Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
Cabo VerdeBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Cabo Verde — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
11
Draft 1 candidate lines for Cabo Verde
The Minister’s brief · for Francisco Carvalho · Cabo Verde
Prime Minister Carvalho, Cabo Verde holds what the continent's tables still import: a proven cannery. Your tuna-rich EEZ carries stable capacity of twenty to thirty thousand tonnes yet is fished at barely five thousand, and Frescomar and Atunlo already stand at the finished end of the chain — canned tuna and mackerel that are more than eighty per cent of national exports, roughly sixty-four per cent of merchandise in 2024, EU-approved, your highest-advantage product, shelf-stable and built for Porto Grande's cold chain. The continent still imports the very fish it could supply: Western Africa alone lifted its aquatic imports from USD 436 million to 2.2 billion between 2000 and 2021 — that outflow is your claim. The Right of Supply gives Cabo Verde a twenty-five-year first right to meet it, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional; your correction is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Cabo Verde
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Francisco Carvalho, Prime Minister

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Cabo Verde · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Prime Minister Carvalho,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Cabo Verde — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Cabo Verde is in this room

Cabo Verde's strongest endowment is prepared and preserved fish. A tuna-rich maritime economic zone with stable capacity of 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes is presently fished at only about 5,000 tonnes, and the country already operates at the finished end of the chain through Frescomar's canning of tuna and mackerel and Atunlo's frozen-loin capacity, which together account for more than 80 per cent of national exports and roughly 64 per cent of merchandise exports in 2024, with EU sanitary approval and a demonstrated export record. The honest constraint is that of the roughly 19,000 tonnes processed and exported in 2024, only about 20 per cent used local raw materials, the remainder coming from foreign vessels; the position is therefore a processing and re-export platform whose resilience depends on securing domestic feedstock, diversifying ownership and offtake beyond a single group, and lowering the cost of energy across nine unconnected island grids.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Cabo Verde, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Cabo Verde

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
11draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Cabo Verde’s draft bundle. 11 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Prepared/preserved fish (canned tuna, mackerel). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 1 strong contender · 3 emerging · 6 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Cabo Verde is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 11 candidate lines proposed for Cabo Verde below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Cabo Verde. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Cabo Verde will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Cabo Verde will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
11 lines
Cabo Verde’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Cabo Verde at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Cabo Verde’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Cabo Verde’s own capability audit.

Minerals and metals

The endowment is negligible. USGS records only that kaolin, salt, sand and stone may have been produced, with information inadequate to make reliable estimates of output. There is no metallic mining and no refining or smelting; this is a raw endowment with effectively zero modern processing scale.

Raw base · industrial screen

Salt

Commercial salt production ceased in 1985 at Pedra de Lume and Santa Maria, and by 1999; national production was reported at less than one tonne a year. Today salt is artisanal and tourism-oriented, so the category is raw with production near zero.

Raw base · production near-zero

Pozzolana and volcanic ash as a cement additive

Volcanic ash is abundant and African demand for supplementary cementitious materials is rising, but the audit classes the resource as raw and unexploited. Anchor processing investment and proven cost-competitive cross-border delivery would be required before any scale claim.

Raw base · unexploited

Fish fillets

Cabo Verde imports fish fillets from Spain, valued at USD 3.25 million in 2024, so fillets are not a revealed comparative advantage product notwithstanding the strength of the wider fisheries position.

Capability inversion

Domestic-catch-based fish supply

Of roughly 19,000 tonnes processed and exported in 2024, only about 20 per cent used local raw materials; the remaining 80 per cent came from foreign vessels. The headline supply is a processing and re-export model, not a domestic resource-based industry.

Capability inversion · feedstock

Any trade-based complexity or RCA figure

Cabo Verde is not covered by the trade-based ECI ranking on the Harvard Atlas or OEC, falling below minimum export-coverage thresholds; OEC's 2022 ranking shows no data. Any trade-ECI figure should be treated as unavailable, not as zero.

Data availability
08 · Endowment
What Cabo Verde actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Cabo Verde. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Cabo Verde's endowment is maritime before it is territorial. The archipelago sits some 570 km off West Africa and commands a vast tuna-rich maritime economic zone whose stable capacity is put at 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes, against only about 5,000 tonnes currently fished. Pelagic fish, principally tuna and mackerel scad, account for more than 75 per cent of total fish production, a volume close to 9,000 tonnes. Access is framed by the EU Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement: under the 2024–2029 protocol the EU makes a financial contribution of 780,000 euros per year, 350,000 euros for access rights and 430,000 euros to support Cabo Verde's fisheries policy, covering 56 EU vessels fishing up to 7,000 tonnes, with vessel-owner fees of almost 600,000 euros per year. Most catch under that agreement, together with large landings from Japanese and Chinese fleets, is landed at Mindelo, where two processors absorb the main quantities.

