Right of Supply — Eritrea

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to The Honourable Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Eritrea · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Honourable Minister,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Eritrea — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Eritrea is in this room

Eritrea's strongest endowment is the Colluli sulphate-of-potash deposit: approximately 1.1 billion tonnes of proven and probable reserves at about 10.5 per cent K2O, the shallowest evaporite deposit known with mineralisation from 16 metres, open-cut mineable across a roughly 200-year life and lying some 180 km from Massawa on a coastline of about 1,151 km. Its continental significance rests on a simple fact: Africa imports essentially all of its potash, and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 lists no African country as a potash producer. The honest constraint is equally simple. Colluli is pre-production, with Module I costed at about USD 298m and no published construction-completion date as of mid-2026; the country has no potash processing, no smelter or refinery, and available generation of roughly 35–37 MW against peak demand near 70 MW. Eritrea's allocation is therefore aspirational — demand certainty against which capability must be built, not capacity that exists today.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Eritrea, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Eritrea

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

14draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Eritrea’s draft bundle. 14 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Gold, Live animals/livestock, Copper concentrate/cathode. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 7 emerging · 5 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Eritrea is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 14 candidate lines proposed for Eritrea below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Eritrea. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Eritrea will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Eritrea will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

14 lines

Eritrea’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Eritrea at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Eritrea’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Eritrea’s own capability audit.

Refined zinc metal

Bisha output is flotation concentrate and there is no domestic smelter. The audit is explicit that absent a regional or domestic smelter plus reliable power to run it, Eritrea remains a raw concentrate supplier.

Raw base · industrial screen

Refined copper cathode

Copper leaves the country as concentrate with no refinery in existence, and copper content had fallen to about 16,008 tonnes in 2019 from 61,600 tonnes in 2015 as the supergene zone depleted. The refining step does not exist and cannot be claimed.

Raw base · industrial screen

Gold as an intra-African supplied product

Gold is produced as doré or semi-refined material and exported to Asia. The audit rates it strong as an export but only emerging as a product, with low continental demand as an intra-African product line.

Capability inversion

Cement and clinker at continental scale

African import demand for clinker is very high, but capacity is domestic-scale only: Gedem at 350,000 tonnes a year, with the 45,000-tonne Massawa works not operating at end-2019. The audit tiers cement as aspirational and requires recommissioning plus clinker capacity scaled beyond domestic need.

Scale-matching

Processed fish and seafood

Maximum sustainable yield is estimated near 80,000 tonnes a year but current catch is below 10,000 tonnes, and processing is minimal — gutting, occasional filleting and salting, with no significant cold chain. The historic pelagic fishmeal industry of the 1950s and 1960s collapsed.

Raw base · industrial screen

Gypsum and sesame lines

Both are tiered GREY in the audit's own allocation feed — gypsum at roughly 18,000 tonnes a year, raw, with low to moderate demand, and sesame as raw lowland seed. Neither carries the evidence base to be claimed as a supply position.

Raw base · industrial screen

08 · Endowment

What Eritrea actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Eritrea. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Eritrea's endowment is mineral, coastal and — in one case — geologically exceptional. The operating Bisha mine, held by Zijin Mining (55 per cent) and ENAMCO (45 per cent), produced zinc content of about 121,260 tonnes and copper content of about 16,008 tonnes in 2019, alongside silver of about 44,836 kg, with proven and probable reserves cited at roughly 3.09 Mt of zinc at 3.75 per cent and about 800,000 tonnes of copper at 0.97 per cent. Remaining mine life is put at around six years with the Hambok pit extension. Gold is mined at Bisha and at Zara/Koka (SFECO 60 per cent, ENAMCO 40 per cent), with national output of roughly 3,700 kg a year reported for 2018–2019 and national reserves estimated at about 2 million ounces. The Asmara polymetallic project, under development rather than in operation, carries roughly 381,000 tonnes of copper, 850,000 tonnes of zinc, 436,000 ounces of gold and 11 Moz of silver over seventeen years. Iron ore reserves are noted but undeveloped.

