Right of Supply — Liberia

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Augustine Kpehe Ngafuan, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Liberia · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Ngafuan,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Liberia — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Liberia is in this room

Liberia's strongest endowment is iron ore and, since June 2025, high-grade iron-ore concentrate under HS 2601. ArcelorMittal Liberia dedicated West Africa's first iron-ore concentrator that month, upgrading 35 to 37 per cent iron hematite into magnetite concentrate exceeding 66 per cent iron; realised national output remains around four million tonnes, while the operator's own stated target of fifteen and ultimately twenty million tonnes is a forward expansion aim rather than capacity in place. This is the only operating beneficiation step of meaningful scale anywhere in the Liberian economy, and it is served by the sub-region's only operational heavy-haul railway, the 243 kilometre Yekepa to Buchanan line, feeding a dedicated export port. The honest constraint is equally clear: Africa imports finished steel rather than iron ore, so the continental prize depends on African DRI and steelmaking capacity that Liberia itself does not yet possess; value capture sits with the concessionaire rather than the state; and dependable domestic generation of around 93 MW, with dry-season hydro as low as 10 MW against peak demand of about 142 MW, gates any move into energy-intensive processing.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Liberia, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Liberia

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

17draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Liberia’s draft bundle. 17 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Gold (dore), Iron ore & high-grade concentrate, Natural rubber (RSS, TSR/crumb). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 3 strong contender · 5 emerging · 9 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Liberia is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 17 candidate lines proposed for Liberia below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Liberia. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Liberia will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Liberia will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

17 lines

Liberia’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Liberia at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Liberia’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Liberia’s own capability audit.

Ship registry tonnage as supply capability

The Liberian registry is the world's largest by gross tonnage, recorded at 246.5 million GT with 5,052 ships and around 16 per cent of the world fleet in July 2023, but the audit is explicit that this generates government services revenue and is not a goods-supply capability. Vessel registrations surface in trade data as massive exports and imports of ships under HS 89; these are registry artefacts, not genuine goods flows, and all goods-supply analysis strips out HS 89.

Services, not goods · trade-data artefact

Cement (grey), HS 2523

CEMENCO operates a grinding plant in Monrovia that grinds imported clinker, with mill capacity raised to around 0.5 million tonnes and roughly 60 employees; there is no clinker or kiln capacity, and Fouta Cement is building a further 0.35 million tonne per year grinding plant. The audit rates continental demand high regionally but records Liberia as domestic-deficit with no export scale.

Capability inversion · grinding only, no kiln

Tyres (HS 4011) and rubber gloves or dipped goods (HS 4015)

Continental demand is rated very high for tyres and high for dipped goods, and the domestic rubber and latex-concentrate feedstock at Harbel exists, but the beneficiation stage for both is recorded as none, with no plant. The audit marks the tyre entry's source as capability absent.

Raw base · industrial screen

Direct-reduced iron / sponge iron, HS 7203

ArcelorMittal is exploring DR-grade concentrate and power is being added, and the audit rates the prize as large because DRI feeds African steel, but the beneficiation stage is none and no DRI plant exists. The audit states plainly that no DRI or steelmaking exists in Liberia.

Raw base · industrial screen

Cocoa paste and butter, HS 1803 and 1804

The audit records the basis of advantage as endowment logic only, with no grinding capacity and no processing stage. Cocoa itself is around 20,000 tonnes in 2023, exported mostly as raw beans to the Netherlands and Indonesia.

Capability inversion · no grinding capacity

Liberia as Africa's designated natural rubber supplier

Liberia's rubber processing at Harbel is real and established, but Côte d'Ivoire dwarfs Liberia, producing around 1.4 to 1.7 million tonnes at some 73 to 77 per cent of African output against Liberia's roughly 6.3 per cent. The audit states this weakens Liberia's claim to be the continent's designated rubber supplier, leaving rubber as runner-up rather than trump card.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Liberia actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Liberia. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Liberia's productive base rests on three pillars: world-class iron ore in the Nimba range, the continent's third-largest natural rubber industry, and a globally dominant ship registry that is a services-revenue phenomenon rather than a goods-supply capability. ArcelorMittal Liberia operates the Tokadeh and Mount Gangra deposits under a 2005 Mineral Development Agreement. Production was 4.4 million tonnes in 2022 on USGS figures, and national iron-ore exports recorded by LEITI's sixteenth report were 4,002,474 tonnes in 2023. Older reserve estimates include Western Cluster deposits of roughly 80 million tonnes at 51 per cent iron at Mano River, around 50 million tonnes at 68 per cent iron at Bomi Hills, and about 900 million tonnes at 37 per cent iron at Bea Mountain.

