Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
GabonBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Gabon — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
15
Draft 1 candidate lines for Gabon
The Minister’s brief · for Thierry Minko · Gabon
Minister Minko, Gabon holds what no other African nation can claim: okoumé, present in more than four-fifths of your forests, from which Gabon has historically supplied up to ninety per cent of the world's stock. That endowment is already converted — 589,181 cubic metres of veneer milled in 2022, and, with some eighty-four processing firms at Nkok, Gabon is the world's fifth-largest veneer exporter and the only African name on that list. This is installed capability, not prospect. The continent imports the very panels your mills already make; Africa's USD 1.4 billion plywood market is a claim you can press today. The Right of Supply gives Gabon a twenty-five-year first right to serve that demand — never a subsidy, never a captive contract, for Match-or-Release means you hold it only while you meet the market's price. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional; tell us where it errs, Minister, and your correction is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Gabon
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Thierry Minko, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Gabon · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Minko,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Gabon — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Gabon is in this room

Gabon's strongest endowment is its forest and the processing capacity built on it. Okoumé occurs in more than 80 per cent of the country's forests, Gabon has historically supplied up to 90 per cent of the world's okoumé, and FAO/FAOSTAT ranks Gabon the world's fifth-largest exporter of veneer sheets and the only African country in the top exporters list. This is installed, operating capability rather than prospect: 197 processing units nationally by 2020, some 84 wood-processing firms in the Nkok Special Economic Zone, and 2022 output of 589,181 cubic metres of veneer and 125,831 cubic metres of plywood, all built on the 2010 raw-log export ban that forced domestic value addition. The honest constraint is power and corridor reliability. Installed capacity of 704 MW in 2023 stood below demand of 1,039 MW at a production cost well above Cameroon's, a single railway carries both the timber and the manganese, and okoumé regeneration on 25-year rotations remains unproven at commercial scale. Gabon's larger manganese endowment, second in the world at 4.6 million tonnes of manganese content, is at present a raw-export position rather than a processed supply position.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Gabon, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Gabon

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
15draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Gabon’s draft bundle. 15 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Manganese ore & concentrates. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 continental anchor · 4 strong contender · 6 emerging · 4 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Gabon is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 15 candidate lines proposed for Gabon below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Gabon. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Gabon will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Gabon will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
15 lines
Gabon’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Gabon at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Gabon’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Gabon’s own capability audit.

Manganese ore and concentrates (HS 2602)

Gabon is the world's second-largest producer at 4.6 million tonnes of manganese content, but the audit classes this as a raw continental anchor and a weak supply position in the framework's terms because it is exported raw with minimal domestic processing. Eramet transforms most Gabonese ore into ferroalloys at plants in Norway, France and the United States rather than in Gabon.

Raw base · industrial screen

Tropical plywood as a world number two claim

The audit records that the "world's number two tropical plywood" claim is self-published by the SEZ operator, Arise, and is not corroborated by ITTO, which ranks Indonesia and Vietnam ahead in plywood. Gabon's independently verified strength is in veneer sheets, at fifth in the world per FAO 2024, not plywood as such.

Source corroboration

Manganese metal from Gabon

The 20,000 tonnes a year manganese-metal line at the Complexe Métallurgique de Moanda was halted in September 2020 and converted to manganese oxide. The audit states that any "manganese metal from Gabon" figure should be treated as defunct.

Capability inversion

Refined petroleum products (HS 2710)

SOGARA at Port-Gentil, with a nameplate of about 1.2 million tonnes a year, processed roughly 910,000 tonnes in 2024 but met only around 55 per cent of domestic fuel demand, with Gabon importing the balance. The audit records the status as domestic-supply-constrained, not an export refiner, and tiers the category as aspirational.

Scale-matching

Iron ore from Belinga (HS 2601)

Belinga made a first showcase shipment in December 2023 and is in an early phase of roughly 2 million tonnes per annum with a multi-year study toward potential large scale. The audit records the status as early-stage, raw ore only, and instructs that Belinga be treated as announced or under development, not operational.

Raw base · industrial screen

Niobium and rare earth oxides from Mabounié (HS 2825, 2846)

Certified resources of 2.3 million tonnes of niobium pentoxide and 2 million tonnes of rare earth oxides exist, but the deposit is not in production and requires a complex hydrometallurgical process still being made commercially viable. The audit records the beneficiation stage as endowment only, with thin or limited African demand.

Incumbency
08 · Endowment
What Gabon actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Gabon. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Gabon's defining endowment is forest. Forest cover stands at 91.2 per cent of land area (World Bank, 2023), and okoumé, the flagship species, occurs in more than 80 per cent of Gabon's forests; Gabon has historically supplied up to 90 per cent of the world's okoumé (Forest Trends, September 2024). That base has been converted into installed processing capacity rather than left as logs. In 2022 the country produced roughly 4 million cubic metres of logs (okoumé about 58 per cent), 1,297,580 cubic metres of sawnwood, 589,181 cubic metres of veneer and 125,831 cubic metres of plywood (US ITA and Gabonese official data). FAO/FAOSTAT (2024) ranks Gabon the world's fifth-largest exporter of veneer sheets, at 7 per cent of world exports, and the only African country in the top exporters list — a position independently corroborated by the EU-funded Timber Trade Portal. By 2020 there were 197 processing units nationally, more than 70 of them in the Nkok Special Economic Zone, which by itself hosts some 84 wood-processing firms among approximately 144 investor companies from 16 countries.

