Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
ComorosBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Comoros — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
8
Draft 1 candidate lines for Comoros
The Minister’s brief · for Ibrahim Mohamed Abdourazak · Comoros
Minister Abdourazak, Comoros holds what no other nation on this continent can claim: roughly sixty per cent of the world's ylang-ylang, thirty to forty tonnes of essential oil distilled each year across Anjouan's three hundred and fifty stills, already stepped up from raw flower to certified, steam-distilled oil that scents Chanel No. 5. This is documented production leadership, not aspiration. Africa's own fragrance market runs to USD 8.6 billion a year, yet your oil today flows to Europe, not to African buyers. The Right of Supply gives Comoros a twenty-five-year first right to meet continental demand, disciplined by Match-or-Release, so it is never a subsidy and never a captive contract: you must always meet the market, and you remain free to walk from it. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. The tonnages, the power ceiling, the claim itself await your correction. That is the next move, and it is yours.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Comoros
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Ibrahim Mohamed Abdourazak, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Comoros · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Abdourazak,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Comoros — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Comoros is in this room

The Union of the Comoros brings to the continental table one endowment of documented global standing: ylang-ylang essential oil under HS 3301.29, where it produces some 60 per cent of world supply at 30 to 40 tonnes a year, ahead of Madagascar, concentrated on Anjouan's 350 distilleries, and where it already exports steam-distilled oil rather than raw flowers with certified capacity anchored by a distiller operating since 2014. Cloves, at 7,663 tonnes in 2023 and fourth in the world, and vanilla, historically second in the world, stand behind it. The constraint must be stated with equal candour: the buyer for fragrance oils is Europe rather than Africa, absolute scale is small at around USD 2.21 million of essential-oil exports in 2023, and around 44 MW of mostly diesel power at roughly USD 0.30 per kWh, of which only about 56 per cent is usable, is a hard ceiling on any processing scale-up. Comoros holds a genuine right to supply on production leadership, but a niche one, and the work ahead is to make the demand and the power match the endowment.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Comoros, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Comoros

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
8draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Comoros’s draft bundle. 8 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Ylang-ylang essential oil, Cloves (whole/dried). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 strong contender · 1 emerging · 3 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Comoros is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 8 candidate lines proposed for Comoros below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Comoros. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Comoros will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Comoros will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
8 lines
Comoros’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Comoros at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Comoros’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Comoros’s own capability audit.

Minerals, metals and industrial-mineral supply

No significant metallic or industrial-mineral reserves or production are recorded by USGS or BGS for Comoros, and the volcanic archipelago offers only construction materials. There is no mining sector, no refining and no beneficiation; the audit instructs that Comoros be stated plainly as a non-entity in continental minerals.

Raw base · industrial screen

Clove oil and essential-oil derivatives

Domestic clove feedstock and distillation skills exist, but the beneficiation stage today is raw cloves only, with no oil extraction at scale. The audit tiers this as aspirational against niche African demand, so it cannot be claimed as present capability.

Capability inversion

Processed and canned tuna and fishery products

Landings of around 16,000 tonnes against an estimated 33,000-tonne potential are almost entirely artisanal, with no domestic industrial processing and effectively no exports. The Qatar and Sri Lanka joint-venture tuna facility is under construction and processing is not yet operational.

Capability inversion

Construction aggregates and pozzolan

Volcanic rock and ash are abundant, but there is no Tier-1 production data and extraction is raw and for domestic use. The audit classes the category as grey and insufficient evidence, and notes the material is bulky and low-value, viable intra-regionally at best.

Grey · insufficient evidence

Coconut and copra products

The historical copra crop is now marginal with negligible processing. The audit classes this as grey and insufficient evidence, resting on historical country studies rather than current production data.

Grey · insufficient evidence

Cloves as a high-volume continental prize

Cloves are the largest export earner and Comoros is the fourth-largest global producer, but Africa is a minor clove importer at around 4.5 per cent of world demand and Asia dominates buying. Value-addition is absent, so the position is an export earner rather than a continental supply claim.