The single most distinctive asset is the Colluli sulphate-of-potash deposit, held by SRBG (China, 50 per cent) and ENAMCO (50 per cent) following Danakali's exit in 2023. Proven and probable reserves stand at approximately 1.1 billion tonnes at about 10.5 per cent K2O, some 203–216 Mt of contained SOP, within a total resource of about 1.29 Bt at 11 per cent K2O. It is the shallowest evaporite deposit known, with mineralisation from 16 metres, amenable to low-cost open-cut mining and carrying a mine life of roughly 200 years. It sits about 180 km from Massawa and some 75 km from the Red Sea coast. It is pre-production; no potash processing exists.

Beyond minerals, the endowment is geographic. A Red Sea coastline of some 1,151 km on the Bab-el-Mandeb lane carries two deep-water ports — Massawa (quay about 1,007 m, six berths) and Assab (seven deep-sea berths, about 1,025 m) — with combined throughput historically around 2.5 Mt. Fisheries are heavily under-exploited: maximum sustainable yield is estimated at about 80,000 tonnes a year against a current catch below 10,000 tonnes, roughly 13 per cent of potential. Sea salt output runs at about 330,000 tonnes, with limestone at some 460,000 tonnes crushed and gypsum at about 18,000 tonnes. On complexity, Eritrea ranks among the least diversified economies and is frequently absent from published ECI tables owing to data gaps, so no firm ECI value or rank can responsibly be cited. Revealed advantage exists only in unprocessed ores: zinc ore at the world's highest export-basket share of 48.4 per cent and copper ore at the world's highest share of 45 per cent, both OEC 2024.

The endowment in depth

Eritrea's endowment is mining-led and, at present, almost entirely unprocessed. The operating Bisha mine (Zijin Mining 55% / ENAMCO 45%) is the only real processing footprint, yielding zinc concentrate (Zn content ~121,260 t in 2019, up from zero in 2015 after the 2016 zinc circuit; ~117,000 t in 2023), copper concentrate (Cu content ~16,008 t in 2019, down from 61,600 t in 2015 as the supergene zone depleted), silver (~44,836 kg, 2019) and gold. Bisha carries P&P reserves cited at ~800,000 t Cu at 0.97% and ~3.09 Mt Zn at 3.75%, but remaining mine life is roughly six years with the Hambok pit extension. Gold comes from Bisha plus Zara/Koka (SFECO 60% / ENAMCO 40%, ~3,200 kg/yr capacity, ~104,000 oz/yr design over a ~7-year life, in commercial production since 2016); USGS records national gold mine output of ~3,700 kg/yr in 2018–2019 against estimated national reserves of ~2 million ounces. The undeveloped Colluli deposit holds ~1.1 billion tonnes of P&P reserves at ~10.5% K2O (~203–216 Mt contained SOP; total resource ~1.29 Bt at 11% K2O), the shallowest evaporite globally with mineralisation from 16 m — pre-production, the JV now SRBG (China, 50%) / ENAMCO (50%) after Danakali's 2023 exit. The Asmara polymetallic project (Sichuan Road & Bridge) adds ~381,000 t Cu, 850,000 t Zn, 436,000 oz Au and 11 Moz Ag over 17 years but is under development, not operating. Iron ore is noted but undeveloped, and industrial minerals include limestone (~460,000 t crushed, 2019), gypsum (~18,000 t), sea salt (~330,000 t), granite/marble, clay and pumice. Critically, no domestic smelter or refinery exists: Bisha mills, crushes and flotation-concentrates on site, gold is doré/semi-refined, and every metal leaves as ore or concentrate.

Energy is the binding gate on any move into beneficiation. Available generation capacity is only ~35–37 MW against peak demand of ~70 MW (estimates up to 200 MW), producing chronic load-shedding; generation was ~374 GWh (2021) and per-capita consumption ~127 kWh (2023) against a world average of ~3,781 kWh. There are no proven oil or gas reserves, no production and no refining, though offshore Red Sea potential is unexploited. Renewable potential is genuine but largely uninstalled: Asmara records ~3,002 sunshine hours/yr and ~1.8 MWh/kWp PV yield, with Red Sea wind and Afar/Danakil geothermal potential. The pipeline includes an AfDB-funded 30 MW Dekemhare solar PV plant plus a 15 MW/30 MWh battery (USD 49.92m grant, approved 2023) targeting grid capacity up to 185 MW / 365 GWh/yr, a 750 kW Assab wind pilot (2010), a 2.25 MW Areza/Maidma solar mini-grid and 34 MW of Gash Barka solar mini-grids under Desert to Power. The audit's verdict is explicit: the current grid cannot support smelting or refining, and the renewable potential remains largely on paper.

