Right of Supply — The Gambia

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Seedy Keita, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · The Gambia · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Keita,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for The Gambia — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why The Gambia is in this room

The Gambia's strongest endowment is the groundnut value chain: a centuries-old core crop carrying revealed comparative advantage above 1, and, unusually among its candidate categories, one where domestic plant actually exists at the Sarro/Denton Bridge mill, which decorticates groundnuts and presses them into crude oil and cake, with African Development Bank financing directed at lifting throughput from 40,000 to 65,000 tonnes of undecorticated groundnuts. Africa is a chronic structural net importer of edible oils and fats, and groundnut cake already has established regional offtake in Senegal, Mauritania and as far as Algeria. The honest constraint is equally clear: tonnage is low and volatile, with only 25,097 tonnes purchased by the state buyer in the 2025 season against national output of roughly 80,000 to 100,000 tonnes in good years; the state processor carries governance and financing difficulties and heavy subsidy dependence, with government subsidy alone at GMD 627.4 million; and electricity, at roughly 98 to 157 MW installed, thermal-heavy and among the world's most expensive, is a binding gate on any deepening of processing. The position is emerging-to-credible rather than an anchor.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to The Gambia, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for The Gambia

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

12draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

The Gambia’s draft bundle. 12 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Groundnuts in shell/kernels. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 strong contender · 6 emerging · 3 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for The Gambia is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 12 candidate lines proposed for The Gambia below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for The Gambia. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what The Gambia will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That The Gambia will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

12 lines

The Gambia’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for The Gambia at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and The Gambia’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from The Gambia’s own capability audit.

Heavy-mineral sands (ilmenite, zircon, rutile)

The 18.8 million tonne deposit containing about 1 million tonnes of heavy minerals is a 2005-vintage resource estimate, not current reserves or production. There is essentially no active large-scale mining and no domestic smelting or beneficiation; the historic 1956 to 1959 ilmenite operation produced raw concentrate only, and USGS records that mining does not play a significant role in the Gambian economy.

Raw base, industrial screen

Silica and industrial sand

The reported resource of over 50 million tonnes of quartz and silica sand across nine locations rests on national announcements from 2023 to 2025 rather than independent verification, and the audit records the material as raw and largely unmined. Coastal sand mining was largely banned in the 1990s for environmental protection.

Unverified volumes, aspirational tier

Clay and ceramic raw materials

About 3 million tonnes of kaolinitic and plastic clay is recorded as an unmined raw endowment with marginal continental demand, sourced to government statements rather than independent assessment.

Raw base, marginal demand

Offshore oil and gas

There is no commercial discovery, no production and no refining. The Samo-1 well was a dry hole in 2018 with oil shows, and BP exited block A1 in 2020 after a USD 29.3 million settlement for not drilling. A junior operator's estimate of up to 3 billion barrels across blocks A1 and A4 is an unverified Tier-2 figure and should not be treated as reserves.

No production, unverified estimate

Cashew nuts as a domestic supply claim

Cashew export figures are inflated by re-export and smuggling from Guinea-Bissau and Senegal. A World Bank note records that The Gambia exports cashew nuts although it only marginally produces them; national production is about 15,000 tonnes a year on roughly 20,000 hectares, and the nut is exported essentially raw.

Re-export distortion

Groundnut oil versus groundnuts in shell

The raw base is tiered stronger than the finished good: groundnuts in shell and kernels are rated strong, while crude and edible groundnut oil and groundnut cake are only emerging. Domestic capability sits at the intermediate stage of crude oil and cake, with refining, bottling and branding still to be built.