The second endowment is manganese. Gabon was the world's second-largest producer in 2024 at 4.6 million tonnes of manganese content (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025), behind South Africa at 7.4 million tonnes and ahead of Australia at 2.8 million tonnes. Ore grade is exceptionally high at 44 to 50 per cent manganese, and Comilog, an Eramet subsidiary, produced 6.8 million tonnes of high-grade ore on a gross basis in 2024. Gabon was the single largest source of total United States manganese imports in 2024, at 24 per cent. Three operators work the deposits: Comilog, which accounts for more than 70 per cent of output, CICMHZ and Nouvelle Gabon Mining. Domestic beneficiation, however, is limited. The Complexe Métallurgique de Moanda carries a nameplate capacity of 65,000 tonnes a year of silicomanganese alongside a 20,000 tonnes a year manganese-metal plant, but that metal line was halted in September 2020 and converted to manganese oxide for agricultural, battery and welding uses, at roughly 7,000 tonnes in 2022. Eramet transforms most Gabonese ore into ferroalloys at plants in Norway, France and the United States, not in Gabon.

On complexity, Gabon ranks 105th of 130 on the Economic Complexity Index (Trade, OEC 2024) and 124th of 138 on the research-based index — a low-complexity, undiversified economy with a broadly flat or declining long-run trajectory. Revealed comparative advantage above one is confirmed in manganese ore, crude petroleum, sawn wood, veneer sheets and plywood. The literature identifies wood products as the proven diversification path, with sustained comparative advantage between 2001 and 2016 (Islamic Development Bank). The feasible adjacencies lie within the wood chain, from veneer to plywood to furniture and particle board, and within the manganese chain, from ore to silicomanganese and ferromanganese. Both are chains Gabon has partially entered. Higher-complexity diversification is constrained by the small labour force, power deficits and a thin manufacturing base.

The endowment in depth

Gabon's endowment is anchored by world-class high-grade manganese. It was the world's #2 manganese producer in 2024 at 4.6 million tonnes Mn-content (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025), behind South Africa (7.4 Mt) and ahead of Australia (2.8 Mt); by the USGS February 2026 summary the Mn-content ranking had shifted to South Africa, Gabon, Ghana, Australia. On a gross-ore basis, Comilog — the Eramet subsidiary responsible for more than 70% of national output — produced 6.8 Mt of high-grade ore in 2024, down 8% on 2023. Ore grade is exceptionally high at 44–50% Mn; USGS lists reserves at 61 million tonnes Mn-content, with national sources citing ~150–250 Mt gross ore. Three operators work the deposits: Comilog, CICMHZ (Chinese) and Nouvelle Gabon Mining (state co-owned). Gabon was the single largest source of total US manganese imports in 2024 at 24%. Domestic beneficiation, however, is thin: Comilog runs the Complexe Industriel de Moanda (sinter, since 2000) and the Complexe Métallurgique de Moanda (CMM, since 2014/2015), the latter with a 65,000 t/yr silicomanganese nameplate and a 20,000 t/yr manganese-metal plant that was halted in September 2020 and converted to manganese oxide (~7,000 t MnO in 2022); the last CMM alloy figures found are 49,934 t (2018) and 47,762 t (2019). Eramet transforms most Gabonese ore into ferroalloys at plants in Norway, France (Dunkerque) and the USA (Marietta), not in Gabon. The remaining mineral base is early-stage: the Belinga hematite deposit in Ogooué-Ivindo (~1 billion tonnes cited) saw a first showcase shipment by Fortescue/Ivindo Iron in December 2023 and sits in an early ~2 Mtpa phase; the Mabounié polymetallic deposit (Comilog/Maboumine) holds certified resources of niobium (2.3 Mt Nb₂O₅ at 1.2%) and rare earth oxides (2 Mt REO at ~1%), plus tantalum, uranium, phosphate and scandium, but is not in production; and a gold refinery (ROG) opened in the Nkok SEZ in June 2023 alongside artisanal output and the Managem/Bakoudou mine.