The decisive structural fact is recent. In June 2025 ArcelorMittal dedicated West Africa's first iron-ore concentrator, designed to upgrade lower-grade hematite ore containing 35 to 37 per cent iron into a premium magnetite concentrate exceeding 66 per cent iron content. ArcelorMittal's own stated expansion target is to lift output from five million tonnes per annum to fifteen million tonnes initially, with an aim of twenty million tonnes; these are the operator's forward figures and remain indicative rather than realised, against measured volumes of roughly four million tonnes. Until that point Liberia exported iron ore essentially raw. The Mines Ministry projects national output of 25 to 30 million tonnes once Cavalla, Westcrest, Zodiac and Bao Chico come online, though that is a government target rather than realised output. Deliverability rests on the 243 kilometre Yekepa to Buchanan heavy-haul line, the only operational heavy-haul railway in the sub-region, feeding a dedicated and recently upgraded export port at Buchanan.

Beyond iron ore, Liberia produced approximately 114,000 tonnes of natural rubber in 2024, ranking third in Africa with roughly a 6.3 per cent share. Firestone and Bridgestone's Harbel estate is the world's largest contiguous rubber plantation and runs the largest latex-concentrate operation in West Africa, producing ribbed smoked sheet and crumb rubber, ISCC PLUS certified as of 2024, with Socfin estates at Liberia Agricultural Company and Salala Rubber adding capacity. Rubber accounted for 54.9 per cent of agricultural exports in 2023. In gold, Bea Mountain Mining Corporation at the New Liberty mine exported 12,146 kilogrammes in 2023, 56.3 per cent of extractive exports, and operates an on-site smelter producing gold doré sold under a tripartite agreement to a single Swiss refinery. Both of Liberia's strongest positions were built by long-horizon anchor-investor concession models, and both are durable precisely because they are foreign-capital, infrastructure-heavy and export-integrated.

The endowment in depth

Liberia's mineral endowment is anchored by world-class iron ore in the Nimba range, where ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML) operates the Tokadeh and Mount Gangra deposits under a 2005 Mineral Development Agreement. National iron-ore exports recorded by LEITI were 4,002,474 t in 2023, against USGS production of 4.4 Mt in 2022; AML's own reported line-item output collapsed from 471 t in 2022 to 70 t in 2023 during the Phase II construction shutdown. Gold is the largest extractive earner by value: national gold exports were 12,379 kg in 2023, of which Bea Mountain Mining Corporation (New Liberty mine, Avesoro) alone exported 12,146 kg valued at US$653.6 million — 56.3% of extractive exports and 72% of mining exports — with production having risen from 141,342 oz (2020) to 376,754 oz (2022) and an on-site smelter producing doré sold under a tripartite agreement to a single Swiss refinery. MNG Gold (Kokoya) and Pasofino/Dugbe (a 3.3 Moz M&I resource in development) are the other gold names. Diamonds are alluvial and artisanal only, at 56,838 carats in 2023, with Liberia a Kimberley Process participant. Older reserve estimates record Western Cluster deposits of ~80 Mt @51% Fe (Mano River), ~50 Mt @68% Fe (Bomi Hills) and ~900 Mt @37% Fe (Bea Mountain), while cement clinker, barite and undeveloped bauxite, manganese, rutile, ilmenite and kyanite occurrences are noted but unquantified, and Chinese geochemical surveys have flagged exploratory-only lithium targets.

Energy is a binding constraint rather than an endowment strength. Total installed generation is ~126 MW, of which only ~93 MW was operational per LERC's 2023 report. The anchor is Mount Coffee hydro at 88 MW installed (4×22 MW), rehabilitated in 2018, but as a run-of-river plant its dependable dry-season capacity falls to only ~10 MW; Bushrod Island HFO thermal offers 38 MW installed but 12–16 MW actual. Imports via the 225 kV CLSG interconnector rose from 27 MW (2023) to ~50 MW (2024), even as peak demand jumped from 92 to ~142 MW in a single year. Around 70% of supply is renewable (hydro and solar), but electricity access remains very low and load-shedding chronic. There is no oil or gas production — offshore exploration only, with TotalEnergies and Oranto blocks ratified in 2025 — and no refining, leaving power a hard gate on any energy-intensive processing.

