Right of Supply — Côte d'Ivoire

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Adama Coulibaly, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Côte d'Ivoire · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Coulibaly,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Côte d'Ivoire — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Côte d'Ivoire is in this room

Côte d'Ivoire's strongest endowment is cocoa and the first stage of its transformation: the world's largest producer at roughly 1.76 million tonnes in MY2023/24, some 40% of global supply, matched by installed grinding capacity exceeding 1.06 million tonnes across around fifteen firms, of which some 777,000 tonnes were actually processed domestically in 2024. It is reinforced by two deep-water ports, San-Pédro being the world's leading cocoa export port, and by an efficient refinery and a power system that already exports to six or more neighbouring states. The honest constraint is that this endowment is oriented outward rather than continentally: per UNCTAD, intra-African cocoa-product trade averaged US$170 million a year in 2015 to 2017 against US$7.8 billion to the rest of the world, most processing margin is captured by foreign multinationals, and the 2023/24 harvest fell 24% on the prior season.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Côte d'Ivoire, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Côte d'Ivoire

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

18draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Côte d'Ivoire’s draft bundle. 18 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Cocoa semi-finished (paste, butter, powder), Cocoa beans (raw). Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 continental anchor · 5 strong contender · 5 emerging · 5 aspirational · 1 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Côte d'Ivoire is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 18 candidate lines proposed for Côte d'Ivoire below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Côte d'Ivoire. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Côte d'Ivoire will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Côte d'Ivoire will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

18 lines

Côte d'Ivoire’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Côte d'Ivoire at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Côte d'Ivoire’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Côte d'Ivoire’s own capability audit.

Nickel (laterite ore)

Ore production has risen to roughly 2.84 million tonnes with around 260 million tonnes of identified potential, but it is exported entirely raw and the audit records no African processing demand for it. The audit places it as aspirational, not a present supply position.

Raw base · industrial screen

Ferro-alloys and battery-grade manganese

Côte d'Ivoire produced 357,000 tonnes of manganese in 2023 and an estimated 360,000 tonnes in 2024 (USGS MCS 2025), placing it roughly sixth to eighth among world producers, but there is no smelter and no domestic ferro-alloy or beneficiation capacity. The endowment is ore only; the finished good cannot be claimed.

Capability inversion

Rubber articles and tyres

Côte d'Ivoire is Africa's leading natural rubber producer and third in the world, yet local transformation runs at about 0.5% and there are no tyre plants. The advantage is feedstock only, while Africa imports tyres heavily.

Capability inversion

Gold (refined or doré)

Production is around 51.2 tonnes (2023) rising toward an estimated 58 tonnes (2024), but it is exported essentially raw, a SODEMI refinery's operational status is unconfirmed, and the audit notes bullion is globally traded rather than an import-substitution category. USGS does not list Côte d'Ivoire separately, and the 600-tonne national potential figure is not a classified reserve.

Raw base · industrial screen

Iron and steel

Iron ore is identified but undeveloped and there is no integrated mill. The audit classes the category as grey and insufficient despite heavy African steel imports.

Grey · insufficient evidence

Cotton lint and fibre

Seed cotton runs at roughly 347,922 tonnes with ginning capacity of 635,000 tonnes, but output is primary ginned lint while Africa imports fabric, not lint, at some 72%. The endowment does not match the shape of continental demand.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Côte d'Ivoire actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Côte d'Ivoire. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

Côte d'Ivoire's endowment is agro-industrial before it is anything else. It is the world's largest cocoa producer at roughly 1.76 million tonnes in MY2023/24 (USDA FAS), some 40% of world supply, and the world's largest raw cashew producer at roughly 1.2 million tonnes in 2023 (World Bank), again around 40% of global supply. It is Africa's leading natural rubber producer, accounting for some 77 to 80% of African output and third in the world at roughly 1.55 to 1.68 million tonnes (FAOSTAT/APROMAC), about 12% of global production. It is Africa's second palm oil producer after Nigeria and the leading African exporter at roughly 600,000 tonnes (MY2024/25, USDA FAS), produces around 347,922 tonnes of seed cotton (2023/24, Cotton and Cashew Council), sits among the top ten robusta coffee producers, and Abidjan is Africa's leading tuna fishing and landing hub.

What distinguishes the state is that this raw endowment is paired with a real, if foreign-dominated, processing base. In 2024 roughly 777,000 tonnes of cocoa, some 44% of the harvest, were ground locally, against installed grinding capacity exceeding 1.06 million tonnes across around fifteen firms (Ecofin Agency 2024; FAO 2025), with Barry Callebaut, Cargill, Olam, CEMOI and the state-owned Transcao among the operators. Cashew processing rose from 68,515 tonnes in 2018 to roughly 344,000 tonnes in 2024 against installed capacity of 660,000 to 830,000 tonnes, making Côte d'Ivoire the world's third-largest cashew processor. PALMCI produces around 280,000 tonnes of crude palm oil a year and five refiners produce roughly 350,000 tonnes of refined oil and derivatives. Energy and logistics reinforce this: the SIR refinery at Abidjan has installed capacity of roughly 71,000 to 75,000 barrels a day and processed 3.34 million tonnes of crude into 4.84 million tonnes of products in 2023; installed generation of roughly 2,907 MW makes this the third-largest power system in West Africa and an established net exporter to Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, Togo, Benin, Guinea and Liberia. Abidjan is West Africa's largest port by tonnage at 34.7 to 34.8 million tonnes (2023), and San-Pédro, at 7.02 million tonnes, is the world's leading cocoa export port.

