Draft 1 · for discussion only · this will not be the final allocation  ·  all 54 draft bundles →
CameroonBuy African Initiative · Right of Supply
Draft 1 · for discussion
AU STC-FMAEPI
Draft 1 · this will not be the final allocation

The USD 620 bn Africa sends abroad

Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of it is sourced from outside the continent, against about USD 89 bn traded within Africa. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement. This document proposes a first, correctable product bundle for Cameroon — and states plainly what it does not yet know.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports, 2023
USD 620 bn
Sourced off-continent — the prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured government procurement
≈USD 89 bn
Intra-African trade today (~12.5%)
17
Draft 1 candidate lines for Cameroon
The Minister’s brief · for Louis Paul Motazé · Cameroon
Minister Motazé, Cameroon does not merely grow cocoa; it grinds it. The world's fifth-largest bean crop, 320,000 tonnes, is now matched by real processing muscle — a record 109,431 tonnes ground in 2024/25 across five industrial grinders, one of them a Barry Callebaut plant, and an export standing of seventh globally in cocoa paste and ninth in cocoa butter. This is the rare endowment where the raw wealth and the capacity to refine it sit in the same Cameroonian hands. Africa's own chocolate and confectionery market — 9.6 million tonnes, USD 48.2 billion in 2024 — is largely imported, with South Africa and Egypt the leading buyers: a substitution prize AfCFTA explicitly targets. That is Cameroon's claim. The Right of Supply grants you a 25-year first right to serve it, disciplined by Match-or-Release: never a subsidy, never a captive contract, only a standing invitation to compete. This is Draft 1, deliberately provisional. Your correction, Minister, is the next move.
Right of Supply · Draft 1 · for the Minister of Finance, Cameroon
01 · Correspondence
From the Chair · to Louis Paul Motazé, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Cameroon · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Motazé,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Cameroon — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Cameroon is in this room

Cameroon's strongest endowment is semi-finished cocoa: the world's roughly fifth-largest bean crop at 320,000 tonnes, matched by real and expanding processing capacity that ground a record 109,431 tonnes in 2024/25, up sharply on the previous season, across five industrial grinders, and by an established export position of 7th globally in cocoa liquor and paste and 9th in cocoa butter in 2024. This is the rare case where Cameroon holds both a world-class raw endowment and real, expanding processing capacity in the same category. The honest constraint is power: notwithstanding the 420 MW Nachtigal plant reaching full output in March 2025, 83.6% of business leaders identify power disruption as the top weakness in the business environment, the national utility was renationalised in November 2025 amid a sector cash crisis, and the Logistics Performance Index has fallen to 2.1. Grinding is energy-intensive; the cocoa position is defensible only if reliable, competitively priced power is secured alongside it.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Cameroon, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI
02 · Executive summary
The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Cameroon

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports
620USD bn sourced off-continent
136.75USD bn measured procurement
17draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Cameroon’s draft bundle. 17 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Cement & clinker-substitute, Sawn wood & veneer, Cocoa paste & butter. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 4 strong contender · 6 emerging · 7 aspirational.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Cameroon is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance
What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

  • USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
  • USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
  • USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
  • USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 17 candidate lines proposed for Cameroon below.

  • Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
  • Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
  • The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
  • No claim value is stated for Cameroon. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Cameroon will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Cameroon will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize
709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn
Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources
The market
USD 620 bn
From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize
The prize
USD 136.75 bn
Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included
Band A
≈USD 207 bn total
Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated
Band B
17 lines
Cameroon’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2
Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Cameroon at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead
Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor
USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT
Band B · estimated tender layer
≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65
Strategic agriculture & food27.03
Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02
Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53
Infrastructure & transport6.60
Currency, governance & elections5.54
Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic
Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness
Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline
Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Cameroon’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin
Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana
Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline
What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Cameroon’s own capability audit.

Cocoa beans in raw form

Cameroon holds an RCA of 243 in beans and produces some 320,000 tonnes, but the audit records continental demand as high while noting that the framework rewards processing. The defensible position sits one step downstream, in paste and butter, where grinding capacity and export rank are already established.

Raw base · industrial screen

Aluminium ingots and sheet

ALUCAM at Edea, Africa's first aluminium smelter from 1957, smelts imported alumina and not domestic bauxite. It has run at roughly 60% of capacity in recent periods, posted a record loss of 23.8 billion XOF in 2024 and returned to a thin profit in 2025 only on one-off accounting gains, with the Chamber of Accounts calling for an urgent 43 billion FCFA recapitalisation.

Capability inversion

Bauxite and alumina

Minim-Martap is a project, not production. First shipment was targeted for the second or third quarter of 2026, financed via a US$140 million AFG Bank facility, with planned output of about 6.4 million tonnes a year of direct shipping ore over 20 years. No domestic alumina refining is planned at scale and the ore is to be exported raw.