In agriculture, forestry and fisheries the standout is natural rubber: Liberia produced ~114,000 t in 2024, ranking third in Africa with a ~6.3% share, far behind Côte d'Ivoire (~1.4–1.7 Mt, ~73–77% of African output). Firestone/Bridgestone's Harbel estate is the world's largest contiguous rubber plantation and runs the largest latex-concentrate operation in West Africa, producing ribbed smoked sheet (RSS) and crumb rubber and ISCC PLUS certified as of 2024, with Socfin estates (Liberia Agricultural Company; Salala Rubber) adding capacity; rubber was 54.9% of agricultural exports in 2023. Oil palm sits under Golden Veroleum (Sinoe/Grand Kru) and Equatorial Palm Oil concessions — crude palm oil plus kernel oil were 6.12% of extractive exports in 2023 — but planting has badly lagged concession targets and only small mills (8 t and 30 t) exist with minimal refining. Cocoa output was ~20,000 t in 2023 (exports ~US$55 million, mostly raw beans to the Netherlands and Indonesia); timber round-log production was 661,958 m³ in 2023 but only 98,426 m³ was exported (US$4.3 million, mostly to China and India), with several forestry firms closed. Rice, the staple, is heavily import-dependent, and fisheries are coastal and artisanal with limited industrial processing.

The existing industrial base is among the thinnest in Africa: manufacturing value added is ~3.3% of GDP (IMF, 2020), and although industry-including-construction is ~23% of GDP that figure is mining-driven. In cement, CEMENCO (a Heidelberg Materials subsidiary, established 1968) operates a Monrovia grinding plant (mill capacity raised to ~0.5 Mt, ~60 employees) that grinds imported clinker with no kiln capacity, while Fouta Cement is building a 0.35 Mt/yr grinding plant with a US$21 million IFC package; beyond cement the base is light consumer goods (brewing, basic plastics) for the domestic market, the Buchanan SEZ remains only a plan, and UNIDO's Competitive Industrial Performance Index does not rank Liberia at all. Human capital is low-cost but very low-skilled, with sector-specific clusters existing only around the concessions — Firestone's training hospital and schools, and AML's technical workforce of ~1,000 permanent post-Phase II jobs — and no specialised manufacturing skill cluster. Infrastructure is dominated by the Freeport of Monrovia (APM Terminals, 25-year concession from 2011; ~200,000 TEU capacity, handling ~160,000 TEU/yr and >90% of import cargo) and by AML's dedicated iron-ore Port of Buchanan; the 243 km Yekepa–Buchanan heavy-haul line is the only operational heavy-haul railway in the sub-region, and Liberia's House ratified a ~US$1.8 billion 25-year concession in December 2025 granting Ivanhoe Atlantic (formerly HPX) rail/port access to evacuate Guinean ore — though Guinea has not authorised transit — against a Logistics Performance Index of 2.4 (2022).

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Liberia sits near the global floor of economic complexity: the OEC reports an ECI of −1.44, ranked 126 of roughly 145 economies for 2023, and older Harvard Atlas figures (HS methodology, 2021) place it even lower at approximately −2.44 with a strongly negative Complexity Outlook Index (≈ −1.23), meaning very few complex products lie "near" its current capabilities. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) is concentrated entirely in primary commodities — iron ore, gold, natural rubber, crude palm oil and vegetable fats, cocoa, tropical logs and rough diamonds — with about 68% of exports raw or unprocessed (WITS, 2023); the negative COI signals that the existing base offers few short adjacencies into complex manufacturing.

