Right of Supply — Lesotho

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Retšelisitsoe Matlanyane, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Lesotho · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Matlanyane,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Lesotho — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Lesotho is in this room

Lesotho's strongest defensible position is large, high-value rough diamonds from Letseng, the world's highest average dollar-per-carat kimberlite mine at USD 1,390 per carat in 2024 and uniquely rich in rare Type IIa stones above 100 carats, a structural rarity no other African producer replicates and one that flows reliably to market despite the country's landlocked position. The honest constraint is that this endowment is exported entirely as rough: there is no domestic cutting, polishing or beneficiation capacity, diamond export revenue collapsed 55.8 per cent between 2021-22 and 2025 on weak prices and lab-grown competition, and Gem Diamonds' revised Life of Mine Plan of December 2024 shortened Letseng's operating life to 2035, with no high-value Satellite-pipe ore available until end-2029. Any downstream role for Lesotho is therefore both valuable and time-bound.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Lesotho, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Lesotho

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

17draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Lesotho’s draft bundle. 17 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Large high-value rough diamonds, Raw water bulk transfer. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 continental anchor · 3 strong contender · 4 emerging · 4 aspirational · 4 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Lesotho is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 17 candidate lines proposed for Lesotho below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Lesotho. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Lesotho will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Lesotho will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

17 lines

Lesotho’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Lesotho at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Lesotho’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Lesotho’s own capability audit.

Cut and polished diamonds (HS7102.39)

The audit tiers this GREY and records that there is no domestic cutting, polishing or beneficiation whatsoever; all rough is exported. It is a stated capacity gap, and any downstream hub would be time-bound by Letseng's 2035 mine-life horizon.

Capability inversion

Scoured wool and mohair tops (HS5105)

Tiered GREY with no domestic capacity. The Chinese-built Thaba Bosiu Wool and Mohair Centre operates as an auction and storage facility only, the envisaged scouring plant was never built, and roughly 90 per cent of wool and 58 per cent of mohair are still exported greasy and processed in South Africa via broker BKB.

Raw base, industrial screen

Raw water as freely allocatable continental supply

The audit is explicit that LHWP water is uniquely deliverable and high-demand regionally, but is allocatable only bilaterally to South Africa under the 1986 Treaty and is not freely re-allocatable across the continent. Any continental framing would require an arrangement that does not yet exist.

Incumbency

Hydroelectricity as an export line (HS2716)

Tiered EMERGING. Muela's 72 MW is installed but the country is a net importer, taking 438 GWh, about 45 per cent of consumption, in 2024, and Muela was shut from October 2024 to March 2025 for tunnel maintenance, forcing full import reliance during that window.

Capability inversion

Maize flour and milled products (HS1101)

Tiered GREY on domestic milling described as declining, with low continental demand. Lesotho is a net food importer with 699,049 people food-insecure in FY24/25, a 20 per cent rise on 2023/24.

Scale-matching

Sandstone, medicinal cannabis and other latent lines

The audit's data confidence statement states that sandstone, medicinal cannabis, cut-diamond and scoured-fibre categories rest on thinner evidence and are tiered ASPIRATIONAL or GREY accordingly. Sandstone remains raw blocks with minimal processing.

Raw base, industrial screen

08 · Endowment

What Lesotho actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Lesotho. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Lesotho's productive base rests on a small number of well-defined endowments. Diamonds are the only mineral of consequence, worked at four kimberlite mines: Letseng (Gem Diamonds 70 per cent, Government of Lesotho 30 per cent), Liqhobong (Firestone Diamonds 75 per cent, Government 25 per cent), Mothae (Lucapa Diamond Co.) and Kao (Storm Mountain Diamonds). National output was approximately 1.11 million carats in 2019 and fell to about 696,000 carats in 2024. Letseng recovered 105,012 carats in 2024 at an average of USD 1,390 per carat. There is no domestic cutting, polishing or beneficiation; all rough is exported. Alongside the mines sit bulk water transfers to South Africa under the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, hydropower at Muela (72 MW installed, with up to about 90 MW at high water) and the 30 MW Ramarothole solar scheme at Mafeteng.

The second pillar is animal fibre and labour-intensive apparel. The IWTO recorded in November 2025 that 1.37 million sheep produce 3.6 million kg of raw wool annually in an industry touching the lives of approximately 45,000 people, and Lesotho is the world's second-largest mohair producer at roughly 14 per cent of global output, after South Africa. Manufacturing is dominated by textiles and apparel, the largest private-sector employer, historically organised across some 41 factories concentrated in the Thetsane (Maseru) and Maputsoe industrial estates, with named firms including the Nien Hsing Group, whose Formosa Textile denim mill represented an investment of roughly USD 150 million, alongside Precious Garments, Tzicc Clothing Manufacturers, Maseru-E Textiles, Afri-Expo Textiles and Hippo Knitting. Manufacturing employment stood at about 30,991 in December 2024, down from 45,261 in March 2021.