The processing cluster built on that resource sits at the finished end of the chain, which is unusual for a state of this size. Frescomar, Spanish-owned and based on São Vicente, cans tuna and mackerel and employed around 1,700 workers at the end of 2020, most of them women, many of whom are the breadwinners in their households. Atunlo CV, established in 2015, produces frozen tuna and tuna loins on a design capacity of roughly 40,000 tonnes a year. Together the Frescomar/Atunlo group accounts for more than 80 per cent of national exports. Manufacturing is dominated by low-tech food and beverages, some 82 per cent of manufacturing exports, with canned fish the main product; Inpharma holds EU pharmaceutical certification and a residue of AGOA-linked light manufacturing produces footwear parts and knit garments.

The second endowment is position and port. Porto Grande at Mindelo occupies a natural deep-water bay with eleven wharves, roughly 1,590 metres of quay, container berths and 6,000 tonnes of cold storage, the only refrigerated warehousing in the country, handling around 670,000 tonnes of cargo a year across some 2,305 vessel calls, and hosting the CABNAVE ship-repair yard. Porto da Praia and Porto Grande together handle about 70 per cent of cargo, and the EU Global Gateway initiative has committed 246 million euros to expand the Maio, Palmeira and Porto Grande ports. Sal and Praia airports anchor air links, with national airports handling 3 million passengers in 2024, and seven airports placed under a 40-year VINCI concession in 2023. Cabo Verde is not ranked on the trade-based Economic Complexity Index because it falls below the Atlas and OEC coverage thresholds; its genuine complexity lies in tradable services — maritime logistics, ship repair, aviation transit and tourism — which goods-trade measures do not capture. Revealed comparative advantage, on UNCTAD's 2019 reading, is highest for preserved fish, then fresh and frozen fish, with clothing and footwear marginal.

The endowment in depth

Cabo Verde's mineral and energy base is thin and offers no route to heavy industry. On minerals the USGS Minerals Yearbook records only that kaolin, salt, sand and stone may have been produced, but that information was inadequate to make reliable estimates of output; the volcanic islands yield pozzolana (volcanic ash), basalt aggregate, limestone, clay, gypsum and salt, with national salt production reported by INE at less than 1 metric ton per year. There is no metallic mining and no refining or smelting. Historic salt exports peaked at roughly 30,000 t/year from Sal in the 19th century for the Brazil market, but commercial salt production ceased in 1985 at Pedra de Lume and by 1999, leaving only artisanal, tourism-oriented output. On energy there are no oil or gas reserves and no refining; all fossil fuel is imported. Installed capacity rose from 177 MW (2017) to 211 MW (2023) and total generation was 691 GWh (2023), with the renewable share reaching about 24% and targeted at 50% by 2030 under the Energy Sector Master Plan 2018–2040. Cabeólica wind (25.5 MW across four islands since 2012) has supplied about 25% of power, and in December 2025 AFC and Cabeólica inaugurated a further 13.5 MW of wind on Santiago plus 26 MWh of battery storage, pushing the renewable share toward roughly 30%. Gesto Energy's 2011 assessment found the nine islands could support 241 MW of wind at a levelised cost of around €0.05/kWh, with the full Renewable Energy Atlas identifying around 2,600 MW of total potential of which about 650 MW was feasible; but electricity remains high-cost (around €0.14/kWh wind tariff, Hove 2018) and the nine islands run as separate, unconnected grids — a structural ceiling on energy-intensive manufacturing.

Agriculture is structurally constrained: the terrain is semi-arid with only about 10% arable, and per the FAO GIEWS Country Brief the country relies heavily on food imports, which account for over 80% of its food consumption needs, with a 2021/22 cereal import requirement estimated at 94,500 tonnes. Fisheries, by contrast, is the core productive endowment. Pelagic fish (tuna and mackerel scad) account for more than 75% of total fish production, a volume close to 9,000 tonnes; processed mackerel and tuna represent about 57% of total exports at a value of USD 24 million (FAO 10-year value-chain strategy 2023–2033), and fish and fish products comprise over 70% of trade, estimated at around USD 31 million (ITC 2024 via FAO). The resource is underexploited: stable tuna capacity is 20,000–30,000 t but only about 5,000 t is currently fished (IPNLF). EU access is governed by the Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement, whose 2024–2029 protocol provides an EU financial contribution of €780,000 per year (€350,000 for access rights and €430,000 for sector support), covers 56 EU vessels (24 freezer seiners, 10 pole-and-line, 22 longliners) fishing up to 7,000 tonnes, and adds vessel-owner fees of almost €600,000 per year; the reference tonnage was cut to 7,000 t from the higher 2019–2024 level. In 2014–2016 the average annual catch was about 7,285 t, with Spanish vessels taking roughly 90%, most of it landed at Mindelo where two processors absorb the main quantities.