Scale-matching
08 · Endowment
What Comoros actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Comoros. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

The Union of the Comoros is a three-island Indian Ocean archipelago — Ngazidja (Grande Comore), Nzwani (Anjouan) and Mwali (Mohéli) — whose productive base rests almost entirely on three colonial-legacy niche export crops. Agriculture, including fishing and forestry, accounted for approximately 36.6 per cent of GDP in 2024 and employs more than 80 per cent of the population. The country is the world's leading producer of ylang-ylang essential oil, holding roughly 60 per cent of global supply according to UNDP and the Enhanced Integrated Framework, producing between 30 and 40 tonnes a year, ahead of Madagascar, mainly on Anjouan, home to 350 distilleries; some sources cite up to around 70 tonnes a year. It is the fourth-largest global producer of cloves, at 7,663 tonnes in 2023 per FAOSTAT, and was historically the world's second-largest vanilla producer, with FAOSTAT recording around 20.6 tonnes in 2021 and other sources citing around 240 tonnes in 2022. Fisheries land some 16,000 tonnes a year against an estimated 33,000-tonne potential, almost entirely artisanal, within an maritime economic zone of roughly 160,000 square kilometres straddling the rich Mozambique Channel tuna grounds, which is exploited mainly by foreign fleets under EU access fees.

The industrial base behind these endowments is narrow but real at one point. Industry including construction was approximately 9.56 per cent of GDP in 2024, with manufacturing alone at a few per cent. What is actually manufactured is ylang-ylang distillation, using artisanal alembics alongside the Biolandes distillery on Anjouan — the region's largest, operating since 2014 with ten stainless-steel stills — together with vanilla curing and preparation, for example Vaniacom Ltd, established 1999, producing around 8 tonnes a year of organic product, small clove drying, and tiny domestic-market sawmilling, printing, plastics and food units. Specialised tacit skills exist in ylang-ylang distillation and vanilla curing, a century-old plantation legacy, but there is no university of scale and tertiary and technical and vocational training are thin. Labour is cheap and largely informal, around 60 per cent of the workforce, with wages historically around USD 3 to 4 a day. Remittances are the economic mainstay at approximately 22.6 per cent of GDP in 2023, exceeding goods exports, from a diaspora of some 150,000 to 300,000 people, mostly in France.

Comoros sits at the extreme low-complexity end of the global distribution — so low and data-poor that it is omitted from the published OEC and Harvard economic complexity country rankings. Revealed comparative advantage is well above one in cloves, ylang-ylang and essential oils, and vanilla, with the three cash crops making up around 80 per cent of exports, but product complexity is low; essential oils carry a negative product-complexity value of approximately minus 1.22, ranked 893rd of 1,028 on OEC. The product-space implication is that feasible nearby moves are confined to deeper processing of existing crops — vanilla extract and powder, standardised and blended essential oils, natural cosmetics — and basic fish processing, rather than a leap into complex manufacturing. UNCTAD's Productive Capacities Index recorded Comoros as the only small island developing state scoring below 25 in 2018, the weakest in its peer group, corroborating a thin structural base across energy, ICT, transport and human capital.

The endowment in depth

Comoros carries essentially no sub-soil endowment. No significant metallic or industrial-mineral reserves or production are recorded for the archipelago by USGS or BGS; there is no mining sector, no refining and no beneficiation, and the country is, plainly, a non-entity in continental minerals. The volcanic geology yields only construction materials — basaltic aggregate, sand and pozzolan/volcanic ash. The energy base is equally thin and is the binding constraint on any heavy-manufacturing ambition. Installed generation was about 44 MW in 2021, of which roughly 37.3 MW is small-scale diesel (25 MW on Grande Comore, 8.3 MW on Anjouan, 4 MW on Mohéli), about 6 MW solar and 970 kW hydro; the mix is about 94.4% heavy fuels. Peak demand was 24 MW in 2021, but only around 56% of installed capacity was usable owing to poor maintenance, and load-shedding reached roughly 13% of supply on Grande Comore. Electricity is among the most expensive in Africa at about USD 0.30/kWh, with industrial tariffs of roughly USD 0.24–0.29/kWh against a cost of service near USD 0.35/kWh (World Bank, 2022). A 16 MW solar PV plant with 9.1 MWh of battery storage, developed by the UAE's Masdar–Global South Utilities, has been commissioned on Grande Comore.