Against that endowment the complexity picture is sober. The OEC ranks Côte d'Ivoire 117th most complex in 2022, down from around 79th two decades earlier, the signature of deep commodity dependence with value capture occurring offshore. Its revealed comparative advantage is concentrated in raw and first-stage products: cocoa beans at an RCA of roughly 542, cocoa paste around 364, rubber around 154, cashews and coconuts around 133 and cocoa butter around 127, with some fifty-five products above an RCA of one. The one adjacency the product space flags as both feasible and complexity-enhancing is the move from cocoa paste and butter into chocolate and cocoa-containing food preparations, at a product complexity index of about 0.29. Everything else in the high-RCA set is a primary or semi-processed commodity.

The endowment in depth

Côte d'Ivoire's mineral endowment is real and rising but almost entirely raw-export, with near-zero domestic smelting or refining. National gold production was around 51.2 tonnes in 2023 (Ministry of Mines/DGMG), forecast at roughly 58 tonnes for 2024 and 62 tonnes for 2025 on the back of the Endeavour Lafigué mine, ranking the country Africa's seventh-largest gold producer in 2024 (World Gold Council, via Ecofin); the frequently cited 600-tonne "gold potential" is a national estimate, not a USGS- or BGS-classified reserve, and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 folds the country into "Other countries" rather than listing it separately. Gold is exported essentially raw, and a SODEMI refinery has been announced but its operational status is unconfirmed. Manganese output was 357,000 tonnes in 2023 and an estimated 360,000 tonnes in 2024 (manganese content, USGS), placing the country roughly sixth to eighth among world producers, yet it ships as raw ore or concentrate, principally to China, with no domestic ferro-alloy or beneficiation. Nickel laterite carries around 260 Mt of potential, with ore production rising from 379,800 tonnes (2017) to about 2.84 Mt (2023) under Compagnie Minière du Bafing, again exported raw; diamonds, bauxite and identified but undeveloped iron ore, copper, lithium, coltan and cobalt complete a picture of geological breadth without transformation.

Energy is a genuine strength and the hidden gate for heavy manufacturing — a deployed capability rather than a potential one. The country runs the atypical profile of a net crude importer that is a net exporter of refined products: oil output of roughly 60,000 bbl/d in 2024 comes from Eni's Baleine field, with associated gas of about 70 MMscf/d feeding the Abidjan and Jacqueville thermal plants, and production could rise toward 200,000 bbl/d by 2027 if the Baleine phases proceed. Refining rests on SIR (Société Ivoirienne de Raffinage) in Abidjan, with installed capacity of about 71,000–75,000 bbl/d (3.5–3.8 Mt/yr) and a reputation as one of the most efficient refineries in sub-Saharan Africa; it is 47.3% state-held alongside Total, Shell and ExxonMobil, and processed 3.34 Mt of crude into 4.84 Mt of products in 2023. A second 170,000-bbl/d refinery is planned under an MoU with Yaatra (US$5.1bn) but is not operational. Installed generation reached about 2,907 MW in 2023 — roughly 1,998 MW thermal gas, 879 MW hydro and 30 MW solar — making it the third-largest power system in West Africa and an established net exporter to Ghana, Burkina Faso, Mali, Togo, Benin, Guinea and Liberia, against a 5,000 MW target for 2030 and electrification of around 72% in 2023.

The agricultural endowment is the continent's most commanding across multiple crops and the core of any supply claim. Côte d'Ivoire is the world's number-one cocoa producer at roughly 1.76 Mt (MY2023/24, USDA FAS), about 40% of world supply, and the world's number-one raw cashew producer at around 1.2 Mt (2023, World Bank), likewise about 40% of the global total. It is Africa's leading natural-rubber producer — some 77–80% of African output and the world's third-largest at roughly 1.55–1.68 Mt, about 12% of global production — and Africa's second-largest palm-oil producer after Nigeria and its leading African exporter at around 600,000 tonnes. Seed cotton ran to about 347,922 tonnes in 2023/24, with fibre of roughly 650,000–730,000 bales; the country is among the top-ten robusta coffee producers and a leading tuna fishing and landing hub.