The industrial base is narrow and fish-anchored. Manufacturing is about 6.2% of GDP and 10.6% of jobs (UNIDO, 2019 data), with industry including construction at 10.45% of GDP (2024, World Bank); it is dominated by low-tech food and beverages (about 82% of manufacturing exports), with canned fish the main product, while medium/high-tech exports collapsed from 4.8% (2000) to 0.5% (2018). The named plants are Frescomar (Spanish-owned, São Vicente; canned tuna and mackerel), which employed around 1,700 workers at the end of 2020, most of them women who are often the breadwinners, and Atunlo CV (established 2015; frozen tuna and tuna loins; around 40,000 t/year design capacity), alongside CPCI and Salmar at Sal/Palmeira; the Frescomar/Atunlo group accounts for more than 80% of national exports. A crucial structural fact is that of the roughly 19,000 t processed and exported in 2024, only about 20% used local raw materials and the remaining 80% was sourced from foreign vessels — Cabo Verde functions as a processing and re-export platform rather than a domestic resource-based industry. Other manufacturing includes Inpharma (pharmaceuticals, EU-certified), beverages and bottling, and AGOA-linked light manufacturing (footwear parts, knit garments). Atunlo entered financial distress in 2024, cutting Frescomar's feedstock, and Atunlo's Porto Grande facilities were concessioned to a Frescomar-led consortium (with two Spanish firms) in February 2025.

Human capital is skilled but small, and infrastructure is the country's most distinctive asset. Adult literacy is about 91% and secondary enrolment 86.4% (2023, AfDB), but the labour force is small and youth unemployment is elevated (about 23.9–40%); specialised clusters exist in maritime work, fisheries processing (a female-dominated workforce) and tourism/hospitality, a large diaspora sends remittances of €266.77 million (2023), and garment/footwear labour costs run at about €300–500/month, with recurring skills gaps and the absence of a national quality-certification system. Porto Grande (Mindelo, São Vicente) sits in a natural deep-water bay with 11 wharves (about 1,590 m of quay), container berths and 6,000 t of cold storage — the only refrigerated warehousing in the country — handling around 670,000 t of cargo a year across some 2,305 vessels, with container throughput estimated at roughly 91,000–195,000 TEU, and it hosts the CABNAVE ship-repair yard. Porto da Praia and Porto Grande together handle about 70% of cargo, and the EU Global Gateway initiative committed €246 million to expand the Maio, Palmeira and Porto Grande ports. On aviation, Sal (Amílcar Cabral International) and Praia (Nelson Mandela) anchor air links, national airports handled 3 million passengers in 2024 (up 17%), and seven airports are under a 40-year VINCI concession (2023), reinforcing a historic mid-Atlantic refuelling and transhipment role; the standing constraint is that inter-island maritime transport is unreliable, costly and outdated.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Cabo Verde sits at the low-complexity, undiversified end of the spectrum and is not ranked on the trade-based ECI, as it falls below the minimum export-coverage and quality thresholds of the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity and the OEC, whose 2022 ranking shows "No data" for ECI Trade; any trade-ECI figure should be treated as unavailable rather than zero. The export basket is concentrated and low-tech: top exports in 2024 (OEC) were Processed Fish at USD 50.9M (about 64% of the USD 79.7M total), Scrap Iron at 3.24M, Fishing/Hunting Equipment at 2.93M, Footwear Parts at 2.7M and Knit Men's Undergarments at 1.87M. Revealed comparative advantage (UNCTAD 2019) is highest for preserved fish, second for fresh/frozen fish, with clothing and footwear flagged as marginally competitive; notably, the country imports fish fillets from Spain (USD 3.25M, 2024), so fillets are not an RCA product. Exports fell from USD 240M (2019) to 79.7M (2024), so a multi-year read is essential because single recent years are volatile.

The economy's genuine complexity lies in tradable services — maritime logistics, ship repair, aviation transit and tourism — that goods-trade ECI does not capture. Feasible diversification is credibly anchored on the existing fish-processing cluster (higher-value canned and pouched products, and the fishmeal and fish oil by-products already produced by Frescomar) and on blue-economy adjacencies such as aquaculture (AQUAMAIO and an organic-shrimp pilot in São Vicente). Atlas-specific product-space adjacencies could not be retrieved, since Cabo Verde lacks a full published Atlas profile.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Cabo Verde's single strongest continental supply position is prepared and preserved fish — canned tuna and mackerel (HS 1604) — the only category that combines all five tests. The input base is a tuna-rich EEZ with stable capacity of 20,000–30,000 t against only about 5,000 t currently fished (IPNLF), supplemented by landings from foreign fleets channelled through Mindelo. The processing position is already at the finished end: Frescomar (canned tuna and mackerel; around 1,700 workers at the end of 2020) and Atunlo (frozen loins; around 40,000 t design capacity) together account for more than 80% of national exports. On competitiveness, prepared fish is the country's highest-RCA product (UNCTAD 2019) and about 64% of merchandise exports (OEC 2024), with EU sanitary approval and ICCAT and EU SFPA market access giving a demonstrated export track record. On deliverability, canned fish is shelf-stable and high value-to-weight, shipping well from Porto Grande's cold-chain and container facilities, unlike bulk commodities. On continental demand, the FAO WAPI factsheet records that Western Africa's imports of aquatic products rose from USD 436 million in 2000 to USD 2.2 billion in 2021, so the substitution prize is large and real.