Raw base · industrial screen

Iron ore and concentrate

Mbalam-Nabeba is world-class on grade at about 62.6% iron, but construction was only launched in December 2023 and financing remains uncertain. The project requires a rail line of roughly 510 kilometres to Kribi that has yet to be built.

Pre-production

Refined petroleum products

SONARA at Limbe, the country's only refinery with a nameplate of 2.1 million tonnes a year or about 42,000 barrels per day, has been offline since the fire of May and June 2019. The PARRAS 24 rehabilitation plan was adopted on 13 August 2025 targeting a phased restart before the end of 2027; Cameroon and its neighbours currently import refined product.

Incumbency

Refined gold

Gold output is largely artisanal. SONAMINES collected 640 kilogrammes in 2024 under a new state-monopoly purchasing regime, and there is no LBMA-standard refining in the country.

Raw base · industrial screen
08 · Endowment
What Cameroon actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Cameroon. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Cameroon is the anchor economy and transit gateway of the CEMAC bloc: a roughly US$56 billion economy of some 29 million people, whose defining endowments are a hydro-rich power system, a top-five global cocoa crop with rapidly growing domestic grinding, a deepwater port at Kribi serving landlocked Chad and the Central African Republic, and a large but mostly raw-exported mineral and energy base. The mineral endowment is genuinely world-class on paper. Canyon Resources' 2025 definitive feasibility study for Minim-Martap in Adamawa reports a JORC Mineral Resource of 1,102 million tonnes at 45.3% alumina and an Ore Reserve of 144 million tonnes at 51.2%. The binational Mbalam-Nabeba hematite deposit, shared with Congo, grades about 62.6% iron with a Phase 1 design of 35 to 40 million tonnes a year. Nkamouna in the East holds proven and probable reserves of 68.1 million tonnes grading 0.26% cobalt, 0.66% nickel and 1.48% manganese, one of the largest non-DRC cobalt resources. Each of these is a resource statement rather than a production line.

The agricultural and processing base is where capability is real rather than prospective. Cameroon is the world's roughly fifth-largest cocoa bean producer, with the ICCO recording 320,000 tonnes in 2023/24 and forecast for 2024/25, about 7% of world output. National marketed output crossed 300,000 tonnes for the first time at 309,518 tonnes in 2024/25, with approximately 35% processed domestically. Grinding reached a record 109,431 tonnes in 2024/25, up sharply on the prior season, across five large grinders including SIC Cacaos (Barry Callebaut), which invested CFA5 billion raising its Douala plant from 32,000 to 50,000 tonnes, alongside Atlantic Cocoa, Neo Industry, Africa Processing and Chococam. Cement is the other genuine manufacturing success: after Dangote ended CIMENCAM's monopoly in 2015, national capacity reached some 12.7 to 12.8 million tonnes a year by end-2025 against domestic demand of 6.8 to 8 million tonnes, a structural surplus enabling exports. Timber, cotton at around 350,100 tonnes forecast for 2025, bananas, rubber at 93.6% of CEMAC output, and a forest estate of 20.3 million hectares complete the primary base.

On economic complexity, the audit is candid: Cameroon is a low-complexity, commodity-dependent economy in long-term decline, falling from roughly 95th to 119th on the OEC Economic Complexity Index over two decades. Revealed comparative advantage above 1 is concentrated in cocoa beans (RCA 243), cocoa paste (95.7), cocoa butter (58.4), veneer sheets (48.1) and sawn wood (44). Strikingly, the cocoa-derivative RCAs confirm real revealed advantage in processed cocoa, not merely beans. The Atlas and OEC flag feasible diversification by relatedness into aluminium ore, nuts, manganese ore, bran and palm oil, that is, adjacent agro-processing and ore handling rather than a leap to complex manufacturing. Realistic near-term gains lie in deepening agro-industrial chains.

The endowment in depth

Minerals and metals. Cameroon is mineral-rich but barely industrially mined — mining, quarrying and hydrocarbons combined were only about 3.9% of GDP in 2021 (USGS). The Minim-Martap bauxite deposit in Adamawa is genuinely world-class: Canyon Resources' 2025 DFS reports a JORC Mineral Resource of 1,102 Mt at 45.3% Al2O3 and an Ore Reserve of 144 Mt at 51.2% Al2O3, with a first shipment targeted for Q2-Q3 2026, financed via a US$140M AFG Bank facility, and planned output of about 6.4 Mt/yr DSO over 20 years — but it is a project, not production, and the ore is to be exported raw with no domestic alumina refining planned at scale. The binational Mbalam-Nabeba iron ore deposit (shared with Congo, about 62.6% Fe) is designed for roughly 35-40 Mt/yr Phase 1 DSO but requires a about 510 km rail line to Kribi and remains financing-uncertain despite construction being "launched" in December 2023. The Nkamouna/Lomié cobalt-nickel-manganese deposit holds proven and probable reserves of 68.1 Mt grading 0.26% Co, 0.66% Ni and 1.48% Mn — one of the largest non-DRC cobalt resources — yet has never reached production since its 2003 permit. Africa's first aluminium smelter, ALUCAM at Edéa (1957), critically smelts imported alumina rather than domestic bauxite, using cheap Sanaga hydropower; it has run at roughly 60% of capacity, posted a record loss of 23.8 billion XOF in 2024, and the Chamber of Accounts called for an urgent 43 billion FCFA recapitalisation.