The energy endowment is mature and declining. Gabon is an OPEC member with ~2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (2024) and production of 214,713 bpd in 2024, ranking #35 in the world and in structural decline from the 1996 peak of 365,000 bpd as fields mature; more than 70% of reserves are offshore, with deepwater pre-salt exploration ongoing (BP, ExxonMobil MoUs), and gas reserves of ~26 bcm at end-2024. The state Gabon Oil Company expanded via the 2024 Assala acquisition. Refining rests on a single plant — SOGARA at Port-Gentil (since 1967), nameplate ~1.2 Mt/yr (~24,000 bpd), processing Rabi Light — which handled ~910,000 t in 2024 but met only ~55% of domestic fuel demand, with a two-phase modernisation (debottlenecking by 2026–27; new refinery and clean AFRI-6 fuels by 2030) and a CRBC-led new-refinery MoU signed in 2025. Power is a binding weakness: installed capacity was ~704 MW in 2023 against demand of ~1,039 MW, split roughly hydro ~46% (~330.6 MW) and thermal ~54%. Electricity access reached 94.1% in 2023 — among Africa's highest — yet with chronic shortages, a utility (SEEG) crisis (placed under temporary administration August 2024–May 2025) and high production cost (CFAF 122.9/kWh versus CFAF 78.5 in Cameroon). Hydro potential is large, estimated at 5,000–6,000 MW; Karpowership added 150 MW (floating, 2024), Kinguélé Aval (34.1 MW) is the first IPP under construction, and a first 30 MW phase of Ayémé Plaine solar was commissioned in October 2024.

Forestry is the standout endowment. Forest cover is 91.2% of land area (World Bank, 2023), with okoumé (Aucoumea klaineana) the flagship species: per Forest Trends (September 2024) it occurs in more than 80% of Gabon's forests, and Gabon has historically supplied up to 90% of the world's okoumé. 2022 production was ~4 million m³ of logs (okoumé ~58%), 1,297,580 m³ of sawnwood, 589,181 m³ of veneer and 125,831 m³ of plywood, worked through 197 processing units by 2020 (70+ in the Nkok SEZ). Per FAO/FAOSTAT (2024) Gabon is the world's 5th-largest veneer-sheet exporter (7% of world exports) and the only African country in the top-exporter list, independently corroborated by the EU-funded Timber Trade Portal. Palm oil adds a second agro-industrial pillar: Olam Palm Gabon (a 60:40 JV with the state) is Africa's largest RSPO-certified palm oil producer with ~64,000 ha planted (of a ~144,000–202,000 ha concession), three mills, a kernel-crushing plant and an edible-oil refinery (Cusin'Or brand), full RSPO certification achieved in January 2024, plus a planned biodiesel plant and Owendo refinery and a parallel rubber JV (~11,000 ha). Food security, by contrast, is weak: Gabon imports an estimated 60% of food needs and is acutely dependent in poultry, importing an average of 74,319 tonnes of chicken meat annually 2020–2024 against local production of just ~4,150 tonnes (~5% of consumption), with a 2024 poultry import bill of USD 104 million (poultry was Gabon's #1 import in 2024); agriculture, forestry and fishing was ~6.4% of GDP in 2020.

The existing industrial base is extraction-dominated and shallow beyond it. Manufacturing value added was 19.62% of GDP in 2024 and industry overall ~50% of GDP — one of Africa's highest — but these figures embed oil refining and ore processing, and genuine manufacturing is thin. The Gabon Special Economic Zone (GSEZ/Nkok), a PPP between Arise IIP and the state launched in 2010 (1,126–1,350 ha, 27 km from Libreville), hosts ~144 investor companies from 16 countries across 22 sectors, including ~84 wood-processing firms, and produces veneer, plywood, sawn wood, furniture, particle board (Nature Panels, the first in Central Africa, since 2023), steel rebar and pharmaceuticals; Nkok won the Financial Times fDi Intelligence "best SEZ for wood production" award in 2020, and two further zones — Ikolo (2021) and Mpassa-Lebombi (2022) — have launched, with CIMAF running a cement-grinding plant near Libreville. Human capital is constrained by a small labour force (~2.5 million population; ~20.2% unemployment, 2025), with the Moanda School of Mines and Metallurgy (opened 2016, ~150 trainees/year, Comilog–government funded) tying skills directly to the manganese chain but the broader TVET and tertiary base limited. Infrastructure offers a structural coastal advantage through two main ports — Owendo near Libreville (a USD 300M multipurpose terminal opened 2017, plus Comilog's dedicated mineral terminal) and Port-Gentil (oil hub) — served by the 648 km single-track standard-gauge Trans-Gabon Railway, operated by Setrag (Comilog/Eramet subsidiary, Meridiam 40% since 2021), which carries ~90% of Gabon's manganese and moved ~10.9 Mt of freight in 2022; a modernisation programme (PRN1 ~€315M; PRN2/PMS ~USD 580M, to 2028) aims to lift capacity from ~12 Mt to 19–21 Mt/yr, though frequent derailments, aged track and a largely unpaved road network beyond the national routes remain reliability risks.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Gabon is a low-complexity, undiversified economy. It ranked #105 of 130 on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI, Trade) in 2024 and #124 of 138 on the research-based ECI (OEC, 2024), with a broadly flat-to-declining long-run trajectory given persistent commodity concentration. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) is confirmed in manganese ore (HS 2602), crude petroleum (2709), sawn wood (4407), veneer sheets (4408) and plywood (4412). Top 2024 exports were crude petroleum at USD 5.23 billion, manganese ore at USD 1.7 billion, sawn wood at USD 366 million, veneer sheets at USD 244 million and refined petroleum at USD 174 million, and manganese, oil and wood together made up 83% of exports in 2023.

