Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
MoroccoBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Morocco — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
23
Draft 1 candidate lines for Morocco
The Minister’s brief · for Nadia Fettah Alaoui · Morocco
Minister Fettah Alaoui, beneath your soil lies what the whole continent cannot grow without: roughly 50 billion tonnes of phosphate rock, some 68 per cent of the world's total, and at Jorf Lasfar the world's largest fertiliser complex has already turned that rock into a record 12.37 million tonnes shipped in a single year, OCP now the world's largest phosphate-fertiliser producer, reaching 4.2 million smallholder farmers across 42 African nations. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, farmers apply barely 22 kilograms of fertiliser a hectare against a world average seven times higher — a continent starved of the very product your own fields already make. The Right of Supply gives Morocco a 25-year first right to serve that demand, disciplined by Match-or-Release: you hold the call only while you meet the market, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. The figures are yours to correct, and that correction is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Morocco
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Nadia Fettah Alaoui, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Morocco · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Fettah Alaoui,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Morocco — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Morocco is in this room

Morocco's strongest endowment is phosphate. It holds roughly 50 billion tonnes of phosphate rock, some 68 per cent of the world total, and it has already built the industrial chain that converts that rock into finished fertilizer at Jorf Lasfar, the world's largest fertilizer complex. OCP is the world's largest phosphate-fertilizer producer, holds a 31 per cent share of the world phosphate-product market, exported a record 12.37 million tonnes in 2024, and is active in 42 African countries reaching over 4.2 million smallholder farmers. The honest constraint is orientation and location: only about 6.6 per cent of Moroccan exports currently reach Africa, OCP's flagship production plants in Nigeria and Ethiopia remain non-operational after years of delay, and its DAP production still depends on imported ammonia. The capability is proven; its continental deployment is not yet.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Morocco, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Morocco

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
23draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Morocco’s draft bundle. 23 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Phosphatic & compound fertilizers, Phosphoric acid, Phosphate rock. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 3 continental anchor · 7 strong contender · 10 emerging · 2 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Morocco is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 23 candidate lines proposed for Morocco below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Morocco. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Morocco will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Morocco will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
23 lines
Morocco’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Morocco at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Morocco’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Morocco’s own capability audit.

Raw phosphate rock as a continental supply line

The audit records phosphate rock (HS 2510) as raw-stage with only moderate continental demand, noting that most of the value sits downstream. Morocco's defensible position is the finished fertilizer and phosphoric acid, not the unprocessed rock.

Raw base, industrial screen

Passenger vehicles and auto components as a near-term continental supply

Morocco is Africa's number one vehicle producer, but around 90 per cent of the roughly 614,000 cars produced in 2024 is exported and the flow is overwhelmingly Europe-bound. The audit states this caps the continental tier despite scale, holding vehicles at strong contender rather than anchor.

Trade orientation

EV battery cells and packs

The Gotion gigafactory at Kenitra targets production in the third quarter of 2026 and the category is tiered aspirational, under construction. The audit is explicit that battery and EV facilities are announced or under construction, not operational at scale, and should be treated as indicative.

Not yet operational

OCP manufacturing inside Africa

OCP's flagship in-Africa production plants in Nigeria and Ethiopia remain announced or delayed and non-operational after years, with only smaller blending units running. The audit states the manufacturing-in-Africa narrative is largely aspirational to date and that supply still ships largely from Morocco.

Incumbency

Aerospace components as continental supply

Aerospace is a strong contender globally but the audit tiers it emerging for continental purposes, recording low intra-African demand because output is EU and US bound. Between 84 and 96 per cent of aerospace value is foreign-owned, limiting sovereign control over allocation.

Capability inversion

Minor minerals: cobalt, silver, barite, fluorspar and copper

The audit records these figures as firm but small and of limited continental-supply relevance, each carrying low intra-African demand. Copper concentrate is tiered grey or insufficient on a single 2023 source.

Scale-matching
08 · Endowment
What Morocco actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Morocco. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Morocco's defining endowment is phosphate rock. It holds roughly 50 billion tonnes of reserves, approximately 68 per cent of the 73 billion-tonne world total, placing it first globally on reserves (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025/2026). Production reached 36 million tonnes in 2024, second globally behind China's 110 million tonnes. Domestic beneficiation and chemical processing are extensive, organised around the Khouribga-to-Jorf Lasfar slurry pipeline and the Gantour-to-Safi chemical site. State-owned OCP Group holds a 31 per cent share of the world phosphate-product market, and Jorf Lasfar is the world's largest fertilizer complex. Beyond phosphates, the mineral base includes cobalt from Bou Azzer (about 798 tonnes mined in 2023, one of only two mines globally where cobalt is the principal product), barite (world number four producer), silver (Africa's leading producer), fluorspar and arsenic trioxide (third globally).

The second endowment is an industrial base built largely from scratch. Morocco became Africa's number one vehicle producer in 2024, overtaking South Africa, with around 614,000 cars produced and capacity now exceeding one million units, across Renault Tangier-Melloussa (the largest assembly plant in Africa), Renault SOMACA Casablanca and Stellantis Kenitra. Aerospace comprises around 150 companies and 25,000 jobs, with exports of MAD 26.4 billion (roughly USD 3 billion) in 2024. Sonasid holds about 1.1 million tonnes per year of long-steel capacity; cement deliveries ran at about 13.7 million tonnes over January to November 2025. Underpinning this is Tanger Med, Africa's largest port, which handled 10,241,392 TEU in 2024 and 11,106,164 TEU in 2025, alongside the only high-speed rail line in Africa and the only power cable from Africa to Europe.

