Right of Supply — Equatorial Guinea

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to The Honourable Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Equatorial Guinea · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Honourable Minister,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Equatorial Guinea — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Equatorial Guinea is in this room

Equatorial Guinea's strongest endowment for continental supply is methanol. The AMPCO / Atlantic Methanol plant at Punta Europa on Bioko Island has operated since May 2001, converting domestic Alba gas into a globally traded finished chemical; it produced 756,000 tonnes in 2024 against a debottlenecked design of over one million tonnes per year, making the country Africa's second-largest methanol producer after Egypt. It is the only product in the national export basket that carries revealed comparative advantage above one and is a genuinely manufactured good, and it sits beside deepwater export jetties and Luba Freeport, against African consumption of roughly 5 million tonnes a year on a structurally import-dependent basis. The honest constraint is feedstock: the Alba field is the sole legacy feed, it is in decline, the gas sales agreement underpinning Punta Europa reaches the end of its term in 2026, and the plant competes with EG LNG and the Alba LPG facility for the same shrinking volumes. Any allocation therefore rests on securing gas beyond Alba. The Gas Mega Hub's Phase I Alen tieback already delivered first gas in February 2021 and is operational, but the backfill that would extend feedstock life — the later Aseng and cross-border phases together with the ConocoPhillips Blocks B/4 and EG-27 developments — has yet to reach first gas.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Equatorial Guinea, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Equatorial Guinea

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

8draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Equatorial Guinea’s draft bundle. 8 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Methanol. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 strong contender · 3 emerging · 4 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Equatorial Guinea is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 8 candidate lines proposed for Equatorial Guinea below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Equatorial Guinea. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Equatorial Guinea will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Equatorial Guinea will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

8 lines

Equatorial Guinea’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Equatorial Guinea at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Equatorial Guinea’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Equatorial Guinea’s own capability audit.

Minerals and metals (gold, base metals)

Historical literature lists occurrences of gold, copper, bauxite, iron, lead, zinc, phosphates, titanium, manganese, uranium and diamonds, but none are at reserve-confirmed or production scale from any Tier-1 source, and the USGS does not carry Equatorial Guinea as a producer of these. There are no significant operating mines and no domestic metal refining or smelting.

Raw base · industrial screen

Refined petroleum products (HS 2710)

Despite roughly 1.1 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, there is no operating crude oil refinery and all refined petroleum products are imported. The Bata 20,000-barrel-per-day refinery and the Punta Europa modular refinery are announced or feasibility-stage only.

Capability inversion

Ammonia, urea and fertiliser (HS 2814 / 3102)

The petrochemical ambition attached to the Gas Mega Hub — ammonia, urea, methanol-to-gasoline and formaldehyde — is announced or at feasibility stage only and is not operational. Continental demand is very large, with around 90 per cent of African fertiliser imported, but no plant exists to serve it.

Raw base · industrial screen

Cocoa beans (HS 1801)

The historic Bioko crop has collapsed from about 36,161 tonnes in 1969 to a few thousand tonnes, with exports of roughly US$30 million in 2022 on a Tier 2 source. There is no grinding base, the output is raw beans, and Africa is a net cocoa exporter, making intra-African demand marginal.

Scale-matching

Fish and tuna (HS 0303 / 1604)

The maritime economic zone covers roughly 314,000 square kilometres but total fisheries production is small at around 8,000 tonnes in 2016, with an industrial tuna catch of some 1,500 to 3,100 tonnes a year. The resource is largely underexploited and there is no significant domestic processing base.

Raw base · industrial screen

Natural gas and LNG (HS 2711.11 / 2711.21)

EG LNG has operated at 3.4 to 3.7 million tonnes per annum since 2007 and holds revealed comparative advantage above one, but Africa is a net gas exporter and intra-African gas trade is marginal. Feedstock decline is also acute, so the operational scale does not translate into a continental supply claim.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Equatorial Guinea actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Equatorial Guinea. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Equatorial Guinea is a small Gulf-of-Guinea petro-state of some 1.89 million people (2024, World Bank), with nominal GDP per capita of roughly US$6,745 (2024, World Bank). Its economy is defined by offshore hydrocarbons: proven oil reserves of about 1.1 billion barrels, ranked around 40th globally and 9th in Africa, and proven gas reserves of approximately 39 billion cubic metres, or over 1.5 trillion cubic feet. Both streams are past their peak. Oil production has fallen from a 2005 peak of about 380,000 barrels per day to roughly 55,000 to 62,000 barrels per day across 2023 to 2025, making Equatorial Guinea the smallest producer within OPEC, which it joined in 2017. Gas output peaked in 2013 and fell by around 20 per cent in 2023. The country accounts for roughly 0.33 per cent of world gas output.