Agriculture, including fishing and forestry, is the real economy: it accounted for about 36.6% of GDP in 2024 and employs more than 80% of the population. The endowment is three colonial-legacy niche crops. Cloves came to 7,663 tonnes in 2023, making Comoros the world's fourth-largest producer (FAOSTAT). Ylang-ylang essential oil output runs at 30–40 tonnes a year — ahead of Madagascar — concentrated on Anjouan, home to some 350 distilleries, with certain sources citing up to about 70 tonnes a year (Premium Beauty News). Vanilla is historically the world's number two: FAOSTAT recorded about 20.6 tonnes in 2021, while other sources cite roughly 240 tonnes in 2022. Coconut/copra is now marginal. Fisheries land about 16,000 tonnes a year against an estimated 33,000-tonne potential; the catch is almost entirely artisanal, with no domestic industrial processing and effectively no exports, though a tuna-processing facility (a Qatar/Sri Lanka joint venture) is under construction. The EEZ of about 160,000 km² straddles the rich Mozambique Channel tuna grounds, which are exploited mainly by foreign fleets under EU access fees.

The manufacturing base is negligible. Industry including construction was about 9.56% of GDP in 2024, with manufacturing alone only a few percent. What is actually produced is ylang-ylang distillation — artisanal alembics alongside the Biolandes distillery on Anjouan, the region's largest, operating since 2014 with ten stainless-steel stills — plus vanilla curing and preparation (for example Vaniacom Ltd, established 1999, about 8 tonnes a year of organic beans), small clove drying, and tiny domestic-market sawmilling, printing, plastics and food units. No special economic zone is yet operational, though one is planned under the AfDB ports project. UNCTAD's Productive Capacities Index recorded Comoros as the only Small Island Developing State scoring below 25 in 2018 — the weakest in its peer group.

Human capital and logistics compound the ceiling. Labour is cheap and largely informal, around 60% of the workforce, with wages historically about USD 3–4 a day; there is no university of scale and tertiary and TVET provision is thin. Specialised tacit skills nonetheless exist in ylang-ylang distillation and vanilla curing, a century-old plantation legacy. Remittances are the economic mainstay at about 22.6% of GDP in 2023, exceeding goods exports, sustained by a diaspora of some 150,000–300,000 people mostly in France. On infrastructure, Mutsamudu on Anjouan is the only deep-water port (built 1982, maximum draught about 8.5 m, roughly 120 vessel calls a year) and serves as a transhipment hub for around 75% of traffic feeding Moroni and Fomboni; about 90% of cargo moves by sea. The road network of roughly 850 km (2024) is poor, and inter-island transfer is costly and weather-disrupted. The AfDB approved USD 135 million in 2024 to modernise the Moroni and Boingoma ports and to build the SEZ.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Comoros sits at the extreme low-complexity end of the global distribution — so low, and so data-poor, that it is omitted altogether from the published OEC/Harvard Economic Complexity Index country rankings. Its export basket is dominated by three primary or semi-processed agricultural commodities — cloves, ylang-ylang essential oil and vanilla — that together make up about 80% of exports and each carry a revealed comparative advantage well above 1, yet all sit low on product complexity; essential oils themselves carry a negative product-complexity value of about -1.22, ranked 893rd of 1,028 products on OEC.

The Atlas product-space implication is that feasible nearby moves are confined to deeper processing of the crops already grown — vanilla extract and powder, standardised or blended essential oils, natural cosmetics, dried and processed spices, and basic fish processing — rather than a leap into complex manufacturing. The UNCTAD Productive Capacities Index, with its weakest-SIDS, sub-25 placement in 2018, corroborates a thin structural base across energy, ICT, transport and human capital, confirming that diversification adjacencies are narrow and incremental rather than transformational.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Ylang-ylang essential oil (HS 3301.29) is Comoros's single most defensible continental supply claim, because it is the rare category in which the country holds documented global production leadership. Per UNDP's Enhanced Integrated Framework, the tiny volcanic islands produce 60% of the world's supply of ylang-ylang, with output of 30–40 tonnes a year — ahead of Madagascar — concentrated on Anjouan's roughly 350 distilleries (Premium Beauty News). Crucially, the position already operates one step up the beneficiation ladder: Comoros exports steam-distilled oil rather than raw flowers, and an anchor industrial distiller, Biolandes, operating since 2014 with ten stainless-steel stills, provides certified, quality-graded capacity. The mechanism — volcanic terroir and humidity, a century of French colonial distillation know-how embedded across Anjouan, and anchor demand from the global fine-fragrance industry, with Comorian oil used in Chanel No. 5 and Chanel reporting work with its suppliers on firewood replanting and fair wages — is durable on the input and know-how side.