The third endowment is agricultural and marine. Morocco is Africa's leading seafood exporter, the world's leading sardine exporter and a global cephalopod leader, with 2022 exports of USD 2.89 billion; roughly 70 per cent of the coastal catch is processed and about 85 per cent of output exported. It is a world top-four fresh tomato exporter (some 690,000 to 745,000 tonnes in 2024/25) and Africa's third citrus exporter behind South Africa and Egypt. Renewable capacity stood at about 5.4 GW in 2024, some 45 per cent of installed electricity capacity, with a 52 per cent target by 2030 that the IEA-PVPS assesses as potentially reachable by 2028.

The endowment in depth

Morocco's mineral endowment is defined by a single world-scale asset. It holds roughly 50 billion tonnes of phosphate-rock reserves — about 68% of the 73 billion-tonne world total and first globally on reserves (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025) — and mined 36 Mt in 2024, second globally behind China's 110 Mt (USGS MCS 2026). Crucially, that rock is beneficiated and chemically processed domestically at scale: the Khouribga deposit feeds the Jorf Lasfar complex via slurry pipeline, and Gantour feeds the Safi chemical site, with state-owned OCP holding a 31% share of the world phosphate-product market. The secondary mineral basket is real but small in continental terms: cobalt at roughly 798 t in 2023 from the Bou Azzer mine (Managem), one of only two mines globally where cobalt is the principal product, at about 1.6% of world output; barite as the world's fourth producer at about 6% of output; silver as Africa's leading producer at about 1.1% of world output from Zgounder (Aya Gold & Silver) and Imiter (Managem); copper concentrate at about 55,640 t (2023); acid-grade fluorspar at about 69,000 t from El Hammam; and arsenic trioxide as the third producer globally at about 12.8% of output, alongside lead, zinc, manganese, gold and iron ore. A legal flag attaches to the endowment: about 2% of reserves lie in Western Sahara (Phosboucraa/Boucraâ), a disputed non-self-governing territory that has triggered investor divestment.

On energy, Morocco is structurally import-dependent — fossil fuels are negligible and import dependence runs near 90% — yet it is a continental renewables leader. Installed renewable capacity reached about 5.4 GW in 2024, roughly 45% of installed electricity capacity, split as wind (about 44% of renewable capacity, the largest share), hydro (about 24%), solar (about 17%) and pumped storage (about 15%); wind alone generated 9,363 GWh in 2024, up 43% year-on-year, about 21% of national electricity. Flagship assets include the Noor Ouarzazate CSP-plus-PV complex at 580 MW (the world's largest CSP when built), Noor Midelt I at 800 MW hybrid, and the 301 MW Tarfaya wind farm. The National Energy Strategy targets 52% renewable installed capacity by 2030 and is on track, potentially by 2028, against a wind potential near 25,000 MW and roughly 3,000 sun-hours a year. Morocco is also the only African country with a power cable to Europe, the Spain interconnector.

Agriculture and fisheries are genuine export strengths carrying high processing intensity. Morocco is Africa's number-one seafood exporter, the world's number-one sardine exporter and a global cephalopod leader, with 2022 exports of USD 2.89 billion, accounting for about 18.95% of the global export value of herrings, sardines and anchovies and about 6.41% of squids, cuttlefishes and octopus; roughly 70% of the coastal catch is processed and about 85% of output exported. In horticulture it is a world top-four fresh tomato exporter, having overtaken Spain, with about 690,000 to 745,000 t exported in 2024/25; Africa's third citrus exporter behind South Africa and Egypt at about 597,000 t projected for 2024/25 (the Nadorcott clementine); and an olive producer at about 1.6 million tonnes (2021), alongside berries, avocados and early vegetables. The binding qualifier is water: severe and worsening scarcity, groundwater overdraft, and an arable base of only about 85,000 km², with the EU absorbing more than 70% of agricultural exports.

The industrial base, human capital and logistics together explain why Morocco reads as an aspiring hub. Manufacturing value added is about 14.5% of GDP (2023, down from 15.7% in 2022), low for the ambition, with industry including construction at about USD 37.3 billion (2024). Its from-scratch automotive industry is now Africa's largest, having overtaken South Africa in 2024 — about 614,000 cars in 2024, capacity now exceeding one million units, roughly 90% exported — built on Renault Tangier-Melloussa (Africa's largest assembly plant), Renault SOMACA Casablanca and Stellantis Kenitra (a €1.2 billion expansion to 535,000 units by 2030). Alongside sit the OCP Jorf Lasfar fertilizer complex (the world's largest), Sonasid long steel at about 1.1 Mt/yr with national output above 2 Mt in 2022, cement deliveries of about 13.7 Mt (Jan-Nov 2025), and an aerospace cluster of about 150 companies and 25,000 jobs exporting MAD 26.4 billion (about USD 3 billion) in 2024, up 14.9%, around Safran, Boeing, Stelia and Spirit AeroSystems at about 40% local integration. The workforce is young (automotive-sector median age about 29), with roughly 180,000 university graduates a year including about 19,000 engineers and 55,000 technicians and dedicated institutes (IFMIA for automotive, IMA for aerospace), though unemployment sits near 13% (2024) and youth unemployment near 35.8% (2023), and Morocco ranks 57th on the WIPO Global Innovation Index (2025). Logistics anchor on Tanger Med, Africa's largest port, which handled 10,241,392 TEU in 2024 (up 18.8%) and 142 Mt of cargo — about 17th among world container ports — rising to 11,106,164 TEU in 2025, with dedicated vehicle terminals (600,872 vehicles in 2024) rail-linked to the car plants, the Strait of Gibraltar handling more than 10% of global maritime trade, and Africa's only high-speed rail line, Al Boraq, now extending Kenitra to Marrakech.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Morocco ranks 86th globally on the Economic Complexity Index (Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity), and the economy has become only marginally more complex over the past decade, up one position, but it is assessed as more complex than expected for its income level, with the Harvard Growth Lab projecting about 3.2% annual growth to 2034 — placing it in the top half of economies globally. Its revealed comparative advantage (RCA above 1) is concentrated in phosphates and derivatives (phosphatic fertilizers, calcium phosphates, phosphoric acid), insulated wire and cable, passenger cars and parts, fresh tomatoes, citrus, canned and frozen fish (sardines and cephalopods), women's apparel, and selected aircraft components.