The feasible, evidence-backed diversification adjacencies lie within two chains Gabon has already partially entered: the wood chain (veneer to plywood to furniture and particle board) and the manganese chain (ore to silicomanganese and ferromanganese). The wood chain is the proven diversification path, flagged in the literature for its sustained RCA over 2001–2016 (IsDB). Higher-complexity diversification is constrained by the small labour force, power deficits and thin manufacturing base. Trade orientation compounds the complexity problem: destinations are overwhelmingly extra-African — China at USD 2.91 billion, Indonesia at USD 1.06 billion, Brazil at USD 730 million, Malaysia at USD 587 million and India at USD 525 million (OEC 2024) — with a very low intra-African export share and no established continental supply relationships to build on.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Gabon's strongest, most defensible continental supply position is processed wood — specifically okoumé veneer and tropical plywood (HS 4408/4412). It is the only Gabonese category that meets all five tests simultaneously. The input base is exceptional: okoumé occurs in more than 80% of Gabon's forests, Gabon has historically supplied up to 90% of the world's okoumé (Forest Trends 2024), and log production was ~4 million m³ in 2022 (US ITA). The processing position is real, installed, operating capacity rather than an announcement — ~84 wood-processing firms in the Nkok SEZ, 197 processing units nationally by 2020, and named 2022 outputs of 589,181 m³ of veneer and 125,831 m³ of plywood — with FAO/FAOSTAT (2024) ranking Gabon the world's 5th-largest veneer-sheet exporter and the only African country in the top tier, independently echoed by the Timber Trade Portal. Competitiveness is confirmed by sustained RCA > 1 in veneer and plywood (IsDB; OEC 2024), built on the 2010 log-export ban that forced domestic value addition. Deliverability rests on a coastal position with the Owendo port and rail/road links feeding Nkok 27 km from Libreville, and continental demand is genuine: Africa's plywood market was ~2.0 Mm³ / ~USD 1.4 billion in 2024 (IndexBox), with the continent importing panels — a real substitution prize. The underlying mechanism — log ban plus SEZ one-stop-shop plus the Tracer traceability agency plus the port link — is institutionally durable and already proven, in contrast to manganese, whose advantage rests on geological luck and a single vertically integrated foreign operator.

The honest limits are equally clear. Feedstock sustainability is unproven: okoumé regeneration on 25-year rotations has not been demonstrated at scale, and the first cutting cycles are only now closing. Asian-capital dominance of the Nkok processors means value and decisions may leak offshore. Power unreliability raises processing costs. And the specific "world's #2 tropical plywood" claim is self-published by the SEZ operator (Arise) and is not corroborated by ITTO, which ranks Indonesia and Vietnam ahead in plywood — so Gabon's independently verified strength is in veneer (FAO #5), not plywood per se. The two runners-up sit well behind: manganese ore (HS 2602) is a genuine continental anchor on endowment as the world's #2 producer but a weak supply position in framework terms because it leaves as raw ore, with the 2029 beneficiation ban potentially shifting it toward silicomanganese (7202) if power and smelting capacity follow; and Olam's RSPO-certified palm base and refinery give Gabon a credible regional edible-oil position into a deficit West and Central African market (HS 1511).

Current reality

Gabon is a small, upper-middle-income, extraction-dependent coastal economy of roughly 2.5 million people, with nominal GDP of USD 20.9 billion and GDP per capita of USD 8,230 (World Bank, 2024). Manufacturing value added was 19.62 per cent of GDP in 2024, but that figure includes oil refining and ore processing; genuine manufacturing is thin. Industry overall is about 50 per cent of GDP, among Africa's highest, but extraction-dominated. Oil is in structural decline, at 214,713 barrels per day in 2024 against a 1996 peak of 365,000 barrels per day. Manganese, oil and wood together made up 83 per cent of exports in 2023. Trade orientation is overwhelmingly extra-African — China, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and India are the leading destinations — and the intra-African export share is very low. The country has no established continental supply relationships to build on.

The binding constraints are physical. Installed power capacity was about 704 MW in 2023 against demand of roughly 1,039 MW, at a high production cost of CFAF 122.9 per kWh compared with CFAF 78.5 in Cameroon, with the utility SEEG placed under temporary administration between August 2024 and May 2025. Electricity access is 94.1 per cent, among Africa's highest, but shortages are chronic and outages directly raise processing costs — a principal reason manganese beneficiation has not scaled. Logistics rest on a single 648 km railway, the Transgabonais, which carries about 90 per cent of Gabon's manganese and moved some 10.9 million tonnes of freight in 2022; derailments and aged track remain reliability risks, and a modernisation programme running to 2028 aims to lift capacity from about 12 to 19–21 million tonnes a year. Food import dependence is roughly 60 per cent, with poultry approximately 95 per cent imported, signalling a weak agro-industrial base outside palm.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 15 candidate lines · will change

Gabon’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Gabon’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Gabon will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Gabon’s 15 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 1Strong Contender 4Emerging 6Aspirational 4
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined petroleum products

SOGARA refinery; expansion to 2030 · Maturity: Intermediate; below domestic demand · Competitiveness: Africa's refined-products import bill very large
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)
271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....
271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c
271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara
271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Gabon imported USD 226.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: SOGARA; Afreximbank · 2024