Energy. Crude output was about 19.8 million barrels in 2025 on ageing, declining fields. The only refinery, SONARA at Limbé (nameplate 2.1 Mt/yr, about 42,000 bpd), has been offline since the May/June 2019 fire; the PARRAS 24 rehabilitation plan adopted 13 August 2025 targets a phased restart before the end of 2027, so Cameroon and its neighbours currently import refined product. Gas production of about 2.18 bcm in 2025 feeds the floating Hilli Episeyo LNG unit off Kribi (2.4 Mt/yr nameplate, about 1.4 Mt/yr utilised), which made Cameroon the world's 20th LNG exporter in 2018 — but the Hilli charter ends mid-2026, Golar has signed the vessel to Argentina and will not extend, and LNG export revenue already fell to about US$625M in 2025. Power is hydro-dominated: the 420 MW Nachtigal plant reached full power in March 2025, lifting national capacity by about 30%, alongside Songloulou, Edéa, the Lom Pangar regulating dam (about +120 MW downstream), Memve'ele, thermal at Kribi (216 MW gas) and Dibamba (88 MW), and about 250 MW of planned solar. Reliability nonetheless remains poor — 83.6% of business leaders cited power shortages as the top business-environment weakness (GECAM, November 2025), ENEO was renationalised (state about 95%) in November 2025 amid a sector cash crisis, and electricity access stands at about 71% nationally with about 75% of the rural population unconnected.

Agriculture, forestry and the industrial base. Cocoa is the anchor: the world's about 5th-largest bean crop at 320,000 t (ICCO 2024/25), about 7% of world output, with national marketed output crossing 300,000 t for the first time (309,518 t in 2024/25) and about 35% processed domestically. Cotton output is forecast at about 350,100 t in 2025 (Sodecoton targets 400,000 t) but about 95% is sold raw, with only about 5% processed by CICAM. Cameroon was a top-5 historic banana exporter (CDC, PHP, CDBM, Boh), supplied 93.6% of CEMAC rubber output in 2025, and is a major tropical hardwood exporter (ayous, sapelli, azobé, moabi) from a forest area of about 20.3 Mha (43% of land), with timber export value rising to about US$678M in 2024. On the manufacturing side, value added was 13.91% of GDP in 2024 against an SND30 target of 25% by 2030, and UNIDO's CIP placed Cameroon 117th on 2016 data. The standout manufacturing success is cement: after Dangote ended CIMENCAM's monopoly in 2015, national capacity reached about 12.7-12.8 Mt/yr by end-2025 against domestic demand of about 6.8-8 Mt — a structural surplus enabling exports — across CIMENCAM (Holcim), Dangote, CIMAF, Medcem, Mira, Cimpor (Kribi) and EGIN.

Human capital and logistics. Labour force participation is 65.2% of those aged 15+ (2024), the population of about 29 million is young and growing, and a distinctive asset is the bilingual French/English workforce that can serve both Francophone and Anglophone African markets; but TVET and engineering capacity (ENSP, IUT) is thin relative to industrial ambition, and the Anglophone crisis has displaced over a million people and disrupted skills and logistics in the Northwest and Southwest. The infrastructure spine is the Kribi deepwater port — Cameroon's only deepwater port (16 m draft), able to take the largest container vessels, with capacity above 1 million TEU after the Phase II 715 m terminal opened in May 2025 and MSC adding it to its intermodal network in 2026. Douala port handles about 95% of Cameroon's traditional sea cargo and about 79% of Chad's imports, and the Douala/Kribi-N'Djamena and Douala-Bangui corridors make Cameroon the deliverability gateway to two landlocked states (the AfDB approved US$380M for Douala-N'Djamena corridor upgrades in December 2024). The binding weaknesses are rail — Camrail is limited, and the Kribi-Mbalam mining railway and Edéa-Kribi link remain to be built — and logistics performance, with the World Bank LPI falling to 2.1 in 2022 from 2.6 in 2018 and Cameroon ranked at the bottom for timeliness.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Cameroon is a low-complexity, commodity-dependent economy in long-term decline on complexity: it fell from about 95th to 119th on the OEC Economic Complexity Index over two decades (ECI Trade −1.2, rank 119 of 132; OEC 2023), a fall the World Bank corroborates as a drop from 94th to 120th. Revealed comparative advantage above 1 is narrowly concentrated in cocoa beans (RCA 243), cocoa paste (95.7), cocoa butter (58.4), veneer sheets (48.1) and sawn wood (44) — and, strikingly, the cocoa-derivatives RCAs confirm genuine revealed advantage in processed cocoa, not merely in beans.