The product-space read points to feasible diversification into higher-complexity machinery, electrical equipment and chemicals adjacent to the existing automotive-and-wiring and phosphate-chemicals clusters. The most consequential adjacency being built — battery materials, notably LFP cathode and precursors — leans on the phosphate link but is arriving primarily through foreign direct investment rather than organic domestic capability: a Chinese-led EV cluster includes the Gotion gigafactory at Kenitra (production targeted Q3 2026), the CNGR-Al Mada COBCO precursor and recycling plant at Jorf Lasfar (phase one operational June 2025, the first operational battery-chain project on the African continent), BTR cathode, Yahua-LG lithium hydroxide (designated a strategic project in July 2025) and Huayou-LG LFP cathode. That distinction — organic complexity gains versus FDI-imported capability — is the central caveat on Morocco's diversification story.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Morocco's single most defensible continental supply position is phosphate fertilizers and phosphoric acid (HS 3103/3105/2809) — the one category where it is unambiguously a continental anchor able to supply multiple African markets at scale today. The endowment is world-scale: roughly 50 billion tonnes of phosphate reserves, about 68% of the world total (USGS MCS 2025), feeding OCP, the world's largest phosphate-fertilizer producer, which holds a 31% share of the world phosphate-product market, reported 2024 revenue of about USD 9.76 billion, and set a record 12.37 Mt of Moroccan fertilizer exports in 2024. It is already Africa's dominant supplier: OCP accounted for 40% of Africa's fertilizer export value in 2024, and OCP Africa is active — directly or through partnerships — in 42 African countries reaching over 4.2 million smallholder farmers. The historical volume anchor is 2019, when exports of 9 million tonnes included 1.8 million tonnes to Africa, or 58% of total fertilizers sold on the continent, with a further 4 Mt committed to African farmers in 2023, and capacity is rising toward a 20 Mt/yr target by 2027 under the USD 13 billion Green Investment Program. The demand behind it is structural: Sub-Saharan Africa applies about 22 kg/ha of fertilizer against a world average of 146 kg/ha, seven times higher.

The honest limits are equally clear. OCP's flagship in-Africa production plants — Nigeria ammonia/fertilizer and Ethiopia at 2.5 Mt/yr — remain announced or delayed and non-operational after years, so supply still ships largely from Morocco; DAP production depends on imported ammonia, a feedstock vulnerability; and smallholder affordability is a binding demand constraint absent subsidy or finance. The volume evidence also carries measured uncertainty: OCP reports Africa by revenue share (about 18% in H1 2025) rather than tonnage, the cleanest actual volume figure remains 2019's 1.8 Mt at 58% of continental sales, and the 4 Mt 2023 figure is a stated commitment rather than an audited shipment. On present evidence the supply strength is real and dominant, but the in-Africa manufacturing footprint behind it is still being built.

Current reality

Morocco is a USD 154.4 billion economy of some 37.8 million people (World Bank, 2024). Manufacturing value added is about 14.5 per cent of GDP (2023), down from 15.7 per cent in 2022 and low for an aspiring industrial hub. Total exports ran at roughly USD 50.3 billion in 2025, led by cars (about 12.6 per cent), insulated wire and cable (12.4 per cent), fertilizer mixes (11.1 per cent) and phosphatic fertilizers (4.3 per cent). On the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, Morocco ranks 86th globally, assessed as more complex than expected for its income level, with the Growth Lab projecting around 3.2 per cent annual growth to 2034.

The central tension for any continental-supply mandate is orientation. Approximately 69.3 per cent of exports go to Europe and only 6.6 per cent to Africa; Spain (21.5 per cent) and France (19 per cent) alone dominate. Logistics, contracts and standards are built for Europe, and around 90 per cent of vehicle output is exported, overwhelmingly to European markets. Energy import dependence is about 90 per cent despite renewable leadership, water scarcity is severe and worsening, and unemployment stands at roughly 13 per cent with youth unemployment at 35.8 per cent (2023). Morocco is therefore a genuine continental anchor in one category, a strong contender in several manufactured and processed-food categories, and emerging to aspirational elsewhere.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 23 candidate lines · will change

Morocco’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Morocco’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Morocco will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Morocco’s 23 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 3Strong Contender 7Emerging 10Aspirational 2Grey 1
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Passenger vehicles

Africa's #1 producer; Renault/Stellantis · Maturity: Finished assembly · Competitiveness: Moderate-high
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 21.61 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
870310Vehicles; specially designed for travelling on snow, golf cars and similar vehicles
870321Vehicles; with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity not over 1000cc
870322Vehicles; with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500cc
870323Vehicles; with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1500 but not
870324Vehicles; with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity over 3000cc
870331Vehicles; with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity no
870332Vehicles; with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity ov
870333Vehicles; with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity ov
870340Vehicles; with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of bei
870350Vehicles; with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor fo
870360Vehicles; with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, capable of being
870370Vehicles; with both compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel) and electric motor fo
870380Vehicles; with only electric motor for propulsion
870390Vehicles; for transport of persons (other than those of heading no. 8702) n.e.c. in heading no. 8703
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Morocco imported USD 2.5 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.11 bnMorocco your own imports USD 2.5 bnEgypt USD 2.37 bnNigeria USD 2.34 bnAlgeria USD 1.59 bnLibya USD 914.4 mTunisia USD 812.2 mEthiopia USD 575.3 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Atalayar; Tanger Med · 2024