The honest limits are significant. Feedstock dependency is the central vulnerability, since about 80% of processed raw material comes from foreign vessels rather than domestic catch; single-buyer and single-investor concentration compounds it, with Spanish ownership dominant and Atunlo's 2024 financial collapse having halted Frescomar's supply. There is also EU rules-of-origin derogation risk: the GSP waiver authorising up to 5,000 t of canned tuna ran from 1 January 2019, and the 3,375 t canned-mackerel and melva derogation ended on 31 December 2020, triggering Frescomar layoffs of 104 workers from 14 January 2021, projected to reach 484. Small scale and high energy costs sit behind these. The capability is therefore real but fragile.

Current reality

Cabo Verde is a small, service-driven archipelagic economy, with GDP of USD 2.73 billion in 2024 and a population of roughly half a million. Its only genuine continental supply card is prepared and preserved fish, canned tuna and mackerel, supported by maritime logistics and bunkering services; everything else is emerging or aspirational. It has no minerals, no energy export and a tiny, narrow manufacturing base. Manufacturing is about 6.2 per cent of GDP and 10.6 per cent of jobs, and medium and high-technology exports collapsed from 4.8 per cent in 2000 to 0.5 per cent in 2018. Processed fish was about 64 per cent of merchandise exports in 2024, and the destination pattern is overwhelmingly European — Spain, Portugal and Italy — with intra-African orientation negligible and roughly 94 per cent of goods exports going to the EU. Agriculture is structurally constrained by semi-arid conditions and about 10 per cent arable land; the FAO records that the country relies heavily on food imports, which account for over 80 per cent of its food consumption needs.

The binding constraints are candidly stated in the audit. Of the roughly 19,000 tonnes processed and exported in 2024, only about 20 per cent used local raw materials; the remaining 80 per cent came from foreign vessels, so Cabo Verde functions as a processing and re-export platform rather than a domestic resource-based industry. Atunlo entered financial distress in 2024, cutting Frescomar's feedstock, and its Porto Grande facilities were concessioned to a Frescomar-led consortium in February 2025. Energy is high-cost and fragmented: installed capacity of 211 MW in 2023, generation of 691 GWh, a renewable share of about 24 per cent moving toward 30 per cent after the December 2025 addition of 13.5 MW of wind and 26 MWh of storage on Santiago, but nine islands running as separate, unconnected grids — a structural ceiling on any energy-intensive manufacturing. Merchandise exports of about USD 80 million in 2024, down from USD 240 million in 2019, are minuscule against continental demand.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 11 candidate lines · will change

Cabo Verde’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Cabo Verde’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Cabo Verde will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Cabo Verde’s 11 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 1Emerging 3Aspirational 6Grey 1
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Pharmaceuticals (generics)

Inpharma EU-certified; UNIDO GMP roadmap · Maturity: Finished, niche · Competitiveness: Very large
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 13.65 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
300410Medicaments; containing penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged
300420Medicaments; containing antibiotics (other than penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives), for therapeutic or pro
300431Medicaments; containing insulin, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale
300432Medicaments; containing corticosteroid hormones, their derivatives or structural analogues (but not containing antibioti
300439Medicaments; containing hormones (but not insulin), adrenal cortex hormones or antibiotics, for therapeutic or prophylac
300440Medicaments containing alkaloids or derivatives thereof, not containing hormones, steroids...
300441Medicaments; containing alkaloids or their derivatives, containing ephedrine or its salts, for therapeutic or prophylact
300442Medicaments; containing alkaloids or their derivatives, containing pseudoephedrine (INN) or its salts, for therapeutic o
300443Medicaments; containing alkaloids or their derivatives, containing norephedrine or its salts, for therapeutic or prophyl
300449Medicaments; containing alkaloids or their derivatives; other than ephedrine, pseudoephedrine (INN) or norephedrine or t
300450Medicaments; containing vitamins or their derivatives, for therapeutic or prophylactic use, packaged for retail sale
300460Medicaments; containing antimalarial active principles described in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, for therapeutic o
300490Medicaments; consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, packaged for retail sale
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): Central Medical Stores · Malaria Control · control: predominant. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Cabo Verde imported USD 10.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 3.25 bnSouth Africa USD 1.72 bnAlgeria USD 841 mNigeria USD 593.9 mMorocco USD 554.5 mEthiopia USD 459.6 mKenya USD 452.1 mCote dIvoire USD 403.1 m

Source: UNIDO/caboverdeexpert · 2025

Bottled water/beverages

Desalination + bottling · Maturity: Finished, domestic scale · Competitiveness: Large but freight-sensitive
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 1.07 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
220110Waters; mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor
220190Waters; other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter nor flavoured), ice and s
220210Waters; including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavoured
220290Non-alcoholic beverages (excluding water, fruit or vegetable juices and milk)
220291Non-alcoholic beverages; non-alcoholic beer
220299Non-alcoholic beverages; other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or vegetabl
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Cabo Verde imported USD 7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Botswana USD 162.1 mSouth Africa USD 126.7 mLibya USD 79 mMorocco USD 73 mGhana USD 57.6 mEgypt USD 42.8 mCote dIvoire USD 39.5 mSouth Sudan USD 35.8 m

Source: UN CIP profile · 2021

Rum/spirits (grogue)

