Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
Guinea-BissauBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Guinea-Bissau — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
9
Draft 1 candidate lines for Guinea-Bissau
The Minister’s brief · for Ilídio Vieira Té · Guinea-Bissau
Prime Minister Vieira Té, beneath Farim lies something the continent cannot do without and cannot easily source elsewhere: 43.8 million tonnes of phosphate reserve at 30 per cent P2O5, among the highest grades of any undeveloped deposit on earth. Sub-Saharan Africa imports roughly 90 per cent of its fertiliser from beyond our shores and applies barely a seventh of the world's average dose, its supply held hostage to a single producer controlling over 70 per cent of global reserves. That dependence is the demand Guinea-Bissau's endowment is built to claim. The Right of Supply grants you a 25-year first right to supply that demand — not a mine you do not yet hold, but the certainty of buyers against which Farim can at last be financed and built. Disciplined by Match-or-Release, it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. Your correction, Minister, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Guinea-Bissau
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Ilídio Vieira Té, Prime Minister

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Guinea-Bissau · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Prime Minister Vieira Té,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Guinea-Bissau — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Guinea-Bissau is in this room

Guinea-Bissau's strongest endowment is phosphate: the Farim deposit holds 43.8 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves at 30.0 per cent P2O5, among the highest grades of any undeveloped phosphate deposit in the world, set against a continental position in which approximately 90 per cent of fertiliser consumed in Sub-Saharan Africa is imported, mostly from outside the continent, and supply is concentrated in a single state-owned producer holding just over 70 per cent of global reserves. The honest constraint is that Farim is a reserve and not a mine. It is fully permitted but unfinanced, requires roughly US$308 million in pre-production capital, and depends on a mineral export terminal at Ponta Chugue and a power solution that do not yet exist, in a country with 15 to 28 MW of installed generation, roughly 47 per cent grid losses and no port able to handle bulk mineral export. Guinea-Bissau's allocation is therefore aspirational by design: it is demand certainty against which capability is to be built.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Guinea-Bissau, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Guinea-Bissau

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
9draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Guinea-Bissau’s draft bundle. 9 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Raw cashew nuts. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 strong contender · 3 emerging · 3 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Guinea-Bissau is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 9 candidate lines proposed for Guinea-Bissau below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Guinea-Bissau. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Guinea-Bissau will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Guinea-Bissau will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
9 lines
Guinea-Bissau’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Guinea-Bissau at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Guinea-Bissau’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Guinea-Bissau’s own capability audit.

Phosphate rock as near-term deliverable capacity

The audit is explicit that Farim is a reserve and not a mine, with no financing, no operational date, and dependence on a mineral export terminal and power solution that do not yet exist. Capability is entirely prospective and must not be presented as available tonnage.

Raw base · industrial screen

Phosphoric acid, DAP and MAP fertiliser

The audit states that beneficiation beyond rock concentrate would require sulphuric and phosphoric acid plants and far more energy and skills than the country possesses. The finished-good step is not supportable even if the mine were built.

Capability inversion

Bauxite and alumina

Boe reserve figures of roughly 113 million tonnes at 44 per cent aluminium oxide rest on dated 2010 secondary sources rather than a current Tier-1 reserve statement, the project is undeveloped and dormant, and there is no local smelting base. The audit classes it aspirational and indicative only.

Raw base · industrial screen

Sawn wood and timber

Timber is described as a degraded, governance-compromised resource rather than a sustainable supply base, following heavy over-logging of rosewood between 2012 and 2014 and a logging and export moratorium in place since 2015.

Governance and sustainability block

Crude petroleum

Offshore activity is pre-discovery: no commercial hydrocarbon discovery has been declared and there is no production. The audit marks the category grey and insufficient in evidence.

Pre-resource

Graphite

The reported Tombali find rests on 2024 press reports and is unverified by Tier-1 geological sources, with no beneficiation stage of any kind. The audit marks it grey.