Comparative advantage, on the audit's own reading, clusters in low-complexity goods. Products with revealed comparative advantage above one comprise rough diamonds (HS7102), men's and women's cotton trousers and suits (HS6203 and HS6204), knit T-shirts (HS6109), greasy wool (HS5101), mohair (HS5102) and bottled or mineral water (HS2201). Over 80 per cent of merchandise exports are textiles and diamonds, and the IMF documents that export concentration has increased over the past decade, signalling a stagnant-to-deteriorating complexity trajectory rather than upgrading. Feasible, adjacency-constrained diversification is narrow: from cut-make-trim apparel toward higher value-added and technical textiles; from greasy fibres toward scoured wool and mohair tops; and, in principle, from rough diamonds toward a cutting and polishing capability that does not currently exist.

The endowment in depth

Minerals reduce to a single commodity of consequence: diamonds. Four kimberlite mines operate — Letšeng (Gem Diamonds 70% / Government of Lesotho 30%), Liqhobong (Firestone Diamonds 75% / GoL 25%), Mothae (Lucapa Diamond Company) and Kao (Storm Mountain Diamonds). National output was roughly 1.11 million carats in 2019 (USGS) but fell to about 696,000 carats in 2024. Letšeng alone recovered 105,012 carats in 2024 for rough revenue of USD 152.8 million (USD 154.2 million total) at an average of USD 1,390 per carat (Gem Diamonds FY2024). Critically, there is no domestic cutting, polishing or beneficiation — all rough is exported, and the government's take runs through a 10% statutory royalty (often negotiated down to ~4%) plus equity dividends. Beyond diamonds only minor clay and bricks (Loti Brick), sandstone and aggregate are produced. The base is contracting: by late 2024 one of the four mines had entered care-and-maintenance, and the Central Bank of Lesotho warns that Liqhobong and Mothae are at risk of permanent closure.

Energy and infrastructure are the binding physical constraints. There is no proven oil or gas. The Muela hydropower station carries 72 MW installed (three 24–30 MW units, up to ~90 MW at high water; LHDA), supplemented by the 30 MW Ramarothole solar plant at Mafeteng. In 2024 national consumption reached 970 GWh, of which only 532 GWh was generated domestically and 438 GWh — some 45% — was imported over the Southern African Power Pool from Eskom (RSA) and EdM (Mozambique); peak demand runs ~160–209 MW, and hydro supplied 99.6% of local electricity in 2022. The pipeline includes Oxbow/Kobong pumped storage, a further 50 MW at Ramarothole and a feasibility-stage 50–400 MW floating-solar scheme on the Katse and Mohale reservoirs, but Muela's October 2024–March 2025 tunnel-maintenance shutdown forced 100% import reliance for that window. Physically the country is a landlocked enclave entirely surrounded by South Africa: 100% of trade transits RSA, the nearest deep-water ports are Durban and Port Elizabeth/Gqeberha, only one short rail spur connects Maseru to the RSA network, and high road-transport costs alongside the ~45% electricity-import dependency are repeatedly cited as the binding competitiveness constraints.

Agriculture is dominated by animal fibres and subsistence cropping. The 2011 WAMPP baseline recorded ~3,320 t greasy wool and ~750 t greasy mohair; the IWTO (19 November 2025) reports 1.37 million sheep producing 3.6 million kg of raw wool annually, in an industry that "touches the lives of approximately 45,000 people." Lesotho is the world's second-largest mohair producer, at ~14% of global output behind South Africa. Trout is farmed in cages on the LHWP reservoirs for export to RSA and Japan; subsistence maize and sorghum dominate cropping, with horticulture expanding under MCC Compact II, and livestock contributes ~4.8% of GDP. The country is a net food importer under acute stress: 699,049 people were food-insecure in FY24/25, a 20% rise on 2023/24 amid El Niño drought, and Prime Minister Matekane declared a food state of disaster on 12 July 2024. Agro-processing is minimal.