Sugarcane (Santo Antão/Santiago); artisanal · Maturity: Finished, micro-scale · Competitiveness: Small
GREY
USD 907.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
220820Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marc
220830Whiskies
220840Rum and other spirits obtained by distilling fermented sugar-cane products
220850Gin and geneva
220860Vodka
220870Liqueurs and cordials
220890Spirits, liqueurs and other spirituous beverages; n.e.c. in heading no. 2208
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 2.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 338.8 mMorocco USD 66.2 mGhana USD 52.4 mNigeria USD 52 mKenya USD 45.4 mNamibia USD 42.5 mEgypt USD 29 mMauritius USD 24 m

Source: Britannica · 2024

Prepared/preserved fish (canned tuna, mackerel)

EU-access tuna EEZ + Frescomar/Atunlo canning; >80% of exports; highest RCA · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Large — W. Africa aquatic imports USD 2.2bn (2021)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince
160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc
160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604
160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved
160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs
160431Fish preparations; caviar
160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: FAO; OEC; UNCTAD; EU Parliament · 2021–2025

Knit garments/undergarments

AGOA/free-zone light manufacturing · Maturity: Finished, small scale · Competitiveness: Large apparel import market
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 748 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
610910T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of cotton, knitted or crocheted
610990T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crocheted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 0.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 231.5 mMorocco USD 57.3 mSouth Sudan USD 46 mLibya USD 45 mAlgeria USD 41.7 mEgypt USD 38 mGuinea USD 34.7 mGhana USD 29.3 m

Source: OEC · 2024

Footwear parts

AGOA-era light manufacturing; top-5 export · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 499.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
640610Footwear; parts, uppers and parts thereof, other than stiffeners
640620Footwear; parts, outer soles and heels, of rubber or plastics
640690Footwear; parts, n.e.c. in heading 6406
640691Parts of footwear, of wood
640699Parts of footwear (excluding outer soles and heels of rubber or plastics, uppers and parts...
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Cabo Verde imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 144 mAlgeria USD 90.5 mMorocco USD 88.5 mEthiopia USD 47.2 mEgypt USD 30 mAngola USD 16.4 mSouth Africa USD 14.7 mLibya USD 13.9 m

Source: OEC; UNCTAD · 2019-2024

Salt

Solar evaporation ponds (Sal/Maio); production near-zero · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 303.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
250100Salt (including table salt and denatured salt); pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution; sea water
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 38.2 mCote dIvoire USD 22.9 mUganda USD 21.9 mSouth Africa USD 19.6 mZimbabwe USD 18.5 mMalawi USD 15.1 mZambia USD 13.6 mGhana USD 12.9 m

Source: USGS · 2010-2018

Aquaculture products (shrimp, finfish)

AQUAMAIO; São Vicente shrimp pilot; EEZ · Maturity: Pilot/nascent · Competitiveness: Large and growing
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 302.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030611Crustaceans; frozen, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not,
030612Crustaceans; frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell,
030613Frozen shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, incl. shrimps and prawns in shell, cooked...
030614Crustaceans; frozen, crabs, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shell, cooked by steamin
030615Crustaceans; frozen, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smok
030616Crustaceans; frozen, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or
030617Crustaceans; frozen, shrimps and prawns, excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before o
030619Crustaceans; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.1, in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking; in shel
030621Rock lobster and other sea crawfish "Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp. and Jasus spp.", even smoked,...
030622Lobsters "Homarus spp.", even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried,...
030623Shrimps and prawns, whether in shell or not, live, dried, salted or in brine, incl. shrimps...
030624Crabs, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted or in brine,...
030626Cold-water shrimps and prawns "Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon", even smoked, whether in shell . . .
030627Shrimps and prawns, even smoked, whether in shell or not, live, fresh, chilled, dried, salted...
030629Crustaceans, even smoked, fit for human consumption, whether in shell or not, live, fresh,...
030631Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), in shell or not
030632Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, lobsters (Homarus spp.), whether in shell or not
030633Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, crabs, whether in shell or not
030634Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), in shell or not
030635Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, cold-water shrimps and prawns (Pandalus spp., Crangon crangon), in shell or not
030636Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, shrimps and prawns excluding cold-water varieties, in shell or not
030639Crustaceans; live, fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.3, in shell or not
030691Crustaceans; rock lobsters and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp., Panulirus spp., Jasus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030692Crustaceans; lobsters (Homarus spp.), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030693Crustaceans; crabs, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030694Crustaceans; Norway lobsters (Nephrops norvegicus), smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030695Crustaceans; shrimps and prawns, smoked, cooked or not, whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked before or during smoking
030699Crustaceans; smoked, whole, cooked or not, n.e.c. in item no. 0306.9, in shell or not
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 5 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 1.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 122.8 mMorocco USD 101.3 mSouth Africa USD 38.5 mMauritius USD 17.1 mSeychelles USD 4.8 mTunisia USD 2.4 mAlgeria USD 1.6 mGhana USD 1.5 m