The Atlas/OEC flags feasible diversification "by relatedness" into aluminium ore, coconuts/Brazil-nuts/cashews, manganese ore, bran and palm oil — that is, mostly adjacent agro-processing and ore handling rather than complex manufacturing. The realistic near-term complexity gains therefore lie in deepening agro-industrial chains (cocoa, wood) rather than leaping to machinery.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

Cameroon's single most defensible continental supply position is semi-finished cocoa products — cocoa paste/liquor (HS 1803) and cocoa butter (HS 1804) — the rare category where it scores yes on every test in the analytical lens. Its input base is world-class: the world's about 5th-largest cocoa bean crop at 320,000 t (ICCO 2024/25) with overwhelming revealed comparative advantage (RCA 243 in beans). Unlike most of its raw endowments, Cameroon has built real and expanding grinding capacity — a record 109,431 t ground in 2024/25, up 27.7% on the prior season's 89,672 t, across five industrial grinders including a Barry Callebaut subsidiary (SIC Cacaos, which invested CFA5bn to raise its Douala plant from 32,000 to 50,000 t), plus Atlantic Cocoa, Neo Industry, Africa Processing and Chococam, taking about 35% of traceable supply. This is established export performance, not aspiration: Cameroon ranked 7th globally in cocoa liquor/paste exports (€275.6M) and 9th in cocoa butter (€206.3M) in 2024, with RCAs of 95.7 and 58.4. Processed cocoa is high-value, non-perishable and ships easily from Douala and Kribi, and the mechanism of advantage is durable — agro-climatic endowment plus a deep smallholder base plus a decade of grinder investment driven by EU deforestation rules and local-processing incentives — set against a continental demand backdrop in which Africa's chocolate and confectionery market reached 9.6 million tons valued at $48.2 billion in 2024, with South Africa and Egypt the leading importers.

The honest limits are competition, cost and feedstock. Cameroon's grinding, while genuine, is dwarfed by Côte d'Ivoire, which ground 764,000 t in 2024/25 against about 712,000 t/yr installed capacity and, per USDA FAS, "already processes 42 percent of its cocoa beans domestically" with a "100 percent local processing by 2030" ambition. Unreliable and expensive power raises grinding costs directly; feedstock competition can push up bean prices; and the EUDR-driven traceability burden could divert beans away from local grinders. Behind cocoa sit two runners-up rather than equals: cement and clinker-substitute cement (HS 2523), a genuine about 12.7 Mt capacity surplus against about 7 Mt demand that is deliverable to Chad, CAR and the wider CEMAC in a category Africa imports heavily; and sawn wood and veneer (HS 4407/4408), a strong hardwood base now being pushed up the value chain by the CEMAC log-export ban.

Current reality

Manufacturing value added stood at 13.91% of GDP in 2024, against an SND30 target of 25% by 2030, a wide gap. UNIDO's Competitive Industrial Performance index placed Cameroon 117th on 2016 data, in the bottom quintile globally, and a more recent Cameroon-specific value was not retrievable. Mining, quarrying and hydrocarbons combined were about 3.9% of GDP in 2021. Total exports were approximately US$6.76 billion in 2023, led by crude petroleum (US$2.43 billion), petroleum gas and LNG (US$1.12 billion), gold (US$951 million), cocoa beans (US$719 million) and sawn wood (US$488 million), with principal destinations extra-African: the Netherlands, France, the UAE, India and China together took more than 70% in 2023. Recorded intra-African and CEMAC trade is officially minimal, though substantial informal re-export and corridor trade goes unrecorded.

Power and logistics define the present operating envelope. The 420 MW Nachtigal plant reached full power in March 2025, lifting national capacity by around 30%, yet 83.6% of business leaders cited power shortages as the top business-environment weakness in November 2025, and ENEO was renationalised to roughly 95% state ownership that same month amid a sector cash crisis. Electricity access is about 71% nationally, with around 75% of the rural population unconnected. The World Bank Logistics Performance Index fell to 2.1 in 2022 from 2.6 in 2018, with Cameroon ranked at the bottom for timeliness. Against that, Kribi is Cameroon's only deepwater port at 16 metres draft, with container capacity above one million TEU after the Phase II 715-metre terminal opened in May 2025, and around 79% of Chad's imports transit Cameroon. Sonara, the country's only refinery, has been offline since the fire of May and June 2019.