The industrial base and workforce are built around AGOA-era apparel. Textiles and apparel form the largest private-sector employer, but manufacturing employment has fallen to ~30,991 (December 2024) from 45,261 (March 2021); historically ~41 garment factories cluster in the Thetsane (Maseru) and Maputsoe estates. Named firms include Nien Hsing Group (whose Formosa Textile denim mill was a ~USD 150 million investment), Precious Garments, Tzicc Clothing Manufacturers, Maseru-E Textiles, Afri-Expo Textiles and Hippo Knitting, with the LNDC administering incentives and zones. The structural gaps are severe — no domestic fabric mill and no garment-washing facility, so factories depend on RSA — and textiles have slipped to ~12% of GDP (2024) from ~21% (2006). The workforce is young and literate (adult literacy ~85%, female exceeding male) with a labour force near 1 million, but official unemployment is 22.5% (youth 29.1%, 2019), apparel skills are confined to cut-make-trim, the textile minimum wage is M2,724/month rising to M3,041 for a trained machine operator (2025/26), and enforcement is thin — roughly 27 labour inspectors for ~33,000 registered businesses.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Lesotho runs one of the least diversified export structures in Southern Africa: over 80% of merchandise exports are textiles and diamonds (IMF), and product concentration has increased over the past decade (IMF Selected Issues 2022), signalling a stagnant-to-deteriorating complexity trajectory rather than upgrading. The RCA>1 basket clusters entirely in low-complexity goods — rough diamonds (HS7102), men's and women's cotton trousers and suits (HS6203/6204), knit T-shirts (HS6109), greasy wool (HS5101), mohair (HS5102) and bottled/mineral water (HS2201). One caution on the record: Lesotho's exact ECI rank could not be extracted from the JavaScript-rendered Harvard Atlas/OEC profiles, and online references to a "132nd" ranking pertain to the WIPO Global Innovation Index 2025 (132/139), not the ECI — the two must not be conflated.

Feasible diversification is narrow and adjacency-constrained under product-space logic: from cut-make-trim apparel toward higher value-added and technical textiles; from greasy fibres toward scoured wool and mohair tops; and, in principle, from rough diamonds toward a cutting/polishing capability that does not currently exist. Each path is structurally bounded by landlocked logistics, a thin skills base, and near-total single-country (RSA) transit dependency.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

The single strongest defensible continental supply position is large, high-value rough diamonds from Letšeng, and it survives the full test rather than resting on raw endowment. Letšeng is the world's highest average dollar-per-carat kimberlite mine (USD 1,390/carat in 2024) and is uniquely rich in rare Type IIa stones above 100 carats; per Gem Diamonds' FY2024 results the year's 10% revenue rise was "mainly driven by the 13 diamonds greater than 100 carats that were sold," and the highest dollar-per-carat achieved for a white rough stone during the year was USD 41,007. The structural rarity of the deposit makes the supply irreplaceable rather than merely cheap — a moat no other African producer replicates — and it is deliverable: the mine is operational, owner-operated since late 2023/2024, holds a 2024 reserve of ~1.165 Mct at a modelled ~USD 1,465/carat, and exports flow reliably despite the landlocked position.

The claim is honestly bounded. Cutting and polishing demand is largely extra-continental (Belgium, UAE, India), so the stones function as a hard-currency anchor and a prime candidate to feed a future African beneficiation hub rather than a continentally consumed good, and no domestic cutting or polishing capacity exists. The cycle is adverse: diamond export revenue collapsed 55.8% between 2022 and 2025 — from ~M4.8 billion (2021–22, ~13% of GDP) to M2.3 billion (2025, ~5.5% of GDP) — on weak global prices and lab-grown competition (CBL), while Gem Diamonds' revised Life of Mine Plan (3 December 2024) shortened Letšeng's operating life to 2035 (from 2039), with no high-value Satellite-pipe ore available until end-2029. The runners-up carry their own limits: raw water via the LHWP is uniquely deliverable and high-demand regionally but allocatable only bilaterally to RSA under the 1986 Treaty, and mohair is a genuine global number-two position yet exported raw and processed in South Africa.

Current reality

Lesotho is a lower-middle-income economy of roughly 2.3 to 2.4 million people with GDP of USD 2.27 billion (2024, World Bank) and GNI per capita of about USD 1,180. Growth was 2.2 per cent in FY23/24, peaked at approximately 2.6 per cent in FY24/25 and is slowing to about 1.4 per cent in FY25/26. The fiscal position is currently strong, with a surplus of 9.0 per cent of GDP in FY24/25, public debt at 56.6 per cent of GDP and gross reserves of about six months of imports, driven by record SACU transfers and renegotiated water royalties. Merchandise exports were approximately USD 829 million in 2023 against imports of about USD 1.72 billion, a structural deficit. Top destinations were South Africa at 53.6 per cent, Belgium at 23.6 per cent and the United States at 18.9 per cent.