A critical caution is that Liberian goods-trade statistics are heavily contaminated by the flag-of-convenience ship registry, the world's largest by gross tonnage at 246.5 million GT and 5,052 ships (~16% of the world fleet, Clarksons Research, July 2023). Vessel registrations surface in the data as massive "exports/imports" of ships under HS 89 — for example "passenger and cargo ships 62.6% of imports" (OEC 2022) — and a known 2024 vessel-registry structural anomaly distorts that year specifically. These are registry artefacts, not genuine goods flows; registry revenue is correctly classified as a service, not a supplyable product, and all goods-supply analysis must strip out HS 89.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Liberia's single most defensible continental-supply position is iron ore and high-grade iron-ore concentrate (HS 2601), and the case rests on combined criteria rather than endowment alone. On input base, the Nimba range is genuinely world-class and now joined by a wave of new producers targeting 25–30 Mt nationally once Cavalla, Westcrest, Zodiac and Bao Chico come online (a Mines Ministry target, not realised output). On processing, the decisive fact is that AML dedicated West Africa's first iron-ore concentrator in June 2025, upgrading 35–37% Fe hematite into magnetite concentrate exceeding 66% Fe and lifting output from five million tonnes per annum toward 15 Mt initially and a stated 20 Mt by end-2025 — the only operating beneficiation step of meaningful scale anywhere in the Liberian economy, and a step ahead of most West African peers who export raw ore. On competitiveness and deliverability, Liberia possesses the sub-region's only operational heavy-haul railway, the 243 km Yekepa–Buchanan line, feeding a dedicated and recently upgraded export port — a genuine, hard-to-replicate logistics moat that, in a 54-country allocation, distinguishes Liberia from African ore exporters that ship raw.

The honest vulnerability is continental demand: Africa imports finished steel, not iron ore, so the substitution prize is realised only if African DRI and steelmaking grow and buy Liberian DR-grade concentrate — which in turn requires Liberia to climb a ladder (DRI, HS 7203) it does not yet occupy. Value capture sits with ArcelorMittal rather than the state; output is volatile, with AML's reported line-item output falling from 471 t in 2022 to 70 t in 2023 during construction while national exports held near 4 Mt; and the Guinea-transit corridor that would amplify volumes is politically blocked, with Guinea completing its own Trans-Guinean railway and Morébaya port under Simandou. The two runners-up qualify the picture: natural rubber in TSR/crumb and latex-concentrate form (HS 4001) rests on real, established processing at Harbel but is dwarfed by Côte d'Ivoire (~73–77% versus ~6.3% of African output), while gold doré (HS 7108) is large by value and refined domestically to doré yet globally fungible with a limited intra-African substitution rationale.

Current reality

Liberia is a small, low-income, resource-dependent coastal economy of roughly US$4.75 billion in GDP in 2024 and a population of 5,612,817. Its manufacturing base is among the thinnest in Africa, with manufacturing value added at approximately 3.3 per cent of GDP on IMF 2020 figures, and its economic complexity sits near the global floor, with an OEC Economic Complexity Index of minus 1.44, ranked 126 of around 145 for 2023. Industry including construction is around 23 per cent of GDP, but that figure is mining-driven rather than manufacturing. Revealed comparative advantage is concentrated in primary commodities: iron ore, gold, natural rubber, crude palm oil and vegetable fats, cocoa, tropical logs and rough diamonds. About 68 per cent of exports are raw or unprocessed. A strongly negative Complexity Outlook Index indicates the existing export base offers few short adjacencies into complex manufacturing.

Energy is a binding constraint. Total installed generation is around 126 MW, of which only about 93 MW was operational per the 2023 regulator report. The anchor, Mount Coffee hydro at 88 MW installed, is a run-of-river plant with dependable dry-season capacity of only around 10 MW. Bushrod Island heavy-fuel-oil thermal has 38 MW installed against 12 to 16 MW actual. Peak demand rose from 92 MW to about 142 MW in a single year, with imports via the 225 kV CLSG interconnector rising from 27 MW in 2023 to around 50 MW in 2024. There is no oil or gas production, no refining, and offshore activity is exploration only. Intra-African export orientation is negligible: principal destinations are European and Asian, with the United States the main rubber buyer. The honest headline is that Liberia is an endowment economy which, for the first time, performs one genuine beneficiation step at scale.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 17 candidate lines · will change

Liberia’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Liberia’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Liberia will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Liberia’s 17 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 3Emerging 5Aspirational 9

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Crude palm oil

GVL/EPO concessions; agro-climatic fit · Maturity: Raw/intermediate; small mills · Competitiveness: High; Africa large net importer

EMERGING

USD 6.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151110Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151190Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 35.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.32 bnKenya USD 838.9 mEthiopia USD 491.4 mSouth Africa USD 462 mDjibouti USD 451.6 mUganda USD 311.4 mMozambique USD 250.1 mSomalia USD 201.9 m

Source: LEITI; Mongabay · 2023

Tyres

Domestic rubber feedstock · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: Very high; Africa imports tyres

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.59 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

401110Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)

401120Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorries

401130Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on aircraft

401140Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motorcycles

401150Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on bicycles

401161Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401162Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401163Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401169Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread (excluding of a kind...