Source: World Bank; FAO · 2024

Frozen fish & tuna loins

Same EEZ + Atunlo frozen-loin line (~40,000 t design capacity) · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Large — frozen fish ~90% of African fish imports
EMERGING
USD 286 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
030211Fish; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhyn
030212Fresh or chilled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta,...
030213Fish; fresh or chilled, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tsch
030214Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0
030219Fish; fresh or chilled, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish off
030221Fish; fresh or chilled, halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, Hippoglossus hippoglossus, Hippoglossus stenolepis), excl
030222Fish; fresh or chilled, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of s
030223Fish; fresh or chilled, sole (Solea spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 03
030224Fish; fresh or chilled, turbots (Psetta maxima, Scophthalmidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish o
030229Fish; fresh or chilled, flat fish, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.2, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offa
030231Fish; fresh or chilled, albacore or longfinned tunas (Thunnus alalunga), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edibl
030232Fish; fresh or chilled, yellowfin tunas (Thunnus albacares), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal
030233Fish; fresh or chilled, skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030234Fish; fresh or chilled, bigeye tunas (Thunnus obesus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030235Fish; fresh or chilled, Atlantic and Pacific bluefin tunas (Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus orientalis), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030236Fish; fresh or chilled, southern bluefin tunas (Thunnus maccoyii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030239Fish; fresh or chilled, tuna, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.3, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030240Fresh or chilled herrings (Clupea harengus, clupea pallasii)
030241Fish; fresh or chilled, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030242Fish; fresh or chilled, anchovies (Engraulis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030243Fish; fresh or chilled, sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.), brisling or sprats (Sprattus sprattus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030244Fish; fresh or chilled, mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030245Fish; fresh or chilled, jack and horse mackerel (Trachurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030246Fresh or chilled cobia "Rachycentron canadum"
030247Fish; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030249Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.4, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030250Fresh or chilled cod (gadus morhua, gadus ogac, gadus macrocephalus)
030251Fish; fresh or chilled, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030252Fish; fresh or chilled, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030253Fish; fresh or chilled, coalfish (Pollachius virens), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030254Fish; fresh or chilled, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030255Fish; fresh or chilled, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030256Fish; fresh or chilled, blue whitings (Micromesistius poutassou, Micromesistius australis),excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030259Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in item no. 0302.5, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030261Fresh or chilled sardines (Sardina pilchardus, Sardinops spp.), sardinella (Sardinella spp.),...
030262Fresh or chilled haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030264Fresh or chilled mackerel (Scomber scombrus, Scomber australasicus, Scomber japonicus)
030265Fresh or chilled dogfish and other sharks
030269Fresh or chilled freshwater and saltwater fish (excluding salmonidae, flat fish, tunas, skipjack...
030270Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes
030271Fish; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030272Fish; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030273Fish; fresh or chilled, Carp (as specified by the WCO.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030274Fish; fresh or chilled, eels (Anguilla spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030279Fish; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and snakeheads (Channa spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030281Fish; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030282Fish; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030283Fish; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030284Fish; fresh or chilled, seabass (Dicentrarchus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030285Fish; fresh or chilled, seabream (Sparidae), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030289Fish; fresh or chilled, n.e.c. in heading 0302, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0302.91 to 0302.99
030290Fresh or chilled fish livers and roes
030291Fish; fresh or chilled, livers, roes and milt
030292Fish; fresh or chilled, shark fins
030299Fish; fresh or chilled, fish fins (other than shark fins), heads, tails, maws and other edible fish offal
030410Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat, whether or not minced
030411Fresh or chilled fillets and other meat whether or not minced" of swordfish "Xiphias gladius"
030419Fresh or chilled fillets and other fish meat whether or not minced" (excluding swordfish and . . .
030420Frozen fish fillets
030429Frozen fish fillets (excluding swordfish and toothfish)
030431Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030432Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030433Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, Nile perch (Lates niloticus)
030439Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, carp (as specified by the WCO), eels (Anguilla spp.), and snakeheads (Channa spp.)
030441Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha, Oncorhynchus kisutch, Oncorhynchus masou and Oncorhynchus rhodurus), Atlantic (Salmo salar), Danube (Hucho hucho)
030442Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae, Oncorhynchus apache and Oncorhynchus chrysogaster)
030443Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Citharidae)
030444Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030445Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030446Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030447Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, dogfish and other sharks
030448Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030449Fish fillets; fresh or chilled, other than fish of heading 0304.4
030451Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030452Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, salmonidae
030453Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae, and Muraenolepididae
030454Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030455Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030457Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030459Fish meat; excluding fillets, whether or not minced; fresh or chilled, of fish n.e.c. in item no. 0304.5
030461Fish fillets; frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.)
030462Fish fillets; frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.)
030463Fish fillets; frozen, Nile Perch (Lates niloticus)
030469Fish fillets; frozen, carp (Cyprinus/Carassius/Ctenopharyngodon idellus/Hypophthalmichthys/Cirrhinus/Mylopharyngodon piceus/Catla catla/Labeo/Osteochilus hasselti/Leptobarbus hoeveni/Megalobrama), eels (Anguilla) and snakeheads (Channa)
030471Fish fillets; frozen, cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus)
030472Fish fillets; frozen, haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus)
030473Fish fillets; frozen, coalfish (Pollachius virens)
030474Fish fillets; frozen, hake (Merluccius spp., Urophycis spp.)
030475Fish fillets; frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030479Fish fillets; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae other than cod, haddock, coalfish, hake, and Alaska pollock
030481Fish fillets; frozen, salmon, Pacific (Oncorhynchus nerka, Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Oncorhynchus keta, Oncorhynchus tschawytscha, Oncorhynchus kisutch, Oncorhynchus masou, Oncorhynchus rhodurus), Atlantic (Salmo salar), and Danube (Hucho hucho)
030482Fish fillets; frozen, trout (Salmo trutta, Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus clarki, Oncorhynchus aguabonita, Oncorhynchus gilae, Oncorhynchus apache and Oncorhynchus chrysogaster)
030483Fish fillets; frozen, flat fish (Pleuronectidae, Bothidae, Cynoglossidae, Soleidae, Scophthalmidae and Citharidae)
030484Fish fillets; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030485Fish fillets; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030486Fish fillets; frozen, herrings (Clupea harengus, Clupea pallasii)
030487Fish fillets; frozen, tunas (of the genus Thunnus), skipjack tuna (stripe-bellied bonito) (Katsuwonus pelamis)
030488Fish fillets; frozen, dogfish, other sharks, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030489Fish fillets; frozen, of fish n.e.c. in heading 0304.8
030490Frozen fish meat, whether or not minced (excluding fillets)
030491Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, swordfish (Xiphias gladius)
030492Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, toothfish (Dissostichus spp.)
030493Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads
030494Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030495Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, of the families Bregmacerotidae, Euclichthyidae, Gadidae, Macrouridae, Melanonidae, Merlucciidae, Moridae and Muraenolepididae, other than Alaska Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
030496Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, dogfish and other sharks
030497Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, rays and skates (Rajidae)
030499Fish meat, excluding fillets, whether or not minced; frozen, n.e.c. in item no. 0304.9
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 2.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 67.7 mNigeria USD 40.7 mEgypt USD 36.7 mMorocco USD 32.8 mGhana USD 20.3 mAlgeria USD 18.2 mLibya USD 15.9 mMauritius USD 11.8 m