Capability inversion

08 · Endowment

What The Gambia actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for The Gambia. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

The Gambia's defining endowment is the groundnut value chain, the country's centuries-old core crop and the backbone of its domestic export basket. Groundnuts hold a revealed comparative advantage above 1 and accounted for 32.7 per cent of domestic exports on the 2019 baseline of the GIEPA National Export Strategy, ahead of cashew at 20.6 per cent, wood at 20.1 per cent and fish and fisheries at 13.6 per cent, together some 87 per cent of domestic exports. National groundnut output has run roughly 80,000 to 100,000 tonnes in good years. What distinguishes this crop from the country's other candidate categories is that domestic plant actually exists: the Sarro/Denton Bridge mill operated by GGC/NFSPM decorticates groundnuts and presses them into crude oil and cake, with historic milling also at Kaur, and an African Development Bank modernisation programme aimed at lifting mill throughput from 40,000 to 65,000 tonnes of undecorticated groundnuts.

The second endowment is marine. The Gambia sits on a productive Atlantic upwelling zone with the River Gambia behind it, and total fisheries production was about 53,719 tonnes on 2019 national and SeafoodSource figures. Three Chinese-owned fishmeal and fish-oil plants opened in 2016 at Gunjur, Sanyang and Kartong, and consume a large share of the small-pelagic catch, mostly for export to Asia. Fish is exported fresh and frozen alongside fishmeal, so beneficiation remains at the raw and intermediate stages. Agriculture overall represents some 23 to 25 per cent of GDP and about 75 per cent of livelihoods.

The third endowment is positional rather than physical. The Port of Banjul handles an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of the country's international trade, operates a duty-light entrepôt model, and is covered by a concession with Türkiye's Albayrak Group encompassing modernisation and a planned new deep-sea port at Sanyang. The Senegambia Bridge, opened in 2019, and the AfDB-supported Trans-Gambia Corridor improve north-south connectivity for Senegalese and regional traffic. Mineral endowment is modest by comparison: coastal heavy-mineral sands at Batukunku, Kartung and Sanyang carried combined measured, indicated and inferred resources of about 18.8 million tonnes containing roughly 1 million tonnes of heavy minerals at a 1 per cent cutoff, with national sources reporting over 50 million tonnes of quartz and silica sand across nine locations and about 3 million tonnes of kaolinitic clay. On economic complexity, the country's exact index value, rank and trajectory could not be confirmed from Harvard Atlas or OEC primary sources and are flagged grey; ACET classifies The Gambia a low economic transformer with a transformation index score of 17.6 out of 100 for 2000 to 2020.

The endowment in depth

The Gambia's mineral base is modest and essentially unworked. Coastal heavy-mineral sands at the Batukunku, Kartung and Sanyang deposits in the Brufut area held combined measured/indicated/inferred resources of about 18.8 Mt containing roughly 1 Mt of heavy minerals at a 1% cutoff, with an assemblage of about 71% ilmenite, 15% zircon, 3% rutile and 11% other (USGS Minerals Yearbook, 2005). A 1950s ilmenite operation ran only 1956–1959, and coastal sand mining was largely banned in the 1990s for environmental protection. National sources report over 50 Mt of quartz/silica sand across nine locations and about 3 Mt of kaolinitic clay (Government of The Gambia, 2023–2025). These are resources, not production: there is essentially no active large-scale mining and no domestic smelting or beneficiation, and USGS records that mining "does not play a significant role in the Gambian economy" (USGS, 2005).

Installed generation is small and thermal-dominated. NAWEC/EIB cite about 98 MW of national capacity (EIB, 2024), while other compilations cite about 157 MW including the Karpowership IPP (roughly 73% NAWEC, 27% IPP). The Jambur 23 MWp solar PV plant with 8 MWh of battery storage came on line in March 2024 under the USD 165m GERMP (World Bank/EIB/EU, 2024) — the first utility-scale ground-mounted solar in the country, lifting domestic capacity by about 20%. The solar resource is good, at about 3,000 sunshine hours a year and 4–5.5 kWh/m²/day, but electricity is among the most expensive in the world and historically unreliable. Offshore, blocks A1 (Eni signed 2024; BP exited in 2020 after a USD 29.3m settlement for not drilling), A2/A5 (FAR/Petronas; the Samo-1 well was a dry hole in 2018 with oil shows) and A4 (PetroNor) have delivered no commercial discovery, no production and no refining; a junior operator's estimate of up to 3 billion barrels across A1/A4 is an unverified Tier-2 figure and should not be treated as reserves.