What distinguishes Equatorial Guinea from a purely extractive profile is the Punta Europa complex on Bioko Island, where domestic gas is converted into LNG, LPG and methanol. The AMPCO / Atlantic Methanol plant has run since May 2001, with an original design of 2,500 tonnes per day, roughly 850,000 tonnes per year, debottlenecked to over 3,000 tonnes per day and above one million tonnes per year on operator-reported figures; actual 2024 output was 756,000 tonnes, making Equatorial Guinea Africa's second-largest methanol producer after Egypt. EG LNG Train 1 has operated since 2007 at 3.4 to 3.7 million tonnes per annum, and Alba Plant LLC operates an LPG facility on the same site. On the mainland, Río Muni supplies okoumé and tropical hardwoods; rough wood was the country's third-largest export at about US$248 million in 2017. The maritime economic zone covers roughly 314,000 square kilometres but total fisheries production is small, around 8,000 tonnes in 2016, and cocoa has collapsed from about 36,161 tonnes in 1969 to a few thousand tonnes.

On economic complexity the audit is direct: Equatorial Guinea is not currently assigned an ECI value or rank by the OEC, being listed as "no data" on the 2022 ranking and falling below the Harvard Atlas minimum coverage threshold. The OEC identifies eight products with revealed comparative advantage above one, anchored by crude petroleum, petroleum gas, acyclic alcohols (methanol), rough wood and veneer, and special-purpose ships. Of these, the only genuinely manufactured or processed good is methanol. Manufacturing value added per capita stands at about US$1,264 (UNIDO Country Classification 2025), with UNIDO grouping the country as "middle income industrialising"; the maximum share of manufacturing value added in GDP was 8.1 per cent in 2012 and has declined since. Feasible diversification is realistically confined to gas-derived chemistry — methanol derivatives such as formaldehyde and methanol-to-gasoline, together with ammonia and urea — rather than to broader manufacturing.

The endowment in depth

Equatorial Guinea is a small Gulf-of-Guinea petro-state (population ~1.89 million, 2024, World Bank; nominal GDP per capita ~US$6,745, 2024) whose productive base is overwhelmingly defined by offshore hydrocarbons. Its mineral and metal endowment is negligible: there are no significant operating mines and no domestic metal refining or smelting. Historical literature lists unexploited occurrences of gold, copper, bauxite, iron, lead, zinc, phosphates, titanium, manganese, uranium and diamonds, but none are at reserve-confirmed or production scale from any Tier-1 source — USGS does not carry EG as a producer of these, and the mineral profile is marked GREY/INSUFFICIENT. Energy is the defining endowment. Oil reserves stand at ~1.1 billion barrels proven (2025), ranked ~#40 globally and ~9th in Africa, but production is post-peak and declining — from a 2005 peak of ~380,000 bbl/d to ~55,000–62,000 bbl/d in 2023–2025, making EG OPEC's smallest producer (it joined OPEC in 2017). Gas reserves are ~39 billion cubic metres / >1.5 trillion cubic feet proven (with the EG-27/Ebano development reported to hold ~3.8 tcf, operator-reported), yet gas production also peaked in 2013; EG is the ~31st-largest global gas producer at ~0.33% of world output, and output fell ~20% in 2023.

The real productive capacity sits in the gas value chain at the Punta Europa complex on Bioko Island, and it is genuine and operational. There is no operating crude oil refinery — all refined petroleum products are imported, and the announced 20,000-bbl/d Bata refinery and a Punta Europa modular refinery are feasibility-stage only. But three gas-fed plants run at export scale: the AMPCO/Atlantic Methanol plant (~1 million tonnes/year design, 756,000 tonnes actual output in 2024, operational since May 2001); EG LNG Train 1 (3.4–3.7 mtpa, ~5 bcm/y, first cargo 2007, with ConocoPhillips loading its first EG LNG cargo in June 2025); and the Alba Plant LLC LPG facility. This is the whole of the manufacturing story: MVA per capita is ~US$1,264 (UNIDO Country Classification 2025), placing EG in the UNIDO "Middle income industrializing" group, but the maximum share of MVA in GDP was only 8.1% (2012) and declining, and outside hydrocarbons processing the manufacturing base is near-absent. Named industrial zones are the Luba Freeport oil-services free zone (Bioko) and the Bata port industrial zone.