The weak leg is continental demand. The buyer is the global fragrance industry, overwhelmingly in France and Europe, not Africa, where essential-oil import volumes are modest; Comoros's HS 330129 exports were only about USD 2.21 million in 2023 (UN Comtrade), ranking it around 47th globally, so absolute scale is small and price-volatile. The supply side carries its own threats: ageing tree stock with no breeding programme, deforestation from firewood used in distillation, adulteration risk, and single-island concentration on Anjouan. The verdict is a genuine right to supply founded on production leadership, but a niche prize rather than a high-volume continental one.

Current reality

Comoros is a micro-economy with GDP of roughly USD 1.55 billion in 2024 per the World Bank and a population of about 866,600 on the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision. It has essentially no mineral or hydrocarbon base, around 44 MW of mostly diesel generation, and a manufacturing sector below 5 per cent of GDP. Its supply position today is that of a raw and semi-processed agro-niche supplier. Exports are extremely concentrated: cloves account for roughly 65 to 71 per cent of goods exports, at 64.9 per cent in 2023, ylang-ylang and perfume essences around 9 per cent, and vanilla around 4 per cent. Vanilla exports were approximately USD 7.72 million in 2022 on OEC data but collapsed to around USD 0.7 million in 2024 per the Banque Centrale des Comores amid a global vanilla price crash. Essential oil exports under HS 330129 were approximately USD 2.21 million across 16,084 kilogrammes in 2023 per UN Comtrade and WITS, ranking Comoros around 47th globally. Principal destinations are France, Singapore, Turkey, India, the United States and Germany; the intra-African export share is negligible and Comoros is among the five smallest projected AfCFTA exporters.

The physical constraints are immediate. Installed generation capacity was around 44 MW in 2021, of which approximately 37.3 MW is small-scale diesel, about 6 MW solar and around 970 kW hydro; peak demand was 24 MW but only about 56 per cent of installed capacity was usable owing to poor maintenance, and load-shedding reached around 13 per cent of supply on Grande Comore. Electricity costs approximately USD 0.30 per kWh, among the highest in Africa, with industrial tariffs around USD 0.24 to 0.29 per kWh against a cost of service of about USD 0.35 per kWh. A 16 MW solar photovoltaic plant with 9.1 MWh of battery storage has been commissioned on Grande Comore. Mutsamudu on Anjouan is the only deep-water port, built in 1982, with a maximum draught of about 8.5 metres and around 120 vessel calls a year, serving as a transhipment hub for roughly 75 per cent of traffic destined for Moroni and Fomboni; around 90 per cent of cargo moves by sea and the road network of some 850 kilometres in 2024 is poor. No special economic zone is yet operational, though one is planned under an AfDB ports project approved at USD 135 million in 2024.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 8 candidate lines · will change

Comoros’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Comoros’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Comoros will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Comoros’s 8 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 2Emerging 1Aspirational 3Grey 2
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Vanilla extract/powder & natural cosmetics

Existing curing + nascent value-add firms · Maturity: Early finished-goods small lines · Competitiveness: Growing African cosmetics market
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 3.57 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
130211Vegetable saps and extracts; opium
130212Vegetable saps and extracts; of liquorice
130213Vegetable saps and extracts; of hops
130214Vegetable saps and extracts; of ephedra
130219Vegetable saps and extracts; n.e.c. in item no. 1302.1
130220Pectic substances; pectinates and pectates
130231Mucilages and thickeners; agar-agar, whether or not modified, derived from vegetable products
130232Mucilages and thickeners; whether or not modified, derived from locust beans, locust bean seeds or guar seeds
130239Mucilages and thickeners; whether or not modified, derived from vegetable products, n.e.c. in item no. 1302.3
330210Odoriferous substances and mixtures; of a kind used in the food or drink industries
330290Odoriferous substances and mixtures; used as raw materials in industries other than the food or drink industries
330410Cosmetic and toilet preparations; lip make-up
330420Cosmetic and toilet preparations; eye make-up
330430Cosmetic and toilet preparations; manicure or pedicure preparations
330491Cosmetic and toilet preparations; powders, whether or not compressed (excluding lip, eye, manicure or pedicure preparations)
330499Cosmetic and toilet preparations; n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments, including sunscreen or sun tan preparations)
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Comoros imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 807.1 mAlgeria USD 349.4 mEgypt USD 251.3 mMorocco USD 247.2 mNigeria USD 240.5 mLibya USD 220.4 mKenya USD 123.5 mUganda USD 116.2 m