Agriculture is the ballast of the economy at about 23–25% of GDP and roughly 75% of livelihoods (World Bank/AfDB, 2021–2023). Groundnuts are the historic backbone: national output has run roughly 80,000–100,000 MT in good years, yet the state buyer (GGC/NFSPM) purchased only 25,097 MT in the 2025 season at a farm-gate price of GMD 38,000/ton — a GMD 953.6m payout to farmers (Agriculture Minister Demba Sabally, The Point, 11 September 2025). Cashew production is about 15,000 MT/year across roughly 20,000 ha (2023), while rice output of about 22,706 MT meets only a fraction of about 398,364 MT of demand, leaving the country a net food importer. Fisheries production totals about 53,719 MT (2019), but three Chinese-owned fishmeal/fish-oil plants — Golden Lead at Gunjur, Nessim at Sanyang and JXYG at Kartong, all opened in 2016 — consume a large share of the small-pelagic catch: the Changing Markets Foundation (2019) found Golden Lead in Gunjur alone "accounted for approximately 40% of the country's total reported fish catches in 2016, roughly half of the fresh fish equivalent," mostly for export to Asia.

The industrial base is small and agro-processing led. Manufacturing is about 6% of GDP historically, with industry including construction at 14.69% of GDP (World Bank, 2024); assets include groundnut decortication and crude-oil/cake milling at the Sarro/Denton Bridge plant (GGC/NFSPM) and historically at Kaur, a wheat flour mill at Banjul port, the Banjul Brewery (JulBrew), a tannery, bakeries and small soap, soft-drinks and clothing lines, with AfDB modernisation aimed at lifting mill throughput from 40,000 to 65,000 t of undecorticated groundnuts. ACET rates The Gambia a "low economic transformer" (ATI score 17.6/100, 2000–2020). Human capital is thin: the labour force is small and very youthful, with about 60% under 25, adult literacy was 58.67% in 2022 (UNESCO; male 65.31%, female 52.25%), TVET and tertiary capacity are limited, and skilled-worker emigration, notably of health workers, is significant against large remittance inflows. Infrastructure centres on the Port of Banjul, which handles an estimated 80–90% of international trade (GPA/GRA, 2024; GIEPA cites about 90%) under a duty-light entrepôt model and an Albayrak Group concession covering modernisation plus a planned deep-sea port at Sanyang, while the Senegambia Bridge (2019) and the AfDB-supported Trans-Gambia Corridor improve north–south connectivity, though limited berth capacity, thin cold chain and seasonal flooding remain binding constraints.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

The Gambia's exact Economic Complexity Index value, rank and trajectory could not be confirmed from Harvard Atlas/OEC primary sources and are flagged GREY; the country appears to be absent from or unstable in the published ranking, plausibly because its tiny, re-export-distorted export base fails minimum-coverage thresholds. What is firmly established via OEC/Atlas is a small, undiversified basket with RCA greater than 1 concentrated in nuts (coconuts/Brazil nuts/cashews), wood, fish and molluscs and groundnut products, overlaid by a heavy re-export layer of petroleum, sugar, woven cotton and footwear that reflects the entrepôt model, and a "low economic transformer" classification (ACET ATI 17.6/100, 2000–2020).

