovo Aimé Ramiarison, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Madagascar · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Ramiarison,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Madagascar — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Madagascar is in this room

Madagascar's strongest endowment is not its minerals but its apparel base: textiles and apparel remained the country's largest employer as of April 2025, providing over 400,000 direct and indirect jobs, half of them in Export Processing Zones around Antananarivo and Antsirabe, with Malagasy textile exports valued at 510 million dollars in 2023 and the country ranked first among Sub-Saharan African apparel exporters to the European Union and second to the United States. This is finished consumer goods and revealed competitiveness rather than aspiration. The honest constraint is that fabric is largely imported from China, India and Mauritius, creating an AfCFTA rules-of-origin vulnerability, and the base is structurally oriented to United States and European Union buyers, so that serving African markets would require active reorientation; behind it stands a wider limit, namely that island geography permits maritime delivery only and an electricity system reaching around 36 per cent of the population forecloses the energy-intensive processing that would otherwise convert world-class graphite, ilmenite and sapphire endowments into supply positions.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Madagascar, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Madagascar

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

16draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Madagascar’s draft bundle. 16 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Essential oils, Vanilla (cured), Cloves. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 5 strong contender · 7 emerging · 3 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Madagascar is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 16 candidate lines proposed for Madagascar below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Madagascar. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Madagascar will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Madagascar will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

16 lines

Madagascar’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Madagascar at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Madagascar’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Madagascar’s own capability audit.

Natural graphite as a processed supply position

Madagascar is the world's second-largest graphite producer, but output is flake-graphite concentrate exported raw, historically around 99 per cent to China by volume, and there is no domestic spherical or coated anode processing. Anode graphite is explicitly identified as energy-intensive beneficiation that the country's power position cannot support.

Raw base · industrial screen

Titanium ores and zircon as domestic beneficiation

QMM's ilmenite and zircon are shipped raw via the deep-water Port d'Ehoala to Rio Tinto's RTIT plant in Quebec, Canada, for processing into titanium dioxide. Beneficiation occurs offshore, not domestically.

Capability inversion

Sapphires and coloured gemstones as a finished-goods claim

Madagascar accounts for almost 40 per cent of global sapphire production, but the trade is almost entirely artisanal, with rough stones exported almost solely to Sri Lanka and Thailand for cutting and miners paid only 10 per cent of the value. There is no domestic cutting or polishing industry of scale.

Raw base · industrial screen

Chromite as a ferrochrome position

KRAOMA is the sole producer, with output at around 76,100 tonnes in 2019, down from 109,200 tonnes in 2018 and 208,100 tonnes in 2017 on ageing equipment. Concentrate at 48 to 50 per cent Cr2O3 and lumpy ore are exported; there is no domestic ferrochrome smelting.

Raw base · industrial screen

Bauxite and alumina

The Manantenina deposit is undeveloped and alumina processing is not viable given the energy deficit. The audit places it as aspirational, and lists alumina among the energy-intensive processes foreclosed by the power position.

Undeveloped · energy screen

Heavy oil and refined petroleum

Tsimiroro heavy oil and Bemolanga ultra-heavy bitumen are both undeveloped, there is no meaningful domestic refining, and Madagascar imports refined petroleum at over 600 million dollars in 2022. Madagascar Oil entered a court-approved financial restructuring in August 2025.

Undeveloped · incumbency

08 · Endowment

What Madagascar actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Madagascar. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Madagascar's endowment rests on three pillars. The first is minerals. Ambatovy is one of the world's largest lateritic nickel-cobalt operations: an open-pit mine near Moramanga, a 220 km slurry pipeline, and a pressure-acid-leach plant and refinery near Toamasina producing refined nickel and cobalt briquettes of minimum 99.9 per cent purity, with nameplate capacity of roughly 60,000 tonnes a year of refined nickel and about 5,600 tonnes of cobalt, plus ammonium sulphate. Beyond nickel, the island produced an estimated 89,000 tonnes of natural graphite in 2024, up from 63,000 tonnes in 2023, making it the world's second-largest producer behind China, with reserves revised to 27,000,000 tonnes, the third-largest globally. QIT Madagascar Minerals, held 80 per cent by Rio Tinto and 20 per cent by the Government, mines ilmenite and zircon from heavy-mineral sands at Mandena near Fort Dauphin, recording some 461,800 tonnes of ilmenite and 28,500 tonnes of zircon in 2019 against a design capacity of about 750,000 tonnes a year. State-owned Kraomita Malagasy is the sole chromite producer, and Madagascar accounts for almost 40 per cent of global sapphire production.