On this raw base sits a real, if first-stage and foreign-multinational-dominated, processing sector: industry rose from 15.6% of GDP (2015) to 19.8% (2023), sector value added reached 9,463.6bn FCFA (2023), and UNIDO records an 11-position advance on its SDG-9/CIP index between 2015 and 2020. Cocoa grinding processed about 777,000 tonnes locally in 2024 (44% of the harvest) against installed capacity exceeding 1.06 million tonnes across some 15 firms — Barry Callebaut, Cargill, Olam, CEMOI and the state's Transcao (100,000 tonnes after its PK24 plant in 2025) — a hub rivalling the Netherlands. Cashew processing climbed from 68,515 tonnes (2018) to about 344,000 tonnes (2024) on installed capacity of 660,000–830,000 tonnes, the world's third-largest, anchored by Dorado near Yamoussoukro (about 100,000 tonnes, among the world's largest single-site cashew plants), Olam, Valency and Robust; PALMCI (SIFCA) produces around 280,000 tonnes of CPO a year (about 70% of national output) and five refiners some 350,000 tonnes of refined oil, while three tuna canneries turn out about 60,000 tonnes and auto assembly remains embryonic (IVECO/SOTRA's "Daily Ivoire"; an Ashok Leyland agreement). Human capital is the binding constraint on complexity: a labour force of about 8.7 million is roughly 60% agricultural, cocoa alone supporting about one million farmers and five million people and cashew about 450,000 producers, while primary-education quality scored just 22.2/100 in 2023 and sector skill clusters (the IRCA rubber institute, a planned APROMAC academy) remain thin. The logistics endowment, by contrast, is a genuine deliverability advantage: Abidjan is West Africa's largest port by tonnage at 34.7–34.8 Mt (2023), handling about 90% of external trade with a second container terminal lifting capacity to 2.5M TEU, San-Pédro moved 7.02 Mt (2023) as the world's leading cocoa export port, and the Abidjan–Ouagadougou rail and road corridors carry transit for landlocked Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (over 1.07 Mt in 2023), tempered by 60-plus checkpoints on the Abidjan–Lagos corridor.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

Côte d'Ivoire is a low-complexity, declining-trajectory economy: OEC ranks it 117th most complex in 2022, down from around 79th two decades earlier (an ECI of −1.128 in 2017), the signature of deep commodity dependence in which value capture occurs offshore. Its overwhelming revealed comparative advantage sits in raw and first-stage cocoa (beans RCA around 542, paste around 364, butter around 127), rubber (around 154) and cashews and coconuts (around 133), with some 55 products carrying RCA above 1 — but nearly all of them are primary or semi-processed commodities.

The product-space adjacency the Atlas and OEC flag as both feasible and complexity-enhancing is the move from cocoa paste and butter into chocolate and cocoa-containing food preparations (PCI around 0.29), alongside vegetable and animal colouring matter and paints and varnishes — that is, the next step up the cocoa chain is the most "related" complex opportunity available. It is the one credible upgrade path that raises complexity rather than merely adding volume; everything else in the high-RCA set simply reinforces the existing commodity profile.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

The single most defensible continental supply position is cocoa semi-finished products — cocoa paste, butter and powder (HS 1803, 1804, 1805) — because it clears all five tests at once. On input, Côte d'Ivoire is the world's number-one cocoa producer at roughly 1.76 Mt (MY2023/24, USDA FAS), about 40% of global supply, an unrivalled feedstock base. On processing, it already operates installed grinding capacity exceeding 1.06 million tonnes across some 15 firms (Ecofin 2024; FAO 2025) — the largest or near-largest national grinding hub on earth — with named anchor plants in Barry Callebaut, Cargill, Olam and the state's Transcao. On competitiveness, cocoa-chain RCA is extreme (beans around 542, paste around 364, butter around 127), and per Ecofin Agency (2024, via One Africa Markets) each tonne processed in Côte d'Ivoire adds an estimated US$900–1,200 more value than exporting it raw. On deliverability, San-Pédro is the world's leading cocoa export port and Abidjan handles 90% of trade, so semi-finished cocoa ships easily; on continental demand, the country already supplies the dominant share of intra-African cocoa-product export volume into a growing African chocolate and confectionery market. The mechanism of advantage is durable — geological and agro-climatic luck compounded by three decades of institutional coordination through the Conseil Café-Cacao, export-duty engineering and anchor FDI.

The honest limits are equally clear. The prize is currently far more export-to-world than intra-African: per UNCTAD, exports of cocoa and related products from Africa to the rest of the world dwarf the intra-African market, averaging $7.8 billion a year against $170 million in the 2015–2017 period, so the substitution thesis is thinner than the raw endowment suggests. Feedstock is exposed — ageing plantations, disease and EUDR compliance all threaten supply, and per USDA FAS (2025) the MY2023/24 season was 24 percent down at 1.76 Mt against 2.3 Mt the year before — and foreign multinationals capture most of the processing margin, so throughput inside the country does not automatically translate into retained value or decision power.

Current reality

Côte d'Ivoire is West Africa's largest economy and the WAEMU anchor, with GDP of roughly US$86.5 billion and a population of around 31.9 million in 2024 (World Bank), giving GDP per capita of about US$2,728. It accounts for over 39% of WAEMU GDP (US State Department, 2024). Industry's share of GDP rose from 15.6% in 2015 to 19.8% in 2023, and UNIDO records an advance of eleven positions on the SDG-9 competitive industrial performance index between 2015 and 2020, though the exact current global rank could not be extracted from UNIDO primary tables in this cycle and is marked grey. The processing base that exists is real but first-stage and multinational-dominated, with minimal finished-goods manufacture; automotive assembly is embryonic.