Feasible diversification therefore rests on capability-adjacency logic rather than a published complexity outlook. It points to deepening the existing agro-processing base — refined and packaged groundnut oil, groundnut cake/meal for animal feed, fish products and salt — rather than moving into complex manufactures. The adjacencies that already exist in the export basket, not a modelled product-space position, are the honest guide to where The Gambia can credibly climb.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

The strongest continental supply position is groundnut oil and groundnut cake/meal (HS1508 plus HS2305), and the defensible case rests on a combination of criteria rather than raw endowment alone. Groundnuts are The Gambia's centuries-old core crop and a standing RCA-greater-than-1 export (GIEPA National Export Strategy, 2021); unlike most candidate categories, domestic processing plant actually exists — the Sarro/Denton Bridge mill (GGC/NFSPM) decorticates and presses groundnuts into crude oil and cake, and AfDB financed modernisation to lift mill throughput toward 65,000 t (AfDB; NFSPM, 2023). Continental demand is real, because Africa is a chronic structural net importer of edible oils and fats (FAO, 2011; IndexBox, 2024) and groundnut cake has an established regional animal-feed market in Senegal, Mauritania and as far as Algeria (NFSPM, 2023), so cross-border offtake already exists and product moves by river barge to Banjul and onward; the honest next step up the ladder is refining, bottling and branding oil for retail rather than shipping crude.

The limits are material and must be stated plainly. Groundnut tonnage is chronically low and volatile, with only 25,097 MT purchased in 2025, alongside aflatoxin and quality-compliance gaps, high energy costs and the state processor's governance, financial and subsidy troubles: Minister Demba Sabally told the National Assembly that "the government subsidy alone amounted to GMD 627.4 million…essential to bridge the gap between the prices paid to farmers and the prices at which groundnuts are sold on the international market" (The Point, September 2025), with further competition from cheaper palm and soy oil imports. The position is therefore EMERGING-to-credible rather than an established anchor, and the nearest alternatives are re-export and entrepôt logistics via the Port of Banjul, which is STRONG today but a services and transit role rather than manufacturing, and fish and fishery products, which are EMERGING but constrained by overfishing, the fishmeal diversion and weak SPS and cold-chain compliance.

Current reality

The Gambia is a very small, agriculture- and services-dependent economy: nominal GDP of about USD 2.5 billion, a population of 2,822,093 as of 1 July 2025, GDP per capita near USD 865 and real growth of 5.7 per cent. Total merchandise exports were only about USD 83 million in 2023, and re-exports constitute over 80 per cent of that total, dominated by re-exported petroleum products at roughly 72 per cent of 2023 export value, or about USD 60 million. Intra-African exports were about 41 per cent of the total. Manufacturing is around 6 per cent of GDP on historic figures, with industry including construction at 14.69 per cent in 2024. The industrial base is small and agro-processing led: groundnut decortication and crude-oil and cake milling, a wheat flour mill at Banjul port, the Banjul Brewery, a tannery, bakeries, and soap, soft drinks and clothing. No special economic zone is operational at industrial scale.

Realistically, The Gambia is positioned as a niche regional supplier of groundnut oil and groundnut cake or meal, plus fish products and logistics and re-export services. It is not a raw-mineral or heavy-manufacturing supplier: there is essentially no active large-scale mining and no domestic smelting or beneficiation, and coastal sand mining was largely banned in the 1990s for environmental protection. Installed generation is small and thermal-dominated, cited at about 98 MW by NAWEC and the EIB and at about 157 MW in other compilations including the Karpowership IPP; electricity is among the most expensive in the world and historically unreliable. The 23 MWp Jambur solar plant with 8 MWh of battery storage became operational in March 2024 under the USD 165 million GERMP, the first utility-scale ground-mounted solar in the country, raising domestic capacity by about 20 per cent. Rice output of about 22,706 tonnes meets only a fraction of demand of about 398,364 tonnes, so the country is a net food importer.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 12 candidate lines · will change

The Gambia’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from The Gambia’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what The Gambia will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How The Gambia’s 12 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 1Emerging 6Aspirational 3Grey 2

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Horticulture (mango/fruit/veg)

Climate + NES priority · Maturity: Raw/lightly processed · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 473.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

080410Fruit, edible; dates, fresh or dried

080420Fruit, edible; figs, fresh or dried

080430Fruit, edible; pineapples, fresh or dried

080440Fruit, edible; avocados, fresh or dried

080450Fruit, edible; guavas, mangoes and mangosteens, fresh or dried

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 267.6 mEgypt USD 35.2 mSomalia USD 30.2 mNigeria USD 28.1 mGhana USD 19.3 mSouth Africa USD 11.9 mMauritania USD 9.5 mDjibouti USD 8 m