The second pillar is agricultural speciality. Madagascar is the world's largest vanilla producer: the Food and Agriculture Organisation attributes roughly 42 per cent of world supply by recorded production, while trade estimates put processed-vanilla exports at 80 per cent of overall global volume, with curing of Bourbon vanilla carried out in the SAVA region. Cloves run at some 12,000 to 16,000 tonnes a year and represented 7.6 per cent of national exports in 2023. Essential oils, principally clove-leaf oil at 80 to 82 per cent eugenol, the global benchmark, alongside ylang-ylang and ravintsara, rest on genuine steam-distillation processing and quality leadership, and form a top-three agricultural export. Fisheries add ASC-certified shrimp and prawns.

The third pillar, and the only finished-goods manufacturing capability of genuine continental relevance, is apparel. The US International Trade Administration records that as of April 2025 textiles and apparel remained the largest employer in Madagascar, providing over 400,000 direct and indirect jobs, half of them in Export Processing Zones around Antananarivo and Antsirabe. Madagascar ranks second among Sub-Saharan African apparel exporters to the United States under AGOA and first to the European Union. SEED Madagascar records that in 2023 alone Malagasy textile exports were valued at 510 million dollars, with 12.9 per cent going to the United States. Madagascar sits at economic complexity rank around 119th, having gained eight positions over the prior decade, with revealed comparative advantage in vanilla and spices, nickel, cloves, essential oils, titanium ores, knitted and woven apparel, and shrimp.

The endowment in depth

Madagascar's mineral endowment is genuinely first-rank, but the audit shows it captured almost entirely as raw or concentrate export, with a single true beneficiation story. That story is Ambatovy — one of the world's largest lateritic nickel-cobalt operations, combining an open-pit mine near Moramanga, a 220 km slurry pipeline and a pressure-acid-leach plant and refinery near Toamasina that produces refined nickel and cobalt briquettes of minimum 99.9% purity, plus ammonium sulphate. Nameplate capacity is roughly 60,000 t/yr refined nickel and about 5,600 t/yr cobalt, but actual output runs well below: around 28,000 t of nickel and roughly 2,500 t of cobalt in 2024 (USGS records 2,600 t cobalt mine output, down from 4,000 t in 2023), against cobalt reserves of 100,000 t. Ownership is Sumitomo (Japan) and KOMIR (Korea) after Sherritt exited via a debt-for-equity restructuring, and the asset exists only because of an anchor foreign investment of about USD 8 billion with integrated mine-to-refinery design. The rest of the mineral profile is world-class ore with no domestic finishing: natural graphite output of an estimated 89,000 t in 2024 (up from 63,000 t in 2023), the world's second-largest producer behind China, on reserves of 27,000,000 t (third-largest globally), led by NextSource Materials' Molo mine (SuperFlake, ~17,000 t/yr nameplate) but exported as raw flake concentrate — historically some 99% to China; QMM (Rio Tinto 80% / Government 20%) mining about 461,800 t ilmenite and 28,500 t zircon in 2019 from heavy-mineral sands at Mandena near Fort Dauphin, shipped raw via the deep-water Port d'Ehoala to Rio Tinto's RTIT plant in Quebec for titanium-dioxide processing; state-owned KRAOMA chromite (48–50% Cr₂O₃ concentrate) declining to about 76,100 t in 2019 from 208,100 t in 2017 on ageing equipment; and sapphires, where Madagascar accounts for almost 40% of global production from the Ilakaka-Sakaraha deposits discovered in 1998, yet exported rough to Sri Lanka and Thailand with miners paid only about 10% of the value of the stones.