401170Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on agricultural or forestry vehicles and machines

401180Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on construction, mining or industrial handling vehicles and machines

401190Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on light commercial vehicles

401191New pneumatic tyres, of rubber, with lug, herringbone or similar treads, of the type used for...

401192Pneumatic tyres, of rubber, new, of a kind used on agricultural or forestry vehicles and machines...

401193Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, of a kind used on construction or industrial handling vehicles...

401194Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, of a kind used on construction or industrial handling vehicles...

401199Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber (excluding having a "herring-bone" or similar tread and pneumatic...

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 9.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 737.4 mEgypt USD 586.2 mMorocco USD 419.8 mAlgeria USD 287.7 mLibya USD 256.7 mGhana USD 178.7 mNigeria USD 174 mTanzania USD 170.9 m

Source: papaverAI · 2026

Gold (dore)

Bea Mountain 12.1 t (2023) US$653.6m; on-site smelter · Maturity: Intermediate (dore) · Competitiveness: Low intra-African substitution

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: LEITI; MME · 2023/2025

Cement (grey)

CEMENCO + Fouta grinding · Maturity: Grinding only (imports clinker) · Competitiveness: High regionally; domestic-deficit

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)

252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured

252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured

252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers

252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 32.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: Global Cement; IFC · 2024

Iron ore & high-grade concentrate

World-class Nimba endowment; West Africa's first concentrator >66% Fe (Jun 2025); dedicated rail+port · Maturity: Raw to intermediate (concentrate) · Competitiveness: Moderate; Africa imports steel not ore, contingent on African steelmaking

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated

260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)

260120Iron pyrites; roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: ArcelorMittal SEC 6-K; LEITI; USGS · 2025/2023

Sawnwood/processed wood

FDA processing incentive · Maturity: Minimal · Competitiveness: Moderate regional construction

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...

440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san

440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length

440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))

440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le

440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise

440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or

440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm

440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...

440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or

440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm

440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 9 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 728.6 mAlgeria USD 312.7 mMorocco USD 287.1 mSouth Africa USD 114.3 mLibya USD 46.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.3 mSenegal USD 36.2 m

Source: LEITI/FAO · 2023

Rough diamonds

Alluvial; 56,838 carats; KP member · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Marginal

EMERGING

USD 1.75 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710210Diamonds; whether or not worked, but not mounted or set, unsorted

710221Diamonds; industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710229Diamonds; industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

710231Diamonds; non-industrial, unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted, but not mounted or set

710239Diamonds; non-industrial, (other than unworked or simply sawn, cleaved or bruted), but not mounted or set

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 1.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Botswana USD 970.9 mSouth Africa USD 578.4 mNamibia USD 111.7 mMauritius USD 76 mMorocco USD 5.8 mTunisia USD 3 mLiberia your own imports USD 1.2 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Liberia is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: LEITI; GIA · 2023

Rubber gloves/dipped goods

Latex-concentrate feedstock at Harbel · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: High (health sector)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 221 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

401511Rubber surgical gloves

401512Rubber; vulcanised (other than hard rubber), gloves, of a kind used for medical, surgical, dental or veterinary purposes

401519Rubber; vulcanised (other than hard rubber), gloves, mittens and mitts other than surgical gloves

401590Rubber; vulcanised (other than hard rubber), articles of apparel and clothing accessories (other than gloves, mittens an

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 33.2 mEgypt USD 22 mEthiopia USD 20.2 mMorocco USD 17.5 mTanzania USD 14.7 mKenya USD 14.2 mZimbabwe USD 12 mMozambique USD 7.3 m

Source: papaverAI · 2026

Palm kernel oil/oilcake

Palm by-product · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 166.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151311Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151319Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modi

151321Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151329Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemic

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 41.2 mSouth Africa USD 36.7 mSudan USD 16 mKenya USD 15.9 mTunisia USD 13.1 mDjibouti USD 8.9 mMorocco USD 7.1 mAlgeria USD 6.4 m

Source: LEITI · 2023

Natural rubber (RSS, TSR/crumb)

3rd-largest African producer ~114k t; Firestone Harbel processing · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate-high; feeds African tyre/glove industries

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 163.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

400110Rubber; natural rubber latex, whether or not pre-vulcanised, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip

400121Rubber; natural (excluding latex), in smoked sheets

400122Rubber; technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (excluding latex and

400129Rubber; natural (excluding latex, technically specified natural rubber and smoked sheets), in primary forms or in plates

400130Balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums; in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 13.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 67.7 mEgypt USD 47.3 mLiberia your own imports USD 13.4 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mTunisia USD 5.9 mUganda USD 5 mNigeria USD 4.3 mEthiopia USD 3.3 m

Liberia is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: IndexBox/FAO; LEITI · 2024/2023

Tropical hardwood logs

662k m3 produced (2023) · Maturity: Raw logs · Competitiveness: Moderate; mostly extra-African

EMERGING

USD 125.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

440310Wood in the rough, treated with paint, stains, creosote or other preservatives (excluding rough-cut...

440311Wood; coniferous species, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared; treated with pai

440312Wood; non-coniferous species, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared; treated with

440320Coniferous wood in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared...

440321Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squ

440322Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squ

440323Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or

440324Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or

440325Wood; coniferous species n.e.c. in headings 4403.21 or 4403.23, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood

440326Wood; coniferous species n.e.c in headings 4403.22 or 4403.24, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood,

440341Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau

440342Wood, tropical; teak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440349Wood, tropical; other than dark red meranti, light red meranti meranti bakau and teak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440391Wood; oak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440392Beech "Fagus spp." in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared...

440393Wood; of beech (Fagus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which the smallest cross-sectional dimension is 15 cm or more

440394Wood; of beech (Fagus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which any cross-sectional dimension is less than 15 cm

440395Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which the smallest cross-sectional dimension is 15 cm or more

440396Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which any cross-sectional dimension is less than 15 cm

440397Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440398Wood; of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440399Wood; in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, n.e.c. in heading no. 4403

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Liberia imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 29.6 mBotswana USD 13.5 mRwanda USD 10.9 mAlgeria USD 8.8 mNamibia USD 8.2 mZambia USD 7.1 mTanzania USD 6.2 mSouth Africa USD 6 m

Source: LEITI · 2023

Direct-reduced iron/sponge iron

AML exploring DR-grade concentrate; power added · Maturity: None (no DRI plant) · Competitiveness: High; feeds African steel

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 74 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

720310Ferrous products; obtained by direct reduction of iron ore, in lumps, pellets or similar forms

720390Ferrous products; spongy ferrous products and iron having a minimum purity by weight of 99.94%, in lumps, pellets or sim

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 39.5 mKenya USD 13 mMorocco USD 12.2 mZambia USD 1.7 mSudan USD 1.6 mMauritius USD 1.5 mMadagascar USD 1.3 mCongo USD 1 m

Source: GMK Center; ArcelorMittal · 2025

Cocoa paste/butter

Endowment logic; no grinding · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: High

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 61.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180310Cocoa; paste, not defatted

180320Cocoa; paste, wholly or partly defatted

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 21 mEgypt USD 18.9 mAlgeria USD 13.7 mMorocco USD 6.2 mTunisia USD 0.7 mSudan USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 mLibya USD 0.1 m

Source: FAO · 2023

Crushed stone/aggregates

Domestic quarrying · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 51.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

251710Pebbles, gravel, broken or crushed stone; of a kind commonly used for concrete aggregates, for road metalling or for rai

251720Macadam of slag, dross or similar industrial waste; whether or not incorporating the materials in Tariff item 2517.10.00

251730Tarred macadam

251741Stones; of marble, in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated

251749Stones; of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Senegal USD 15.6 mCameroon USD 5.1 mTunisia USD 4.8 mMorocco USD 4.4 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mEgypt USD 2.2 mMauritius USD 2.1 mAngola USD 1.8 m

Source: USGS · 2019

Cocoa beans

~20k t (2023); Ivorian-border belt · Maturity: Raw beans · Competitiveness: High; African grinding demand rising

EMERGING

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: FAO · 2023

Cassava/garri

Major domestic staple · Maturity: Informal · Competitiveness: Low cross-border

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 20.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

071410Vegetable roots and tubers; manioc (cassava), with high starch or inulin content, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, wheth

071420Vegetable roots and tubers; sweet potatoes, with high starch or inulin content, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether

071430Vegetable roots and tubers; yams (Dioscorea spp.) with high starch or inulin content, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, w