09 · The draft bundle
Draft 1 · 17 candidate lines · will change

Cameroon’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Cameroon’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Cameroon will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Cameroon’s 17 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 4Emerging 6Aspirational 7
CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined petroleum products

SONARA offline since 2019, restart targeted 2027 · Maturity: None currently · Competitiveness: Very high; regional fuel deficit
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)
271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....
271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.
271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c
271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara
271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Cameroon imported USD 1.86 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: SONARA/Guardian Post · 2025

LNG / petroleum gas

Hilli Episeyo FLNG, 20th LNG exporter · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: High
EMERGING
USD 10.27 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
271111Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, natural gas
271112Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, propane
271113Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, butanes
271114Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, ethylene, propylene, butylene and butadiene
271119Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; liquefied, n.e.c. in heading no. 2711
271121Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, natural gas
271129Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons; in gaseous state, other than natural gas
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 13 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.
Procuring agency (indicative): State utilities · Energy Security · control: controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Cameroon imported USD 74.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 3.38 bnMorocco USD 2.36 bnTunisia USD 1.66 bnSouth Africa USD 779.1 mCote dIvoire USD 413.8 mKenya USD 240.9 mTanzania USD 205.1 mGhana USD 181.6 m

Source: GEM; IGU · 2024-2025

Gold refined

Artisanal, 640kg state-collected · Maturity: Raw, no LBMA refining · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder
710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)
710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured
710820Gold, monetary
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: Energy Capital Power · 2024

Cement & clinker-substitute

~12.7Mt capacity vs ~7Mt demand, surplus · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Very high; AfCFTA prioritises local
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
252310Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)
252321Cement; portland, white, whether or not artificially coloured
252329Cement; portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured
252330Cement; aluminous (ciment fondu), whether or not coloured or in the form of clinkers
252390Cement; hydraulic kinds n.e.c. in heading no. 2523
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 30 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 144.9 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Ghana USD 318.1 mMali USD 302.7 mCote dIvoire USD 273 mBurkina Faso USD 205.1 mLibya USD 166.4 mCameroon your own imports USD 144.9 mUganda USD 140.3 mMadagascar USD 78.9 m

Cameroon is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: CemNet · 2024-2025

Iron ore / concentrate

World-class Mbalam-Nabeba · Maturity: Pre-production, financing unsecured · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated
260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)
260120Iron pyrites; roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS; Business in Cameroon · 2023

Sawn wood & veneer

Major hardwood base, RCA 44/48.1, log ban forcing processing · Maturity: Intermediate to finished · Competitiveness: Moderate-high
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 2.05 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...
440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san
440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length
440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))
440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le
440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise
440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or
440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm
440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...
440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe
440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or
440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm
440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm
440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed
440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407
440810Wood; coniferous, sheets for veneering (including those obtained by slicing laminated wood), for plywood or similar laminated wood and other wood, sawn lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed or not, sanded, spliced or end-jointed, not over 6 mm thick
440831Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, dark red meranti, light red meranti, meranti bakau, sheets for veneer, plywood or other wood, sawn lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed or not, sanded or end-jointed, not thicker than 6mm
440839Wood, of tropical wood; as in Subheading note 2 to this Chapter, n.e.c. in heading no. 4408.31, sheets for veneer or plywood, other wood sawn length wise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or end-jointed, not thicker than 6mm
440890Wood; n.e.c. in heading no. 4408, sheets for veneer or plywood, other wood sawn lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or end-jointed, not exceeding 6mm in thickness
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Cameroon imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 766.1 mMorocco USD 327.3 mAlgeria USD 313.2 mNigeria USD 156.7 mSouth Africa USD 125 mLibya USD 47.2 mSomalia USD 44.5 mKenya USD 41.8 m

Source: OEC; Business in Cameroon · 2023-2025

Cotton textiles/apparel

CICAM, SND30 textile pillar · Maturity: Thin · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 1.67 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520811Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520812Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not
520813Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twil
520819Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.1, weighing no
520821Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520822Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not mo
520823Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill,
520829Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, bleached, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.2, weighing not
520831Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520832Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more t
520833Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill, wei
520839Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, dyed, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.3 weighing not more
520841Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520842Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more than 200g/m2
520843Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill, weighing not more than 200g/m2
520849Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.4, weighing not more than 200g/m2
520851Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2
520852Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not more than 200g/m2
520853Woven fabrics of cotton, containing >= 85% cotton by weight and weighing <= 200 g/m², in three-thread...
520859Fabrics, woven; containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, of weaves n.e.c. in item no. 5208.5, weighing not more than 200g/m2
610910T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of cotton, knitted or crocheted
610990T-shirts, singlets and other vests; of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crocheted
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Cameroon imported USD 3.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 304.5 mSouth Africa USD 277.8 mTunisia USD 157.6 mGhana USD 113.5 mGuinea USD 82.7 mAlgeria USD 59.3 mTogo USD 51.8 mEgypt USD 51.2 m