Auto parts

170+ supplier plants · Maturity: Finished component · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 7.66 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
870810Vehicles; bumpers and parts thereof, for the vehicles of heading no. 8701 to 8705
870821Vehicles; parts of bodies, safety seat belts
870822Vehicles; parts and accessories, front windscreens (windshields), rear windows and other windows specified in subheading
870829Vehicles; parts and accessories, of bodies, other than safety seat belts
870830Vehicle parts; brakes, servo-brakes and parts thereof
870831Mounted brake linings for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons,...
870839Brakes and servo-brakes and parts thereof for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of...
870840Vehicle parts; gear boxes and parts thereof
870850Vehicle parts; drive-axles with differential, whether or not provided with other transmission components, and non-drivin
870860Non-driving axles and parts thereof for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or...
870870Vehicle parts; road wheels and parts and accessories thereof
870880Vehicle parts; suspension systems and parts thereof (including shock-absorbers)
870891Vehicle parts; radiators and parts thereof
870892Vehicle parts; silencers (mufflers) and exhaust pipes; parts thereof
870893Vehicle parts; clutches and parts thereof
870894Vehicle parts; steering wheels, steering columns and steering boxes; parts thereof
870895Vehicle parts; safety airbags with inflater system; parts thereof
870899Vehicle parts and accessories; n.e.c. in heading no. 8708
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 2.4 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco your own imports USD 2.4 bnSouth Africa USD 1.85 bnAlgeria USD 583.7 mEgypt USD 510.1 mLibya USD 270.2 mNigeria USD 260.2 mTunisia USD 214.6 mGhana USD 148 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Yabiladi · 2024

Insulated wire/cable

~12% of exports; supplier base · Maturity: Finished component · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 5.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
854411Insulated electric conductors; winding wire, of copper
854419Insulated electric conductors; winding wire, (of other than copper)
854420Insulated electric conductors; co-axial cable and other co-axial electric conductors
854430Insulated electric conductors; ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets of a kind used in vehicles, aircraft or ships
854441Electric conductors for a voltage <= 80 V, insulated, fitted with connectors, n.e.s.
854442Insulated electric conductors; for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, fitted with connectors
854449Insulated electric conductors; for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not fitted with connectors
854451Electric conductors, for a voltage > 80 V but <= 1.000 V, insulated, fitted with connectors,...
854459Electric conductors, for a voltage > 80 V but <= 1.000 V, insulated, not fitted with connectors,...
854460Insulated electric conductors; for a voltage exceeding 1000 volts
854470Insulated electric conductors; optical fibre cables
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): State utilities · High-voltage transmission lines · control: sole lawful buyer. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Morocco imported USD 1.78 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco your own imports USD 1.78 bnTunisia USD 591.1 mSouth Africa USD 566.5 mEgypt USD 349.9 mLibya USD 203.7 mGhana USD 183.7 mAlgeria USD 179.7 mDR Congo USD 146.7 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: worldstopexports · 2025

Frozen cephalopods/fish

Global cephalopod leader · Maturity: Semi-processed · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 4.2 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .
030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an
030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo
030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e
030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae
030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh
030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...
030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)
030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03
030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304
030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings
030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t
030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"
030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"
030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9
030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...
030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)
030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks
030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)
030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)
030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...
030380Frozen fish livers and roes
030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030390Frozen fish livers and roes
030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt
030392Fish; frozen, shark fins
030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal
030710Oysters, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine
030711Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030712Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, frozen
030719Molluscs; oysters, whether in shell or not, dried, salted or in brine, smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030721Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030722Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, frozen
030729Molluscs; scallops and other molluscs of the family Pectinidae, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030731Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030732Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, frozen
030739Molluscs; mussels (Mytilus spp., Perna spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030741Live, fresh or chilled, not smoked, cuttle fish "Sepia officinalis, Rossia macrosoma, Sepiola...
030742Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030743Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, frozen
030749Molluscs; cuttle fish and squid, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030751Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), live, fresh or chilled
030752Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), frozen
030759Molluscs; octopus (Octopus spp.), dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030760Molluscs; snails, other than sea snails, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030771Molluscs; clams, cockles and ark shells (families Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae and Veneridae), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030772Molluscs; clams, cockles, ark shells (Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae and Veneridae), whether in shell or not, frozen
030779Molluscs; clams, cockle, ark shells (families Arcidae, Arcticidae, Cardiidae, Donacidae, Hiatellidae, Mactridae, Mesodesmatidae, Myidae, Semelidae, Solecurtidae, Solenidae, Tridacnidae, Veneridae), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, smoked
030781Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030782Molluscs; stromboid conchs (Strombus spp.), whether in shell or not, live, fresh or chilled
030783Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, frozen
030787Molluscs; abalone (Haliotis spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030788Molluscs; stromboid conchs (Strombus spp.), whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
030791Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, live or fresh, chilled
030792Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, frozen
030799Molluscs; n.e.c. in heading 0307, whether in shell or not, dried, salted, in brine, or smoked, cooked or not before or during the smoking process
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Morocco imported USD 143.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Cote dIvoire USD 836 mNigeria USD 568.3 mEgypt USD 377.5 mCameroon USD 301.1 mGhana USD 293.9 mMauritius USD 232.9 mSouth Africa USD 165 mZambia USD 164 m