Unverified resource
08 · Endowment
What Guinea-Bissau actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Guinea-Bissau. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Guinea-Bissau's endowment rests on three assets. The first is a world-scale cashew crop: the country emerged as the eighth-largest world producer and ranked third within West Africa, yielding 122,283 tonnes in 2021, with production ranging across roughly 120,000 to 220,000 tonnes a year. Cashew accounts for approximately 90 per cent of exports and around 18 per cent of GDP, and it is the one category in which the country holds a revealed comparative advantage far above unity. The second is one of the highest-grade undeveloped phosphate deposits in the world at Farim, holding 43.8 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves at 30.0 per cent P2O5 under a feasibility study effective May 2023, with planned output of about 1.3 million tonnes a year of rock concentrate over a twenty-five-year mine life. The third is a rich Atlantic fishery, with an estimated 360,000 tonnes of resource in the maritime economic zone spanning cephalopods, crustaceans, demersal and pelagic species.

Alongside these sit endowments that are real but presently dormant or compromised. Bauxite at Boe is cited at roughly 113 million tonnes at 44 per cent aluminium oxide, though from dated secondary sources rather than a current Tier-1 reserve statement, and a long-announced project has not advanced. Forest cover is about 70 per cent, but high-value rosewood was massively over-logged for the Chinese market between 2012 and 2014, and a logging and export moratorium has been in place since 2015. Offshore hydrocarbon exploration is active but pre-discovery: Apus Energy drilled the Atum-1X well in September 2024, the first offshore well in roughly two decades, and Chevron took operatorship of deepwater Blocks 5B and 6B in September 2025, with no commercial discovery declared. A reported graphite find in the Tombali region in 2024 remains unverified by Tier-1 geological sources.

The country's structural position is unusually stark in the complexity literature. Guinea-Bissau is excluded from both the OEC and the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas economic complexity rankings because its total exports, at roughly US$170 to 235 million, fall below the approximately US$1 billion inclusion threshold. That absence is itself the finding: the export base is too small and too undiversified to register. Revealed comparative advantage is confined to cashew nuts, sawn wood and frozen fish and crustaceans. The realistic diversification logic flagged by the World Bank, IMF and AfDB is value addition within existing endowments -- domestic cashew shelling, fish processing contingent on sanitary accreditation, and phosphate beneficiation -- rather than any leap into complex manufacturing.

The endowment in depth

Guinea-Bissau hosts no operating metal mines; extractive activity is confined to small-scale construction materials — clays, granite, limestone, sand and gravel (USGS Minerals Yearbook). Two significant resources are defined but wholly undeveloped. The Farim phosphate deposit holds 43.8 Mt of proven and probable reserves at 30.0% P₂O₅ (Itafos NI 43-101 Feasibility Study, effective May 2023), described by the operator as one of the highest-grade undeveloped deposits in the world, with planned output of ~1.3 Mt/yr of phosphate rock concentrate over a 25-year mine life and pre-production capex of ~US$308 million; it is fully permitted under Mining Lease 004/2009 but not financed and not under construction. The Boé bauxite deposit is cited at ~113 Mt at 44% aluminium oxide (secondary sources citing 2010 figures, not a current Tier-1 reserve statement); a long-announced Angolan-backed project of ~US$500 million has not advanced and is dormant. A reported graphite find in the Tombali region (2024 press) is unverified by Tier-1 geology and treated as grey. All mineral endowment is therefore reserves, not production, with zero domestic beneficiation.

On energy, Guinea-Bissau has no oil or gas production and no refining; all petroleum products are imported. Offshore exploration is active but pre-discovery — Apus Energy drilled the Atum-1X well in September 2024 (the first offshore well in roughly two decades) and Chevron took operatorship of deepwater Blocks 5B and 6B in September 2025 — with no commercial hydrocarbon discovery declared. Installed generation is very low and historically diesel-dependent, at around 15–28 MW (AfDB; EIA), with grid losses near 47% and an electricity access rate around 20%, concentrated in Bissau. The transformative recent change is the OMVG regional interconnection, commissioned for Guinea-Bissau in 2024, linking it to the West African Power Pool and Guinea's Kaléta hydro plant; the country holds an allocated hydropower share of 27.5 MW / ~167 GWh per year (December 2019 PPA at ~US$0.11/kWh) and can draw up to 80 MW, with a ~20 MW solar plant underway under the World Bank Solar Energy Scale-up project. Energy remains a binding constraint on any heavy processing.