071440Vegetable roots and tubers; taro (Colocasia spp.) with high starch or inulin content, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, w

071450Vegetable roots and tubers; yautia (Xanthosoma spp.) with high starch or inulin content, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried

071490Vegetable roots and tubers; arrowroot, salep, Jerusalem artichokes and similar roots and tubers (not manioc, sweet potat

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Liberia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Rwanda USD 6.8 mUganda USD 2.5 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 mSomalia USD 1.5 mMali USD 1.2 mGhana USD 0.7 mNiger USD 0.7 mCote dIvoire USD 0.6 m

Source: WRM · 2013

Latex concentrate

Largest latex-concentrate operation in West Africa (Harbel) · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate; dipped-goods/glove feedstock

EMERGING

USD 19.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

400110Rubber; natural rubber latex, whether or not pre-vulcanised, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Liberia imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 6.9 mAlgeria USD 2.2 mUganda USD 1.6 mNigeria USD 1.5 mEthiopia USD 1.4 mSouth Africa USD 1.3 mKenya USD 1.3 mGhana USD 1.1 m

Source: papaverAI; Firestone · 2026

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Liberia is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Liberia buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Liberia is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 2.15 bn

Liberia’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Liberia imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Crude palm oil	EMERGING	USD 35.7 m	USD 6.9 bn
Cement (grey)	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 32.7 m	USD 2.9 bn
Natural rubber (RSS, TSR/crumb)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 13.4 m	USD 163.9 m
Tyres	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 9.3 m	USD 4.59 bn
Rough diamonds	EMERGING	USD 1.2 m	USD 1.75 bn
Tropical hardwood logs	EMERGING	USD 0.6 m	USD 125.8 m
Latex concentrate	EMERGING	USD 0.3 m	USD 19.5 m
Rubber gloves/dipped goods	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.2 m	USD 221 m
Sawnwood/processed wood	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.1 m	USD 1.78 bn
Gold (dore)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 2.99 bn
Iron ore & high-grade concentrate	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 2.85 bn
Palm kernel oil/oilcake	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 166.8 m
Direct-reduced iron/sponge iron	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 74 m
Cocoa paste/butter	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 61.4 m

Left-hand column: what Liberia itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Liberia’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 17 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Liberia’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Liberia. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Liberia’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Liberia’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01EgyptUSD 4.61 bn

02South AfricaUSD 2.73 bn

03UgandaUSD 2.36 bn

04AlgeriaUSD 1.51 bn

05BotswanaUSD 984.6 m

06KenyaUSD 974.7 m

07LibyaUSD 852.7 m

08MoroccoUSD 819.9 m

09EthiopiaUSD 516.3 m

10GhanaUSD 515.7 m

11DjiboutiUSD 460.7 m

12MaliUSD 303.9 m

13MozambiqueUSD 278.3 m

14Cote dIvoireUSD 273.6 m

15SomaliaUSD 247.9 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Liberia. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Liberia would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Liberia to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Iron ore moves to steel feedstock

AML or a partner commissions DR-grade concentrate and ideally a DRI plant (HS 7203), powered by firm new generation (the 72 MW Yekepa and 21 MW Buchanan AML plants are a start), and African steel demand consolidates into firm offtake.

Rubber moves to finished goods

Investment in a TSR-to-tyre or latex-to-glove plant, plus reliable power and a skilled workforce, with positioning relative to Cote d'Ivoire's dominant scale.

Palm oil moves to refined oil

Completion and scaling of mills and refineries to capture Africa's large palm-oil import demand, and resolution of the land and community disputes that have stalled planting.

The cross-border corridor becomes real

Intergovernmental alignment with Guinea to make the Ivanhoe/HPX rail transit operational, which is currently politically blocked.

The enabling base is built out

500-700 MW of generation by 2030 as planned, alongside LPI and port-throughput improvements and a genuine local-content and beneficiation policy beyond the ARREST framework.

The binding constraints

Power is the binding gate Dependable domestic generation of ~93 MW operational, with dry-season hydro as low as ~10 MW, sits below peak demand of ~142 MW and relies on CLSG imports, making it a hard constraint on any energy-intensive processing (LERC 2023; LEC 2025).

Logistics are narrow and concentrated A Logistics Performance Index of 2.4 (2022), a single heavy-haul rail line controlled by one concessionaire, and a modest container port together limit the movement of processed goods at scale.