The constraints are structural and immediate. Lesotho is a landlocked enclave entirely surrounded by South Africa; 100 per cent of trade transits that single country, with the nearest deep-water ports at Durban and Port Elizabeth or Gqeberha, and one short rail spur linking Maseru to the South African network. National electricity consumption in 2024 was 970 GWh, of which only 532 GWh was generated domestically and 438 GWh, roughly 45 per cent, was imported through the Southern African Power Pool. Two external shocks are live simultaneously: diamond export revenue collapsed 55.8 per cent, from about M4.8 billion in 2021-22 (roughly 13 per cent of GDP) to M2.3 billion in 2025 (roughly 5.5 per cent of GDP), on weak global prices and lab-grown competition; and AGOA preferences lapsed on 30 September 2025, extended only to 31 December 2026, with a 15 per cent reciprocal tariff now applying against 10 per cent for direct competitors Kenya and Eswatini.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 17 candidate lines · will change

Lesotho’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Lesotho’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Lesotho will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Lesotho’s 17 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 2Strong Contender 3Emerging 4Aspirational 4Grey 4

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Auto seat covers labour-intensive components

Diversification pilots · Maturity: Assembly · Competitiveness: Low

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 7.66 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

870810Vehicles; bumpers and parts thereof, for the vehicles of heading no. 8701 to 8705

870821Vehicles; parts of bodies, safety seat belts

870822Vehicles; parts and accessories, front windscreens (windshields), rear windows and other windows specified in subheading

870829Vehicles; parts and accessories, of bodies, other than safety seat belts

870830Vehicle parts; brakes, servo-brakes and parts thereof

870831Mounted brake linings for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons,...

870839Brakes and servo-brakes and parts thereof for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of...

870840Vehicle parts; gear boxes and parts thereof

870850Vehicle parts; drive-axles with differential, whether or not provided with other transmission components, and non-drivin

870860Non-driving axles and parts thereof for tractors, motor vehicles for the transport of ten or...

870870Vehicle parts; road wheels and parts and accessories thereof

870880Vehicle parts; suspension systems and parts thereof (including shock-absorbers)

870891Vehicle parts; radiators and parts thereof

870892Vehicle parts; silencers (mufflers) and exhaust pipes; parts thereof

870893Vehicle parts; clutches and parts thereof

870894Vehicle parts; steering wheels, steering columns and steering boxes; parts thereof

870895Vehicle parts; safety airbags with inflater system; parts thereof

870899Vehicle parts and accessories; n.e.c. in heading no. 8708

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Lesotho imported USD 12.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 2.4 bnSouth Africa USD 1.85 bnAlgeria USD 583.7 mEgypt USD 510.1 mLibya USD 270.2 mNigeria USD 260.2 mTunisia USD 214.6 mGhana USD 148 m

Source: trade.gov · 2024

Low-voltage electrical equipment

Niche assembly circuit breakers · Maturity: Assembly · Competitiveness: Moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 2.98 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

853610Electrical apparatus; fuses, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts

853620Electrical apparatus; automatic circuit breakers, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts

853630Electrical apparatus; for protecting electrical circuits, n.e.c. in heading no. 8536, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 v

853641Electrical apparatus; relays, (for a voltage not exceeding 60 volts)

853649Electrical apparatus; relays, for a voltage exceeding 60 volts

853650Electrical apparatus; switches n.e.c. in heading no. 8536, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts

853661Electrical apparatus; lamp-holders, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts

853669Electrical apparatus; plugs and sockets, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts

853670Connectors for optical fibres, optical fibre bundles or cables

853690Electrical apparatus; n.e.c. in heading no. 8536, for switching or protecting electrical circuits, for a voltage not exc

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Lesotho imported USD 8.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 793.9 mTunisia USD 591 mSouth Africa USD 425.9 mEgypt USD 256.2 mAlgeria USD 116.2 mAngola USD 55.5 mNigeria USD 52.9 mEthiopia USD 46.1 m

Source: OEC; trade.gov · 2022-2024

Hydroelectricity

Muela 72 MW, surplus potential via SAPP · Maturity: Installed but net importer · Competitiveness: High regionally (SAPP)

EMERGING

USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271600Electrical energy

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Lesotho imported USD 44.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: LHDA; IMF · 2024

Large high-value rough diamonds

World's highest avg US$/carat kimberlite mine (Letseng); rare Type IIa stones · Maturity: Raw rough, no cutting/polishing · Competitiveness: Moderate (mainly extra-continental)

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

USD 1.75 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710210Diamonds; whether or not worked, but not mounted or set, unsorted

710221Diamonds; industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710229Diamonds; industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

710231Diamonds; non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710239Diamonds; non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Lesotho imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Botswana USD 970.9 mSouth Africa USD 578.4 mNamibia USD 111.7 mMauritius USD 76 mMorocco USD 5.8 mTunisia USD 3 mLiberia USD 1.2 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Source: Gem Diamonds FY results; USGS · 2024

Cut and polished diamonds

Potential downstream of rough · Maturity: None, capacity gap · Competitiveness: Moderate

GREY

USD 1.75 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710210Diamonds; whether or not worked, but not mounted or set, unsorted

710221Diamonds; industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710229Diamonds; industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

710231Diamonds; non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710239Diamonds; non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

Lesotho imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Botswana USD 970.9 mSouth Africa USD 578.4 mNamibia USD 111.7 mMauritius USD 76 mMorocco USD 5.8 mTunisia USD 3 mLiberia USD 1.2 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Source: importglobals · 2024