Crude petroleum

OPEC member; 214,713 bpd; declining · Maturity: Raw; declining · Competitiveness: Africa imports refined, not crude
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 11.08 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
270900Oils; petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 4.81 bnCote dIvoire USD 2.89 bnEgypt USD 1.74 bnSenegal USD 952.2 mTunisia USD 506 mGhana USD 124.9 mZambia USD 55.6 mZimbabwe USD 2.5 m

Source: OPEC; EIA · 2024

Crude palm oil & refined oil

Olam Palm Gabon, Africa's largest RSPO producer; 64,000 ha; refinery · Maturity: Intermediate→finished (refined branded oil) · Competitiveness: West/Central Africa edible-oil deficit
EMERGING
USD 6.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
151110Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151190Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 3.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.32 bnKenya USD 838.9 mEthiopia USD 491.4 mSouth Africa USD 462 mDjibouti USD 451.6 mUganda USD 311.4 mMozambique USD 250.1 mSomalia USD 201.9 m

Source: Olam · 2024

Gold (refined)

ROG refinery in Nkok (2023); artisanal + Bakoudou · Maturity: Intermediate, small scale · Competitiveness: Continental/global bullion demand
EMERGING
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: African Mining · 2025

Iron ore

Belinga high-grade hematite; first shipment Dec 2023 · Maturity: Raw, early-stage ~2 Mtpa · Competitiveness: Feeds steel; African steel nascent
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: Fortescue · 2023

Wood furniture

"Made in Gabon" furniture ambition; veneer/ply feedstock · Maturity: Nascent/finished · Competitiveness: Large continental furniture demand
EMERGING
USD 1.87 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
940310Furniture; metal, for office use
940320Furniture; metal, other than for office use
940330Furniture; wooden, for office use
940340Furniture; wooden, for kitchen use
940350Furniture; wooden, for bedroom use
940360Furniture; wooden, other than for office, kitchen or bedroom use
940370Furniture; plastic
940380Furniture of cane, osier, bamboo or similar materials (excluding of metal, wood and plastics)
940381Furniture of bamboo or rattan (excluding seats and medical, surgical, dental or veterinary...
940382Furniture; of bamboo
940383Furniture; of rattan
940389Furniture; of cane, osier, or similar materials (other than bamboo or rattan)
940390Furniture parts nes
940391Furniture; parts, of wood
940399Furniture; parts, of other than wood
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Gabon imported USD 11 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 254 mMorocco USD 222 mSouth Africa USD 149.5 mGhana USD 135.7 mEgypt USD 94.9 mAlgeria USD 83.4 mAngola USD 72.3 mGuinea USD 56.7 m

Source: Arise IIP · 2024

Sawn wood

Largest export-wood volume; >70% of wood output; top CEMAC processor · Maturity: Intermediate (first transformation) · Competitiveness: Construction demand continent-wide
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...
440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san
440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length
440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))
440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le
440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise
440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or
440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm
440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...
440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or
440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm
440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 9 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 1.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 728.6 mAlgeria USD 312.7 mMorocco USD 287.1 mSouth Africa USD 114.3 mLibya USD 46.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.3 mSenegal USD 36.2 m

Source: US ITA; OEC · 2024

Tropical plywood

Africa's leading tropical plywood producer; ~84 wood firms at Nkok SEZ · Maturity: Intermediate→finished · Competitiveness: African plywood market ~2.0 Mm³ / ~USD 1.4B, imports fell 9.3%
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 592.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
441210Plywood, veneered panels and similar laminated wood; of bamboo
441213Plywood consisting solely of sheets of wood <= 6 mm thick, with at least one outer ply of tropical...
441214Plywood consisting solely of sheets of wood <= 6 mm thick, with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous...
441219Plywood consisting solely of sheets of wood <= 6 mm thick (excluding plywood of subheading...
441222Veneered panels and similar laminated wood with at least one outer ply of tropical wood specified...
441223Veneered panels and similar laminated wood with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous wood...
441229Veneered panels and similar laminated wood with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous wood...
441231Plywood; consisting only of sheets of wood (not bamboo), each ply 6mm or thinner, with at least one outer ply of tropica
441232Plywood consisting solely of sheets of wood <= 6 mm thick, with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous...
441233Plywood; with sheets of wood only; not bamboo; each ply 6mm or less, with at least one outer ply of alder, ash, beech, b
441234Plywood; consisting only of sheets of wood (not bamboo), each ply 6mm or thinner, with at least one outer ply of non-con
441239Plywood; consisting only of sheets of wood (not bamboo), each ply 6mm or thinner, with both outer plies of coniferous wo
441241Plywood, veneered panels and similar laminated wood; laminated veneered lumber (LVL); with at least one outer ply of tropical wood
441242Laminated veneered lumber (LVL); with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous wood
441249Laminated veneered lumber (LVL); with both outer plies of coniferous wood
441251Blockboard, laminboard and battenboard; with at least one outer layer of tropical wood
441252Blockboard, laminboard and battenboard; with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous wood, (not containing particle board)
441259Blockboard, laminboard and battenboard; with both outer plies of coniferous wood
441291Plywood; n.e.c. in heading 4412, with at least one outer ply of tropical wood
441292Plywood; n.e.c. in heading 4412, with at least one outer ply of non-coniferous wood
441293Veneered panels and similar laminated wood with at least one layer of particle board (excluding...
441294Blockboard, laminboard and battenboard (not bamboo, and other than plywood consisting only of sheets of wood each ply 6mm or thinner)
441299Plywood; n.e.c. in heading 4412, with both outer plies of coniferous wood
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Gabon imported USD 8.6 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 249.1 mAlgeria USD 53 mMorocco USD 40.1 mSouth Africa USD 34.7 mSomalia USD 23.9 mMauritius USD 17.5 mGhana USD 15.5 mKenya USD 15.3 m