In agriculture, fisheries and forestry the base is raw and under-processed, with timber the only historically meaningful non-hydrocarbon export. Okoumé and tropical hardwoods from Río Muni (the mainland) made rough wood EG's #3 export (~US$248M, 2017, OEC), but it is exported largely as logs, rough wood and sawnwood; the CEMAC log-export ban has been repeatedly deferred and was not implemented as of 2022–23, and significant illegality and sustainability concerns are flagged. Cocoa, the historic colonial mainstay on Bioko, collapsed from ~36,161 tonnes (1969) to a few thousand tonnes, with exports of ~US$30M (2022, Tier 2); coffee is ~US$25M (2022). Fisheries rest on an EEZ of ~314,000 km² but total production is small (~8,000 tonnes, 2016), with an industrial-fleet tuna catch of ~1,500–3,100 t/y, largely underexploited and with no significant domestic processing base.

Human capital is weak despite the high headline GDP per capita: GNI per capita is ~US$4,134 (2015 constant, 2024), well below the 2008 peak; life expectancy is ~60.7 years; the Human Capital Index is modest (a child reaches roughly half of productivity potential); unemployment is 13.7% and only 17% of jobs are formal; EG has historically had the largest expatriate-to-resident ratio in Africa, with technical oil-sector skills concentrated in largely foreign-operated hydrocarbon enclaves, and social spending is very low by regional standards (IMF 2023 Article IV). Power and logistics are uneven. Installed capacity has historically been in the ~200 MW range; hydro is the mainland backbone (Djibloho 120 MW, inaugurated 2012, Sinohydro; Sendje 200 MW under construction, commissioning planned 2026, ~1,265 GWh/y design), while Bioko is powered by a Turbo-Gas plant of ~154 MW; electrification is ~66% and ~24% of the population still lacks electricity, against an indicative hydropower potential of ~2,600 MW. Ports are the infrastructure strength: Malabo (Bioko), Bata (mainland, 570 m quay, 14.5 m depth, 5 berths, ~US$500M invested 2006–11) and Luba Freeport (natural deepwater up to 45 m, a 200 m+ deepwater quay, a 50-ha oil-services free zone, ~100 ship movements/month, and anchor tenants including ExxonMobil, Marathon, Noble and Schlumberger, Lonrho-managed at ~63% Lonrho / ~37% government). The geography is split — Bioko island plus the Río Muni mainland — with no railways, though roads improved markedly post-oil-boom, and Luba stands as a credible Gulf-of-Guinea oil-services logistics hub.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Equatorial Guinea sits at the bottom of the complexity spectrum. It is not currently assigned an ECI value or rank by OEC (listed "No data" on the OEC 2022 complexity ranking) or by the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas, both of which place it below their minimum data-coverage and quality thresholds — a finding consistent with an export basket that is ~97% hydrocarbons, and with EG's historical placement among the least-complex economies. The absence of a current Tier-1 ECI value is stated plainly as a finding, not a gap to be filled.