Maize flour milled products

Domestic milling · Maturity: Declining · Competitiveness: Low

GREY

USD 1.2 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

110100Wheat or meslin flour

Lesotho imported USD 19.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Sudan USD 338.2 mSomalia USD 158 mEthiopia USD 126.4 mDR Congo USD 109.6 mDjibouti USD 69.8 mMadagascar USD 56.8 mGhana USD 37.5 mSouth Sudan USD 35 m

Source: Volza · 2024

Mens/womens suits outerwear

Apparel cluster skills · Maturity: CMT · Competitiveness: Emerging (AfCFTA)

EMERGING

USD 833.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

620411Suits; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620412Suits; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620413Suits; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620419Suits; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.1 (not knitted or crocheted)

620421Ensembles; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620422Ensembles; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620423Ensembles; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620429Ensembles; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.2 (not knitted or crocheted)

620431Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620432Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620433Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620439Jackets and blazers; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.3 (not knitted or crocheted)

620441Dresses; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620442Dresses; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620443Dresses; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620444Dresses; women's or girls', of artificial fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620449Dresses; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.4 (not knitted or crocheted)

620451Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620452Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620453Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620459Skirts and divided skirts; women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.5 (not knitted or crocheted)

620461Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620462Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620463Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620469Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; women's or girls', of textile materials (other than wool, fine animal hair, cotton or synthetic fibres), (not knitted or crocheted)

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Lesotho imported USD 3.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 262.6 mAlgeria USD 84.9 mLibya USD 61.3 mGhana USD 56.1 mMorocco USD 54.2 mEgypt USD 52.2 mGuinea USD 36.3 mKenya USD 29.8 m

Source: UN Comtrade · 2023

Cotton trousers/denim jeans

AGOA-built CMT cluster, skilled low-cost female labour · Maturity: Cut-make-trim, imported fabric · Competitiveness: Emerging (AfCFTA, RSA)

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 827.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

620311Suits; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620312Suits; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620319Suits; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.1 (not knitted or crocheted)

620321Men's or boys' ensembles of wool or fine animal hair (excluding knitted or crocheted, ski ensembles...

620322Ensembles; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620323Ensembles; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620329Ensembles; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.2 (not knitted or crocheted)

620331Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or crocheted)

620332Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620333Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620339Jackets and blazers; men's or boys', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6203.3 (not knitted or crocheted)

620341Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of wool or fine animal hair (not knitted or croch

620342Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)

620343Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)

620349Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts; men's or boys', of textile materials (other than wool, fine animal hair, cotton or synthetic fibres), (not knitted or crocheted)

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Lesotho imported USD 5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 332.3 mAlgeria USD 72.2 mLibya USD 57.2 mEthiopia USD 43.4 mMorocco USD 37.9 mGhana USD 31.5 mSudan USD 26 mGuinea USD 25.6 m

Source: trade.gov; UN Comtrade · 2023-2024

Knit T-shirts and tops

Established knit factories, low wage · Maturity: CMT, imported yarn/fabric · Competitiveness: Emerging (RSA, SADC)

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 748 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

610910T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of cotton, knitted or crocheted

610990T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crocheted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Lesotho imported USD 2.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 231.5 mMorocco USD 57.3 mSouth Sudan USD 46 mLibya USD 45 mAlgeria USD 41.7 mEgypt USD 38 mGuinea USD 34.7 mGhana USD 29.3 m

Source: UN Comtrade; WITS · 2023

Trout aquaculture

LHWP reservoir cage farming · Maturity: Fresh/frozen · Competitiveness: Low-moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 161.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030211Fish; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhyn

030212Fresh or chilled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta,...

030213Fish; fresh or chilled, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tsch

030214Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0

030219Fish; fresh or chilled, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish off

030221Fish; fresh or chilled, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excl

030222Fish; fresh or chilled, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of s

030223Fish; fresh or chilled, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030224Fish; fresh or chilled, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish o

030229Fish; fresh or chilled, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.2, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offa

030231Fish; fresh or chilled, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edibl

030232Fish; fresh or chilled, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal

030233Fish; fresh or chilled, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030234Fish; fresh or chilled, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030235Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030236Fish; fresh or chilled, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030239Fish; fresh or chilled, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030240Fresh or chilled herrings (Clupea harengus, clupea pallasii)

030241Fish; fresh or chilled, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030242Fish; fresh or chilled, anchovies (Engraulis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030243Fish; fresh or chilled, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030244Fish; fresh or chilled, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030245Fish; fresh or chilled, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030246Fresh or chilled cobia "Rachycentron canadum"

030247Fish; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030249Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030250Fresh or chilled cod (gadus morhua, gadus ogac, gadus macrocephalus)

030251Fish; fresh or chilled, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030252Fish; fresh or chilled, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030253Fish; fresh or chilled, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030254Fish; fresh or chilled, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030255Fish; fresh or chilled, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030256Fish; fresh or chilled, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis),excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030259Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030261Fresh or chilled sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.),...