Source: GIEPA NES · 2021

Sea/marine salt

Coastal evaporation; in GBoS top exports · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate regional

GREY

USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: GBoS · 2024

Groundnuts in shell/kernels

Core crop, RCA>1 · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 277.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

120210Groundnuts in shell, not roasted or otherwise cooked

120220Shelled groundnuts, whether or not broken (excluding roasted or otherwise cooked)

120230Ground-nuts; seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, whether or not shelled or broken

120241Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, in shell

120242Ground-nuts; other than seed, not roasted or otherwise cooked, shelled, whether or not broken,

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 132.8 mSouth Africa USD 33.3 mUganda USD 25.6 mRwanda USD 19 mMorocco USD 17 mLibya USD 8.7 mKenya USD 8 mTunisia USD 5.8 m

Source: GIEPA NES; WITS · 2021–2023

Fish & fishery products

Atlantic upwelling + River Gambia · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 161.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030211Fish; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhyn

030212Fresh or chilled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta,...

030213Fish; fresh or chilled, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tsch

030214Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0

030219Fish; fresh or chilled, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish off

030221Fish; fresh or chilled, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excl

030222Fish; fresh or chilled, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of s

030223Fish; fresh or chilled, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030224Fish; fresh or chilled, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish o

030229Fish; fresh or chilled, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.2, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offa

030231Fish; fresh or chilled, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edibl

030232Fish; fresh or chilled, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal

030233Fish; fresh or chilled, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030234Fish; fresh or chilled, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030235Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030236Fish; fresh or chilled, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030239Fish; fresh or chilled, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030240Fresh or chilled herrings (Clupea harengus, clupea pallasii)

030241Fish; fresh or chilled, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030242Fish; fresh or chilled, anchovies (Engraulis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030243Fish; fresh or chilled, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030244Fish; fresh or chilled, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030245Fish; fresh or chilled, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030246Fresh or chilled cobia "Rachycentron canadum"

030247Fish; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030249Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030250Fresh or chilled cod (gadus morhua, gadus ogac, gadus macrocephalus)

030251Fish; fresh or chilled, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030252Fish; fresh or chilled, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030253Fish; fresh or chilled, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030254Fish; fresh or chilled, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030255Fish; fresh or chilled, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030256Fish; fresh or chilled, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis),excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030259Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030261Fresh or chilled sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.),...

030262Fresh or chilled haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030264Fresh or chilled mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030265Fresh or chilled dogfish and other sharks

030269Fresh or chilled freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack...

030270Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030271Fish; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030272Fish; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030273Fish; fresh or chilled, Carp (as specified by the WCO.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030274Fish; fresh or chilled, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030279Fish; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030281Fish; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030282Fish; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030283Fish; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030284Fish; fresh or chilled, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030285Fish; fresh or chilled, seabream (Sparidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030289Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in heading 0302, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99

030290Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes

030291Fish; fresh or chilled, livers, roes and milt

030292Fish; fresh or chilled, shark fins

030299Fish; fresh or chilled, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 40.6 mSouth Africa USD 32.6 mMorocco USD 27.9 mGhana USD 19.5 mLibya USD 15.2 mAlgeria USD 3.7 mTunisia USD 3.1 mDR Congo USD 2.4 m

Source: SeafoodSource; FAO · 2019

Cashew nuts (raw)

Growing crop + entrepôt re-export · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Large

EMERGING

USD 155.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

080111Nuts, edible; coconuts, desiccated

080112Nuts, edible; coconuts, in the inner shell (endocarp)

080119Nuts, edible; coconuts, fresh or dried, other than desiccated or in the inner shell (endocarp)

080121Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080122Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, shelled

080131Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080132Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, shelled

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 38.1 mAlgeria USD 35.1 mMorocco USD 34.1 mSouth Africa USD 22.6 mLibya USD 5.8 mNigeria USD 4.3 mSomalia USD 3.1 mGhana USD 2.4 m

Source: OEC; UNCTAD; World Bank · 2016–2022

Wood (rough/sawn)

Among top exports, partly re-export · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Moderate

GREY

USD 125.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

440310Wood in the rough, treated with paint, stains, creosote or other preservatives (excluding rough-cut...