Agriculture, fisheries and forestry are the productive core. Cashew is the mainstay: Guinea-Bissau emerged as the eighth-largest world producer and ranked third in West Africa, yielding 122,283 tons in 2021 (Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 2024, citing FAO), with output ranging ~120,000–220,000+ t/yr; cashew is ~90% of exports and ~18% of GDP. Almost all is exported raw — approximately 97% in raw form, with Indian processors buying roughly 90% of exports — while domestic processing is marginal at 14 units registered in 2022, 12 operational, processing ~20,000 t at ~25% utilisation (CICC, 2022). The Atlantic fishery is a genuine second endowment: the EEZ holds an estimated 360,000 t of cephalopods, crustaceans, demersal and pelagic species (European Commission, 2024), monetised through access agreements — notably the EU Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement (2024–2029), the EU's second most significant such partnership after Mauritania, covering 41 EU vessels, with an EU contribution estimated at €85 million over five years (€17 million/yr, of which €4.5 million for sustainable fisheries management). Yet the country cannot export fish to the EU because it does not meet sanitary requirements, only ~3% of foreign-vessel catch is landed locally, and fisheries are ~4% of GDP. Forestry is a degraded, governance-compromised resource: ~70% forest cover but high-value rosewood (Pterocarpus erinaceus) was massively over-logged for China in 2012–2014 (nearly 94,000 m³), and a logging and export moratorium has been in place since 2015.

The existing industrial base is negligible and human capital and logistics compound the ceiling on value addition. Industry including construction is ~14% of GDP, manufacturing value added is a very small share largely comprising cashew shelling, food and beverage, and basic materials; the 1998–99 civil war destroyed much of the limited industrial capacity, and there are no smelters, no refineries and no functioning special economic zone. The labour force is ~845,000 (World Bank, 2024), adult literacy ~52.9% (2021) — total literacy ~45.6% (2014) with a severe gender gap of 62.2% for men versus 30.8% for women — and tertiary gross enrolment only ~2.6%, with no technical or vocational cluster tied to minerals, fisheries or manufacturing processing. Logistics are weak: the Port of Bissau (Porto Pidjiguiti) on the Geba River is the sole significant port, handling ~85%+ of exports and ~90% of imports, but it is shallow and sedimented (draught ~7–10 m), has no shore cranes and no cold storage, and was designed for 5,000 TEU/yr; a 2023 modernisation of ~€35 million (WADB/BOAD/APGB) aims to lift capacity to 70,000 TEU. A deep-water port at Buba has been studied by the AfDB for decades but not built, roads are only ~10% paved, and the N2 Dakar–Lagos corridor segment is being upgraded with EIB funding.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Guinea-Bissau is excluded from both the OEC and the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas Economic Complexity Index rankings because its total exports (~US$170–235 million) fall below the ~US$1 billion inclusion threshold; the OEC's 2021 GNB profile records that it "does not have data regarding Economic Complexity Index," and the Harvard Atlas ranks 145 countries with Guinea-Bissau not among them. That absence is itself the finding: the export base is too small and too undiversified to register, and third-party academic estimates place the country among the least complex economies (indicative only, not Tier-1). Revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) is confined to cashew nuts (HS 0801, ~90% of exports), sawn wood (HS 4407), and frozen fish and crustaceans, and no product-space adjacency set is published for the country.

The productive structure is among the least diversified in the world — a single product, cashews, at ~90% of exports, sold overwhelmingly to a single market (India ~92%). Accordingly, the realistic diversification logic flagged by the World Bank, IMF and AfDB is value addition within existing endowments — domestic cashew shelling, fish processing contingent on sanitary accreditation, and phosphate beneficiation — rather than a leap into complex manufacturing.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Guinea-Bissau's single most defensible prospective continental supply position is phosphate. The Farim deposit holds 43.8 Mt of proven and probable reserves at 30.0% P₂O₅ (Itafos NI 43-101 Feasibility Study, 2023) — a grade the operator credibly describes as among the highest of any undeveloped phosphate deposit globally — with a low strip ratio, free-dig open-pit mining, and a "LOM all-in Operating Cost of $70.9/tonne rock concentrate loaded Free on Board (FOB) basis" (Itafos FS, 17 May 2023; after-tax NPV(10%) US$572M, IRR 34.9%, at a LOM average rock price of US$197.5/t). The continental demand case is the strongest of any Guinea-Bissau category: per the World Bank (May 2022), "approximately 90 percent of fertilizer consumed in Sub-Saharan Africa is imported, mostly from outside the continent," and Sub-Saharan Africa averages 22 kilograms of fertiliser per hectare against a world average seven times higher at 146 kilograms per hectare. Supply is dangerously concentrated — Morocco's state-owned OCP controls "just over 70% of the world's phosphate reserves and a global market share of 31%" — an exposure intensified by China's 2024 phosphate export restrictions, so a high-grade West African source processed into rock concentrate and ultimately phosphoric acid, DAP and MAP maps directly onto a large, structural import-substitution prize.