Source: cameroontradehub · 2024

Aluminium ingots & sheet

ALUCAM smelter + hydropower, Socatral sheet · Maturity: Intermediate/finished from imported alumina · Competitiveness: High; Africa imports aluminium
EMERGING
USD 1.6 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
760110Aluminium; unwrought, (not alloyed)
760120Aluminium; unwrought, alloys
760611Aluminium; plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm, (not alloyed), rectangular (including square)
760612Aluminium; plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm, alloys, rectangular (including square)
760691Aluminium; plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm, not alloyed, (not rectangular or square)
760692Aluminium; plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm, alloys, (not rectangular or square)
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Cameroon imported USD 11.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Morocco USD 524.9 mSouth Africa USD 268.5 mEgypt USD 188.5 mNigeria USD 148.3 mTunisia USD 118.7 mAlgeria USD 114.9 mTanzania USD 28.3 mEthiopia USD 27 m

Source: USGS; allAfrica · 2014-2025

Coffee

Established grower · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 1.13 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
090111Coffee; not roasted or decaffeinated
090112Coffee; decaffeinated, not roasted
090121Coffee; roasted, not decaffeinated
090122Coffee; roasted, decaffeinated
090190Coffee; husks and skins, coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0.4 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 322.4 mEgypt USD 217.4 mSudan USD 151.5 mMorocco USD 148 mSouth Africa USD 99.8 mLibya USD 77.7 mTunisia USD 34.5 mNamibia USD 9.7 m

Source: INS Cameroon · 2025

Bauxite / alumina

World-class Minim-Martap 1102Mt resource · Maturity: Pre-production, first shipment 2026 · Competitiveness: High
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 908 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
260600Aluminium ores and concentrates
281810Aluminium oxide; artificial corundum
281820Aluminium oxide; other than artificial corundum
281830Aluminium hydroxide
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 59.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 529.7 mEgypt USD 181 mMozambique USD 62.1 mCameroon your own imports USD 59.1 mGhana USD 34.4 mTunisia USD 10.7 mMorocco USD 8.4 mNigeria USD 6.3 m

Cameroon is itself among the leading continental importers of this category. That is the balance argument in one line: this is demand the state already pays for off-continent.

Source: Canyon DFS · 2025

Chocolate / confectionery

One processor makes bars · Maturity: Nascent finished · Competitiveness: Very high consumer
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 706.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
180610Cocoa; powder, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
180620Chocolate & other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars weighing more than 2kg or in liquid, past
180631Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, filled, weighing 2kg or less
180632Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less
180690Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; n.e.c. in chapter 18
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 2.8 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Libya USD 147.8 mSouth Africa USD 126.1 mMorocco USD 101.3 mEgypt USD 54.2 mNigeria USD 37.5 mMauritius USD 29.9 mNamibia USD 15.8 mAngola USD 14.6 m

Source: Food Business MEA · 2025

Cotton lint

~350,000t Sodecoton · Maturity: Raw, 95% unprocessed · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
520100Cotton; not carded or combed
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: BEAC/Ecofin · 2025

Bananas

Top-5 historic exporter, CDC/PHP · Maturity: Raw fresh · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 297.6 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
080300Bananas, incl. plantains, fresh or dried
080310Fruit, edible; plantains, fresh or dried
080390Fruit, edible; bananas, other than plantains, fresh or dried
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Algeria USD 134.9 mLibya USD 52 mSouth Africa USD 43 mMorocco USD 13.9 mSenegal USD 10.8 mTunisia USD 9.2 mBotswana USD 9.1 mSomalia USD 5 m

Source: Assobacam/Business in Cameroon · 2024

Natural rubber

93.6% of CEMAC output · Maturity: Raw/intermediate · Competitiveness: Moderate
EMERGING
USD 163.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
400110Rubber; natural rubber latex, whether or not pre-vulcanised, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip
400121Rubber; natural (excluding latex), in smoked sheets
400122Rubber; technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (excluding latex and
400129Rubber; natural (excluding latex, technically specified natural rubber and smoked sheets), in primary forms or in plates
400130Balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums; in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
South Africa USD 67.7 mEgypt USD 47.3 mLiberia USD 13.4 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mTunisia USD 5.9 mUganda USD 5 mNigeria USD 4.3 mEthiopia USD 3.3 m