440311Wood; coniferous species, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared; treated with pai

440312Wood; non-coniferous species, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared; treated with

440320Coniferous wood in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared...

440321Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squ

440322Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squ

440323Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or

440324Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or

440325Wood; coniferous species n.e.c. in headings 4403.21 or 4403.23, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood

440326Wood; coniferous species n.e.c in headings 4403.22 or 4403.24, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood,

440341Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau

440342Wood, tropical; teak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440349Wood, tropical; other than dark red meranti, light red meranti meranti bakau and teak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440391Wood; oak, in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440392Beech "Fagus spp." in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared...

440393Wood; of beech (Fagus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which the smallest cross-sectional dimension is 15 cm or more

440394Wood; of beech (Fagus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which any cross-sectional dimension is less than 15 cm

440395Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which the smallest cross-sectional dimension is 15 cm or more

440396Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, of which any cross-sectional dimension is less than 15 cm

440397Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440398Wood; of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus spp.), in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated

440399Wood; in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared, untreated, n.e.c. in heading no. 4403

The Gambia imported USD 0.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 29.6 mBotswana USD 13.5 mRwanda USD 10.9 mAlgeria USD 8.8 mNamibia USD 8.2 mZambia USD 7.1 mTanzania USD 6.2 mSouth Africa USD 6 m

Source: OEC; GIEPA · 2021–2022

Fishmeal & fish oil

Operating fishmeal plants · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Large (mostly extra-African)

EMERGING

USD 113.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

230110Flours, meals and pellets; of meat or meat offal, greaves

230120Flours, meals and pellets; of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 39.3 mNigeria USD 30.6 mZambia USD 11.3 mTunisia USD 7.3 mZimbabwe USD 6.8 mMozambique USD 6.3 mEgypt USD 4.4 mGhana USD 3.1 m

Source: Frontiers; Changing Markets · 2019–2023

Clay/ceramic raw materials

~3 Mt kaolinitic + plastic clay · Maturity: Raw (unmined) · Competitiveness: Marginal

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 99.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250700Kaolin and other kaolinic clays; whether or not calcined

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 48.3 mMorocco USD 9.4 mNigeria USD 7.3 mTunisia USD 7.1 mSouth Africa USD 6.8 mAlgeria USD 6.5 mTanzania USD 3.6 mUganda USD 2.2 m

Source: Govt of The Gambia · 2023–2025

Silica/industrial sand

>50 Mt quartz-sand resource · Maturity: Raw (largely unmined) · Competitiveness: Moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 27.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250510Sands; natural, silica and quartz sands, whether or not coloured

250590Sands; natural, (other than silica and quartz sands), whether or not coloured, (other than metal-bearing sands of chapte

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Morocco USD 7.4 mNigeria USD 3.3 mTunisia USD 1.8 mAngola USD 1.7 mSenegal USD 1 mCote dIvoire USD 1 mSouth Africa USD 0.9 mEgypt USD 0.9 m

Source: Govt of The Gambia · 2023–2025

Heavy-mineral sands

~1 Mt HM in 18.8 Mt resource · Maturity: Raw endowment, not produced · Competitiveness: Marginal–moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 13.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

261400Titanium ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 6.6 mEgypt USD 3.2 mMorocco USD 1.1 mAlgeria USD 1 mTunisia USD 0.4 mCameroon USD 0.3 mEthiopia USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS · 2005

Groundnut cake/oilcake (feed)

Milling by-product with regional offtake · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate–large regional feed

EMERGING

USD 2.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

230500Oil-cake and other solid residues; whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of gro