030262Fresh or chilled haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030264Fresh or chilled mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030265Fresh or chilled dogfish and other sharks

030269Fresh or chilled freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack...

030270Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030271Fish; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030272Fish; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030273Fish; fresh or chilled, Carp (as specified by the WCO.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030274Fish; fresh or chilled, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030279Fish; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030281Fish; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030282Fish; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030283Fish; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030284Fish; fresh or chilled, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030285Fish; fresh or chilled, seabream (Sparidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030289Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in heading 0302, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030290Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030291Fish; fresh or chilled, livers, roes and milt

030292Fish; fresh or chilled, shark fins

030299Fish; fresh or chilled, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Lesotho imported USD 1.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 40.6 mSouth Africa USD 32.6 mMorocco USD 27.9 mGhana USD 19.5 mLibya USD 15.2 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mTunisia USD 3.1 mDR Congo USD 2.4 m

Source: Mining Outlook · 2025

Medicinal cannabis

Licensed cultivation since 2017 · Maturity: Raw/extract · Competitiveness: Emerging globally

GREY

USD 115 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

121110Liquorice roots, fresh or dried, whether or not cut, crushed or powdered

121120Ginseng roots, of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, f

121130Coca leaf; of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh

121140Poppy straw; of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fre

121150Ephedra, of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungicidal or similar purposes, fresh,

121160Bark of African cherry (Prunus africana); of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in pharmacy or for insecticidal, fungic

121190Plants and parts (including seeds and fruits) n.e.c. in heading no. 1211, of a kind used primarily in perfumery, in phar

Lesotho imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Djibouti USD 50.7 mEgypt USD 12.2 mMorocco USD 9.3 mKenya USD 7.5 mSomalia USD 5.6 mAlgeria USD 4.3 mSouth Africa USD 3.8 mSouth Sudan USD 3.4 m

Source: sector reports · 2024

Sandstone dimension stone

Known deposits Lekokoaneng Berea · Maturity: Raw blocks, minimal processing · Competitiveness: Low (RSA construction)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 58.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

251611Granite; crude or roughly trimmed

251612Granite; merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shape

251620Sandstone;. whether or not roughly trimmed, cut, by sawing etc, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square)

251621Sandstone, crude or roughly trimmed (excluding already with the characteristics of setts, curbstones...

251622Sandstone, merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a square or rectangular...

251690Monumental or building stone; n.e.c. in heading no. 2516, whether or not roughly trimmed or merely cut, by sawing or oth

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Lesotho imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 34.3 mTunisia USD 6.5 mEgypt USD 6.2 mSouth Africa USD 4.5 mGambia USD 2.6 mNamibia USD 1.6 mKenya USD 0.5 mBotswana USD 0.3 m

Source: RSEE DOI; Volza · 2024

Wool greasy

Merino smallholder ~3300-3600 t · Maturity: Raw greasy, auctioned via BKB RSA · Competitiveness: Low continentally

EMERGING

USD 46.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

510111Wool; (not carded or combed), greasy (including fleece-washed wool), shorn

510119Wool; (other than shorn), greasy (including fleece-washed wool), not carded or combed

510121Wool; (not carded or combed), degreased, (not carbonised), shorn

510129Wool; (not carded or combed), degreased, (not carbonised), (other than shorn)

510130Wool; (not carded or combed), carbonised

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Lesotho imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 40.2 mMauritius USD 4.3 mMorocco USD 1.3 mTunisia USD 0.4 mLibya USD 0.1 mEthiopia USD 0.1 mLesotho your own imports USD 0.1 m

Lesotho is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: WAMPP; IWTO · 2011-2025

Raw water bulk transfer

LHWP transfer to RSA Vaal; 780 rising to 1270 Mm3/yr · Maturity: Raw bulk · Competitiveness: High regionally

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

USD 44.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

220110Waters; mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor

220190Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and s

Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Lesotho imported USD 0.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 7.4 mSudan USD 5.7 mNamibia USD 4.3 mLibya USD 3.5 mSouth Africa USD 3.3 mCote dIvoire USD 1.6 mMozambique USD 1.5 mMauritius USD 1.3 m

Source: IMF Article IV; LHDA; PMG · 2024-2025

Bottled mineral water

Abundant highland water · Maturity: Bottled, limited · Competitiveness: Moderate regional

EMERGING

USD 44.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

220110Waters; mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor

220190Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and s

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Lesotho imported USD 0.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 7.4 mSudan USD 5.7 mNamibia USD 4.3 mLibya USD 3.5 mSouth Africa USD 3.3 mCote dIvoire USD 1.6 mMozambique USD 1.5 mMauritius USD 1.3 m