Source: Cameroon-eco-business · 2025

Cocoa paste & butter

Top-5 bean crop + 5 grinders, RCA 95.7/58.4, 7th/9th global exporter · Maturity: Intermediate semi-finished, rising · Competitiveness: High; Africa chocolate market 9.6Mt/$48.2B import-reliant
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 118.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
180310Cocoa; paste, not defatted
180320Cocoa; paste, wholly or partly defatted
180400Cocoa; butter, fat and oil
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Egypt USD 38.6 mSouth Africa USD 37.2 mAlgeria USD 29 mMorocco USD 10.1 mTunisia USD 0.8 mKenya USD 0.6 mSudan USD 0.4 mLibya USD 0.4 m

Source: ICCO; OEC; Business in Cameroon (ITC) · 2023-2025

Cocoa beans

World ~5th producer 320,000t, RCA 243 · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: High
STRONG CONTENDER
USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted
Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: ICCO Bulletin; OEC · 2023-2025

Cobalt/nickel intermediates

Nkamouna 68.1Mt reserve · Maturity: Undeveloped since 2003 · Competitiveness: High; batteries
ASPIRATIONAL
USD 26.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim
750210Nickel; unwrought, not alloyed
750220Nickel; unwrought, alloys
810520Cobalt; mattes and other intermediate products of cobalt metallurgy, unwrought cobalt, powders
810530Cobalt; waste and scrap
810590Cobalt; articles n.e.c. in heading no. 8105
Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding
Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Cameroon imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023
Tunisia USD 14.2 mEgypt USD 6.1 mMorocco USD 2 mSouth Africa USD 1.8 mAlgeria USD 0.7 mZambia USD 0.6 mGabon USD 0.2 mNigeria USD 0.1 m

Source: Mining-Technology; US ITA · 2025

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Cameroon is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance
What Cameroon buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Cameroon is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 8.23 bn

Cameroon’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

17

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

0

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product lineStrength tierCameroon imports, 2023Continental demand, 2023
Refined petroleum productsASPIRATIONALUSD 1.86 bnUSD 110.54 bn
Cement & clinker-substituteSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 144.9 mUSD 2.9 bn
LNG / petroleum gasEMERGINGUSD 74.9 mUSD 10.27 bn
Bauxite / aluminaASPIRATIONALUSD 59.1 mUSD 908 m
Aluminium ingots & sheetEMERGINGUSD 11.8 mUSD 1.6 bn
Cotton textiles/apparelASPIRATIONALUSD 3.8 mUSD 1.67 bn
Chocolate / confectioneryASPIRATIONALUSD 2.8 mUSD 706.2 m
CoffeeEMERGINGUSD 0.4 mUSD 1.13 bn
Sawn wood & veneerSTRONG CONTENDERUSD 0.2 mUSD 2.05 bn
Cobalt/nickel intermediatesASPIRATIONALUSD 0.1 mUSD 26.3 m
Gold refinedASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 2.99 bn
Iron ore / concentrateASPIRATIONALUSD 0 mUSD 2.85 bn
Cotton lintEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 392 m
BananasEMERGINGUSD 0 mUSD 297.6 m

Left-hand column: what Cameroon itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion
The number this document refuses to print

What Cameroon’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 17 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Cameroon’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Cameroon. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Cameroon’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map
Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Cameroon’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023
01NigeriaUSD 20.29 bn
02South AfricaUSD 18.22 bn
03EgyptUSD 13.51 bn
04MoroccoUSD 11.48 bn
05DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn
06LibyaUSD 5.48 bn
07GhanaUSD 5.12 bn
08KenyaUSD 4.69 bn
09TunisiaUSD 2.08 bn
10UgandaUSD 2.05 bn
11AlgeriaUSD 1.88 bn
12Cote dIvoireUSD 686.8 m
13MaliUSD 302.7 m
14TanzaniaUSD 233.4 m
15Burkina FasoUSD 205.1 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Cameroon. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence
What would have to be true

The conditions Cameroon would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Cameroon to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

01

Reliable, competitively priced power

For the cocoa-products trump card, grinders require reliable, competitively priced power — the very reliability the current sector crisis does not yet deliver.

02

Secured bean supply at predictable prices

Bean supply must be secured at predictable prices despite the EUDR traceability burden that could otherwise divert beans away from local grinders.

03

Grinder expansion and a move into finished chocolate

Grinding must expand to capture a larger share of the 300,000-plus-tonne crop, alongside a credible move into finished chocolate for consumer markets.

04

Cement utilisation and corridor logistics

Cement needs maintained capacity utilisation and corridor logistics to deliver its surplus into Chad, CAR and CEMAC at competitive landed cost.

05

Wood processing, energy and capital

Wood needs enough processing capacity, energy and capital to absorb the volumes displaced by the log-export ban without driving illegality.