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Cameroon USD 2 mCongo USD 0.3 mBurundi USD 0.1 mBotswana USD 0.1 m

Source: NFSPM/Foroyaa; AfDB · 2023

Groundnut oil (crude/edible)

Historic groundnut crop + Sarro/Denton mill · Maturity: Intermediate (crude); next refined/packaged · Competitiveness: Large (Africa net edible-oil importer)

EMERGING

USD 1.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

150810Vegetable oils; ground-nut oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

150890Vegetable oils; ground-nut oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

The Gambia imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 0.5 mEgypt USD 0.1 mEthiopia USD 0.1 mTogo USD 0.1 mCentral African Rep USD 0.1 mNamibia USD 0.1 m

Source: World Bank/AfDB; FAO · 2011–2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for The Gambia is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What The Gambia buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: The Gambia is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 2.38 bn

The Gambia’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	The Gambia imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Wood (rough/sawn)	GREY	USD 0.5 m	USD 125.8 m
Horticulture (mango/fruit/veg)	EMERGING	USD 0.3 m	USD 473.4 m
Sea/marine salt	GREY	USD 0.1 m	USD 303.1 m
Groundnuts in shell/kernels	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 277.3 m
Fish & fishery products	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 161.4 m
Cashew nuts (raw)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 155.7 m
Fishmeal & fish oil	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 113.9 m
Clay/ceramic raw materials	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 99.7 m
Silica/industrial sand	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 27.6 m
Heavy-mineral sands	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 13.1 m
Groundnut cake/oilcake (feed)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 2.6 m
Groundnut oil (crude/edible)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 1.2 m

Left-hand column: what The Gambia itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What The Gambia’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 12 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times The Gambia’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to The Gambia. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

The Gambia’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind The Gambia’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01MoroccoUSD 364.5 m

02AlgeriaUSD 187.9 m

03South AfricaUSD 180.1 m

04EgyptUSD 159.8 m

05NigeriaUSD 152.4 m

06GhanaUSD 57.2 m

07UgandaUSD 49.7 m

08SomaliaUSD 33.3 m

09ZambiaUSD 32 m

10RwandaUSD 29.9 m

11LibyaUSD 29.7 m

12TunisiaUSD 25.5 m

13ZimbabweUSD 25.3 m

14Cote dIvoireUSD 23.9 m

15MalawiUSD 15.1 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to The Gambia. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions The Gambia would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for The Gambia to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Stabilised, quality-certified groundnut supply

Groundnut output stabilised and lifted well above the roughly 80–100k MT range with aflatoxin control and certified quality, so mills run near capacity.

Refining, bottling and branding lines completed

NFSPM or private investors complete oil refining, bottling and branding lines and resolve governance and financing, moving from crude-oil export to retail-grade product.

Reliable, cheaper power

Scaling solar plus storage beyond Jambur and securing WAPP interconnection to make processing cost-competitive.

Port and cold-chain upgrades delivered

Banjul port and cold-chain upgrades and the Sanyang deep-sea port delivered, lowering delivery cost across borders.

SPS and quality systems to regional/EU standard

SPS and quality systems for fish and horticulture brought to regional and EU standard.

AfCFTA rules-of-origin and offtake formalised

AfCFTA rules-of-origin and regional offtake agreements, especially for groundnut cake and feed, formalised.

The binding constraints

Power Generation is small at roughly 98–157 MW, thermal-heavy, among the world's most expensive and historically unreliable — a binding gate on any heavy or cold-chain processing.

Logistics A single principal port with limited berth and quay capacity and congestion, a thin cold chain and seasonal flooding; the deep-sea port and 4th expansion remain prospective.

Capital Flagship projects are donor-financed, manufacturing FDI is limited and domestic capital markets are thin.

Skills Adult literacy is about 59% (UNESCO, 2022), the TVET and tertiary base is weak, and skilled-worker emigration drains capacity.