The position is prospective, not operational. Farim is a reserve, not a mine: it has no financing, no operational date, requires ~US$308 million in pre-production capex, and depends on a mineral export terminal (Ponta Chugue) and reliable power that do not yet exist. Beneficiation beyond rock concentrate would demand sulphuric and phosphoric acid plants and far more energy and skills than the country possesses, while governance instability and a 15-year history of the licence changing hands without development are the central risks. The endowment is real and continentally significant; the capability is entirely prospective.

Current reality

Guinea-Bissau is a small, low-income West African coastal economy of roughly US$2.1 billion GDP and about 2.1 million people, structurally dependent on a single agricultural commodity. Raw cashew exports generated 132.8 billion CFA francs in 2023, accounting for 93 per cent of total export earnings. The headline supply position is sobering: the country is today a raw-commodity exporter with virtually no processing or manufacturing base. Approximately 97 per cent of the cashew crop is exported in raw form, and the final destination is primarily Indian processors, who purchase approximately 90 per cent of exports. Domestic processing is marginal -- fourteen units registered in 2022, twelve operational, handling around 20,000 tonnes at roughly 25 per cent utilisation. Industry including construction is about 14 per cent of GDP; there are no smelters, no refineries and no functioning special economic zone, and the civil war of 1998 to 1999 destroyed much of the limited industrial capacity that existed.

The enabling environment is correspondingly thin. Installed generation is around 15 to 28 MW with grid losses near 47 per cent and an electricity access rate of roughly 20 per cent, concentrated in Bissau; the OMVG regional interconnection commissioned for Guinea-Bissau in 2024 gives an allocated hydropower share of 27.5 MW and the ability to draw up to 80 MW, but reliable industrial power for processing is not assured. The Port of Bissau is the sole significant port, handling over 85 per cent of exports, shallow at seven to ten metres draught, sedimented, with no shore cranes and no cold storage, designed for 5,000 TEU a year with a modernisation aiming to lift capacity to 70,000 TEU. Roads are about 10 per cent paved. Adult literacy is around 52.9 per cent and tertiary gross enrolment about 2.6 per cent, with no specialised technical or vocational cluster tied to minerals processing, fisheries processing or manufacturing. Guinea-Bissau's allocation is therefore aspirational: it is demand certainty against which capability must be built, not a claim on near-term capacity.

Read under the South Sudan Principle

Guinea-Bissau holds an aspirational allocation. Nothing on these pages is a near-term capacity claim. The bundle is the demand certainty against which capability is built, and it is deliberately held open while the state rebuilds.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 9 candidate lines · will change

Guinea-Bissau’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Guinea-Bissau’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Guinea-Bissau will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Guinea-Bissau’s 9 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 1Emerging 3Aspirational 3Grey 2
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Crude petroleum

Offshore MSGBC potential, Chevron/Apus exploring · Maturity: No discovery/production · Competitiveness: Large but pre-resource
GREY
USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: GeoExpro; Apus · 2024; 2025