Source: EEAS/EU EPA; Statista/BeautyMatter · 2021/2024

Processed/canned tuna & fishery products

EEZ tuna grounds; processing plant under construction · Maturity: Raw artisanal; processing not operational · Competitiveness: Large African fish import demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince
160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc
160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)
160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604
160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved
160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs
160431Fish preparations; caviar
160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Comoros imported USD 3.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: UNCTAD; AfDB · 2017/2024

Coconut/copra products

Historical copra crop, now marginal · Maturity: Negligible processing · Competitiveness: Modest
GREY
USD 167.4 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
120300Copra
151311Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151319Vegetable oils; coconut (copra) oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modi
151321Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, crude, not chemically modified
151329Vegetable oils; palm kernel or babassu oil and their fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemic

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 41.2 mSouth Africa USD 36.7 mSudan USD 16.2 mKenya USD 15.9 mTunisia USD 13.1 mDjibouti USD 8.9 mMorocco USD 7.1 mAlgeria USD 6.4 m

Source: Historical country studies · n/a

Clove oil / essential-oil derivatives

Domestic clove feedstock; distillation skills · Maturity: Raw cloves only; no oil extraction at scale · Competitiveness: Niche African demand
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 96.5 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
330111Oils of bergamot, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330112Oils, essential; of orange (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330113Oils, essential; of lemon (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330114Oils of lime, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330119Oils, essential; of citrus fruits n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330121Oils of geranium, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330122Oils of jasmin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330123Oils of lavender or of lavandin, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330124Oils, essential; of peppermint (Mentha piperita), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes
330125Oils, essential; of mints (excluding peppermint), terpeneless or not, including concretes and absolutes
330126Oils of vetiver, whether or not terpeneless, incl. concretes and absolutes
330129Oils, essential; n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
330130Resinoids
330190Oils, essential; concentrates in fats, fixed oils, waxes and the like, terpenic by-products, aqueous distillates and solutions, extracted oleoresins, n.e.c. in heading no. 3301
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 24.1 mTanzania USD 13.2 mEgypt USD 9.7 mEswatini USD 8.3 mAlgeria USD 6.5 mNigeria USD 6.3 mKenya USD 2.8 mAngola USD 2.3 m

Source: FAOSTAT · 2023

Construction aggregates / pozzolan

Volcanic rock/ash abundance · Maturity: Raw extraction, domestic use · Competitiveness: Bulky/low-value, intra-regional only
GREY
USD 86.8 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
251710Pebbles, gravel, broken or crushed stone; of a kind commonly used for concrete aggregates, for road metalling or for rai
251720Macadam of slag, dross or similar industrial waste; whether or not incorporating the materials in Tariff item 2517.10.00
251730Tarred macadam
251741Stones; of marble, in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
251749Stones; of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules, chippings and powder, whether or not heat-treated
253010Vermiculite, perlite and chlorites; unexpanded
253020Kieserite, epsomite (natural magnesium sulphates)
253040Natural micaceous iron oxides
253090Mineral substances; n.e.c. in chapter 25

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Senegal USD 15.7 mEgypt USD 14.8 mMorocco USD 9.4 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSouth Africa USD 6.7 mTunisia USD 5.9 mCameroon USD 5.6 mGhana USD 3.1 m

Source: No Tier-1 data · n/a

Vanilla (cured beans)

Historic world #2; volcanic terroir; organic niche · Maturity: Intermediate cured beans; next step extract/powder · Competitiveness: Low African demand; US/EU buyers
EMERGING
USD 22 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090500Vanilla
090510Spices; vanilla, neither crushed nor ground
090520Spices; vanilla, crushed or ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Mauritius USD 17.2 mSouth Africa USD 1.2 mMadagascar USD 0.9 mTunisia USD 0.9 mUganda USD 0.7 mMorocco USD 0.3 mSudan USD 0.2 mNigeria USD 0.2 m