Agriculture is subsistence-dominated and drought-exposed: sorghum leads by area, alongside pearl millet, barley, sesame and pulses, yet more than 70% of the population works in traditional agriculture and ~90% of cereal consumption is imported. Livestock — cattle, goats, sheep and camels — supports a traditional trade in live animals and hides/leather. The most conspicuous under-exploitation is fisheries: a ~1,100+ km coastline carries an estimated maximum sustainable yield of ~80,000 t/yr, but current catch is under 10,000 t/yr (~13% of potential); a 1950s–60s pelagic sardine/anchovy fishery once exceeded 25,000–30,000 t/yr processed into fishmeal for export before collapsing, and fisheries now contribute ~3% of GDP with only minimal gutting, filleting or salting and no cold-chain. The manufacturing base is negligible: MVA is a very small share of GDP, Eritrea is largely absent or unranked in UNIDO CIP, and output is concentrated in a handful of state/PFDJ-linked enterprises — Gedem Cement Works (350,000 t/yr), the idle Eritrea Cement Works Massawa (45,000 t/yr, not operating end-2019), Assab Salt Works (150,000 t/yr), Salina Salt Works Massawa (80,000 t/yr), Margran granite/marble and Badme lime plants. Massawa free-zone and port-industrial ambitions have been designated but are not operational.

Human capital is young and cheap but distorted by indefinite National Service: conscription runs formally from ages 18–40 but is open-ended in practice (some serving over 20 years) at ~450–500 nakfa/month (~USD 30), and the UN Commission of Inquiry (A/HRC/32/47, 8 June 2016) found crimes including enslavement, its chief investigator citing "300,000 to 400,000 people who have been enslaved" and conscripts used as forced labour in state/PFDJ mining and development projects. A large diaspora (~11% of the population abroad, ~679,346 as of 2025) holds skills but is largely disengaged domestically, and the TVET/tertiary base is thin and militarised, with the final school year run at Sawa camp. Infrastructure centres on two deep-water Red Sea ports — Massawa (quay ~1,007 m, 6 berths, deepest ~12 m, ~150,000 t holding) and Assab (7 berths, ~1,025 m, deepest ~10.97 m, ~385,930 t holding) — with combined throughput historically ~2.5 Mt and a World Bank 2025 project targeting a rise at Assab from ~2.8 to ~5 Mt/yr. The ~1,151 km coastline sits on the Bab-el-Mandeb lane, the only safe Red Sea access for the wider Horn outside Djibouti; Assab once handled ~70% of Ethiopian trade before the 1998–2018 border closure, and the 2018 peace reopened potential that then faltered. Colluli sits ~180 km by road from Massawa, designed around an 85 km desalination pipeline and on-site heavy-fuel-oil power, while logistics outside the mega-projects remain weak.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Eritrea ranks among the least complex and least diversified economies and is frequently absent from published ECI tables owing to severe data gaps, so no firm ECI value or rank can responsibly be cited. Revealed comparative advantage, judged by export-basket share, exists only in unprocessed mineral ores: zinc ore (the world's highest export-basket share at 48.4%, OEC 2024), copper ore (the world's highest at 45%, ahead of Chile at 30.7% and Peru at 27.4%, 2024) and precious-metal ore/gold. The export basket is extremely narrow — the top three products exceed 95% of exports — with no demonstrated complexity or sophisticated diversification base.