Single-buyer and feedstock dependency Iron ore (AML), rubber (Firestone) and gold (Bea Mountain) each hinge on one foreign operator and the state captures limited value: LEITI's FY2023 reconciliation lists government revenues from Bea Mountain at ~US$33.47 million against US$653 million of gold exports (~3%), and the AP found ~6 cents on every dollar of gold exported over July 2021-December 2022 (US$37.8m on US$576m).

Capital and skills are negligible The manufacturing capital base is negligible and the skilled-labour pool very low, a weakness underlined by UNIDO's failure to rank Liberia at all.

Governance and security fragility Post-conflict fragility, land disputes, Guinea border tensions and scrutiny over MDA renegotiation all weigh on delivery risk.

Trade-data integrity Ship-registry artefacts distort official goods statistics, so single-year figures must be treated as indicative and read across multiple years.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Liberia’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Continental demand is the honest vulnerability, not supply. Africa imports finished steel, not iron ore, so the substitution prize is realised only if African DRI and steelmaking grow and buy Liberian DR-grade concentrate. That requires Liberia to move further up the ladder to HS 7203, which it does not yet occupy.

Power is a hard gate on any energy-intensive processing. Dependable domestic generation of around 93 MW operational, with dry-season hydro as low as 10 MW, sits below peak demand of about 142 MW and relies on CLSG imports. The audit sets 500 to 700 MW of generation by 2030 as a condition of the enabling base.

Value capture sits with the concessionaire, not the state. LEITI's FY2023 reconciliation lists government revenues from Bea Mountain at around US$33.47 million against US$653 million of gold exports, roughly 3 per cent, and the AP found about 6 cents on every dollar of gold exported over July 2021 to December 2022, US$37.8 million on US$576 million.

Single-operator dependency runs through every pillar. Iron ore rests on ArcelorMittal, rubber on Firestone and gold on Bea Mountain. Processing and value-capture decisions sit with the concessionaire rather than the Liberian state, which is the flipside of the durability those long-horizon concessions provide.

Output is volatile and construction-sensitive. ArcelorMittal's own reported output as a separate LEITI line item fell from 471 tonnes in 2022 to 70 tonnes in 2023 during the Phase II construction shutdown, while national exports held near 4 million tonnes. Forward targets of 25 to 30 million tonnes are government aspirations, not realised output.

The Guinea transit corridor that would amplify volumes is politically blocked. Liberia's House ratified a roughly US$1.8 billion twenty-five-year concession in December 2025 granting Ivanhoe Atlantic access to the Yekepa–Buchanan rail and port to evacuate Guinean Nimba ore, but Guinea has not authorised transit and is completing its own Trans-Guinean railway and Morébaya port, undermining the Liberian corridor's prospects.

Capital, skills and logistics remain thin, and the policy base is generic. The manufacturing capital base is negligible, the skilled-labour pool very low, UNIDO does not rank Liberia, and the Logistics Performance Index reads 2.4 on the 2022 survey with a single heavy-haul line controlled by one concessionaire. The ARREST Agenda is a broad development framework rather than a specific beneficiation or local-content industrial policy.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Liberia's Draft 1 bundle rests on a single genuine beneficiation step performed at scale and on infrastructure that is difficult to replicate: high-grade iron-ore concentrate exceeding 66 per cent iron from the Nimba range, moved on the sub-region's only operational heavy-haul railway to a dedicated port, with natural rubber in ribbed smoked sheet, crumb and latex-concentrate form as the credible runner-up and gold doré, refined domestically to doré at Bea Mountain's on-site smelter, as a large but globally fungible third. What must be proven is everything above that step. The audit is explicit that continental demand for ore is only moderate because Africa imports steel rather than iron ore, that no DRI or steelmaking exists, that no tyre or glove plant exists despite the feedstock at Harbel, that cement is grinding-only on imported clinker, and that the ship registry is a service and not a supplyable product. Delivery therefore turns on four conditions the audit itself sets out: firm new generation moving towards 500 to 700 MW by 2030; commissioning of DR-grade concentrate and ideally a DRI plant with firm African offtake; intergovernmental alignment with Guinea to make the rail transit real; and a genuine local-content and beneficiation policy beyond the ARREST framework. Until those hold, Liberia should be read as an endowment and logistics position with one proven processing step, not as a manufacturer.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Liberia is shown 17 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Liberia to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Liberia stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Liberia?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Liberia’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Liberia?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.