Energy is the audit's first-order constraint on any heavy manufacturing or smelting, and the numbers are stark. Installed generation is only about 718 MW (2021 basis), split roughly 53% oil, 33% hydro and 14% solar, with electricity access reaching only about 36% of the population. Reliability is chronic: some 52% of firms report outages averaging 6.3 per month, and the state utility JIRAMA runs an annual deficit of about USD 250 million with arrears of about USD 400 million. The latent resource is large but unused — hydro potential of roughly 7,800 MW with only about 3% exploited, and abundant solar at 2,800 sun-hours a year. Hydrocarbons are similarly stranded: Tsimiroro heavy oil (14–16° API) holds 3P contingent resources of about 1.7 billion barrels and Bemolanga ultra-heavy/bitumen (8–13° API) about 9.8 billion barrels recoverable, but both are undeveloped, Madagascar Oil entered a court-approved financial restructuring in August 2025, there is no meaningful domestic refining, and the country imports refined petroleum worth more than USD 600 million (2022).

Agriculture is where Madagascar holds genuine global leadership with real processing know-how. It is the world's largest vanilla producer — FAO attributes about 42% of world supply by recorded production while trade estimates run far higher, with Chalmin et al. (2017) putting processed-vanilla exports at some 80% of global volume — on production of roughly 3,090 t in 2024, cured as "Bourbon" vanilla in the SAVA region. Cloves run at about 12,000–16,000 t/yr and 7.6% of national exports (2023). Essential oils (HS33) are a top-three agricultural export built on genuine steam-distillation and quality leadership — clove-leaf oil at 80–82% eugenol is the global benchmark, alongside ylang-ylang and ravintsara — though Madagascar holds only a marginal share of the global market. Fisheries add ASC-certified shrimp (Penaeus monodon, via Unima) and tuna, high quality but high-cost against Asian farmed shrimp, while lychee is a seasonal EU export and rice a staple in which the country is a net importer.

The existing industrial base is narrow but real, and it rests on apparel plus the logistics and labour that support it. Industry including construction is about 22.8% of GDP (2024) with very low manufacturing value-added per capita, but textiles and apparel form the genuine manufacturing base: as of April 2025 the largest employer in the country, providing over 400,000 direct and indirect jobs, half in Export Processing Zones around Antananarivo and Antsirabe, ranking 1st among Sub-Saharan African apparel exporters to the EU and 2nd to the US under AGOA, with 2023 textile exports valued at USD 510 million (12.9% to the US) — though fabric is largely imported from China, India and Mauritius, a rules-of-origin vulnerability. Beyond apparel there is LafargeHolcim cement for the domestic market and agro-processing (vanilla curing, oil distillation, shrimp processing). Human capital is defined by very low wages — historically the Zone Franche paid below other formal industrial sectors, a genuine apparel-competitiveness lever — an established garment skills cluster, a weak tertiary/TVET base, and high poverty at about 66.5% (2025). Logistics are dominated by Toamasina (Tamatave), which handles about 95% of container traffic at roughly 250,000 TEU/yr and is expanding toward 400,000+ TEU and a 16 m draft (MICTSL/ICTSI), with Ehoala a second deep-water port built for QMM — but the decisive fact is island geography: no land corridors to the mainland, so all continental delivery is maritime, favouring high-value-to-weight containerised goods over bulk.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Madagascar sits at ECI rank about 119 on the Harvard Growth Lab's Atlas of Economic Complexity — slightly more complex than its income level predicts — having gained about 8 positions over the prior decade on the back of export diversification, yet with a low growth projection of roughly 2.4%/yr to 2034, placing it in the bottom half globally. Its revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) clusters in spices (vanilla and cloves), refined nickel and cobalt, essential oils, mineral concentrates (titanium ores and zircon), knitted and woven apparel, and shrimp.