The constraints are equally concrete. Cocoa output in MY2023/24 was, per USDA FAS (2025), "24 percent down" against the prior season, 1.76 against 2.3 million tonnes, due to adverse weather, with ageing trees, brown-rot disease, soil degradation and EUDR compliance pressure compounding the forward risk. Despite a power surplus, electrification stands at roughly 72% and hydro is drought-exposed, with no corporate power purchase or wheeling contract concluded in ten years. The Abidjan-Lagos corridor carries more than sixty checkpoints adding cost, and rail capacity is limited. The labour force of about 8.7 million is roughly 60% agricultural, the tertiary base is low and primary-education quality scored 22.2 out of 100 in 2023. Most importantly for any continental supply thesis, the largest endowments are sold outside Africa: exports run roughly 50% to Europe against 23% intra-African, and refined petroleum, not cocoa, is the most Africa-oriented major export.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 18 candidate lines · will change

Côte d'Ivoire’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Côte d'Ivoire’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Côte d'Ivoire will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Côte d'Ivoire’s 18 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Continental Anchor 2Strong Contender 5Emerging 5Aspirational 5Grey 1

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Refined petroleum products

SIR refinery; established Sahel exporter · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Africa imports ~120Mt/yr (~US$90bn) fuels

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 110.54 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271000Bituminous Petroleum Distillates (Excl. Crude)

271011Light oils and preparations, of petroleum or bituminous minerals which >= 90% by volume incl....

271012Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271019Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, not containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.

271020Petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals, containing biodiesel, not crude, not waste oils; preparations n.e.c, c

271091Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude; and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or prepara

271099Waste Oils; of petroleum or obtained from bituminous minerals, not crude and preparations n.e.c., weight 70% or preparat

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Procuring agency (indicative): NNPC (Nigeria), UNOC (Uganda), PBPA (Tanzania) · Fuel Security · control: monopoly · controlled. Indicative only — this is the government function that typically buys this category, not a tender-line identification.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 1.48 bn of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Nigeria USD 19.94 bnSouth Africa USD 15.19 bnDR Congo USD 7.8 bnMorocco USD 7.61 bnEgypt USD 6.53 bnLibya USD 4.61 bnGhana USD 4.45 bnKenya USD 4.36 bn

Source: OEC; Trade.gov · 2024

Palm oil & derivatives

Africa #2 producer, #1 African exporter · Maturity: Intermediate-finished · Competitiveness: SSA net importer ~5.5Mt/yr

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 6.9 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

151110Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, crude, not chemically modified

151190Vegetable oils; palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 6 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 28.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.32 bnKenya USD 838.9 mEthiopia USD 491.4 mSouth Africa USD 462 mDjibouti USD 451.6 mUganda USD 311.4 mMozambique USD 250.1 mSomalia USD 201.9 m

Source: USDA FAS; OFI · 2024/2025

Rubber articles / tyres

Feedstock advantage only; no tyre plants · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Africa imports tyres heavily

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 4.59 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

401110Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)

401120Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorries

401130Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on aircraft

401140Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motorcycles

401150Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on bicycles

401161Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401162Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401163Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread, of a kind used on...

401169Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, having a "herring-bone" or similar tread (excluding of a kind...

401170Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on agricultural or forestry vehicles and machines

401180Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on construction, mining or industrial handling vehicles and machines

401190Rubber; new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on light commercial vehicles

401191New pneumatic tyres, of rubber, with lug, herringbone or similar treads, of the type used for...

401192Pneumatic tyres, of rubber, new, of a kind used on agricultural or forestry vehicles and machines...

401193Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, of a kind used on construction or industrial handling vehicles...

401194Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber, of a kind used on construction or industrial handling vehicles...

401199Pneumatic tyres, new, of rubber (excluding having a "herring-bone" or similar tread and pneumatic...

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 2 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 87.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 737.4 mEgypt USD 586.2 mMorocco USD 419.8 mAlgeria USD 287.7 mLibya USD 256.7 mGhana USD 178.7 mNigeria USD 174 mTanzania USD 170.9 m

Source: Daba · 2024

Iron/steel

Undeveloped iron ore; no integrated mill · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Africa imports steel heavily

GREY

USD 3.72 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

720110Iron; non-alloy pig iron containing by weight 0.5% or less of phosphorus, in pigs, blocks or other primary forms

720120Iron; non-alloy pig iron containing by weight more than 0.5% of phosphorus, in pigs, blocks or other primary forms

720150Iron; alloy pig iron; spiegeleisen, in pigs, blocks or other primary forms

720810Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, with patterns in relief

720825Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickle

720826Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickle

720827Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickle

720836Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a t

720837Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a t

720838Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a t

720839Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a t

720840Iron or non-alloy steel; (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, with patterns in relief

720851Iron or non-alloy steel; (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness exceeding 10mm

720852Iron or non-alloy steel; (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm

720853Iron or non-alloy steel; (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm

720854Iron or non-alloy steel; (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, without patterns in relief, of a thickness of less than 3mm

720890Iron or non-alloy steel; flat-rolled, hot-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, n.e.c. in heading no. 7208

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 40 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 886 mKenya USD 460.8 mTanzania USD 362 mAlgeria USD 350.5 mSouth Africa USD 274.2 mTunisia USD 262.9 mUganda USD 182.2 mEthiopia USD 163.9 m

Source: EITI · 2024

Gold (refined/doré)

~58t (2024); Africa #7 · Maturity: Raw doré · Competitiveness: Globally traded, not import-substitution

EMERGING

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: GPMCI/Reuters; USGS · 2024/2025

Electricity

3rd-largest WA grid; net exporter to 6+ states · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Sahel/WAPP chronic deficits

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 2.24 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