Source: UN Comtrade · 2023

Scoured wool and mohair tops

Potential downstream of fibres · Maturity: None domestic, gap · Competitiveness: Low

GREY

USD 32.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

510510Wool; carded

510521Wool; wool tops and other combed wool, in fragments

510529Wool; wool tops and other combed wool, other than in fragments

510531Hair; fine animal hair, carded or combed, of kashmir (cashmere) goats

510539Hair; fine animal hair, carded or combed, other than of kashmir (cashmere) goats

510540Hair; coarse animal hair, carded or combed

Lesotho imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Madagascar USD 21.5 mEgypt USD 7.1 mSouth Africa USD 2.3 mTunisia USD 0.4 mEthiopia USD 0.3 mEswatini USD 0.1 mMali USD 0.1 mAlgeria USD 0.1 m

Source: WAMPP · 2011

Mohair greasy

World 2nd producer ~14% global · Maturity: Raw greasy, processed in RSA · Competitiveness: Low continentally

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 18.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

510210Fine animal hair, neither carded nor combed (excluding wool)

510211Hair; fine animal hair, not carded or combed, of kashmir (cashmere) goats

510219Hair; fine animal hair, not carded or combed, other than of kashmir (cashmere) goats

510220Hair; coarse animal hair, not carded or combed

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Lesotho imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 13.6 mTunisia USD 4.3 mMauritius USD 0.2 m

Source: WAMPP; IWTO · 2011-2025

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Lesotho is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Lesotho buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Lesotho is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 1.70 bn

Lesotho’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Lesotho imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Hydroelectricity	EMERGING	USD 44.2 m	USD 2.24 bn
Maize flour milled products	GREY	USD 19.2 m	USD 1.2 bn
Auto seat covers labour-intensive components	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 12.4 m	USD 7.66 bn
Low-voltage electrical equipment	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 8.1 m	USD 2.98 bn
Cotton trousers/denim jeans	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 5 m	USD 827.3 m
Mens/womens suits outerwear	EMERGING	USD 3.8 m	USD 833.2 m
Knit T-shirts and tops	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 2.4 m	USD 748 m
Trout aquaculture	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 1.2 m	USD 161.4 m
Raw water bulk transfer	CONTINENTAL ANCHOR	USD 0.5 m	USD 44.5 m
Bottled mineral water	EMERGING	USD 0.5 m	USD 44.5 m
Sandstone dimension stone	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.1 m	USD 58.9 m
Wool greasy	EMERGING	USD 0.1 m	USD 46.8 m
Large high-value rough diamonds	CONTINENTAL ANCHOR	USD 0 m	USD 1.75 bn
Cut and polished diamonds	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 1.75 bn

Left-hand column: what Lesotho itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Lesotho’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 17 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Lesotho’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Lesotho. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Lesotho’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Lesotho’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01South AfricaUSD 4.7 bn

02MoroccoUSD 3.63 bn

03BotswanaUSD 2.1 bn

04TunisiaUSD 1.05 bn

05AlgeriaUSD 941.1 m

06EgyptUSD 883.8 m

07LibyaUSD 456 m

08SudanUSD 375.6 m

09NigeriaUSD 353.7 m

10GhanaUSD 321.9 m

11NamibiaUSD 233.6 m

12EthiopiaUSD 216.3 m

13MozambiqueUSD 213 m

14Burkina FasoUSD 196.1 m

15ZimbabweUSD 180.1 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Lesotho. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Lesotho would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Lesotho to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

A diamond beneficiation ladder

Establish a domestic or regional cutting/polishing and certification hub — capacity that is currently zero — to capture downstream value; it requires security, skills and capital, and is time-bound by Letšeng's 2035 mine-life horizon.

Water monetised beyond the bilateral treaty

A framework recognising water and hydropower as allocatable continental supply beyond the 1986 RSA treaty, plus completion of Polihali (Phase II, now expected ~2029) lifting transfer from 780 to over 1,270 Mm³/yr.

Power self-sufficiency and SAPP export

Realise Oxbow/Kobong pumped storage, the Ramarothole +50 MW expansion and floating solar to flip Lesotho from net electricity importer to SAPP exporter.

Domestic fibre processing

Build functioning scouring and spinning: the Chinese-built Thaba Bosiu Wool & Mohair Centre operates only as an auction/storage facility, the envisaged scouring plant was never built, and ~90% of wool and ~58% of mohair are still exported greasy and processed in RSA via broker BKB.

Textile pivot and upstream inputs

Shift markets toward AfCFTA/RSA and away from US dependency while developing a knit-fabric mill, washing facilities and upstream inputs to deepen value-add — now a strategic imperative after the tariff shock.

Binding transit and dry-port corridors

Negotiate binding transit guarantees and bonded dry-port corridors with RSA to lower the cost of the landlocked position.