The Atlas flags feasible diversification mainly into adjacent light manufacturing and agro-processing rather than capital-intensive heavy industry — a read consistent with the binding energy constraint. The defensible near-term moves up the value ladder are therefore incremental: cured vanilla into vanilla extract and flavour preparations; clove into clove-leaf oil and on to refined eugenol; rough sapphire into cut and polished stones; and garments toward higher value-retention through regional fabric integration.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Apparel and garments (HS61 knitted, HS62 woven) are Madagascar's single most defensible continental supply position because they are the only category that satisfies all five tests of the framework at once. The resource is a deep, very-low-wage labour pool and an established skills cluster; the processing position is finished consumer goods — the top of the beneficiation ladder rather than raw export; the competitiveness is revealed, not aspirational, with Madagascar the 1st-ranked Sub-Saharan exporter of apparel to the EU and 2nd to the US under AGOA, textile exports valued at USD 510 million in 2023, and a workforce the US ITA describes as over 400,000 direct and indirect jobs as of April 2025; deliverability is favourable because garments are high-value-to-weight and containerised, the cargo type least penalised by maritime-only geography, moving efficiently through Toamasina; and continental demand is where the prize is largest, with Afreximbank stating that Africa spends roughly USD 50 billion a year importing cotton products it could manufacture itself, a gap currently filled largely by second-hand-clothing imports. No other Malagasy capability combines finished-goods manufacturing, real export scale and large continental demand in one position.

The honest limits are equally clear. Dependence on imported fabric from China, India and Mauritius creates an AfCFTA rules-of-origin vulnerability; the base is structurally oriented to US and EU buyers and would need active reorientation to serve African markets; political instability, as in 2009, can trigger preference loss and rapid job destruction; and competing low-cost producers in Asia and in Africa — Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho — contest the same buyers. The two runners-up sit well behind: refined nickel and cobalt (HS7502/8105) is the most genuinely beneficiated mineral, with Ambatovy producing 99.9% refined metal domestically, but continental demand for refined nickel is thin and the position rests on a single, cyclone-exposed, foreign-owned asset shut after Cyclone Gezani in early 2026; and essential oils and clove-leaf oil (HS3301) offer genuine distillation and global quality leadership at 80–82% eugenol but face a small absolute market and only modest African demand.

Current reality

Madagascar is a low-income Indian Ocean island economy, with GDP of 17.42 billion dollars and a population of 31.96 million in 2024, giving GDP per capita of around 545 dollars. Poverty stood at approximately 66.5 per cent in 2025. In minerals the country is overwhelmingly a raw or concentrate exporter, holding world-class ore with almost no domestic processing, which under a procurement-led framework is a weak position despite the endowment. Merchandise exports were around 3.2 billion dollars against imports of 4.7 billion dollars in 2023, with unwrought nickel at 25.1 per cent of exports, vanilla at 8.3 per cent, cloves at 7.6 per cent, titanium ores and concentrates at 5.2 per cent and gold at 3.8 per cent. Intra-African exports account for only about 7 per cent of the total, some 127 million dollars in 2020, overwhelmingly to COMESA and SADC; the export orientation is to Europe, Asia and the United States, not the continent.

Two constraints dominate. Energy is a first-order limit: installed generation is around 718 MW, oil-fired at some 53 per cent, hydro at 33 per cent and solar at 14 per cent, with electricity access at only about 36 per cent of the population; roughly 52 per cent of firms report outages averaging 6.3 a month, and the state utility JIRAMA runs an annual deficit of around 250 million dollars with arrears of about 400 million dollars. Island geography is the second: there are no land corridors to the mainland, all continental delivery is maritime, and this raises delivered cost and time while favouring high-value-to-weight containerised goods over bulk. Ambatovy's actual output sits well below nameplate, at around 28,000 tonnes of nickel and roughly 2,500 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, and operations were suspended in early 2026 after Tropical Cyclone Gezani struck the island, with a first acid plant restarting on 23 May 2026.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 16 candidate lines · will change

Madagascar’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Madagascar’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Madagascar will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Madagascar’s 16 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 5Emerging 7Aspirational 3Grey 1

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Heavy oil/refined petroleum

Tsimiroro 1.7bn bbl; Bemolanga 9.8bn bbl · Maturity: Undeveloped; no refining · Competitiveness: Very large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 121.62 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude

271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)

271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....