The Atlas product-space logic offers little near-term diversification because the export base loads almost entirely on a few ubiquitous raw commodities sold to a handful of buyers. Feasible adjacencies are essentially confined to the resource chain itself — refined metals, fertiliser products, salt and industrial minerals, and processed fish — rather than complex manufactures, and data coverage for Eritrea should be treated as poor and indicative only.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Eritrea's single most defensible long-horizon continental supply position is sulphate-of-potash fertiliser from Colluli (HS 3104), though it must be tiered honestly as aspirational-to-emerging because it remains pre-production. The demand case is unusually clean: Africa imports essentially all of its potash, sub-Saharan Africa consumed ~0.8 Mt K2O in 2020, and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (2026) lists no African country as a potash producer, so the substitution prize approaches the entire continental potash bill — potash being the one macronutrient where Africa is roughly 100% import-dependent, with ~90% of SSA fertiliser imported. The endowment quality is exceptional: ~1.1 billion tonnes of P&P reserves at ~10.5% K2O, the shallowest evaporite deposit known (mineralisation from 16 m), amenable to low-cost open-cut mining with a ~200-year life and the ability to make premium chloride-free SOP plus SOP-M, MOP and salt by-products; the DFS records a post-tax NPV of ~USD 860m and IRR of ~29%. Deliverability is aided by coastal proximity — ~180 km from Massawa and ~75 km from the Red Sea coast — which rival Danakil projects shipping via Djibouti (600+ km) lack.

The honest limits are severe. Colluli is undeveloped and capital-constrained (Module I ~USD 298m; full programme USD 500m+) and now wholly dependent on a single Chinese state contractor, SRBG, following Danakali's USD 166m exit in 2023. The site has no power, water or rail at scale, requiring a desalination pipeline and captive heavy-fuel-oil power; governance, sanctions history and forced-labour reputational risk deter Western finance and offtake; and the original EuroChem offtake was struck under Danakali, whose departure leaves that arrangement uncertain. No published construction-completion date exists as of mid-2026, which is why the position is framed by demand certainty rather than any near-term capacity claim. The operating runner-up is Bisha zinc — real output and the world's highest zinc-ore export share, but raw concentrate with no smelter and a maturing mine — followed by cement and clinker, where large African import demand meets only domestic-scale, partly idle capacity.

Current reality

Eritrea is a small, isolated, mining-led command economy. GDP was about USD 2.6–2.7 billion in 2023 against a population of roughly 3.5–3.7 million. Real GDP grew about 2.8 per cent in 2023 and 2.9 per cent in 2024, driven by industry and notably mining, which contributes over 90 per cent of exports and around 20 per cent of GDP. Public debt is extreme at approximately 164 per cent of GDP. The export basket is exceptionally narrow — the top three products account for more than 95 per cent of exports, and roughly 94.8 per cent of 2017–24 exports went to just three partners, with China dominant at some 52–79 per cent, South Korea taking zinc and the UAE also featuring. The share going to other African countries is negligible; orientation is overwhelmingly extra-African.

The country exports raw ore and concentrate and processes almost nothing into finished products. Bisha mills, crushes and flotation-concentrates on site, gold is doré or semi-refined, and there is no domestic smelter or refinery. Manufacturing is a very small share of GDP, concentrated in a handful of state and PFDJ-linked enterprises: Gedem Cement Works at 350,000 tonnes a year, Eritrea Cement Works Massawa at 45,000 tonnes a year and not operating at end-2019, Assab Salt Works at 150,000 tonnes a year and Salina Salt Works Massawa at 80,000 tonnes. Energy is the binding gate on any beneficiation: available generation capacity is roughly 35–37 MW against peak demand of about 70 MW, with chronic load-shedding, generation of some 374 GWh in 2021 and consumption of about 127 kWh per capita against a world average near 3,781 kWh. Massawa free-zone ambitions remain a designated framework rather than an operational one. Data coverage should be treated as poor and indicative only.

Read under the South Sudan Principle

Eritrea holds an aspirational allocation. Nothing on these pages is a near-term capacity claim. The bundle is the demand certainty against which capability is built, and it is deliberately held open while the state rebuilds.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 14 candidate lines · will change

Eritrea’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Eritrea’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Eritrea will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Eritrea’s 14 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Emerging 7Aspirational 5Grey 2

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Fish & seafood

~80,000 t MSY; <10,000 t caught; 1,100+ km coast · Maturity: Largely raw, minimal processing · Competitiveness: Moderate-high

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.03 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

030310Frozen Pacific salmon "Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus . . .

030311Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon, sockeye salmon (red salmon) (Oncorhynchus nerka), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, an

030312Fish; frozen, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha/keta/tschawytscha/ kisutch/masou/rhodurus) other than sockeye salmo

030313Fish; frozen, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and e

030314Fish; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae

030319Fish; frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subh

030321Frozen trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita,...