271600Electrical energy

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 14 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 337.6 mMorocco USD 223.4 mTunisia USD 223.1 mMozambique USD 210 mBurkina Faso USD 196.1 mZimbabwe USD 180.1 mBotswana USD 158.7 mBenin USD 118.9 m

Source: Trade.gov; IRENA · 2023/2024

Coffee (processed/soluble)

Top-10 robusta producer · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Moderate

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 1.13 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

090111Coffee; not roasted or decaffeinated

090112Coffee; decaffeinated, not roasted

090121Coffee; roasted, not decaffeinated

090122Coffee; roasted, decaffeinated

090190Coffee; husks and skins, coffee substitutes containing coffee in any proportion

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 12 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 3.7 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Algeria USD 322.4 mEgypt USD 217.4 mSudan USD 151.5 mMorocco USD 148 mSouth Africa USD 99.8 mLibya USD 77.7 mTunisia USD 34.5 mNamibia USD 9.7 m

Source: USDA/CIA · 2024

Canned/processed tuna

Abidjan Africa's leading tuna port; 3 canneries · Maturity: Finished · Competitiveness: Africa net importer 100–130kt/yr

EMERGING

USD 850.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

160411Fish preparations; salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160412Fish preparations; herrings, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160413Fish preparations; sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not mince

160414Fish preparations; tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minc

160415Fish preparations; mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160416Fish preparations; anchovies, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160417Fish preparations; eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160418Fish preparations; shark fins, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced)

160419Fish preparations; fish prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced), n.e.c. in heading no. 1604

160420Fish preparations; fish minced or in forms n.e.c. in heading no. 1604, prepared or preserved

160430Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs

160431Fish preparations; caviar

160432Fish preparations; caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 7 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 5.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Libya USD 214.4 mSouth Africa USD 100 mEgypt USD 86.3 mAlgeria USD 75.3 mGhana USD 60.4 mMorocco USD 44.2 mGabon USD 32.1 mSomalia USD 31.4 m

Source: Atuna; IndexBox · 2014/2024

Chocolate & cocoa food preparations

Feasible adjacency; nascent local manufacture · Maturity: Nascent finished · Competitiveness: Intra-African confectionery market growing

EMERGING

USD 706.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180610Cocoa; powder, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter

180620Chocolate & other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars weighing more than 2kg or in liquid, past

180631Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, filled, weighing 2kg or less

180632Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or less

180690Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa; n.e.c. in chapter 18

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 4 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 8.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Libya USD 147.8 mSouth Africa USD 126.1 mMorocco USD 101.3 mEgypt USD 54.2 mNigeria USD 37.5 mMauritius USD 29.9 mNamibia USD 15.8 mAngola USD 14.6 m

Source: OEC; IndexBox · 2024

Ferro-alloys / battery-grade manganese

Ore endowment only; no smelter · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: Steel/battery inputs

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 607 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

282010Manganese dioxide

282090Manganese oxides; excluding manganese dioxide

720211Ferro-alloys; ferro-manganese, containing by weight more than 2% of carbon

720219Ferro-alloys; ferro-manganese, containing by weight 2% or less of carbon

720221Ferro-alloys; ferro-silicon, containing by weight more than 55% of silicon

720229Ferro-alloys; ferro-silicon, containing by weight 55% or less of silicon

720230Ferro-alloys; ferro-silico-manganese

720241Ferro-alloys; ferro-chromium, containing by weight more than 4% of carbon

720249Ferro-alloys; ferro-chromium, containing by weight 4% or less of carbon

720250Ferro-alloys; ferro-silico-chromium

720260Ferro-alloys; ferro-nickel

720270Ferro-alloys; ferro-molybdenum

720280Ferro-alloys; ferro-tungsten and ferro-silico-tungsten

720291Ferro-alloys; ferro-titanium and ferro-silico-titanium

720292Ferro-alloys; ferro-vanadium

720293Ferro-alloys; ferro-niobium

720299Ferro-alloys; n.e.c. in heading no. 7202

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 214.9 mSouth Africa USD 132.9 mAlgeria USD 63.2 mNigeria USD 27.4 mMorocco USD 26.7 mNamibia USD 21.5 mLibya USD 17.1 mEthiopia USD 12.6 m

Source: USGS MCS · 2024

Cotton lint/fibre

~350kt seed cotton; gins 635kt capacity · Maturity: Primary · Competitiveness: Africa imports fabric not lint

EMERGING

USD 392 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

520100Cotton; not carded or combed

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 10 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 281.8 mMauritius USD 41.3 mAlgeria USD 23.8 mLesotho USD 21.2 mMorocco USD 14.4 mTunisia USD 2.6 mMozambique USD 2.4 mSouth Africa USD 2.1 m

Source: USDA FAS · 2024/2026

Cocoa semi-finished (paste, butter, powder)

World #1 cocoa producer; >1.06Mt installed grinding · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: CIV dominant intra-African cocoa-product exporter

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

USD 321.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180310Cocoa; paste, not defatted

180320Cocoa; paste, wholly or partly defatted

180400Cocoa; butter, fat and oil

180500Cocoa; powder, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter

Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0.1 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 108.2 mAlgeria USD 86.4 mSouth Africa USD 57 mMorocco USD 33 mTunisia USD 13.3 mKenya USD 5.1 mLibya USD 3.9 mSenegal USD 3.3 m