Source: Arise IIP (self-rep.); IndexBox · 2024

Silicomanganese / ferromanganese

CMM plant 65,000 t/yr SiMn nameplate; 2029 raw-export ban to force beneficiation · Maturity: Intermediate, sub-scale; metal line halted 2020 · Competitiveness: Steel deoxidiser; Africa largely imports alloys
EMERGING
USD 583.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
720211Ferro-alloys; ferro-manganese, containing by weight more than 2% of carbon
720219Ferro-alloys; ferro-manganese, containing by weight 2% or less of carbon
720221Ferro-alloys; ferro-silicon, containing by weight more than 55% of silicon
720229Ferro-alloys; ferro-silicon, containing by weight 55% or less of silicon
720230Ferro-alloys; ferro-silico-manganese
720241Ferro-alloys; ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon
720249Ferro-alloys; ferro-chromium, containing by weight 4% or less of carbon
720250Ferro-alloys; ferro-silico-chromium
720260Ferro-alloys; ferro-nickel
720270Ferro-alloys; ferro-molybdenum
720280Ferro-alloys; ferro-tungsten and ferro-silico-tungsten
720291Ferro-alloys; ferro-titanium and ferro-silico-titanium
720292Ferro-alloys; ferro-vanadium
720293Ferro-alloys; ferro-niobium
720299Ferro-alloys; n.e.c. in heading no. 7202
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 3.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 213.6 mSouth Africa USD 131.4 mAlgeria USD 62.8 mNigeria USD 25.3 mMorocco USD 25.1 mLibya USD 17.1 mEthiopia USD 12.5 mAngola USD 9.4 m

Source: Eramet/Comilog; L'Élémentarium · 2024

Tropical veneer sheets (okoumé)

World #5 veneer exporter, only African nation in FAO top list; okoumé in >80% of forests; Nkok cluster · Maturity: Intermediate (finished veneer); next → plywood/furniture · Competitiveness: Feeds African panel/furniture demand; African plywood market ~USD 1.4B
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 264.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440810Wood; coniferous, sheets for veneering (including those obtained by slicing laminated wood), for plywood or similar lami
440831Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, dark red meranti, light red meranti, meranti bakau, s
440839Wood, of tropical wood; as in Subheading note 2 to this Chapter, n.e.c. in heading no. 4408.31, sheets for veneer or ply
440890Wood; n.e.c. in heading no. 4408, sheets for veneer or plywood, other wood sawn lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Gabon imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 155.9 mMorocco USD 40.2 mEgypt USD 37.4 mSouth Africa USD 10.7 mTunisia USD 8.1 mEthiopia USD 4 mLibya USD 1 mMauritania USD 0.9 m

Source: FAO/FAOSTAT; OEC · 2024

Particle board / MDF

Nature Panels, first in Central Africa, since 2023; wood-waste feedstock · Maturity: Finished, single plant · Competitiveness: Construction/furniture panels
EMERGING
USD 219.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
441011Particle board of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substances
441012Oriented strand board (OSB) of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substances
441019Wafer board and similar board of wood n.e.c. in item no. 4410.1, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organi
441021Oriented strand board and waferboard, of wood, unworked or not further worked than sanded
441029Oriented strand board and waferboard, of wood (excluding unworked or not further worked than...
441031Particle board and similar board, of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other...
441032Particle board and similar board, of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other...
441033Particle board and similar board, of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other...
441039Particle board and similar board, of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other...
441090Particle board, oriented strand board (OSB) and similar board of ligneous materials other than wood, whether or not aggl
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Gabon imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 50.7 mMorocco USD 31.3 mLibya USD 22.6 mZimbabwe USD 16.8 mSouth Africa USD 9.9 mTunisia USD 9.8 mBotswana USD 8.1 mNamibia USD 7.9 m

Source: GSEZ · 2023

Niobium / ferro-niobium

Mabounié 2.3 Mt Nb2O5; not in production · Maturity: Endowment only · Competitiveness: Strategic/critical mineral; thin African demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 50.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
282510Hydrazine and hydroxylamine and their inorganic salts
282520Lithium oxide and hydroxide
282530Vanadium oxides and hydroxides
282540Nickel oxides and hydroxides
282550Copper oxides and hydroxides
282560Germanium oxides and zirconium dioxide
282570Molybdenum oxides and hydroxides
282580Antimony oxides
282590Inorganic bases, metal oxides, hydroxides and peroxides; n.e.c. in heading no. 2825
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 32.4 mEgypt USD 5.7 mGhana USD 2.9 mTunisia USD 2.1 mNigeria USD 1.3 mMorocco USD 1.1 mTanzania USD 0.7 mAlgeria USD 0.7 m

Source: Eramet Research · n.d.