Source: FAO · 2024

EV battery cells & packs

Gotion gigafactory from 2026 · Maturity: Under construction · Competitiveness: Rising
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 3.5 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
850710Electric accumulators; lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston engines, including separators, whether or not recta
850720Electric accumulators; lead-acid, (other than for starting piston engines), including separators, whether or not rectang
850730Electric accumulators; nickel-cadmium, including separators, whether or not rectangular (including square)
850740Nickel-iron electric accumulators
850750Electric accumulators; nickel-metal hydride, including separators, whether or not rectangular (including square)
850760Electric accumulators; lithium-ion, including separators, whether or not rectangular (including square)
850780Electric accumulators; other than lead-acid, nickel-cadmium, nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion, including separators,
850790Electric accumulators; parts n.e.c. in heading no. 8507
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 104.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 2 bnEgypt USD 134.6 mMorocco your own imports USD 104.3 mAlgeria USD 102.6 mNigeria USD 98.9 mSierra Leone USD 69.4 mTanzania USD 60.4 mGhana USD 60 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: CnEVPost; SCMP · 2024

Phosphatic & compound fertilizers

68% world phosphate reserves; world #1 fertilizer exporter · Maturity: Finished fertilizer · Competitiveness: Very high (SSA ~22 kg/ha vs 146 world avg)
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 3.44 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
310310Superphosphates (excluding those in tablets or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...
310311Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus pentaoxi
310319Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, superphosphates, other than containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphor
310390Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; phosphatic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3103
310510Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; in tablets or similar forms or in packages of a gross weight not exceeding 10kg
310520Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium
310530Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)
310540Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate (monoammonium phosphate) and mixtures thereof with d
310551Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing nitrates and phosphates
310559Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the two fertilizing elements nitrogen and phosphorus, other than nitrates a
310560Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; containing the two fertilizing elements phosphorus and potassium
310590Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; n.e.c. in heading no. 3105
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): Ministry of Agriculture · Input Subsidy Programs · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Morocco imported USD 24.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ethiopia USD 699.4 mKenya USD 275.9 mZambia USD 217.8 mTanzania USD 217.7 mCote dIvoire USD 178.2 mEgypt USD 172.9 mMalawi USD 170.1 mSouth Africa USD 169.1 m

Source: USGS MCS; OCP; World Bank/IFDC · 2024/2025

Cement & clinker

Large coastal industry · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 15.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: Global Cement · 2025

Long steel (rebar/wire rod)

Sonasid ~1.1 Mt/yr · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 2.6 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
721310Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, containing indentations, ribs, grooves o
721320Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, of free-cutting steel
721391Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of circular
721399Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of circular
721410Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, forged, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after
721420Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves or
721430Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, including those twisted after rolling, of
721491Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, n.e.c. in heading no. 7214, of rectangula
721499Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, n.e.c. in heading no. 7214, other than of
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 116.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 217.8 mDjibouti USD 194.9 mEthiopia USD 173.1 mCote dIvoire USD 139.6 mGhana USD 134.1 mEgypt USD 120.5 mMorocco your own imports USD 116.2 mTanzania USD 93.1 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Sonasid/SteelOrbis · 2023/2024

LFP cathode/precursors

CNGR/COBCO operational 2025 · Maturity: Early operational · Competitiveness: Rising
EMERGING
USD 2.28 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
283410Nitrites
283421Nitrates; of potassium
283429Nitrates; of other than potassium
382410Binders, prepared; for foundry moulds or cores
382420Naphthenic acids and the water-insoluble salts and esters therof
382430Metal carbides, non-agglomerated; mixed together or with metallic binders
382440Cements, mortars or concretes; their prepared additives
382450Mortars and concretes; non-refractory
382460Sorbitol; other than that of subheading no. 2905.44
382471Mixtures containing specific gases like CFCs, HCFCs, etc.
382472Mixtures: containing bromochlorodifluoromethane, bromotrifluoromethane or dibromotetrafluoroethanes
382473Mixtures: containing hydrobromofluorocarbons (HBFCs)
382474Mixtures: containing hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), but not containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
382475Mixtures: containing carbon tetrachloride
382476Mixtures containing halogenated derivatives of methane, ethane or propane: containing 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform)
382477Mixtures containing halogenated derivatives of methane, ethane or propane: containing bromomethane or bromochloromethane
382478Mixtures that containing perfluorocarbons (PFCs) or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), but not containing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
382479Mixtures containing halogenated derivatives of methane, ethane or propane
382481Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing oxirane (ethylene oxide)
382482Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated terphenyls (PCTs) or polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs)
382483Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing tris(2,3-dibromopropyl) phosphate
382484Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing aldrin, camphechlor (toxaphene), chlordane, chlordecone, DDT (chlorfenotane, 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane), dieldrin, endosulfan, endrin, heptachlor or mirex
382485Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing 1,2,3,4,5,6-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH (ISO)), including lindane (ISO, INN)
382486Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing pentachlorobenzene (ISO) or hexachlorobenzene (ISO)
382487Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing perfluorooctane sulphonic acid, its salts, perfluorooctane sulphonamides, or perfluorooctane sulphonyl fluoride
382488Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing tetra-, penta-, hexa-, hepta- or octabromodiphenyl ethers
382489Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; containing goods specified in Subheading Note 3 to this Chapter; containing short-chain chlorinated paraffins
382490Chemical products and preparations of the chemical or allied industries, incl. those consisting...
382491Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; consisting mainly of (5-ethyl-2-methyl-2-oxido-1,3,2-dioxaphosphinan-5-yl)methyl methyl methylphosphonate and bis[(5-ethyl-2-methyl-2-oxido-1,3,2-dioxaphosphinan-5-yl)methyl] methylphosphonate
382492Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; polyglycol esters of methylphosphonic acid
382499Chemical products, mixtures and preparations; n.e.c. heading 3824
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Morocco imported USD 241 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 420.1 mEgypt USD 382.5 mMorocco your own imports USD 241 mAlgeria USD 127 mZambia USD 100.5 mDR Congo USD 94.9 mNigeria USD 94.5 mCongo USD 72.3 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Electrification-Solutions · 2025