OEC reports that EG exports 8 products with RCA > 1 (HS92), anchored by crude petroleum, petroleum gas, acyclic alcohols (methanol), rough wood and wood veneer, plus special-purpose ships; no specific numeric methanol RCA value is published. The only RCA>1 product that is a genuine manufactured or processed good is methanol. Product-space adjacency is thin given the concentration in hydrocarbons: realistic diversification sits within gas-derived chemistry — methanol derivatives such as formaldehyde and methanol-to-gasoline, and ammonia/urea — all of which are currently aspirational, rather than within broader complex manufacturing, for which the capability base (MVA/GDP max 8.1%, 2012) is absent.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Methanol (HS 2905.11) is Equatorial Guinea's single most defensible continental supply position, produced at the Atlantic Methanol Production Company (AMPCO) plant at Punta Europa, Bioko Island. Unlike every other candidate, methanol combines all five advantage criteria: an input base (domestic Alba gas feedstock); a real, operational processing asset (one of Africa's largest methanol plants, ~1 million tonnes/year design, 756,000 tonnes actual output in 2024, running since 2001 — making EG Africa's second-largest methanol producer after Egypt per IndexBox); competitiveness (described by the operator as one of the largest, lowest-cost producers, exploiting gas that would otherwise be flared and a central-Atlantic shipping location, with EG, Egypt and Algeria together supplying 96% of African methanol exports); deliverability (Punta Europa adjoins deepwater export jetties and Luba Freeport); and continental demand (Africa consumes ~5 million tonnes/year of methanol, worth ~US$3.1B in 2024, and is structurally import-dependent). Methanol is a genuine downstream petrochemical and one of the rare African beneficiation successes — gas converted into a globally traded finished chemical with RCA > 1. Ownership is now ConocoPhillips (via its 2024 Marathon Oil acquisition), Noble Energy/Chevron, and state SONAGAS.

The honest limit is gas feedstock, which is the binding constraint. The Alba field — the sole legacy feed — is in decline; the Alba gas sales agreement underpinning Punta Europa reaches the end of its term in 2026, and the plant competes with EG LNG for the same shrinking gas. Plant age (commissioned 2001), single-feedstock dependency, and the unrealised Gas Mega Hub backfill (Aseng and cross-border gas still under negotiation) all threaten throughput, and a 2019 government directive to dismantle the plant for a refinery, though never executed, signals policy risk. The runner-up positions carry the same exposure: operational Alba Plant LLC LPG output stands against very large, import-dependent African clean-cooking demand (~990 million in sub-Saharan Africa lacked clean cooking in 2022, with LPG serving three-quarters of switchers), and EG LNG is operational at scale (3.4–3.7 mtpa since 2007), but both face the acute feedstock decline, and intra-African gas trade remains marginal.

Current reality

Equatorial Guinea's defensible present capability sits within a single physical footprint. The Punta Europa complex on Bioko Island holds the three named operational plants — AMPCO methanol, EG LNG and Alba Plant LLC for LPG and condensate — all of them gas-fed. Outside hydrocarbons processing, the audit records that the manufacturing base is near-absent. There is no operating crude oil refinery; all refined petroleum products are imported. A 20,000-barrel-per-day Bata refinery and a Punta Europa modular refinery are at announced or feasibility stage only. Mineral endowment is occurrence-level: historical literature lists gold, copper, bauxite, iron, lead, zinc, phosphates, titanium, manganese, uranium and diamonds, but none at reserve-confirmed or production scale from any Tier-1 source, and the audit marks the mineral position GREY and insufficient.

Logistics are a relative strength. Luba Freeport on Bioko offers natural deepwater of up to 45 metres, a quay of over 200 metres, a 50-hectare oil-services free zone and roughly 100 ship movements per month, with anchor tenants including ExxonMobil, Marathon, Noble and Schlumberger. Bata on the mainland has a 570-metre quay, 14.5 metres of depth and five berths, following some US$500 million invested between 2006 and 2011. Against this, the territory is split between island and mainland with no railways, electrification stands at around 66 per cent with roughly 24 per cent of the population still without electricity, and the mainland power backbone depends on hydro — Djibloho at 120 MW since 2012 and Sendje at 200 MW still under construction with commissioning planned for 2026. Human capital is weak: GNI per capita of about US$4,134 in 2015 constant terms sits well below the 2008 peak, life expectancy is roughly 60.7 years, unemployment is 13.7 per cent and only 17 per cent of jobs are formal. The IMF describes an economy in recession and secular hydrocarbon decline, with hydrocarbon output projected to fall by around 50 per cent between 2023 and 2028.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 8 candidate lines · will change

Equatorial Guinea’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Equatorial Guinea’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Equatorial Guinea will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Equatorial Guinea’s 8 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 1Emerging 3Aspirational 4

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined petroleum products

Announced Bata/Punta Europa modular refineries; no operating refinery · Maturity: None (EG imports all refined fuel) · Competitiveness: Very large; Africa imported ~2.5M bbl/d products 2023, ~US$120bn hydrocarbon imports 2024

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)

271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....