271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c

271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara

271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Madagascar imported USD 904.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 20 bnNigeria USD 19.94 bnEgypt USD 8.27 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.58 bnCote dIvoire USD 4.36 bn

Source: Madagascar Oil; DeGolyer & MacNaughton · 2015/2022

Gold

Endowment present; mostly informal exports · Maturity: Raw/unrefined · Competitiveness: Large

GREY

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 10.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: USGS · 2017

Cement

LafargeHolcim domestic plant · Maturity: Finished (domestic market) · Competitiveness: Very large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)

252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured

252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured

252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers

252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 78.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar your own imports USD 78.9 m

Madagascar is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: sector reports · 2023

Shrimp/prawns

ASC-certified aquaculture, premium P. monodon · Maturity: Processed/frozen · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 302.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030611Crustaceans; frozen, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not,

030612Crustaceans; frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell,

030613Frozen shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns in shell, cooked...

030614Crustaceans; frozen, crabs, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steamin

030615Crustaceans; frozen, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smok

030616Crustaceans; frozen, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or

030617Crustaceans; frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before o

030619Crustaceans; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.1, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shel

030621Rock lobster and other sea crawfish "Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp. and Jasus spp.", even smoked,...

030622Lobsters "Homarus spp.", even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried,...

030623Shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, live, dried, salted or in brine, incl. shrimps...

030624Crabs, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted or in brine,...

030626Cold-water shrimps and prawns "Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon", even smoked, whether in shell . . .

030627Shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted...

030629Crustaceans, even smoked, fit for human consumption, whether in shell or not, live, fresh,...

030631Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not

030632Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, lobsters (Homarus spp.), whether in shell or not

030633Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, crabs, whether in shell or not

030634Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not

030635Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not

030636Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, shrimps and prawns excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not

030639Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.3, in shell or not

030691Crustaceans; rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030692Crustaceans; lobsters (Homarus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030693Crustaceans; crabs, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030694Crustaceans; Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030695Crustaceans; shrimps and prawns, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking

030699Crustaceans; smoked, whole, cooked or not, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.9, in shell or not

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 122.8 mMorocco USD 101.3 mSouth Africa USD 38.5 mMauritius USD 17.1 mSeychelles USD 4.8 mTunisia USD 2.4 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mGhana USD 1.5 m

Source: FAO · 2023

Essential oils

Quality leadership 80-82% eugenol; distillation · Maturity: Intermediate (distilled oil) · Competitiveness: Modest

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 96.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

330111Oils of bergamot, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330112Oils, essential; of orange (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes

330113Oils, essential; of lemon (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes

330114Oils of lime, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330119Oils, essential; of citrus fruits n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes

330121Oils of geranium, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330122Oils of jasmin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330123Oils of lavender or of lavandin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330124Oils, essential; of peppermint (Mentha piperita), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes

330125Oils, essential; of mints (excluding peppermint), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes

330126Oils of vetiver, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes

330129Oils, essential; n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes

330130Resinoids

330190Oils, essential; concentrates in fats, fixed oils, waxes and the like, terpenic by-products, aqueous distillates and solutions, extracted oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 3301

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 24.1 mTanzania USD 13.2 mEgypt USD 9.7 mEswatini USD 8.3 mAlgeria USD 6.5 mNigeria USD 6.3 mKenya USD 2.8 mAngola USD 2.3 m

Source: World Bank; EDBM · 2024

Cocoa beans

Small high-quality fine-flavour producer · Maturity: Raw beans · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar your own imports USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Madagascar is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAO · 2023

Titanium ores & zircon

QMM ~462kt ilmenite (2019) · Maturity: Raw concentrate (processed in Canada) · Competitiveness: Modest