The binding constraints

Landlocked enclave, single-country transit 100% of trade transits one country, South Africa, with no independent port or corridor — an extreme structural vulnerability with no near-term remedy.

Power import dependency ~45% of electricity was imported in 2024 (438 GWh) and recurrent drought curtails Muela hydro, leaving the country a net importer despite its hydro endowment.

Thin logistics High transport costs, a thin rail link, sparse LPI data and dependence on Durban and Port Elizabeth compound the enclave position.

Foreign ownership, shallow capital The domestic capital base is small; textile FDI is foreign-owned (Taiwanese, Chinese, RSA) with negligible Basotho ownership, and the diamond mines are foreign-controlled.

Governance and corruption The Transparency International CPI 2024 score is 37/100, rank 99 of 180 — down 12 points since 2014, the sharpest decline in Sub-Saharan Africa — LHWP Phase II carries a documented corruption history, and labour inspection is severely under-resourced.

Trade-policy shock The US reciprocal tariff sits at 15% (down from a threatened 50%), AGOA is extended only to December 2026, and competitors Kenya and Eswatini face 10% — an existential threat to ~12,000–40,000 textile jobs that prompted a two-year state of disaster over textile-sector unemployment.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Lesotho’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Every trade corridor transits a single country. Lesotho is a landlocked enclave entirely surrounded by South Africa, with no independent port or corridor. The audit records this as an extreme structural vulnerability with no near-term remedy, and identifies binding transit guarantees and bonded dry-port corridors with South Africa as a precondition for any expanded supply role.

The state is a net importer of power despite a hydro endowment. Of 970 GWh consumed in 2024, only 532 GWh was generated domestically and 438 GWh was imported through the Southern African Power Pool from Eskom and EdM. Recurrent drought curtails Muela hydro, and import dependency is repeatedly cited as a binding competitiveness constraint.

The diamond base is contracting on both price and mine life. Diamond export revenue collapsed 55.8 per cent between 2021-22 and 2025 on weak global prices and lab-grown competition. National output fell to about 696,000 carats in 2024, one of four mines entered care and maintenance, and the Central Bank warns that Liqhobong and Mothae are at risk of permanent closure.

The textile model is exposed to a live trade-policy shock. AGOA preferences lapsed on 30 September 2025 and were extended only to 31 December 2026, with a 15 per cent reciprocal tariff now applying against 10 per cent for competitors Kenya and Eswatini. The audit describes this as an existential threat to roughly 12,000 to 40,000 textile jobs, and the government has declared a two-year state of disaster over textile-sector unemployment.

Value capture is shallow and the industrial chain is incomplete. Apparel operates on a cut-make-trim basis with imported fabric and yarn. There is no domestic fabric mill and no garment-washing facility, so factories rely on South Africa, raising cost and lead times. Textiles have fallen to about 12 per cent of GDP in 2024 from roughly 21 per cent in 2006.

Ownership and capital sit largely outside the country. The domestic capital base is small; textile FDI is foreign-owned, Taiwanese, Chinese and South African, with negligible Basotho ownership, and the diamond mines are foreign-controlled. Government take on diamonds runs through a 10 per cent statutory royalty, often negotiated to about 4 per cent, plus equity dividends.

Governance and skills capacity are deteriorating or thin. Transparency International's CPI 2024 scores Lesotho 37 out of 100, ranked 99 of 180, down 12 points since 2014, the sharpest decline in Sub-Saharan Africa. LHWP Phase II carries a documented corruption history, labour inspection runs at roughly 27 inspectors for some 33,000 registered businesses, and TVET capacity is limited with apparel skills confined to cut-make-trim.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Lesotho's Draft 1 bundle rests on two continental anchors, large high-value rough diamonds and bulk raw water from the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, supported by three strong contenders in greasy mohair, cotton trousers and denim, and knit tops. Each of these is real but shallow in beneficiation terms: the diamonds leave as rough, the mohair and wool are scoured and processed in South Africa via broker BKB, and the apparel cluster operates cut-make-trim on imported fabric and yarn. What must be proven is whether the state can convert a favourable fiscal moment, record SACU transfers and renegotiated water royalties projected at about 13 per cent of GDP in FY25, into the missing industrial links the audit names: a cutting, polishing and certification capability that currently has zero base; functioning domestic scouring and spinning to replace the Thaba Bosiu centre's auction-and-storage function; a knit-fabric mill and washing facilities to deepen apparel value-add and pivot markets toward AfCFTA and South Africa; and the Oxbow and Kobong pumped storage, Ramarothole expansion and floating solar needed to move the country from net importer to SAPP exporter. All of it is bounded by a single transit dependency on South Africa, and all of it must be sequenced against the 2035 Letseng horizon and the December 2026 expiry of AGOA cover.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Lesotho is shown 17 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Lesotho to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Lesotho stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Lesotho?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Lesotho’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Lesotho?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.