030322Frozen Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho)

030323Fish; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03

030324Fish; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304

030325Fish; frozen, carp (as specified by the WCO), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings

030326Fish; frozen, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 t

030329Fish; frozen, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030331Fish; frozen, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030332Fish; frozen, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030333Fish; frozen, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030334Fish; frozen, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030339Fish; frozen, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030341Fish; frozen, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030342Fish; frozen, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030343Fish; frozen, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030344Fish; frozen, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030345Fish; frozen, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030346Fish; frozen, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030349Fish; frozen, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030350Frozen herrings "Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii"

030351Fish; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030352Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)

030353Fish; frozen, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030354Fish; frozen, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030355Fish; frozen, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030356Fish; frozen, cobia (Rachycentron canadum), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030357Fish; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030359Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030360Frozen cod "Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac and Gadus macrocephalus"

030361Frozen swordfish (Xiphias gladius)

030363Fish; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030364Fish; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030365Fish; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030366Fish; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030367Fish; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030368Fish; frozen, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030369Fish; frozen, of Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, Muraenolepididae, other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, Alaska pollack, blue whitings, not fillets, meat of 0304, and edible offal of 0303.9

030371Frozen sardines Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.", sardinella "Sardinella spp." and brisling...

030372Frozen haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)

030373Frozen coalfish (Pollachius virens)

030374Frozen mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)

030375Frozen dogfish and other sharks

030376Frozen eels (Anguilla spp.)

030377Frozen sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax, Dicentrarchus punctatus)

030378Frozen hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)

030379Frozen freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied...

030380Frozen fish livers and roes

030381Fish; frozen, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030382Fish; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030383Fish; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, livers, roes, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030384Fish; frozen, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030389Fish; frozen, n.e.c. in heading 0303, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99

030390Frozen fish livers and roes

030391Fish; frozen, livers, roes and milt

030392Fish; frozen, shark fins

030399Fish; frozen, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Cote dIvoire USD 835.8 mNigeria USD 565.2 mEgypt USD 355 mCameroon USD 301 mGhana USD 293.3 mMauritius USD 225.3 mZambia USD 163.8 mSouth Africa USD 139.4 m

Source: FAO; academic MSY · 2012/2020

Gold

Bisha+Zara/Koka ~3,700 kg/yr; ~2 Moz reserves · Maturity: Doré/semi-refined · Competitiveness: Low as intra-African product

EMERGING

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Cement & clinker

Limestone/gypsum; Gedem 350kt plant · Maturity: Domestic-scale, partly idle · Competitiveness: Very high — Africa imports clinker

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)

252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured

252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured

252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers

252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Source: USGS MYB; Africa cement reports · 2019/2025

Live animals/livestock

Pastoral herds · Maturity: Live export · Competitiveness: Regional

EMERGING

USD 849.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

010210Pure-bred breeding bovines

010221Cattle; live, pure-bred breeding animals

010229Cattle; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals

010231Buffalo; live, pure-bred breeding animals

010239Buffalo; live, other than pure-bred breeding animals

010290Bovine animals; live, other than cattle and buffalo

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 307.9 mMorocco USD 188.2 mAlgeria USD 103.9 mSouth Africa USD 102.6 mLibya USD 46.7 mMauritius USD 19.9 mCote dIvoire USD 12.3 mTunisia USD 12.1 m

Source: FAO; OEC · 2022

Sulphate of potash (SOP) fertiliser

Colluli ~1.1Bt P&P @10.5% K2O, shallowest evaporite, coastal · Maturity: Raw deposit, pre-production · Competitiveness: Very high — Africa ~100% potash-import-dependent (SSA ~0.8 Mt K2O)

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 782.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

310410Carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts (excluding those in pellet or similar...

310420Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, potassium chloride

310430Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, potassium sulphate

310490Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3104

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Procuring agency (indicative): Agricultural parastatals · Input Subsidy Programs · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 182.4 mMorocco USD 112.8 mEgypt USD 78.3 mCote dIvoire USD 58 mZimbabwe USD 57.3 mNigeria USD 38.1 mKenya USD 35.9 mMali USD 34.2 m

Source: Mining Tech DFS; IFA; USGS MCS · 2015/2022/2026

Other potash (SOP-M/MOP)

Colluli salt-suite by-products · Maturity: Pre-production · Competitiveness: High

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 782.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

310410Carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts (excluding those in pellet or similar...