EMERGING

USD 22.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261400Titanium ores and concentrates

261510Zirconium ores and concentrates

261590Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 8 mEgypt USD 3.2 mGhana USD 2.3 mAlgeria USD 2.1 mZambia USD 1.8 mTunisia USD 1.7 mMorocco USD 1.2 mTanzania USD 1 m

Source: USGS MYB; Rio Tinto · 2019

Vanilla (cured)

World #1; ~42% FAO production, ~80% processed-export volume; SAVA curing · Maturity: Cured/semi-processed · Competitiveness: Marginal in Africa

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 22 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090500Vanilla

090510Spices; vanilla, neither crushed nor ground

090520Spices; vanilla, crushed or ground

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Madagascar imported USD 0.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Mauritius USD 17.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.2 mMadagascar your own imports USD 0.9 mTunisia USD 0.9 mUganda USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.3 mSudan USD 0.2 mNigeria USD 0.2 m

Madagascar is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAOSTAT; World Bank · 2024

Cloves

Major global exporter; 7.6% of exports · Maturity: Raw/dried spice · Competitiveness: Modest

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 18.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090700Cloves, whole fruit, cloves and stems

090710Spices; cloves (whole fruit, cloves and stems), neither crushed nor ground

090720Spices; cloves (whole fruit, cloves and stems), crushed or ground

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Madagascar imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 3.6 mSudan USD 2.8 mSouth Africa USD 2.5 mMorocco USD 1.5 mGhana USD 1.5 mSomalia USD 1.3 mAlgeria USD 1.3 mLibya USD 1.1 m

Source: Comtrade · 2023

Refined nickel

Ambatovy refinery, 99.9% briquettes, ~60kt/yr nameplate · Maturity: Refined metal (genuine domestic beneficiation) · Competitiveness: Thin continentally

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 17.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

750210Nickel; unwrought, not alloyed

750220Nickel; unwrought, alloys

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 9 mEgypt USD 6 mMorocco USD 1.1 mZambia USD 0.6 mAlgeria USD 0.5 mSouth Africa USD 0.3 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: Ambatovy; USGS MCS · 2024/2025

Bauxite/alumina

Manantenina deposit · Maturity: Undeveloped (no energy) · Competitiveness: Large

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 16.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260600Aluminium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 5.8 mSouth Africa USD 5.4 mUganda USD 1.1 mSenegal USD 0.9 mZimbabwe USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.7 mKenya USD 0.6 mAngola USD 0.4 m

Source: Rio Tinto-Alcan · 2020

Sapphires/gemstones

~40% of world sapphire supply · Maturity: Raw/rough (cut offshore) · Competitiveness: Niche

EMERGING

USD 11.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710310Stones; precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, unworked or simply sawn or roughly shaped, not strung,

710391Stones; rubies, sapphires and emeralds, worked (other than simply sawn or roughly shaped), not strung, mounted or set

710399Stones; precious (other than diamonds) and semi-precious stones, (other than rubies, sapphires and emeralds), worked oth

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 9.5 mMauritius USD 0.9 mMorocco USD 0.4 mEgypt USD 0.3 mTunisia USD 0.3 mZambia USD 0.2 mNamibia USD 0.1 m

Source: Equal Times; GIA · 2014/2024

Cobalt (refined)

Ambatovy by-product; ~2,500t (2024); reserves 100kt · Maturity: Refined metal · Competitiveness: Thin continentally

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 8.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

810520Cobalt; mattes and other intermediate products of cobalt metallurgy, unwrought cobalt, powders

810530Cobalt; waste and scrap

810590Cobalt; articles n.e.c. in heading no. 8105

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 5.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.5 mMorocco USD 0.9 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mEgypt USD 0.1 mAngola USD 0.1 mGhana USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS; Reuters · 2025/2026

Natural graphite

2nd-largest world producer 89kt (2024); reserves 27Mt · Maturity: Raw flake concentrate · Competitiveness: Modest continentally

EMERGING

USD 5.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250410Graphite; natural, in powder or in flakes