Source: USDA FAS; FAO; Ecofin · 2024/2025

Cashew nut shell liquid & by-products

By-product of cashew processing; CNSL plants · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Niche industrial input

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 228.1 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

130211Vegetable saps and extracts; opium

130212Vegetable saps and extracts; of liquorice

130213Vegetable saps and extracts; of hops

130214Vegetable saps and extracts; of ephedra

130219Vegetable saps and extracts; n.e.c. in item no. 1302.1

130220Pectic substances; pectinates and pectates

130231Mucilages and thickeners; agar-agar, whether or not modified, derived from vegetable products

130232Mucilages and thickeners; whether or not modified, derived from locust beans, locust bean seeds or guar seeds

130239Mucilages and thickeners; whether or not modified, derived from vegetable products, n.e.c. in item no. 1302.3

380110Graphite; artificial

380120Graphite; colloidal or semi-colloidal

380130Carbonaceous pastes; for electrodes and similar pastes for furnace linings

380190Graphite or other carbon based preparations; in the form of pastes, blocks, plates or other semi-manufactures

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 1.5 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 44.1 mEgypt USD 30.1 mAlgeria USD 27.8 mCongo USD 20 mZimbabwe USD 18.4 mMorocco USD 12 mZambia USD 10.5 mTunisia USD 8.9 m

Source: Data Bites; Ecofin · 2024/2025

Natural rubber (TSR/block)

Africa #1, world #3, ~1.6Mt · Maturity: Raw/primary · Competitiveness: Tyre demand mostly offshore

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 163.9 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

400110Rubber; natural rubber latex, whether or not pre-vulcanised, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip

400121Rubber; natural (excluding latex), in smoked sheets

400122Rubber; technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (excluding latex and

400129Rubber; natural (excluding latex, technically specified natural rubber and smoked sheets), in primary forms or in plates

400130Balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle and similar natural gums; in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 3 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

South Africa USD 67.7 mEgypt USD 47.3 mLiberia USD 13.4 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mTunisia USD 5.9 mUganda USD 5 mNigeria USD 4.3 mEthiopia USD 3.3 m

Source: FAOSTAT; Daba · 2023/2024

Cashew kernels

World #1 raw producer; 3rd-largest processor · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: Africa processes <15%; high substitution scope

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 155.7 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

080111Nuts, edible; coconuts, desiccated

080112Nuts, edible; coconuts, in the inner shell (endocarp)

080119Nuts, edible; coconuts, fresh or dried, other than desiccated or in the inner shell (endocarp)

080121Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080122Nuts, edible; brazil nuts, fresh or dried, shelled

080131Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, in shell

080132Nuts, edible; cashew nuts, fresh or dried, shelled

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 38.1 mAlgeria USD 35.1 mMorocco USD 34.1 mSouth Africa USD 22.6 mLibya USD 5.8 mNigeria USD 4.3 mSomalia USD 3.1 mGhana USD 2.4 m

Source: World Bank; Ecofin · 2024/2025

Nickel (laterite ore)

~2.84Mt ore; 260Mt potential · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: No African processing demand

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 48.2 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260400Nickel ores and concentrates

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Namibia USD 46.3 mSouth Africa USD 1.9 m

Source: Ecofin/EITI · 2024

Cocoa beans (raw)

~40% of world supply, 1.76Mt · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Mainly extra-African (Europe)

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

USD 45.3 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

180100Cocoa beans; whole or broken, raw or roasted

Screening intensity · indicativeHigh

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Tunisia USD 19.7 mGhana USD 17.1 mAlgeria USD 6.9 mSenegal USD 0.4 mSouth Africa USD 0.2 mUganda USD 0.2 mMadagascar USD 0.2 mDjibouti USD 0.2 m

Source: USDA FAS · 2024/2025

Manganese ore/concentrate

357–360kt; 6th–8th world · Maturity: Raw · Competitiveness: Steel feed; no African beneficiation

EMERGING

USD 12 mgross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260200Manganese ores and concentrates, including ferruginous manganese ores and concentrates with a manganese content of 20% o

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 8 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Côte d'Ivoire imported USD 0.2 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 8.8 mSouth Africa USD 2.4 mAngola USD 0.4 mCote dIvoire USD 0.2 mKenya USD 0.1 mMorocco USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS MCS · 2024

Per-line values are gross 2023 continental import demand from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3. The screening intensity on each card is a qualitative indicator only — how strongly the government and off-continent screens are likely to apply, read from the strength tier. It is deliberately not a monetary figure: the addressable value is measured only after the bilateral trade re-pull at Draft 2. Lines marked as shared are claimed by more than one member state at Draft 1; allocation between them is unresolved. Lines marked GREY carry an endowment that is noted but not yet verified. No total is presented for this bundle: summing overlapping candidate lines would produce a meaningless figure, and the claim value for Côte d'Ivoire is resolved only at Draft 2.

10 · Balance

What Côte d'Ivoire buys, beside what it might make

The fairness test runs in both directions

A right to supply is only fair if it is sized near what the member itself buys. This is the honest counterweight: Côte d'Ivoire is a buyer in this system before it is a supplier, and its own import bill is the anchor against which any future claim is sized.