Source: FAOSTAT; OEC; BCC · 2021/2022/2024

Ylang-ylang essential oil

World's leading producer ~60% global supply; distillation know-how · Maturity: Semi-processed distilled oil; next step standardised/certified oil · Competitiveness: Marginal in Africa (Europe is buyer)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 20 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
330129Oils, essential; n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not), including concretes and absolutes
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 7 mKenya USD 2.5 mNigeria USD 2.1 mEgypt USD 2 mMorocco USD 0.9 mTunisia USD 0.9 mEswatini USD 0.7 mAlgeria USD 0.6 m

Source: FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade HS330129 · 2023

Cloves (whole/dried)

4th-largest global producer 7,663 t; ~65% of exports · Maturity: Raw/dried; next step clove oil/ground · Competitiveness: Minor African import share (~4.5% world)
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 18.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090700Cloves, whole fruit, cloves and stems
090710Spices; cloves (whole fruit, cloves and stems), neither crushed nor ground
090720Spices; cloves (whole fruit, cloves and stems), crushed or ground
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Comoros imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 3.6 mSudan USD 2.8 mSouth Africa USD 2.5 mMorocco USD 1.5 mGhana USD 1.5 mSomalia USD 1.3 mAlgeria USD 1.3 mLibya USD 1.1 m

Source: FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade · 2023/2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Comoros is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Comoros buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Comoros is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 0.27 bn

Comoros’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

8

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierComoros imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Processed/canned tuna & fishery productsASPIRATIONALUSD 3.1 mUSD 850.3 m
Vanilla extract/powder & natural cosmeticsASPIRATIONALUSD 0.1 mUSD 3.57 bn
Coconut/copra productsGREYUSD 0 mUSD 167.4 m
Clove oil / essential-oil derivativesASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 96.5 m
Construction aggregates / pozzolanGREYUSD 0 mUSD 86.8 m
Vanilla (cured beans)EMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 22 m
Ylang-ylang essential oilSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 20 m
Cloves (whole/dried)STRONG CONTENDERUSD 0 mUSD 18.7 m

Left-hand column: what Comoros itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Comoros’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 8 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Comoros’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Comoros. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Comoros’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Comoros’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01South AfricaUSD 985.3 m
02AlgeriaUSD 446.4 m
03LibyaUSD 435.9 m
04EgyptUSD 408.9 m
05MoroccoUSD 310.6 m
06NigeriaUSD 249.1 m
07KenyaUSD 144.7 m
08UgandaUSD 116.9 m
09GhanaUSD 65 m
10SomaliaUSD 32.7 m
11GabonUSD 32.1 m
12TunisiaUSD 20.8 m
13SudanUSD 19.2 m
14MauritiusUSD 17.2 m
15SenegalUSD 15.7 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Comoros. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Comoros would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Comoros to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable, cheaper power

A solar-plus-storage backbone delivering stable industrial supply well below USD 0.30/kWh — enough to run distilleries, cold chain and processing without diesel.

02

Quality and certification infrastructure

Accredited testing labs, GI/IGP labelling, anti-adulteration controls and organic/fair-trade certification to defend the price premia on ylang-ylang and vanilla.

03

Feedstock renewal

A ylang-ylang replanting and breeding programme, together with sustainable distillation fuel, to arrest tree-stock ageing and the deforestation driven by firewood for distillation.

04

Beneficiation investment

A move from crude oil and cured beans to standardised or fractionated oils, vanilla extract and powder, and natural cosmetics, and bringing the tuna-processing plant into operation.

05

Logistics and SEZ delivery

Completion of the AfDB ports and SEZ project to lower export friction and enable regional value chains.

06

Demand reorientation

If the continental criterion is to bind, developing African cosmetics, fragrance and food-flavour buyers — a roughly USD 8.62 billion African fragrance market in 2024, growing at 5.11% CAGR to 2028 — rather than relying solely on Europe.

The binding constraints
·

Power is a hard ceiling Capacity of about 44 MW is mostly diesel and only around 56% usable, tariffs are among Africa's highest and outages are chronic, which caps any processing scale-up before it begins.

·

Logistics and micro-scale A single deep-water port, heavy transhipment dependence and costly, weather-disrupted inter-island transfer compound cyclone exposure — Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 caused damage equivalent to 14% of GDP and affected over 40% of the population (World Bank) — against a micro-economy scale that is small relative to continental demand.