250490Graphite; natural, in other forms, excluding powder or flakes

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Congo USD 2.6 mSouth Africa USD 0.9 mEgypt USD 0.3 mNiger USD 0.2 mTanzania USD 0.2 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS · 2025

Chromite

KRAOMA sole producer; 76kt (2019), declining · Maturity: Concentrate/lumpy ore · Competitiveness: Modest

EMERGING

USD 1.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261000Chromium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 1 mMorocco USD 0.2 mEgypt USD 0.2 mZambia USD 0.1 mAngola USD 0.1 mTunisia USD 0.1 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Mica (phlogopite)

Significant producer · Maturity: Raw/sorted · Competitiveness: Niche

EMERGING

USD 1.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252510Mica; crude and rifted into sheets or splittings

252520Mica; powder

252530Mica; waste

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Madagascar imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 0.4 mAlgeria USD 0.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mAngola USD 0.1 mKenya USD 0.1 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS · 2019

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Madagascar is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Madagascar buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Madagascar is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 4.80 bn

Madagascar’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Madagascar imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Heavy oil/refined petroleum	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 904.8 m	USD 121.62 bn
Cement	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 78.9 m	USD 2.9 bn
Gold	GREY	USD 10.3 m	USD 2.99 bn
Vanilla (cured)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.9 m	USD 22 m
Cocoa beans	EMERGING	USD 0.2 m	USD 45.3 m
Shrimp/prawns	EMERGING	USD 0.1 m	USD 302.2 m
Essential oils	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.1 m	USD 96.5 m
Cloves	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.1 m	USD 18.7 m
Titanium ores & zircon	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 22.6 m
Refined nickel	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 17.7 m
Bauxite/alumina	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 16.2 m
Sapphires/gemstones	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 11.9 m
Cobalt (refined)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 8.6 m
Natural graphite	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 5.4 m

Left-hand column: what Madagascar itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Madagascar’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 16 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Madagascar’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Madagascar. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Madagascar’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Madagascar’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01South AfricaUSD 20.76 bn

02NigeriaUSD 19.95 bn

03EgyptUSD 8.56 bn

04DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn

05MoroccoUSD 7.77 bn

06GhanaUSD 4.92 bn

07LibyaUSD 4.83 bn

08Cote dIvoireUSD 4.64 bn

09UgandaUSD 2.04 bn

10MaliUSD 302.7 m

11Burkina FasoUSD 205.1 m

12CameroonUSD 144.9 m

13TunisiaUSD 82.7 m

14MadagascarUSD 80 m

15MauritiusUSD 71.3 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Madagascar. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Madagascar would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Madagascar to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Reliable industrial power

Energy at about 36% access, roughly 718 MW installed, chronic outages and an insolvent JIRAMA (~USD 250m annual deficit) is fatal for energy-intensive beneficiation — smelting, alumina and anode graphite are not viable until this is resolved.

Workable AfCFTA rules of origin

Apparel needs secured AfCFTA preferential access with rules of origin it can actually meet, given that fabric is largely imported from China, India and Mauritius.

Regional fabric integration and domestic weaving

Deepening domestic spinning and weaving, or integrating fabric supply with Mauritius, South Africa or East Africa, would cut the import dependence that undermines the apparel position.

Political stability to protect preferences

Preferences must be defended by stability; the 2009 crisis cost AGOA access and roughly 100,000 jobs, and renewed political tension in 2025–2026 is a live risk.

African downstream demand for refined metal

For Ambatovy's refined nickel and cobalt to matter continentally, African stainless-steel or battery-precursor buyers must develop — and the asset must first be restored to nameplate after the cyclone damage.

Domestic mineral processing capital

Converting world-class graphite, ilmenite and sapphire endowments into real supply positions requires building spherical/coated graphite anode, TiO₂ pigment and gemstone-cutting capacity — none viable without resolving the energy and capital constraints.

The binding constraints

Energy About 36% electricity access, roughly 718 MW installed, chronic outages and an insolvent utility — JIRAMA carries an annual deficit of about USD 250 million — make the grid fatal for any energy-intensive beneficiation such as smelting, alumina or anode graphite.