USD 18.63 bn

Côte d'Ivoire’s total merchandise imports, 2023. Every line below is measured against this, not against the continental figure.

Candidate lines in the Draft 1 bundle. The number of lines is not a measure of value.

Lines whose figure is still pending verification and is rendered GREY rather than estimated.

Candidate product line	Strength tier	Côte d'Ivoire imports, 2023	Continental demand, 2023
Refined petroleum products	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 1.48 bn	USD 110.54 bn
Rubber articles / tyres	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 87.1 m	USD 4.59 bn
Iron/steel	GREY	USD 40 m	USD 3.72 bn
Palm oil & derivatives	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 28.5 m	USD 6.9 bn
Chocolate & cocoa food preparations	EMERGING	USD 8.1 m	USD 706.2 m
Canned/processed tuna	EMERGING	USD 5.5 m	USD 850.3 m
Coffee (processed/soluble)	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 3.7 m	USD 1.13 bn
Ferro-alloys / battery-grade manganese	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 2 m	USD 607 m
Cashew nut shell liquid & by-products	ASPIRATIONAL	USD 1.5 m	USD 228.1 m
Natural rubber (TSR/block)	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0.3 m	USD 163.9 m
Manganese ore/concentrate	EMERGING	USD 0.2 m	USD 12 m
Cocoa semi-finished (paste, butter, powder)	CONTINENTAL ANCHOR	USD 0.1 m	USD 321.2 m
Gold (refined/doré)	EMERGING	USD 0 m	USD 2.99 bn
Electricity	STRONG CONTENDER	USD 0 m	USD 2.24 bn

Left-hand column: what Côte d'Ivoire itself imported in this category in 2023. Right-hand column: gross continental import demand for the same category — market context only. The two columns are deliberately not netted: doing so before allocation is resolved would imply a claim that Draft 1 does not make.

11 · Proportion

The number this document refuses to print

What Côte d'Ivoire’s claim is worth is not yet known

At this point a document of this kind normally states a headline: what the allocation is worth to the country. Draft 1 does not, and the reason is the most important methodological statement in these pages.

Why there is no headline figure here

The bundle contains 18 candidate lines. Each carries a gross continental demand figure. Adding them would produce a number, and that number would be worthless — in several cases many times Côte d'Ivoire’s entire economy. It would be worthless for three reasons, each of them sufficient on its own.

Overlap

Lines are claimed by several member states at Draft 1. The same continental demand would be counted once for each claimant.

Gross, not addressable

These are total continental imports from all sources — before the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens are applied.

Allocation unresolved

No share of any line has been assigned to Côte d'Ivoire. Until allocation is settled there is no quantity to value.

Capability, not entitlement

Aspirational and GREY lines describe a build or an unverified endowment, not present production that could be sold next year.

So the figure is stated the only honest way it can be at this stage: GREY — verification pending. It is produced at Draft 2, after the screens and after allocation, and it will be smaller than any sum of the cards above. A minister who is shown a large headline today is being shown an artefact of double-counting, not a prospect.

GREY — verification pending

Côte d'Ivoire’s claim value. Resolved at Draft 2, after screens and allocation.

25 years

The allocation horizon that can make a plant financeable — subject to Match-or-Release on every single order.

10% → 100%

Local-content ramp over ten years. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent.

12 · Demand map

Who buys these categories today

The continental buyers behind Côte d'Ivoire’s draft bundle

Where the demand for these product categories actually sits, ranked by 2023 gross imports. This is the customer book the instrument would open — the states that currently buy these goods from outside the continent.

Leading importing states across the bundle

Gross USD · 2023

01NigeriaUSD 20.19 bn

02South AfricaUSD 18.33 bn

03EgyptUSD 10.55 bn

04MoroccoUSD 8.72 bn

05DR CongoUSD 7.8 bn

06KenyaUSD 5.66 bn

07LibyaUSD 5.39 bn

08GhanaUSD 4.71 bn

09UgandaUSD 2.4 bn

10AlgeriaUSD 1.33 bn

11EthiopiaUSD 671.2 m

12TunisiaUSD 614.3 m

13TanzaniaUSD 532.9 m

14MozambiqueUSD 462.5 m

15DjiboutiUSD 451.8 m

Read this as a market map, not a claim. These values are the sum of gross continental imports across the candidate categories, shown to indicate where demand is concentrated. Because candidate lines overlap between member states and precede the screens, this ranking indicates the shape of the market and not revenue available to Côte d'Ivoire. Bar widths are relative to the leading state.

13 · Due diligence

What would have to be true

The conditions Côte d'Ivoire would have to meet

A supply right is only as good as the capability behind it. These are the conditions the audit says must hold for Côte d'Ivoire to deliver — printed here, not buried, because a room of finance ministers will ask.

Hit and hold the 50% cocoa local-grind target.

Move beyond paste and butter into powder and finished chocolate for African retail markets, secure feedstock against disease and climate, and finance domestic processors — the FAO flags a working-capital gap, with banks preferring to finance bean exports.

Secure refinery capacity and crude feedstock.

Complete or secure refining capacity (the SIR expansion or the announced 170,000-bbl/d plant) with reliable crude supply, and formalise WAEMU and AfCFTA fuel-supply contracts.

Deliver 5,000 MW and WAPP interconnection.