310420Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, potassium chloride

310430Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, potassium sulphate

310490Fertilizers, mineral or chemical; potassic, n.e.c. in heading no. 3104

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 182.4 mMorocco USD 112.8 mEgypt USD 78.3 mCote dIvoire USD 58 mZimbabwe USD 57.3 mNigeria USD 38.1 mKenya USD 35.9 mMali USD 34.2 m

Source: Mining.com; DFS · 2015/2023

Gypsum

~18,000 t/yr · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Low-moderate

GREY

USD 386.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

252010Gypsum; anhydrite

252020Plasters; (consisting of calcined gypsum or calcium sulphate), whether or not coloured, with or without small quantities

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 176.6 mGhana USD 32.7 mCote dIvoire USD 18.3 mUganda USD 16.7 mCameroon USD 15.2 mBurkina Faso USD 14.6 mSenegal USD 12.1 mZambia USD 9.3 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Copper concentrate/cathode

Bisha Cu ~16,008 t; highest world copper-ore export share (45%) · Maturity: Concentrate, no refinery · Competitiveness: High

EMERGING

USD 353.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260300Copper ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Namibia USD 250.5 mZambia USD 103 mSouth Africa USD 0.3 mTanzania USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MYB; OEC · 2019/2024

Sesame/oilseeds

Lowland sesame · Maturity: Raw seed · Competitiveness: Moderate

GREY

USD 337.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

120710Oil seeds; palm nuts and kernels, whether or not broken

120720Cotton seeds, whether or not broken

120721Oil seeds; cotton seeds, seed, whether or not broken

120729Oil seeds; cotton seeds, other than seed, whether or not broken

120730Oil seeds; castor oil seeds, whether or not broken

120740Oil seeds; sesamum seeds, whether or not broken

120750Oil seeds; mustard seeds, whether or not broken

120760Oil seeds; safflower (Carthamus tinctorius) seeds, whether or not broken

120770Oil seeds; melon seeds, whether or not broken

120791Oil seeds; poppy seeds, whether or not broken

120799Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; n.e.c. in heading no. 1207, whether or not broken

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 115.5 mGhana USD 46 mMorocco USD 42.7 mTunisia USD 27 mAlgeria USD 25.5 mKenya USD 19.1 mSouth Africa USD 12.6 mMozambique USD 8 m

Source: FAOSTAT · 2020

Sea/industrial salt

~330,000 t/yr; Assab/Salina works; coastline · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Hides, skins & leather

Livestock base · Maturity: Raw hides, minimal tanning · Competitiveness: Moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 112.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

410110Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing <= 8 kg when dried, <= 10 kg when dry-salted and . . .

410120Raw hides and skins; whole, unsplit, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin not exceeding 8kg when simply dri

410121Whole raw bovine hides and skins, weighing > 14 kg, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired . . .

410122Raw butts and bends of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split

410129Raw hides and skins of bovine animals, fresh or wet-salted, whether or not dehaired or split . . .

410150Hides and skins; raw, whole, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight per skin exceeding 16 kg

410190Hides and skins; other than whole, but including butts, bends and bellies, of bovine (including. buffalo) and equine ani

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 93.1 mEgypt USD 7.4 mGhana USD 5.1 mUganda USD 3.5 mKenya USD 1.4 mTunisia USD 1.2 mBenin USD 0.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 m

Source: OEC; FAO · 2022

Dimension stone (granite/marble)

Margran plc; granite ~49,000 t block · Maturity: Blocks/slabs · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 58.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

251611Granite; crude or roughly trimmed

251612Granite; merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shape

251620Sandstone;. whether or not roughly trimmed, cut, by sawing etc, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square)

251621Sandstone, crude or roughly trimmed (excluding already with the characteristics of setts, curbstones...

251622Sandstone, merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a square or rectangular...