Logistics and island geography Island status removes all land corridors, so everything moves maritime, raising delivered cost and time to West and North Africa, and the country leans on a single dominant port at Toamasina.

Capital and scale Minerals capability is concentrated in two foreign-owned mega-projects — Ambatovy and QMM — with little domestic processing capital to build the next beneficiation stage.

Single-buyer and feedstock dependency Ambatovy output is sold to global metal markets, apparel fabric is imported, and vanilla and clove revenue is volatile — each a concentration risk on the input or the buyer side.

Governance, security and climate Recurrent political instability, informality in artisanal mining of gemstones and gold, and cyclone exposure — the Ambatovy shutdown after Tropical Cyclone Gezani in early 2026 — all threaten delivery reliability.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Madagascar’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

The energy position forecloses heavy beneficiation. Around 36 per cent electricity access, some 718 MW installed, chronic outages and an insolvent utility carrying a roughly 250 million dollar annual deficit are described as fatal for any energy-intensive beneficiation, including smelting, alumina and anode graphite. Hydro potential of about 7,800 MW is only some 3 per cent used.

Island geography removes every land corridor. All continental delivery is maritime, raising delivered cost to West and North Africa, and the country depends on a single dominant port at Toamasina. Only high-value-to-weight, containerised cargo escapes the penalty.

Apparel depends on imported fabric. Fabric is largely imported from China, India and Mauritius, which creates an AfCFTA rules-of-origin vulnerability. Securing preferential access would require workable rules of origin or regional fabric integration with Mauritius, South Africa or East Africa, and deeper domestic spinning and weaving.

The apparel base is oriented away from Africa. The sector is structurally built around United States and European Union buyers and would need active reorientation to African markets. Intra-African exports are only about 7 per cent of the total, some 127 million dollars in 2020.

Mineral capability rests on two foreign-owned assets. Capability is concentrated in Ambatovy and QMM, with little domestic processing capital. Ambatovy is cyclone-exposed and was shut after Tropical Cyclone Gezani in early 2026, with only a first acid plant restarting on 23 May 2026; restoring nameplate output is a precondition for any refined-metal allocation.

Continental demand for refined nickel is thin. African demand for refined nickel is limited by the small stainless-steel manufacturing base. For refined-metal allocations to matter continentally, African downstream demand — stainless-steel or battery-precursor buyers — would have to be developed.

Political instability can destroy preferences and jobs. Instability is a recurrent risk: the 2009 crisis cost AGOA access and around 100,000 jobs, and political tension renewed in 2025 to 2026. Maintaining stability is listed as a condition for protecting preferential access.

Vanilla and essential oils are quality-strong but demand-limited. Cured vanilla is a genuine processing position but sits in a tiny absolute global market with negligible African demand, and essential oils command quality leadership on only a marginal share of the global market. Moving to extracts and refined eugenol, with standardisation and traceability, is what would have to be true.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Madagascar's Draft 1 bundle rests on one finished-goods capability and a narrow set of genuinely processed commodities: knitted and woven apparel from an established Export Processing Zone base; refined nickel and cobalt briquettes of minimum 99.9 per cent purity from Ambatovy, the country's only real mineral beneficiation; and cured vanilla, cloves and distilled essential oils, where a century of curing know-how and 80 to 82 per cent eugenol quality leadership are real but the markets are small and African demand marginal. What must be proven is fourfold: that Ambatovy can be restored to nameplate after cyclone damage and that African downstream buyers for refined metal exist at all; that apparel can secure workable AfCFTA rules of origin or regional fabric integration and reorient from Atlantic to continental buyers; that container-shipping cost agreements can offset a maritime-only delivery geography with a single dominant port; and that the energy and capital constraints can be resolved before any claim is made on graphite, titanium dioxide or gemstone processing, none of which exists domestically today.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Madagascar is shown 16 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Madagascar to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Madagascar stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Madagascar?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Madagascar’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Madagascar?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.