Feedstock and single-buyer dependency Groundnut volumes are volatile and subsidy-dependent, cashew exports are partly re-export and smuggling, and fishmeal feedstock pressures local food security — Amnesty International estimated Gambia's fishmeal output "was around 3,700 tonnes in 2018, which would have required 16,600 tonnes of wild fish – equivalent to one third of the country's total catch."

Governance and scale A very small economy with state-processor governance issues and AfCFTA rules-of-origin compliance unproven.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in The Gambia’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Power is a binding gate, not a background irritant. Installed generation is roughly 98 to 157 MW, thermal-heavy, among the world's most expensive and historically unreliable. The audit treats this as a binding constraint on any heavy or cold-chain processing, and requires reliable, cheaper power through solar and storage beyond Jambur plus WAPP interconnection before processing can be cost-competitive.

Feedstock volumes are volatile and subsidy-dependent. National groundnut output runs roughly 80,000 to 100,000 tonnes in good years, yet the state buyer purchased only 25,097 tonnes in the 2025 season at a farm-gate price of GMD 38,000 per ton, a GMD 953.6 million payout. Output would have to be stabilised and lifted well above the 80,000 to 100,000 tonne band, with aflatoxin control and certified quality, for mills to run near capacity.

The anchor processor carries governance and financing risk. NFSPM is the state anchor processor and the audit records governance and financial troubles alongside heavy subsidy dependence, with government subsidy alone at GMD 627.4 million. NFSPM or private investors would have to complete oil refining, bottling and branding lines and resolve governance and financing to move from crude-oil export to retail-grade product.

Logistics rest on a single principal port. The Port of Banjul carries an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of international trade with limited berth and quay capacity, congestion, dated equipment, limited cold chain and seasonal flooding. The deep-sea port at Sanyang and the fourth expansion remain prospective, and delivery costs across borders depend on their completion.

Capital is donor-dependent and manufacturing FDI is thin. Flagship investments are largely donor-financed, including the GERMP energy programme, the AfDB groundnut modernisation and Trans-Gambia corridor, and the Albayrak port concession. FDI into manufacturing and processing is limited and domestic capital markets are thin.

The skills base is shallow. Adult literacy was 58.67 per cent in 2022, male 65.31 per cent and female 52.25 per cent. TVET and tertiary capacity are thin, skilled-worker emigration, notably of health workers, is significant, and specialised industrial skill clusters are largely absent.

Compliance and rules of origin are unproven. AfCFTA rules-of-origin compliance is unproven for a very small economy with a heavy re-export overlay. SPS and quality systems for fish and horticulture would have to be brought to regional or EU standard, and regional offtake agreements, particularly for groundnut cake and feed, would have to be formalised.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

The Gambia's Draft 1 bundle rests on three things the audit can evidence rather than assert: a groundnut value chain with surviving domestic milling capacity at the intermediate stage of crude oil and cake, a coastal and riverine fishery on a productive Atlantic upwelling zone, and a re-export and entrepôt position at the Port of Banjul which handles an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of national trade and is the only category besides raw groundnuts rated strong today. It does not rest on minerals, hydrocarbons or heavy manufacturing, all of which the audit places at raw, unmined or aspirational status. What must be proven is the step up the ladder rather than the endowment itself: groundnut output stabilised and lifted above the 80,000 to 100,000 tonne band with aflatoxin control and certified quality so that mills run near capacity; refining, bottling and branding lines completed and the state processor's governance and financing resolved; reliable and cheaper power delivered by scaling solar and storage beyond Jambur and by WAPP interconnection; Banjul port and cold-chain upgrades and the Sanyang deep-sea port delivered; SPS and quality systems for fish and horticulture brought to regional or EU standard; and AfCFTA rules of origin and regional offtake agreements formalised. Until those are demonstrated, the honest description is capability under construction on a real base, not capacity in hand.

What is not fixed is the bundle. The Gambia is shown 12 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask The Gambia to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where The Gambia stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for The Gambia?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect The Gambia’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for The Gambia?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.