251690Monumental or building stone; n.e.c. in heading no. 2516, whether or not roughly trimmed or merely cut, by sawing or oth

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 34.3 mTunisia USD 6.5 mEgypt USD 6.2 mSouth Africa USD 4.5 mGambia USD 2.6 mNamibia USD 1.6 mKenya USD 0.5 mBotswana USD 0.3 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Silver

Bisha by-product ~44,836 kg · Maturity: Semi-refined by-product · Competitiveness: Low

EMERGING

USD 27.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710610Metals; silver powder

710691Metals; silver, unwrought, (but not powder)

710692Metals; silver, semi-manufactured

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 10.5 mSouth Africa USD 5.6 mAlgeria USD 5.5 mTunisia USD 2.4 mMauritius USD 1.6 mMorocco USD 1.2 mGuinea USD 0.1 mLibya USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MYB · 2019

Zinc concentrate/metal

Bisha Zn ~121,260 t; highest world zinc-ore export share (48.4%) · Maturity: Concentrate, no smelter · Competitiveness: Moderate

EMERGING

USD 0.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260800Zinc ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Eritrea imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 0.3 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MYB; OEC · 2019/2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Eritrea is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Eritrea buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Eritrea is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 0.44 bn

Eritrea’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Eritrea imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Cement & clinker	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 2 m	USD 2.9 bn
Fish & seafood	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 4.03 bn
Gold	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 2.99 bn
Live animals/livestock	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 849.4 m
Sulphate of potash (SOP) fertiliser	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 782.2 m
Other potash (SOP-M/MOP)	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 782.2 m
Gypsum	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 386.9 m
Copper concentrate/cathode	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 353.9 m
Sesame/oilseeds	GREY	USD 0 m	USD 337.6 m
Sea/industrial salt	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 303.1 m
Hides, skins & leather	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 0 m	USD 112.6 m
Dimension stone (granite/marble)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 58.9 m
Silver	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 27.3 m
Zinc concentrate/metal	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 0.5 m

Left-hand column: what Eritrea itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Eritrea’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 14 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Eritrea’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Eritrea. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Eritrea’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Eritrea’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01UgandaUSD 2.08 bn

02South AfricaUSD 1.32 bn

03Cote dIvoireUSD 1.28 bn

04EgyptUSD 1.1 bn

05NigeriaUSD 949.3 m

06GhanaUSD 708.1 m

07MoroccoUSD 517.3 m

08CameroonUSD 461.1 m

09MaliUSD 371.1 m

10ZambiaUSD 289.7 m

11MauritiusUSD 282.9 m

12LibyaUSD 272.1 m

13NamibiaUSD 252.1 m

14Burkina FasoUSD 219.7 m

15AlgeriaUSD 212.6 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Eritrea. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Eritrea would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Eritrea to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Colluli SOP financed and Module I built

Construction financing closed and Module I built (~USD 298m), with captive HFO or solar power and the Anfile Bay desalination pipeline completed, a Massawa or dedicated Colluli port-handling solution for bulk fertiliser, secured offtake, and a credible route to selling into African markets rather than only export via traders, with Phase II reaching ~944 kt/yr.

A smelter or refinery and the power to run it

For zinc and copper, a regional or domestic smelter or refinery plus reliable power to run it — neither exists today; absent that, Eritrea stays a raw-concentrate supplier.

Recommissioned, scaled cement capacity

The Massawa cement plant recommissioned and clinker capacity added beyond domestic need, matched by the power and export logistics to run it.

Fisheries processing and cold-chain

Cold-chain, processing plants, vessels and coastal power to convert an ~80,000 t MSY into supplyable processed product.

Labour-market and forced-labour reform

National Service and forced-labour reform to unlock a real labour market and ethical offtake and finance, alongside a transparent investment framework.

Reliable power and regional stability

Reliable grid power, durable Ethiopia and Red Sea regional stability, and resolution of the single-buyer dependency that concentrates exports on China and Korea.

The binding constraints

Power Only ~35–37 MW is available against ~70 MW peak demand, and chronic load-shedding makes beneficiation, smelting and refining infeasible without dedicated captive generation.

Logistics Two ports carry modest throughput and modernise slowly, inland roads and rail outside the mega-projects are weak, and the Ethiopia transit relationship is politically fragile.