Manganese oxide (MnO)

CMM MnO line ~46,000 t/yr capacity; ~7,000 t in 2022 · Maturity: Intermediate, low output · Competitiveness: Fertiliser/battery/welding inputs
EMERGING
USD 23.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
282010Manganese dioxide
282090Manganese oxides; excluding manganese dioxide
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Namibia USD 14.2 mNigeria USD 2.1 mMorocco USD 1.7 mSouth Africa USD 1.5 mEgypt USD 1.3 mKenya USD 0.7 mUganda USD 0.5 mMali USD 0.4 m

Source: L'Élémentarium · 2022

Manganese ore & concentrates

World #2 producer 4.6 Mt Mn-content; 44–50% grade · Maturity: Raw (minimal domestic processing) · Competitiveness: Steel inputs; African steel sector nascent
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR
USD 12 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260200Manganese ores and concentrates, including ferruginous manganese ores and concentrates with a manganese content of 20% o
Screening intensity · indicativeHigh
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 8.8 mSouth Africa USD 2.4 mAngola USD 0.4 mCote dIvoire USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS · 2025

Rare earth oxides

Mabounié 2 Mt REO; not in production · Maturity: Endowment only · Competitiveness: Limited African demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 5.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
284610Cerium compounds
284690Compounds, inorganic or organic (excluding cerium), of rare-earth metals, of yttrium, scandium or of mixtures of these m
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Gabon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 5.5 mEgypt USD 0.1 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: Eramet Research · n.d.

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Gabon is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Gabon buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Gabon is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 4.22 bn

Gabon’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

15

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierGabon imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Refined petroleum productsASPIRATIONALUSD 226.9 mUSD 110.54 bn
Wood furnitureEMERGINGUSD 11 mUSD 1.87 bn
Tropical plywoodSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 8.6 mUSD 592.6 m
Crude palm oil & refined oilEMERGINGUSD 3.4 mUSD 6.9 bn
Silicomanganese / ferromanganeseEMERGINGUSD 3.4 mUSD 583.1 m
Sawn woodSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 1.2 mUSD 1.78 bn
Tropical veneer sheets (okoumé)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.2 mUSD 264.2 m
Particle board / MDFEMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 219.2 m
Crude petroleumSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 11.08 bn
Gold (refined)EMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 2.99 bn
Iron oreASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 2.85 bn
Niobium / ferro-niobiumASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 50.3 m
Manganese oxide (MnO)EMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 23.9 m
Manganese ore & concentratesCONTINENTAL ANCHORUSD 0 mUSD 12 m

Left-hand column: what Gabon itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Gabon’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 15 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Gabon’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Gabon. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Gabon’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Gabon’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 21.62 bn
02NigeriaUSD 20.13 bn
03EgyptUSD 12.69 bn
04MoroccoUSD 8.31 bn
05DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn
06LibyaUSD 5.33 bn
07KenyaUSD 5.3 bn
08GhanaUSD 4.73 bn
09Cote dIvoireUSD 2.89 bn
10UgandaUSD 2.21 bn
11AlgeriaUSD 1.43 bn
12SenegalUSD 988.4 m
13TunisiaUSD 569.4 m
14EthiopiaUSD 507.9 m
15DjiboutiUSD 451.6 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Gabon. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Gabon would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Gabon to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable, competitively priced power to Nkok

The wood cluster needs firm, low-cost electricity, given installed capacity of 704 MW sits below demand of 1,039 MW and high tariffs directly raise processing costs. Manganese alloys would additionally need 300+ MW of firm, cheap power (hydro) to make the 2029 raw-export ban viable.

02

Completed rail and port capacity upgrades

The rail/port capacity programme (PRN2/PMS, to 2028) must lift the single Trans-Gabon corridor from ~12 Mt to 19–21 Mt/yr, since the same line serves both manganese and timber.

03

Demonstrated sustainable okoumé supply

Okoumé regeneration on 25-year rotations must be shown at commercial scale and backed by FSC-certified sustainable supply, as first cutting cycles are only now closing and regeneration is unproven at scale.

04

Movement up the wood chain to branded plywood and furniture

Gabon's independently verified strength is veneer (FAO #5); realising the allocation requires moving beyond veneer into branded plywood and furniture rather than stopping at the intermediate stage.

05

New manganese smelting capacity and anchor investment

The 2029 raw-export ban must be matched by smelting capacity beyond CMM's ~65,000 t/yr and by Eramet/NGM investment commitments; otherwise the ban risks cutting revenue without building capacity.