·

Capital and FDI are thin Financial intermediation is shallow, credit risk high and processing FDI minimal; Comoros remains at high risk of debt distress under the January 2026 IMF–World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis, with public debt at 25.2% of GDP in 2025 (World Bank).

·

Skills gap beyond the craft There is no university of scale and TVET is thin; the tacit distillation and curing skills are not matched by industrial or quality-systems capacity.

·

Feedstock and single-buyer dependency Ageing ylang-ylang stock, deforestation and adulteration threaten supply, while demand is concentrated on a handful of European buyers amid extreme commodity-price volatility, with clove and vanilla swings of 40–60% year on year.

·

Governance and data weakness Statistical capacity is weak, reporting gaps are material and state-owned enterprises dominate, complicating both planning and investor due diligence.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Comoros’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power is a hard ceiling, not a soft constraint. Around 44 MW of mostly diesel capacity with only about 56 per cent usable, tariffs among Africa's highest at roughly USD 0.30 per kWh and chronic outages place a hard ceiling on any processing scale-up. A solar and storage backbone delivering stable industrial supply well below USD 0.30 per kWh would have to be built before distilleries, cold chain and processing could run without diesel.

05

Logistics and scale are structurally weak. There is one deep-water port, heavy transhipment dependence, costly inter-island transfer and severe weather exposure — Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 caused damage equivalent to 14 per cent of GDP and affected over 40 per cent of the population. Micro-economy scale relative to continental demand is itself a limiting factor.

06

Capital is thin and the debt position is fragile. Financial intermediation is thin, credit risk is high and processing FDI is minimal, confined largely to Biolandes in ylang-ylang and the Qatar and Sri Lanka tuna venture. Comoros remains at high risk of debt distress under the January 2026 IMF and World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis, with public debt at 25.2 per cent of GDP in 2025.

07

Skills exist as craft, not as industrial systems. There is no university of scale and technical and vocational training is thin. Tacit distillation and curing skills are not matched by industrial or quality-systems capacity, and accredited testing laboratories, geographical-indication labelling, anti-adulteration controls and organic and fair-trade certification would all have to be established to defend price premia.

08

Feedstock and buyer concentration threaten the trump card itself. Ageing ylang-ylang tree stock with no breeding programme, deforestation caused by firewood for distillation, adulteration risk and single-island concentration all bear directly on the strongest claim. Buyer concentration on a handful of European purchasers compounds this, alongside clove and vanilla price swings of 40 to 60 per cent year on year.

09

Continental demand is the weakest leg of the case. The fragrance industry buyer base is overwhelmingly France and Europe rather than Africa, and African essential-oil import volumes are modest. If a continental criterion is to bind, African cosmetics, fragrance and food-flavour buyers would have to be developed against an African fragrance market of around USD 8.62 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual rate of 5.11 per cent to 2028.

10

The data base is itself unreliable. Statistical capacity is weak, there are reporting gaps and state-owned enterprises dominate. Headline export totals diverge widely across sources, with UN Comtrade goods at around USD 34 million against national estimates near USD 125 million, so all single-year monetary figures are indicative rather than firm and are best read as multi-year ranges.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

The Draft 1 bundle for Comoros rests on a single strong position — ylang-ylang essential oil, held on documented global production leadership, volcanic terroir, a century of embedded distillation know-how and one anchor industrial distiller — with cloves as a second strong but demand-mismatched position and vanilla as an emerging one currently in deep price crisis. Everything else in the basket is aspirational or grey: clove-oil derivatives with no extraction at scale, tuna processing not yet operational, and aggregates and copra without Tier-1 evidence. What must be proven is fourfold: reliable industrial power well below USD 0.30 per kWh to replace diesel; quality, certification and anti-adulteration infrastructure to defend the price premium; feedstock renewal through a replanting and breeding programme and sustainable distillation fuel to arrest stock ageing and deforestation; and delivery of the AfDB ports and special economic zone project to lower export friction. Above these sits the demand question — whether African cosmetics, fragrance and food-flavour buyers can be developed such that a continental criterion binds at all, rather than the trade continuing to run to France and Europe as it does today.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Comoros is shown 8 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Comoros to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2