271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c

271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara

271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 12 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: AFREC; OGJ; OPEC/Punch · 2019–2024

LPG (propane/butane)

Alba Plant LLC LPG facility operational on domestic gas · Maturity: Intermediate; export-ready · Competitiveness: Large; ~990M in SSA lacked clean cooking 2022; LPG=3/4 of clean-cooking switchers

EMERGING

USD 5.22 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271112Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, propane

271113Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, butanes

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 1.77 bnEgypt USD 968.8 mCote dIvoire USD 413.8 mTunisia USD 331.8 mSouth Africa USD 298.4 mKenya USD 240.9 mGhana USD 181.5 mSenegal USD 158.3 m

Source: Fasken; Argus; IEA/World Liquid Gas Association · 2019–2025

Fish / tuna

EEZ 314,000 km2 underexploited; negligible processing · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Large African fish import demand

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.88 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .

030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an

030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo

030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e

030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae

030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh

030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...

030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)

030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304

030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings

030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t

030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"

030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)

030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"

030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)

030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9

030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...

030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)

030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks

030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)

030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)

030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)

030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...

030380Frozen fish livers and roes

030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030390Frozen fish livers and roes

030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt

030392Fish; frozen, shark fins

030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604

160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved

160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs

160431Fish preparations; caviar

160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 19.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Cote dIvoire USD 841.3 mNigeria USD 567.6 mEgypt USD 441.3 mGhana USD 353.7 mCameroon USD 309 mMauritius USD 245.7 mSouth Africa USD 239.4 mLibya USD 223.3 m

Source: World Bank/CEIC; FME · 2016

Ammonia/urea/fertiliser

Announced GMH petrochemical ambition; gas feedstock logic; not built · Maturity: None (announced/feasibility) · Competitiveness: Very large; ~90% African fertiliser imported

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.87 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

281410Ammonia; anhydrous

281420Ammonia; in aqueous solution

310210Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solution

310221Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, ammonium sulphate

310229Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, other than ammonium sulphate

310230Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solution

310240Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic non-fertilizing substances,

310250Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, sodium nitrate

310260Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, double salts and mixtures of calcium nitrate and ammonium nitrate

310270Calcium cyanamide (excluding that in pellet or similar forms, or in packages with a gross weight...

310280Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution

310290Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; nitrogenous, other kinds including mixtures not specified in the foregoing subheadings

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Procuring agency (indicative): ETBC (Ethiopia), SFFRFM (Malawi) · Input Subsidy Programs · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 1.07 bnSouth Africa USD 519.6 mEthiopia USD 495.7 mZambia USD 456.2 mZimbabwe USD 241.3 mTanzania USD 236 mMalawi USD 194 mNigeria USD 144.7 m

Source: KeyFactsEnergy; World Bank/IFA · 2022–2024

Natural gas / LNG

EG LNG 3.4–3.7 mtpa operational since 2007; RCA>1 · Maturity: Intermediate (gas-to-LNG); at scale · Competitiveness: Intra-African gas trade marginal

EMERGING

USD 3.5 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271111Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, natural gas

271121Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Procuring agency (indicative): State utilities · Energy Security · control: controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 2.41 bnMorocco USD 594.2 mSouth Africa USD 412.1 mTogo USD 47.9 mCameroon USD 9.2 mLesotho USD 8.6 mEswatini USD 5.4 mDR Congo USD 4.9 m

Source: EG LNG; GISReports; OEC · 2007–2024

Sawn wood / okoumé

Mainland tropical hardwood; rough wood #3 export US$248M; RCA>1 · Maturity: Raw-to-low-intermediate (mostly logs); next step sawn/veneer · Competitiveness: Moderate African wood-product import demand

EMERGING

USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...

440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san

440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length

440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))

440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le

440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise

440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or

440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm

440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...