Green hydrogen/ammonia

Renewable potential; OCP green NH3 · Maturity: Announced · Competitiveness: Rising
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 1.07 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
281410Ammonia; anhydrous
281420Ammonia; in aqueous solution
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 872.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco your own imports USD 872.5 mTunisia USD 87.3 mSouth Africa USD 49.1 mMadagascar USD 25.1 mEgypt USD 19.5 mNamibia USD 4.5 mSenegal USD 4.2 mCameroon USD 1.6 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: OCP · 2024

Canned fish (sardines)

World #1 sardine exporter · Maturity: Finished processed · Competitiveness: High
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince
160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc
160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604
160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved
160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs
160431Fish preparations; caviar
160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 44.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco your own imports USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAO · 2024

Apparel (women's, not knit)

Established textile base · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 833.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
620411Suits; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620412Suits; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620413Suits; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620419Suits; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.1 (not knitted or crocheted)
620421Ensembles; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620422Ensembles; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620423Ensembles; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620429Ensembles; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.2 (not knitted or crocheted)
620431Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620432Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620433Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620439Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.3 (not knitted or crocheted)
620441Dresses; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620442Dresses; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620443Dresses; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620444Dresses; women's or girls', of artificial fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620449Dresses; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.4 (not knitted or crocheted)
620451Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620452Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620453Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620459Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.5 (not knitted or crocheted)
620461Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)
620462Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)
620463Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)
620469Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of textile materials (other than wool, fine animal hair, cotton or synthetic fibres), (not knitted or crocheted)
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 54.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 262.6 mAlgeria USD 84.9 mLibya USD 61.3 mGhana USD 56.1 mMorocco your own imports USD 54.2 mEgypt USD 52.2 mGuinea USD 36.3 mKenya USD 29.8 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: worldstopexports · 2025

Olive oil & table olives

~1.6 Mt olives · Maturity: Processed · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 526.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
150910Olive oil, virgin
150920Vegetable oils; olive oil and its fractions, extra virgin olive oil, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
150930Vegetable oils; olive oil and its fractions, virgin olive oil, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
150940Vegetable oils; olive oil and its fractions, virgin olive oils n.e.c. in heading 1509, whether or not refined, but not c
150990Vegetable oils; olive oil and its fractions, other than virgin, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
200510Vegetable preparations; homogenised vegetables, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not froz
200520Vegetable preparations; potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200540Vegetable preparations; peas (pisum sativum), prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200551Vegetable preparations; beans, shelled, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200559Vegetable preparations; beans, (not shelled), prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200560Vegetable preparations; asparagus, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200570Vegetable preparations; olives, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200580Vegetable preparations; sweetcorn (zea mays var. saccharata), prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200590Vegetables and mixtures of vegetables, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar, non-frozen...
200591Vegetable preparations; bamboo shoots, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
200599Vegetable preparations; vegetables and mixtures of vegetables n.e.c. in heading no. 2005, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Morocco imported USD 96.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 120.7 mMorocco your own imports USD 96.4 mLibya USD 41.6 mSouth Africa USD 37 mBotswana USD 18.4 mNamibia USD 13.6 mMauritius USD 12 mAngola USD 11.8 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: FAO/Statista · 2021

Copper concentrate

Managem ~55.6 kt · Maturity: Concentrate · Competitiveness: Low
GREY
USD 353.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260300Copper ores and concentrates
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Namibia USD 250.5 mZambia USD 103 mSouth Africa USD 0.3 mTanzania USD 0.1 m

Source: Capmad · 2023

Citrus

Africa's #3 citrus exporter · Maturity: Fresh · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 103.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080510Fruit, edible; oranges, fresh or dried
080520Fresh or dried mandarins incl. tangerines and satsumas, clementines, wilkings and similar citrus...
080521Fruit, edible; mandarins (including tangerines and satsumas), fresh or dried
080522Fruit, edible; clementines, fresh or dried
080529Fruit, edible; tangelos, wilkings and similar citrus hybrid, fresh or dried
080540Fruit, edible; grapefruit and pomelos, fresh or dried
080550Fruit, edible; lemons (Citrus limon, Citrus limonum), limes (Citrus aurantifolia, Citrus latifolia), fresh or dried
080590Fruit, edible; citrus fruit n.e.c. in heading no. 0805, fresh or dried
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius USD 10.6 mSenegal USD 8.2 mCote dIvoire USD 8.2 mKenya USD 6.6 mDjibouti USD 6.5 mSouth Africa USD 5.1 mCabo Verde USD 4.4 mRwanda USD 4.4 m

Source: North Africa Post · 2024/25

Phosphoric acid

OCP integrated chemical capacity · Maturity: Semi-finished · Competitiveness: High
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 81.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
280910Diphosphorus pentoxide
280920Phosphoric acid and polyphosphoric acids
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 5.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
DR Congo USD 15.1 mEgypt USD 13.3 mAlgeria USD 11.3 mSouth Africa USD 7.9 mEswatini USD 7.9 mMorocco your own imports USD 5.2 mCote dIvoire USD 3.8 mNigeria USD 2.5 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: OCP; USGS · 2024