Fish & crustaceans

~360,000 t EEZ resource; RCA in frozen fish · Maturity: Raw, foreign-fleet caught, minimal local processing · Competitiveness: Significant continental seafood demand
EMERGING
USD 4.34 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .
030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an
030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo
030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e
030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae
030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh
030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...
030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)
030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03
030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304
030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings
030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t
030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"
030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"
030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9
030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...
030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)
030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks
030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)
030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)
030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...
030380Frozen fish livers and roes
030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99
030390Frozen fish livers and roes
030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt
030392Fish; frozen, shark fins
030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal
030611Crustaceans; frozen, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030612Crustaceans; frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030613Frozen shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns in shell, cooked...
030614Crustaceans; frozen, crabs, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030615Crustaceans; frozen, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030616Crustaceans; frozen, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030617Crustaceans; frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030619Crustaceans; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.1, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water
030621Rock lobster and other sea crawfish "Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp. and Jasus spp.", even smoked,...
030622Lobsters "Homarus spp.", even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried,...
030623Shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, live, dried, salted or in brine, incl. shrimps...
030624Crabs, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted or in brine,...
030626Cold-water shrimps and prawns "Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon", even smoked, whether in shell . . .
030627Shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted...
030629Crustaceans, even smoked, fit for human consumption, whether in shell or not, live, fresh,...
030631Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not
030632Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, lobsters (Homarus spp.), whether in shell or not
030633Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, crabs, whether in shell or not
030634Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not
030635Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not
030636Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, shrimps and prawns excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not
030639Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.3, in shell or not
030691Crustaceans; rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030692Crustaceans; lobsters (Homarus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030693Crustaceans; crabs, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030694Crustaceans; Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030695Crustaceans; shrimps and prawns, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030699Crustaceans; smoked, whole, cooked or not, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.9, in shell or not
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 1.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Cote dIvoire USD 837.1 mNigeria USD 565.8 mEgypt USD 477.8 mCameroon USD 301.3 mGhana USD 294.8 mMauritius USD 242.4 mSouth Africa USD 177.9 mMorocco USD 164.3 m

Source: EC; EU Parliament · 2024; 2025

Sawn wood / timber

Minor RCA; ~70% forest cover · Maturity: Raw/sawn, under export moratorium · Competitiveness: Continental construction demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...
440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san
440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length
440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))
440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le
440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise
440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or
440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm
440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...
440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or
440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm
440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 9 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 728.6 mAlgeria USD 312.7 mMorocco USD 287.1 mSouth Africa USD 114.3 mLibya USD 46.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.3 mSenegal USD 36.2 m

Source: WITS; EIA; Mongabay · 2018; 2021

Bauxite / alumina

Boé ~113 Mt @ 44% Al2O3 (dated, secondary) · Maturity: Reserve only, undeveloped · Competitiveness: Large but no local smelting base
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 908 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260600Aluminium ores and concentrates
281810Aluminium oxide; artificial corundum
281820Aluminium oxide; other than artificial corundum
281830Aluminium hydroxide
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 529.7 mEgypt USD 181 mMozambique USD 62.1 mCameroon USD 59.1 mGhana USD 34.4 mTunisia USD 10.7 mMorocco USD 8.4 mNigeria USD 6.3 m

Source: USGS-cited secondary · 2010

Groundnuts

Historical/subsistence production · Maturity: Raw, subsistence-scale · Competitiveness: Modest
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 277.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120210Groundnuts in shell, not roasted or otherwise cooked
120220Shelled groundnuts, whether or not broken (excluding roasted or otherwise cooked)
120230Ground-nuts; seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, whether or not shelled or broken
120241Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, in shell
120242Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, shelled, whether or not broken,
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 132.8 mSouth Africa USD 33.3 mUganda USD 25.6 mRwanda USD 19 mMorocco USD 17 mLibya USD 8.7 mKenya USD 8 mTunisia USD 5.8 m

Source: WITS/secondary · 2018

Raw cashew nuts

8th-largest global producer; RCA>>1; ~90% of exports · Maturity: Raw, ~97% exported unprocessed · Competitiveness: Modest intra-African; mostly Asian processors
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 155.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080111Nuts, edible; coconuts, desiccated
080112Nuts, edible; coconuts, in the inner shell (endocarp)
080119Nuts, edible; coconuts, fresh or dried, other than desiccated or in the inner shell (endocarp)
080121Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, in shell
080122Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, shelled
080131Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, in shell
080132Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, shelled
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 38.1 mAlgeria USD 35.1 mMorocco USD 34.1 mSouth Africa USD 22.6 mLibya USD 5.8 mNigeria USD 4.3 mSomalia USD 3.1 mGhana USD 2.4 m