440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or

440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm

440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 9 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 728.6 mAlgeria USD 312.7 mMorocco USD 287.1 mSouth Africa USD 114.3 mLibya USD 46.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.3 mSenegal USD 36.2 m

Source: OEC; ITTO TTM · 2017–2024

Methanol

Operational ~1mt/y AMPCO plant on domestic gas feedstock; Africa's 2nd-largest producer (756K t 2024); RCA>1 · Maturity: Intermediate (gas-to-methanol); next step formaldehyde/MTG · Competitiveness: ~5mt/y African consumption (~US$3.1B 2024), import-dependent; EG+Egypt+Algeria=96% of African methanol exports

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 78.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

290511Alcohols; saturated monohydric, methanol (methyl alcohol)

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Angola USD 26.3 mNigeria USD 19.7 mSouth Africa USD 9.5 mEgypt USD 5 mKenya USD 3.2 mGhana USD 2.7 mGabon USD 2.3 mCongo USD 1.6 m

Source: atlanticmethanol.com (operator); OEC; IndexBox · 2024

Cocoa beans

Historic Bioko crop, collapsed (~US$30M 2022) · Maturity: Raw beans; no grinding · Competitiveness: Marginal intra-African

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Equatorial Guinea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: Britannica; Countryaah · 2022

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Equatorial Guinea is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Equatorial Guinea buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Equatorial Guinea is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 1.05 bn

Equatorial Guinea’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Equatorial Guinea imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Fish / tuna	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 19.8 m	USD 4.88 bn
Refined petroleum products	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 12 m	USD 110.54 bn
Sawn wood / okoumé	EMERGING	USD 0.2 m	USD 1.78 bn
LPG (propane/butane)	EMERGING	USD 0.1 m	USD 5.22 bn
Ammonia/urea/fertiliser	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0.1 m	USD 4.87 bn
Natural gas / LNG	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 3.5 bn
Methanol	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 78.7 m
Cocoa beans	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 45.3 m

Left-hand column: what Equatorial Guinea itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Equatorial Guinea’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 8 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Equatorial Guinea’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Equatorial Guinea. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Equatorial Guinea’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Equatorial Guinea’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01NigeriaUSD 20.67 bn

02South AfricaUSD 16.78 bn

03MoroccoUSD 11.33 bn

04EgyptUSD 11.09 bn

05DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn

06GhanaUSD 5.01 bn

07LibyaUSD 4.88 bn

08KenyaUSD 4.64 bn

09Cote dIvoireUSD 1.26 bn

10EthiopiaUSD 495.7 m

11ZambiaUSD 456.2 m

12TunisiaUSD 351.5 m

13AlgeriaUSD 319.6 m

14CameroonUSD 318.2 m

15MauritiusUSD 245.7 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Equatorial Guinea. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Equatorial Guinea would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Equatorial Guinea to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Secured gas feedstock beyond Alba

Realisation of the Gas Mega Hub — Aseng, Alen and cross-border Cameroon/Nigeria gas — plus ConocoPhillips Blocks B/4 and EG-27 reaching FID and first gas, to backfill the declining Alba field.

Plant life-extension investment

Capital reinvestment at the AMPCO methanol plant and the Alba Plant LPG facility to sustain throughput at ageing assets commissioned in 2001.

Intra-African offtake logistics

Distribution channels to move methanol and LPG to African buyers, since exports currently flow to the Americas, Europe and Asia rather than continentally.

Policy stability

Abandonment of the dismantling/refinery-conversion threat to the methanol plant and a transparent SEZ and fiscal regime to restore investor confidence.

Timber beneficiation and ban enforcement

Enforcement of the CEMAC log-export ban plus domestic sawmilling and veneer capacity to move okoumé from logs to HS 4407 kiln-dried sawn and value-added products.

Construction of announced petrochemical and refining plants

Actual build-out of the announced ammonia/urea capacity and the Bata/Punta Europa modular refineries, none of which is operational — all remain announced or feasibility-stage only.

The binding constraints

Feedstock depletion (binding) The Alba gas decline threatens methanol, LNG and LPG simultaneously, since all three plants at Punta Europa draw on the same shrinking domestic gas, and the Gas Mega Hub backfill is largely unrealised. The Alba gas sales agreement underpinning the complex reaches the end of its term in 2026.

Power and heavy-industry gate Power is adequate on Bioko via the ~154 MW Turbo-Gas plant, but the mainland depends on hydro with Sendje (200 MW) still under construction, and ~24% of the population remains unelectrified — a constraint on any mainland heavy industry.

Logistics and geography EG has good deepwater ports at Luba and Bata, but the split between Bioko island and the Río Muni mainland, combined with the complete absence of railways, fragments internal logistics.