Barite

World #4 producer · Maturity: Raw/ground · Competitiveness: Low
EMERGING
USD 65 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251110Barium sulphate (barytes); natural
251120Barium carbonate (witherite); natural, whether or not calcined, other than barium oxide of heading no. 2816
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Morocco imported USD 1.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 16.2 mAngola USD 10 mTunisia USD 8.5 mEgypt USD 8.4 mCongo USD 4 mNigeria USD 3.5 mSenegal USD 2.2 mGabon USD 1.7 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2020-21

Fluorspar

El Hammam acid-grade · Maturity: Concentrate · Competitiveness: Low
EMERGING
USD 51.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252910Feldspar
252921Fluorspar; containing by weight 97% or less of calcium fluoride
252922Fluorspar; containing by weight more than 97% of calcium fluoride
252930Leucite; nepheline and nepheline syenite
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Morocco imported USD 1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 23 mEgypt USD 17.2 mAlgeria USD 6.5 mSouth Africa USD 2 mMorocco your own imports USD 1 mGhana USD 0.6 mTanzania USD 0.5 mEthiopia USD 0.3 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: USGS MYB · 2020-21

Fresh tomatoes

World top-4 exporter · Maturity: Fresh/packed · Competitiveness: Moderate
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 44 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
070200Vegetables; tomatoes, fresh or chilled
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Morocco imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 8.7 mSomalia USD 6.9 mMauritania USD 5.5 mDjibouti USD 4.9 mCote dIvoire USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.1 mLibya USD 2 mSeychelles USD 1.7 m

Source: EastFruit · 2024/25

Silver

Africa's #1 producer · Maturity: Refined · Competitiveness: Low
EMERGING
USD 27.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710610Metals; silver powder
710691Metals; silver, unwrought, (but not powder)
710692Metals; silver, semi-manufactured
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 1.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 10.5 mSouth Africa USD 5.6 mAlgeria USD 5.5 mTunisia USD 2.4 mMauritius USD 1.6 mMorocco your own imports USD 1.2 mGuinea USD 0.1 mLibya USD 0.1 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: USGS MYB · 2020-21

Phosphate rock

Largest reserves globally · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 11.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251010Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; unground
251020Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; ground
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 4.7 mSouth Africa USD 2.9 mTunisia USD 1.5 mCote dIvoire USD 1.4 mGhana USD 0.5 mUganda USD 0.3 mNigeria USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.2 m

Source: USGS MCS · 2025/2026

Cobalt

Bou Azzer ~798 t · Maturity: Refined cathode · Competitiveness: Low
EMERGING
USD 8.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
810520Cobalt; mattes and other intermediate products of cobalt metallurgy, unwrought cobalt, powders
810530Cobalt; waste and scrap
810590Cobalt; articles n.e.c. in heading no. 8105
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 0.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 5.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.5 mMorocco your own imports USD 0.9 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mEgypt USD 0.1 mAngola USD 0.1 mGhana USD 0.1 m

Morocco is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: USGS; Capmad · 2023

Aerospace components

~150 firms; Safran/Boeing · Maturity: Finished component · Competitiveness: Low intra-Africa
EMERGING
USD 5.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
880310Propellers and rotors for aircraft
880320Undercarriages and parts for aircraft
880330Other Aircraft parts
880390Parts of balloons, dirigibles, spacecraft
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Morocco imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 5.2 m

Source: North Africa Post · 2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Morocco is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Morocco buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Morocco is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 70.67 bn

Morocco’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

23

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierMorocco imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Passenger vehiclesSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 2.5 bnUSD 21.61 bn
Auto partsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 2.4 bnUSD 7.66 bn
Insulated wire/cableSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 1.78 bnUSD 5.78 bn
Green hydrogen/ammoniaASPIRATIONALUSD 872.5 mUSD 1.07 bn
LFP cathode/precursorsEMERGINGUSD 241 mUSD 2.28 bn
Frozen cephalopods/fishSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 143.5 mUSD 4.2 bn
Long steel (rebar/wire rod)EMERGINGUSD 116.2 mUSD 2.6 bn
EV battery cells & packsASPIRATIONALUSD 104.3 mUSD 3.5 bn
Olive oil & table olivesEMERGINGUSD 96.4 mUSD 526.4 m
Apparel (women's, not knit)EMERGINGUSD 54.2 mUSD 833.2 m
Canned fish (sardines)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 44.2 mUSD 850.3 m
Phosphatic & compound fertilizersCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 24.4 mUSD 3.44 bn
Cement & clinkerEMERGINGUSD 15.3 mUSD 2.9 bn
Phosphoric acidCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 5.2 mUSD 81.1 m

Left-hand column: what Morocco itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Morocco’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 23 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Morocco’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Morocco. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Morocco’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Morocco’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 9.76 bn
02MoroccoUSD 8.22 bn
03EgyptUSD 4.62 bn
04NigeriaUSD 3.49 bn
05AlgeriaUSD 2.78 bn
06LibyaUSD 1.87 bn
07TunisiaUSD 1.75 bn
08EthiopiaUSD 1.45 bn
09Cote dIvoireUSD 1.44 bn
10GhanaUSD 1.26 bn
11ZambiaUSD 585.3 m
12CameroonUSD 447.6 m
13TanzaniaUSD 371.8 m
14KenyaUSD 312.5 m
15MaliUSD 302.7 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Morocco. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Morocco would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Morocco to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

OCP produces inside African demand centres

OCP completes and operates downstream blending and production hubs within Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, Rwanda and beyond, rather than only shipping finished product from Morocco, and reaches its 20 Mt/yr capacity target by 2027.

02

Feedstock and finance are secured

OCP secures non-Moroccan or green ammonia to cut its DAP feedstock dependence, and pairs supply with farmer-finance and subsidy mechanisms that convert latent smallholder demand into effective demand.