Source: FAO; USAID/LIFFT; BCEAO · 2021; 2023

Processed cashew kernels

Same crop base; shelling is value-add step · Maturity: Nascent, 12 units ~25% utilisation · Competitiveness: Growing African + global kernel demand
EMERGING
USD 94 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080132Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, shelled
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 28.3 mAlgeria USD 27.9 mEgypt USD 14.9 mSouth Africa USD 13.5 mLibya USD 3.4 mSomalia USD 2.9 mMauritius USD 1.1 mSeychelles USD 0.5 m

Source: CICC; UNCTAD · 2022

Phosphate rock & fertilizer

Farim 43.8 Mt @ 30% P2O5, high-grade undeveloped deposit · Maturity: Reserve only, no mine/processing · Competitiveness: High — SSA ~90% fertilizer import-dependent
EMERGING
USD 11.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251010Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; unground
251020Natural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and phosphatic chalk; ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 4.7 mSouth Africa USD 2.9 mTunisia USD 1.5 mCote dIvoire USD 1.4 mGhana USD 0.5 mUganda USD 0.3 mNigeria USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.2 m

Source: Itafos FS; AfDB phosphate factsheet · 2023; 2021

Graphite

Reported Tombali find, unverified · Maturity: None · Competitiveness: Rising battery demand
GREY
USD 5.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
250410Graphite; natural, in powder or in flakes
250490Graphite; natural, in other forms, excluding powder or flakes
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Guinea-Bissau imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Congo USD 2.6 mSouth Africa USD 0.9 mEgypt USD 0.3 mNiger USD 0.2 mTanzania USD 0.2 mGabon USD 0.2 mAlgeria USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: Press reports · 2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Guinea-Bissau is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Guinea-Bissau buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Guinea-Bissau is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 0.58 bn

Guinea-Bissau’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

9

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierGuinea-Bissau imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Fish & crustaceansEMERGINGUSD 1.1 mUSD 4.34 bn
Sawn wood / timberASPIRATIONALUSD 0.6 mUSD 1.78 bn
Crude petroleumGREYUSD 0 mUSD 11.08 bn
Bauxite / aluminaASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 908 m
GroundnutsASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 277.3 m
Raw cashew nutsSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 155.7 m
Processed cashew kernelsEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 94 m
Phosphate rock & fertilizerEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 11.9 m
GraphiteGREYUSD 0 mUSD 5.4 m

Left-hand column: what Guinea-Bissau itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Guinea-Bissau’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 9 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Guinea-Bissau’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Guinea-Bissau. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Guinea-Bissau’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Guinea-Bissau’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 5.71 bn
02Cote dIvoireUSD 3.72 bn
03EgyptUSD 3.18 bn
04SenegalUSD 993.1 m
05NigeriaUSD 576.6 m
06MoroccoUSD 539.3 m
07TunisiaUSD 524 m
08AlgeriaUSD 508.7 m
09GhanaUSD 457 m
10CameroonUSD 360.4 m
11MauritiusUSD 243.5 m
12LibyaUSD 64.1 m
13MozambiqueUSD 62.1 m
14ZambiaUSD 55.6 m
15SomaliaUSD 50.5 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Guinea-Bissau. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Guinea-Bissau would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Guinea-Bissau to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Phosphate finance and offtake

Secure project finance of ~US$308 million or more and an anchor offtaker, reach financial close and first production, then add downstream acid and fertiliser capacity to move from rock concentrate to finished fertiliser.

02

Bulk mineral export terminal

Build the Ponta Chugue mineral terminal, and cross-cutting deep-water port capacity at Buba, since the shallow Port of Bissau cannot handle bulk phosphate or bauxite at scale.

03

Reliable industrial power

Convert the OMVG interconnection allocation plus solar scale-up into dependable industrial power, as reliable power for processing is not yet assured even with imports.

04

Cashew shelling at scale

Scale domestic shelling well beyond the current ~3% processed share, with working-capital finance for processors and AfCFTA-enabled access to African kernel markets.

05

Fisheries sanitary accreditation

Achieve EU and sanitary accreditation (a laboratory exists but accreditation is incomplete), build cold-chain and landing and processing infrastructure, and shift from access-fee rents to domestic value capture.

06

Political stability and mining governance

Durable political stability and a credible mining-governance regime are preconditions across all sectors, given repeated coups and a licence history without development.