Capital and investor confidence ExxonMobil exited in 2024 and Marathon Oil passed to ConocoPhillips; governance and reputational risk (kleptocracy concerns and foreign-engineer detentions) and an undercapitalised banking sector flagged by the IMF weigh on investment.

Skills and human capital Human capital is weak and technical capability is concentrated in foreign operators rather than the resident workforce, leaving the state thinly staffed for its own industrial base.

Governance and single-point dependency There is single-buyer and single-feedstock dependency across the entire gas value chain, and the IMF flags transparency failures including non-publication of asset declarations.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Equatorial Guinea’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Feedstock depletion is the binding constraint. The Alba field, the sole legacy feed, is in decline, and its gas sales agreement underpinning Punta Europa reaches the end of its term in 2026. Methanol, LNG and LPG are threatened simultaneously because all three compete for the same shrinking gas.

The Gas Mega Hub backfill remains largely unrealised. Phase I, the Alen tieback, delivered first gas in February 2021 and is operational, but Phases II and III covering Aseng and cross-border Cameroon and Nigeria gas are under negotiation or development and remain announced. ConocoPhillips Blocks B/4 and EG-27 production sharing contracts are expected to be finalised only in 2026.

Plant age and single-feedstock dependency threaten throughput. AMPCO was commissioned in 2001 and depends on one feedstock source. A 2019 government directive to dismantle the plant for a refinery was never executed, but the audit records it as a signal of policy risk. Single-buyer and single-feedstock dependency runs across the entire gas value chain.

Investor confidence has weakened. ExxonMobil exited in 2024 and Marathon's interests passed to ConocoPhillips. The audit flags governance and reputational risk including kleptocracy concerns and foreign-engineer detentions, and the IMF records an undercapitalised banking sector.

Offtake currently bypasses Africa. For methanol and LPG to fulfil continental allocations, intra-African distribution logistics would have to be built, since exports currently flow to the Americas, Europe and Asia. The intra-African export share is not cleanly establishable; an ITC 2022 figure showing Zambia at 21.3 per cent is anomalous and likely a special-purpose-ship or re-export artefact.

Power and heavy-industry capacity is uneven. Bioko is adequately served by the roughly 154 MW Turbo-Gas plant, but the mainland depends on hydro with Sendje still under construction. Around 24 per cent of the population remains unelectrified and installed capacity has historically sat in the 200 MW range.

Skills and human capital are thin. Technical capability is concentrated in largely foreign-operated hydrocarbon enclaves. The Human Capital Index is modest, with a child reaching about half of productivity potential; only 17 per cent of jobs are formal and social spending is very low by regional standards.

Timber cannot move up the chain without enforcement and mills. Moving from logs to HS 4407 products would require enforcement of the CEMAC log-export ban, repeatedly deferred and not implemented by Equatorial Guinea as of 2022 to 2023, together with domestic sawmilling and veneer capacity. Significant illegality and sustainability concerns are flagged.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Equatorial Guinea's Draft 1 bundle rests on one physical site and one molecule. Methanol from AMPCO at Punta Europa is the country's single defensible continental card — an operational, export-scale gas-to-chemicals beneficiation asset in a continent that imports most of what it consumes — with LPG from Alba Plant LLC and LNG from EG LNG as emerging positions on the same feedstock and the same jetties. Everything else in the audit is either raw, absent or announced: no operating refinery despite substantial oil reserves, no fertiliser plant despite gas-feedstock logic, timber still leaving as logs, fisheries and cocoa unprocessed, and minerals at occurrence level only. What must be proven is therefore narrow and specific: that gas feedstock can be secured beyond a declining Alba field through the Gas Mega Hub's later backfill phases and the Blocks B/4 and EG-27 developments reaching final investment decision and first gas; that life-extension investment is made at AMPCO and Alba Plant; that offtake logistics can be turned towards African buyers rather than the Americas, Europe and Asia; and that policy remains stable, with the 2019 dismantling directive abandoned and a transparent fiscal and special economic zone regime in place. Until those conditions hold, the capability is real but its duration is not yet demonstrated.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Equatorial Guinea is shown 8 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Equatorial Guinea to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Equatorial Guinea stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Equatorial Guinea?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Equatorial Guinea’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Equatorial Guinea?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.