03

AfCFTA makes vehicles competitive intra-Africa

AfCFTA-enabled demand and rules-of-origin make intra-African vehicle and component sales competitive against EU export margins, and African road and port infrastructure can support distribution.

04

Processed-fish routes are certified

Cold-chain and halal or quality certification is extended to intra-African routes, and sustainable-catch management maintains stocks.

05

Steel and cement redirect to Africa

Surplus steel and cement capacity is redirected to African construction markets where freight economics work, notably coastal West Africa.

06

Gigafactories allocate output to Africa

The battery gigafactories reach operation from 2026 and a meaningful share of output is allocated to African EV and storage markets rather than entirely to Europe.

The binding constraints
·

Europe-facing trade orientation Only about 6.6% of Morocco's exports currently reach Africa; the logistics, contracts and standards of the export base are built for Europe, which is the central tension for any continental-supply mandate.

·

In-Africa production gap OCP's flagship in-Africa plants in Nigeria and Ethiopia have been chronically delayed — originally targeted for 2023/24 and still not operational at scale — with only smaller blending units live (Rwanda about 100 kt; Nigeria about 500 kt across three units; a Ghana mini-blender in 2025) across roughly 28 blending units, leaving the manufacturing-in-Africa narrative largely aspirational to date.

·

Feedstock dependency OCP's nitrogen fertilizers (DAP) rely on imported ammonia, and the emerging battery chain relies on imported lithium and precursor inputs, both of which create external-supply vulnerabilities.

·

Water and energy pressure on heavy industry Water scarcity is severe and worsening, constraining phosphate processing (partly mitigated by desalination at Jorf Lasfar) and export agriculture, while energy import dependence near 90% — despite renewable leadership — bears on power cost and reliability for heavy industry.

·

Foreign ownership and legal exposure Much EV/battery, aerospace and auto value is foreign-owned (more than 84 to 96% foreign in aerospace), limiting sovereign control over allocation, and about 2% of phosphate reserves lie in Western Sahara, a live legal and reputational exposure.

·

Smallholder affordability African smallholder purchasing power limits effective fertilizer demand without subsidy or finance mechanisms, so latent agronomic need does not automatically translate into paid offtake.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Morocco’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

The export base is built for Europe, not Africa. Only about 6.6 per cent of Moroccan exports reach Africa, against 69.3 per cent to Europe. Logistics, contracts and standards are configured for European buyers, and redirecting them is a structural task, not a commercial decision.

05

Fertilizer output depends on imported feedstock. OCP's DAP production relies on imported ammonia, a feedstock vulnerability the audit names directly. The emerging battery chain likewise depends on imported lithium and precursor inputs.

06

The in-Africa production gap is real and long-standing. OCP plants in Nigeria and Ethiopia were originally targeted for 2023 or 2024 and remain not operational at scale. Only smaller blending units are running: Rwanda at around 100 kilotonnes, Nigeria at about 500 kilotonnes across three units, and a Ghana mini-blender in 2025, within roughly 28 blending units continent-wide.

07

Smallholder affordability caps effective demand. African smallholder purchasing power limits effective fertilizer demand absent subsidy or finance mechanisms. Latent need at 22 kg per hectare does not automatically convert into paid offtake.

08

Water scarcity is severe and worsening. Groundwater overdraft constrains both phosphate processing and export agriculture, on an arable base of roughly 85,000 square kilometres. Desalination at Jorf Lasfar mitigates but does not remove the constraint.

09

Energy import dependence sits at about 90 per cent. Despite renewable leadership at 5.4 GW and 45 per cent of installed capacity, Morocco imports roughly 90 per cent of its energy. Power cost and reliability for heavy industry remain live questions.

10

Much of the industrial value is foreign-owned. EV and battery investment and much of the aerospace and automotive value chain is foreign-owned, at between 84 and 96 per cent in aerospace. This limits sovereign control over where output is allocated.

11

Western Sahara exposes the trump-card commodity to legal and reputational risk. Around 2 per cent of Morocco's phosphate reserves lie in Western Sahara, at Phosboucraa or Boucraa, a disputed non-self-governing territory. The audit records this as a reputational and legal exposure that has triggered investor divestment.

12

Intra-African fertilizer volumes are reported imprecisely. OCP reports Africa by revenue share, around 18 per cent in the first half of 2025, rather than tonnage. The cleanest actual volume figure remains 2019's 1.8 million tonnes; the 4 million tonne 2023 figure is a stated commitment, not an audited shipment.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Morocco's Draft 1 bundle rests on a single unambiguous anchor and a wider band of proven but Europe-facing capability. The anchor is phosphate fertilizers, phosphoric acid and the rock beneath them: reserves of roughly 50 billion tonnes, a fully integrated processing chain, world-leading export volumes and an existing continental footprint across 42 countries. Around it sit strong contenders where the manufacturing is real but the trade flow is not yet continental, namely passenger vehicles, wiring, auto parts, canned sardines, frozen cephalopods, tomatoes and citrus. What must be proven is the redirection. OCP must complete and operate downstream blending and production hubs inside African demand centres rather than only shipping from Morocco, must secure non-Moroccan or green ammonia to cut feedstock dependence, must pair supply with farmer-finance or subsidy mechanisms that convert latent demand into effective demand, and must reach the 20 million tonne per year capacity target by 2027. For vehicles and components, AfCFTA rules of origin and African distribution infrastructure must make intra-African sales competitive against European export margins. For processed fish, cold-chain and certification must extend to intra-African routes on sustainably managed stocks. For steel and cement, surplus capacity must be redirected to markets where freight economics work, principally coastal West Africa. For batteries, the gigafactories must first reach operation from 2026, and a meaningful share of output must then be allocated to African markets rather than entirely to Europe.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Morocco is shown 23 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Morocco to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2