Source: FAO; Ecofin; FarFish · 2015–2024

Fishmeal & fish oil

Cannery by-product (Frescomar) · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Growing aquafeed/animal-feed
EMERGING
USD 113.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
230110Flours, meals and pellets; of meat or meat offal, greaves
230120Flours, meals and pellets; of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 39.3 mNigeria USD 30.6 mZambia USD 11.3 mTunisia USD 7.3 mZimbabwe USD 6.8 mMozambique USD 6.3 mEgypt USD 4.4 mGhana USD 3.1 m

Source: FAO; anacao.cv · 2018–2024

Pozzolana/volcanic ash (SCM)

Abundant volcanic ash; rising African SCM demand · Maturity: Raw, unexploited · Competitiveness: Significant
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 35.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
253010Vermiculite, perlite and chlorites; unexpanded
253020Kieserite, epsomite (natural magnesium sulphates)
253040Natural micaceous iron oxides
253090Mineral substances; n.e.c. in chapter 25
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cabo Verde imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 12.6 mSouth Africa USD 5.6 mMorocco USD 5 mAlgeria USD 3.2 mGhana USD 2.6 mNigeria USD 1.5 mTunisia USD 1.2 mZimbabwe USD 0.6 m

Source: USGS; RMI · 2016-2023

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Cabo Verde is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Cabo Verde buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Cabo Verde is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 0.90 bn

Cabo Verde’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

11

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierCabo Verde imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Pharmaceuticals (generics)ASPIRATIONALUSD 10.1 mUSD 13.65 bn
Bottled water/beveragesASPIRATIONALUSD 7 mUSD 1.07 bn
Frozen fish & tuna loinsEMERGINGUSD 2.7 mUSD 286 m
Rum/spirits (grogue)GREYUSD 2.2 mUSD 907.2 m
Aquaculture products (shrimp, finfish)ASPIRATIONALUSD 1.4 mUSD 302.2 m
Knit garments/undergarmentsASPIRATIONALUSD 0.8 mUSD 748 m
Prepared/preserved fish (canned tuna, mackerel)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.3 mUSD 850.3 m
SaltASPIRATIONALUSD 0.1 mUSD 303.1 m
Fishmeal & fish oilEMERGINGUSD 0.1 mUSD 113.9 m
Footwear partsEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 499.7 m
Pozzolana/volcanic ash (SCM)ASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 35.6 m

Left-hand column: what Cabo Verde itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Cabo Verde’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 11 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Cabo Verde’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Cabo Verde. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Cabo Verde’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Cabo Verde’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01EgyptUSD 3.65 bn
02South AfricaUSD 2.7 bn
03AlgeriaUSD 1.07 bn
04MoroccoUSD 1.02 bn
05NigeriaUSD 756.9 m
06EthiopiaUSD 506.8 m
07KenyaUSD 497.5 m
08Cote dIvoireUSD 465.5 m
09LibyaUSD 368.2 m
10GhanaUSD 240.1 m
11BotswanaUSD 162.1 m
12TunisiaUSD 154.9 m
13South SudanUSD 81.8 m
14MauritiusUSD 52.9 m
15NamibiaUSD 42.5 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Cabo Verde. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Cabo Verde would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Cabo Verde to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Secure domestic feedstock

Upgrade the national fishing fleet and landing and cold-chain infrastructure so that a majority of cannery throughput is locally caught, reducing dependency from about 80% foreign-sourced to a defensible share.