Capital and finance Net FDI was negative in 2024, Eritrea sits in the OECD's highest country-risk band (2026) with extreme public debt (~164%+ of GDP), Western banks apply enhanced due diligence, and capital availability is concentrated in Chinese state lenders.

Skills and labour The indefinite National Service and forced-labour regime — the UN COI's finding of enslavement covering 300,000–400,000 people — suppresses a functioning labour market, deters ethical offtakers, and creates AfCFTA and ESG reputational exposure for any buyer.

Governance An opaque, state and PFDJ-dominated economy with no transparent industrial policy and ENAMCO embedded in every project.

Single-buyer and feedstock dependency Exports are concentrated on China and Korea, Colluli now relies on one Chinese contractor and Bisha's ore types are maturing, while severe data scarcity further impedes planning and verification.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Eritrea’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

An aspirational allocation is not a capability claim. Eritrea holds lines against which capability must still be built. Nothing here should be read as present capacity, and the instrument’s value to Eritrea lies in the demand certainty, not in near-term supply.

Power is the binding gate on everything downstream. Available generation of roughly 35–37 MW against peak demand of about 70 MW, with chronic load-shedding, makes beneficiation, smelting and refining infeasible without dedicated captive generation. The AfDB-funded 30 MW Dekemhare solar plant with battery storage is approved, not built.

Colluli has no closed construction financing. Module I is costed at about USD 298m within a full programme above USD 500m, with no published construction-completion date as of mid-2026. Captive power, the Anfile Bay desalination pipeline, a bulk fertiliser port-handling solution and secured offtake all remain to be delivered.

Capital access is narrow and concentrated. Net FDI was negative in 2024, Eritrea sits in the OECD's highest country-risk band as of 2026, public debt is around 164 per cent of GDP, and Western banks apply enhanced due diligence. Available capital is concentrated in Chinese state lenders.

The labour regime is a direct barrier to ethical offtake. The UN Commission of Inquiry report A/HRC/32/47 found crimes including enslavement, with its chief investigator citing 300,000 to 400,000 people enslaved, and conscripts used in state and PFDJ enterprises including mining projects. This suppresses a functioning labour market and creates AfCFTA and ESG exposure for any buyer.

Single-buyer and single-contractor dependency runs through the whole structure. Exports are concentrated on China and Korea, Colluli now depends on one Chinese state contractor after Danakali's exit, and Bisha ore types are maturing with roughly six years of mine life remaining.

Logistics are modest and politically exposed. Two ports carry historically about 2.5 Mt of combined throughput with slow modernisation, inland roads and rail are weak outside the mega-projects, and the Ethiopia transit relationship remains fragile after the 1998–2018 border closure and renewed tension over Red Sea access in 2023–25.

Governance and data scarcity impede verification. The economy is opaque and state and PFDJ-dominated, ENAMCO is embedded in every project at 40–50 per cent, and there is no published beneficiation or industrial policy of substance. Severe data scarcity, including missing recent GDP and CPI series, impedes planning and verification.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Eritrea's Draft 1 bundle rests on three things the audit treats as durable: geology, coastline and an anchor investor. Colluli's shallow evaporite is durable in the ground but fragile in execution, hinging on one state contractor; Bisha's VMS orebody and Zijin's operating capability created the only real processing footprint, but with roughly six years of mine life remaining that footprint is maturing; and the Red Sea position is a permanent structural asset underpinning salt, fisheries and any future port-industrial activity. What must be proven is the entire conversion layer. Construction financing must close and Module I must be built with captive power, the desalination pipeline and a bulk fertiliser port-handling solution; smelting or refining capacity and the grid power to run it must exist before zinc or copper can be anything other than concentrate; the Massawa cement works must be recommissioned and clinker capacity scaled beyond domestic need; cold chain, vessels and coastal power must exist before an 80,000-tonne maximum sustainable yield becomes supplyable product. Cross-cutting all of it are National Service reform to permit a real labour market and ethical offtake, a transparent investment framework, durable regional stability, reliable grid power and resolution of single-buyer dependency. On present evidence Eritrea holds endowment of continental significance and delivery capability that has yet to be constructed.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Eritrea is shown 14 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Eritrea to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Eritrea stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Eritrea?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Eritrea’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Eritrea?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.