06

Mineral financing close and one step of beneficiation

For the aspirational mineral categories — bauxite, iron, cobalt and refined fuels — financing must close, rail and port build-out proceed, and, decisively for the framework's logic, at least one step of domestic beneficiation replace raw export.

The binding constraints
·

Power reliability is the binding constraint Despite the 420 MW Nachtigal plant, it is reliability rather than capacity that binds: 83.6% of business leaders cite power disruption as the top business-environment weakness (GECAM 2025), ENEO is in financial crisis and was renationalised, and energy-intensive supply chains — aluminium, cocoa grinding and cement — are directly exposed.

·

Weak logistics and a rail gap The World Bank LPI stands at 2.1/5 (2022) with bottom-tier timeliness; Kribi lacks rail and good hinterland roads, and Douala remains congested.

·

Capital, single-buyer and feedstock dependency ALUCAM needs recapitalisation and imports its alumina; the Hilli LNG charter ends in 2026 with no committed successor; SONARA depends on uncertain PPP financing; and the mining megaprojects at Mbalam and Nkamouna have never closed financing.

·

Thin skills base Engineering and TVET capacity is thin relative to the country's industrial ambition.

·

Governance and security The Anglophone crisis and Far-North insecurity disrupt the Southwest and Northwest and corridor reliability, with post-2025-election unrest also noted.

·

Complexity drift A two-decade decline in economic complexity signals weak underlying capability accumulation.

13 · Devil’s advocate
Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

01

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Cameroon’s favour.

02

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

03

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

04

Power reliability is the binding constraint, not power capacity. Despite Nachtigal reaching full power in March 2025, 83.6% of business leaders cite power disruption as the top business-environment weakness, and ENEO is in financial crisis and was renationalised in November 2025. Energy-intensive supply covering aluminium, cocoa grinding and cement is directly exposed.

05

Logistics performance has deteriorated over the very period capacity was being built. The World Bank Logistics Performance Index fell to 2.1 out of 5 in 2022 from 2.6 in 2018, with bottom-tier timeliness. Kribi lacks rail and good hinterland roads, and Douala is congested; hinterland connectivity is Kribi's main weakness.

06

A far larger incumbent grinder sits directly across the trump-card category. Côte d'Ivoire ground 764,000 tonnes in 2024/25 against roughly 712,000 tonnes a year of installed capacity and, per USDA FAS, already processes 42% of its cocoa beans domestically with a stated ambition of 100% local processing by 2030. Feedstock competition pushing up bean prices and the EUDR-driven traceability burden could also divert beans.

07

Capital and single-buyer dependency runs through every non-cocoa category. ALUCAM needs recapitalisation and imports its alumina, the Hilli Episeyo LNG charter ends in mid-2026 with Golar having signed the vessel to Argentina and no committed successor, SONARA depends on uncertain PPP financing, and the Mbalam and Nkamouna mining megaprojects have never closed financing.

08

The skills base is thin relative to the industrial ambition. TVET and engineering capacity exists through institutions such as ENSP and the IUT network but is thin against SND30's targets. The bilingual French and English workforce is a distinctive asset for serving both Francophone and Anglophone African markets.

09

Complexity has drifted downwards for two decades. Cameroon fell from roughly 95th to 119th on the OEC Economic Complexity Index, with the World Bank noting a parallel drop from 94th to 120th. The audit reads this as a signal of weak capability accumulation.

10

Security and governance factually constrain corridor reliability. The Anglophone crisis has displaced over a million people and disrupted skills and logistics in the Northwest and Southwest, with Boko Haram insecurity in the Far North and post-October-2025-election unrest also noted. Corridor reliability to Chad and the Central African Republic is directly affected.

14 · Synthesis
The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Cameroon's Draft 1 bundle rests on the narrow set of categories where processing capability already exists rather than where resources merely sit in the ground: semi-finished cocoa paste and butter as the trump card, with cement and clinker-substitute cement and sawn wood and veneer as runners-up. Cocoa and wood are backed by revealed comparative advantage and recorded export performance alongside processing capacity, whereas cement rests on a structural surplus of installed capacity enabling exports rather than on a recorded comparative advantage. What must be proven is set out in the audit itself. For cocoa: reliable, competitively priced power for grinders, secured bean supply at predictable prices despite EUDR, and grinder expansion to capture a larger share of the 300,000-plus tonne crop, plus a credible move into finished chocolate. For cement: maintained capacity utilisation and corridor logistics to deliver the surplus into Chad, the Central African Republic and the wider CEMAC at competitive landed cost. For wood: enough processing, energy and capital to absorb the volumes displaced by the log-export ban without driving illegality. For the aspirational mineral categories of bauxite, iron, cobalt and refined fuels: financing close, rail and port build-out, and, decisively for the framework's logic, at least one step of domestic beneficiation rather than raw export.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Cameroon is shown 17 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Cameroon to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response
The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2