02

Diversify processing ownership and offtake

Move beyond a single Spanish group and durably resolve the Atunlo/Frescomar restructuring so that supply is not hostage to one investor's solvency.

03

Lock in rules-of-origin / AfCFTA preferences

Ensure canned fish qualifies for duty-free intra-African access, replacing dependence on EU derogations with a continental framework.

04

Lower and stabilise energy cost

Continue the Cabeólica/BESS build-out toward 50% renewables by 2030 to make processing competitive on price, quality, warranty and service.

05

Build a national quality-certification body

Establish a certification and quality-management system to guarantee the quality and warranty dimensions for African buyers, which no national body currently provides.

06

Position Porto Grande as a continental fish-logistics hub

Leverage the €246M EU Global Gateway port investment and the 6,000 t of cold storage so Porto Grande serves as a West African cold-chain and transhipment node.

The binding constraints
·

Energy is high-cost and fragmented The nine islands run as separate, unconnected grids with heavy fuel-import dependence, and electricity remains high-cost despite renewables progress, capping any energy-intensive manufacturing.

·

Feedstock dependency About 80% of processed-fish raw material is foreign-sourced and domestic catch is underdeveloped, so the headline supply position is a re-export and processing model vulnerable to supplier shocks such as Atunlo's 2024 collapse.

·

Scale The population is around 0.5 million with a tiny labour force, and merchandise exports were only about USD 80M in 2024 — minuscule against continental demand.

·

Archipelagic logistics Inter-island shipping is unreliable, costly and outdated, fragmenting any multi-island production base.

·

Capital concentration and weak quality infrastructure Key processors are foreign-owned and domestic capital markets are thin, and there is no national certification or quality-management system, with only a handful of EU-compliant firms such as the fish processors and Inpharma.

·

Single-market dependence About 94% of goods exports go to the EU with near-zero intra-African trade today, leaving continental supply at a standing start.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Cabo Verde’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Feedstock dependency is the central vulnerability. About 80 per cent of processed fish raw material is foreign-sourced and the domestic catch is underdeveloped. The headline supply position is a re-export and processing model exposed to supplier shocks, as Atunlo's 2024 distress demonstrated.

05

Energy is high-cost and structurally fragmented. The nine islands run as separate, unconnected grids with heavy fuel-import dependence, capping energy-intensive manufacturing despite renewables progress toward the 50 per cent by 2030 target.

06

Scale is the standing arithmetic problem. A population of roughly half a million, a tiny labour force and merchandise exports of only about USD 80 million in 2024 are minuscule against continental demand.

07

Ownership and capital are concentrated in foreign hands. Key processors are foreign-owned, principally by a single Spanish group, and domestic capital markets are thin. Diversifying processing ownership and offtake, and durably resolving the Atunlo/Frescomar restructuring, would have to be achieved.

08

There is no national quality infrastructure. Cabo Verde has no national certification or quality-management system, and only a handful of EU-compliant firms — the fish processors and Inpharma. A national quality-certification body would have to be built to guarantee the quality and warranty dimensions for African buyers.

09

Trade orientation is European, not continental. Roughly 94 per cent of goods exports go to the EU and intra-African trade is near zero today, which is a standing start for continental supply. Rules-of-origin and AfCFTA preferences would have to be locked in so that canned fish qualifies for duty-free intra-African access in place of EU-derogation dependence.

10

Archipelagic logistics fragment any multi-island production base. Inter-island maritime transport is unreliable, costly and outdated, even as Porto Grande itself remains the country's distinctive logistics asset.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Cabo Verde's Draft 1 bundle rests on one finished-goods capability and one service position: canned tuna and mackerel out of the Frescomar and Atunlo cluster at Mindelo, and mid-Atlantic maritime logistics, transhipment, bunkering and ship repair through Porto Grande and CABNAVE, with frozen fish and tuna loins one beneficiation step below as the nearest runner-up. What must be proven is that the cannery can be fed from domestic waters rather than foreign vessels, that the Atunlo/Frescomar restructuring is durably resolved and ownership broadened, that rules-of-origin and AfCFTA preferences replace EU-derogation dependence, that the Cabeólica and battery build-out lowers and stabilises energy cost, that a national quality-certification body exists to carry the quality and warranty dimensions for African buyers, and that Porto Grande's 6,000 tonnes of cold storage and the 246 million euro EU Global Gateway port investment are turned into a working West African cold-chain node. Salt, pozzolana, beverages, pharmaceuticals and aquaculture remain correctly placed as aspirational until anchor processing investment and cost-competitive cross-border delivery are demonstrated.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Cabo Verde is shown 11 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Cabo Verde to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2