06

A functioning AfCFTA off-take mechanism

Because current trade is almost entirely extra-African (exports flow to Asia and Europe), intra-African off-take agreements are needed across wood, manganese alloys and palm oil, alongside completion of the planned Owendo palm-oil refinery and biodiesel capacity.

The binding constraints
·

Power deficit and cost Installed capacity of 704 MW (2023) sits below demand of 1,039 MW; production cost is high (CFAF 122.9/kWh versus CFAF 78.5 in Cameroon) and the SEEG utility was placed under temporary administration from August 2024 to May 2025. Outages directly raise processing costs and are a key reason manganese beneficiation has not scaled.

·

Single-corridor logistics The country relies on one railway — the 648 km single-track Trans-Gabon — for both manganese and timber, with recurrent derailments and aged track; the PRN2/PMS capacity expansion toward 19–21 Mt/yr is still in progress, leaving reliability exposed.

·

Capital and single-operator dependency Manganese beneficiation decisions sit with one foreign anchor (Eramet/Comilog), which owns the mine, rail and port, while wood processing is heavily Asian-capital-financed — concentrating value and risking leakage of value and decisions offshore.

·

Narrow skills base The labour force is small (~2.5 million population; ~20.2% unemployment) and the TVET base is narrow outside the Moanda School of Mines and Metallurgy (~150 trainees/year), limiting the human capital available for higher-complexity manufacturing.

·

Feedstock sustainability Okoumé regeneration is unproven at commercial rotation scale, with 25-year cutting cycles only now closing — a direct threat to the durability of the wood-processing trump card.

·

Governance and food-import fragility The 2023 coup and transitional government create policy-continuity risk amid overlapping forest, mining and oil concessions, while food-import dependence (~60% overall, poultry ~95% imported) signals a weak agro-industrial base outside palm. Continental demand is also a caveat: intra-African steel and panel markets remain modest in absolute terms, and the largest import-substitution prizes — refined fuels and steel — are categories where Gabon is sub-scale or absent.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Gabon’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power is the binding constraint on every processing ambition. Installed capacity of 704 MW in 2023 sat below demand of 1,039 MW, at CFAF 122.9 per kWh against CFAF 78.5 in Cameroon, with the SEEG utility under temporary administration from August 2024 to May 2025. The audit identifies outages as a key reason manganese beneficiation has not scaled.

05

A single rail corridor carries both manganese and timber. The 648 km Transgabonais moves about 90 per cent of Gabon's manganese and suffers recurrent derailments on aged track. The PRN2 and PMS capacity expansion, at roughly USD 580 million to 2028, is still in progress.

06

Beneficiation decisions sit with a single foreign anchor. Manganese mine, rail and port are vertically integrated under Eramet and Comilog, concentrating beneficiation choices in one operator. Wood processing at Nkok is heavily Asian-capital-financed, so value and decisions may leak offshore.

07

Feedstock sustainability is unproven at commercial scale. Okoumé regeneration on 25-year rotations has not been demonstrated at scale, and the first cutting cycles are only now closing. Demonstrated regeneration and FSC-certified sustainable supply are prerequisites for a durable veneer and plywood position.

08

The 2029 raw-manganese export ban could cut revenue without building capacity. The ban announced by the Council of Ministers on 30 May 2025, effective 1 January 2029, must be matched by 300 MW or more of firm, cheap hydropower, new smelting capacity beyond the CMM's 65,000 tonnes a year, and investment commitments from Eramet and NGM. Absent those, the audit warns the ban risks cutting revenue without building capacity.

09

There is no continental off-take relationship to build on. Gabon's trade is almost entirely extra-African, with China, Indonesia, Brazil, Malaysia and India as leading destinations and a very low intra-African export share. A functioning AfCFTA off-take mechanism is a stated precondition across all allocations.

10

Skills and governance both sit thin. The labour force is small, with around 20.2 per cent unemployment, and the TVET base is narrow outside the Moanda School of Mines and Metallurgy, which trains roughly 150 people a year. The 2023 coup and transitional government carry policy-continuity risk, alongside overlapping forest, mining and oil concessions.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Gabon's Draft 1 bundle rests on one proven institutional mechanism and one large but unconverted endowment. The proven mechanism is wood: the 2010 log-export ban, the Nkok SEZ one-stop-shop with dedicated power, the Tracer traceability agency and the Owendo port link together turned a geological base into installed veneer, plywood and sawnwood capacity with sustained revealed comparative advantage. The unconverted endowment is manganese, where world-ranking output at 44 to 50 per cent grade leaves the country almost entirely as raw ore, with the metal line halted since 2020 and alloy capacity sub-scale. What must be proven is threefold: that reliable, competitively priced power can reach Nkok and support smelting capacity well beyond the CMM's 65,000 tonnes a year; that okoumé regeneration and certified sustainable supply hold at commercial rotation scale while the rail and port upgrades complete; and that intra-African off-take can be established at all, since Gabon's trade today runs almost wholly to Asia and Europe. Until those are demonstrated, Gabon's continental position should be read as veneer and processed wood first, with manganese alloys, refined palm oil and refined fuels treated as capability under construction.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Gabon is shown 15 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Gabon to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2