The binding constraints
·

Power Installed generation has historically been 15–28 MW with ~47% losses and ~20% access; even with OMVG imports, reliable industrial power for processing is not assured.

·

Logistics The Port of Bissau is shallow and small with no deep-water bulk terminal for phosphate or bauxite, and the Buba deep-water port and Ponta Chugue mineral terminal remain unbuilt.

·

Capital Flagship projects are unfinanced — Farim at ~US$308 million and Boé bauxite at ~US$500 million — and FDI into productive processing is minimal.

·

Skills Adult literacy is ~53% and tertiary enrolment only ~2.6%, with no minerals or fisheries processing skill base to draw on.

·

Governance and security Chronic political instability, repeated coups, a non-EITI petroleum regime and weak institutions are the principal deterrent across every sector.

·

Single-buyer, single-crop dependency Around 90% of exports are cashew and ~90–92% go to India, an extreme concentration risk compounded by degraded feedstock — timber under moratorium after over-logging and fisheries at risk of overexploitation.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Guinea-Bissau’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

An aspirational allocation is not a capability claim. Guinea-Bissau holds lines against which capability must still be built. Nothing here should be read as present capacity, and the instrument’s value to Guinea-Bissau lies in the demand certainty, not in near-term supply.

05

Power is a binding constraint on any heavy processing. Installed generation is around 15 to 28 MW with grid losses near 47 per cent and access of roughly 20 per cent. Even with OMVG imports, reliable industrial power for processing is not assured.

06

No bulk export terminal exists. The Port of Bissau is shallow and small, with no shore cranes and no cold storage, and cannot handle bulk mineral exports at scale. The Buba deep-water port and the Ponta Chugue mineral terminal are unbuilt, and Buba has been studied for decades without construction.

07

The flagship projects are unfinanced. Farim requires roughly US$308 million and the Boe bauxite project about US$500 million, neither of which has been raised, and foreign direct investment into productive processing is minimal.

08

The skills base for value addition does not exist. Adult literacy is around 52.9 per cent and tertiary gross enrolment about 2.6 per cent, with no minerals or fisheries processing skill base and no specialised technical or vocational cluster.

09

Governance instability is the principal deterrent across all sectors. Chronic political instability, repeated coups, a non-EITI petroleum regime and weak institutions recur as the central obstacle, alongside a fifteen-year history of the Farim licence changing hands without development.

10

Concentration risk is extreme on both crop and buyer. Roughly 90 per cent of exports are cashew and approximately 90 to 92 per cent go to India, while exports to other African countries are only around 4 to 5 per cent combined.

11

Fisheries value capture is blocked at the sanitary gate. The country cannot currently export fish to the EU because it does not meet EU sanitary requirements, only about 3 per cent of foreign-vessel catch is landed locally, and there is no national industrial fleet. A laboratory exists but accreditation is incomplete.

12

Stated value-addition targets have been missed before. The Terra Ranka plan for 2015 to 2020 targeted quadrupling cashew value-add and a 30 per cent domestic processing rate by 2025; the audit records that these targets were badly missed.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Guinea-Bissau's Draft 1 bundle rests on three endowments of genuine continental weight and one operational reality that qualifies all of them. The endowments are a world-scale cashew crop in which the country is the eighth-largest global producer, a phosphate deposit at Farim of exceptional grade against a region importing approximately 90 per cent of the fertiliser it consumes, and an Atlantic fishery estimated at 360,000 tonnes. The reality is that all three are today raw or unrealised: approximately 97 per cent of the cashew crop leaves in shell, Farim is a permitted reserve with no mine and no financing, and the fishery is harvested by foreign fleets with only about 3 per cent of catch landed locally and no sanitary accreditation for export. What must be proven, in sequence, is financial close and first production at Farim with the Ponta Chugue terminal and a power solution behind it; domestic shelling capacity scaled well beyond the current processed share, with reliable power and working-capital finance for processors; sanitary accreditation, cold-chain and landing infrastructure in fisheries; and, cutting across all three, deep-water port capacity, reliable grid power through OMVG and solar, and durable political stability. Until those conditions are met, the allocation is an instrument for building capability, not a statement of capacity held.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Guinea-Bissau is shown 9 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Guinea-Bissau to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2