Meet the 5,000 MW generation target for 2030 and the West African Power Pool interconnection, and resolve the absent wheeling and PPA framework.

Continue the cashew capacity build toward 50% by 2030.

Cut working-capital and machinery-import dependence on Vietnam and India, and develop kernel quality to compete on the four-dimension match against Asian processors.

Raise complexity and reorient exports toward Africa.

Lift CIP and MVA, fix the corridor checkpoints, deepen TVET, and shift export orientation toward African buyers to make the Right of Supply match credible.

The binding constraints

Feedstock concentration and climate. Per USDA FAS (2025), cocoa output was 24 percent down in 2023/24 at 1.76 Mt against 2.3 Mt the prior season; ageing trees, brown-rot disease, soil degradation and EUDR compliance pressure all threaten the feedstock base on which the headline position rests.

Foreign ownership of processing. Grinding and much of the cashew and palm processing is multinational-controlled, so margin and decision power sit offshore even as physical throughput rises inside the country.

Power reliability and cost. Despite a generation surplus, electrification is only around 72% and hydro is drought-exposed; corporate PPAs and wheeling are absent, with no such contract signed in ten years.

Logistics frictions. The Abidjan–Lagos corridor carries 60-plus checkpoints that add cost, and rail capacity is limited, constraining the deliverability advantage that the coastal and transit role otherwise confers.

Skills base. A low tertiary and TVET base, with primary-education quality scored at 22.2/100 in 2023, is a real constraint on any move into complex manufacturing.

Demand mismatch and single-buyer dependency. The largest endowments — cocoa, rubber and gold — are sold mainly outside Africa; per UNCTAD, intra-African cocoa-product trade averaged just $170 million a year in 2015–17 against $7.8 billion to the rest of the world, weakening the intra-African substitution thesis, while manganese and nickel are tied to Chinese offtake, SIR depends on imported crude, and cotton and rubber lean on Asian buyers.

13 · Devil’s advocate

Surfaced, not buried

Where this could still be wrong

This bundle is Draft 1, and several of its lines are contested. Lines flagged as shared are claimed by more than one member state. Draft 1 deliberately shows the conflict rather than silently resolving it in Côte d'Ivoire’s favour.

Gross continental demand is not addressable demand. Every figure on the bundle pages precedes the government, off-continent, industrial and balance screens. The addressable figure will be materially smaller.

A strength tier is a judgement, not a measurement. Tiers are assessed from the capability audit. Reasonable people can disagree, and the Minister’s correction of a tier is precisely the input Draft 2 needs.

Feedstock is contracting, not expanding. Per USDA FAS (2025), cocoa output in MY2023/24 was 24% down on the prior season, 1.76 against 2.3 million tonnes, on adverse weather. Ageing trees, brown-rot disease, soil degradation and EUDR compliance pressure compound the risk to the single endowment on which the headline claim rests.

The processing margin sits offshore. Cocoa grinding and much of the cashew and palm processing base is multinational-controlled. Decision power and margin therefore reside outside the state, which constrains what a sovereign supply commitment can actually direct.

The demand is not where the endowment is. Per UNCTAD, intra-African cocoa-product trade averaged just US$170 million a year in 2015 to 2017 against US$7.8 billion to the rest of the world. Roughly 50% of exports go to Europe against 23% intra-African, weakening the intra-African substitution thesis for the headline categories.

Power surplus does not yet mean power reliability. Despite being West Africa's third-largest system and an established net exporter, electrification stands at roughly 72%, hydro is drought-exposed, and no corporate power purchase or wheeling contract has been concluded in ten years. The framework has to be resolved before heavy processing can be underwritten.

Corridor friction taxes every tonne moved inland. The Abidjan-Lagos corridor carries more than sixty checkpoints adding cost (TradeMark Africa), and rail capacity is limited, even as the state serves as the transit route for landlocked Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with transit traffic above 1.07 million tonnes in 2023.

The skills base will not carry complex manufacture. The labour force of about 8.7 million is roughly 60% agricultural, the tertiary base is low, and primary-education quality scored 22.2 out of 100 in 2023 (ISS African Futures). Sector clusters exist in rubber, but skills remain a stated constraint on complex manufacturing.

Single-buyer and imported-feedstock dependencies run through the strong categories. Manganese and nickel are tied to Chinese offtake, cotton and rubber to Asian buyers, and the SIR refinery depends on imported crude, since the state is a net crude importer and net refined-product exporter. Announced capacity, including the 170,000-barrel-a-day second refinery, is not operational.

14 · Synthesis

The honest read

A fixed prize, a draft bundle, and a decision that belongs to the Minister

The prize is USD 620 bn — the goods Africa buys each year from outside the continent, out of USD 709 bn of total imports, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within Africa today. The instrument begins where a signature can move demand: USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn that government influences. That spine is fixed.

Côte d'Ivoire's Draft 1 bundle rests on three things the audit treats as deployed rather than potential: a dominant agricultural endowment across cocoa, cashew, rubber and palm oil; a first-stage processing base with named installed capacity in cocoa grinding, cashew shelling and palm refining; and an energy and logistics platform comprising the SIR refinery, an established power-export position to six or more states, and two ports handling 34.7 to 34.8 million tonnes and 7.02 million tonnes respectively. What must be proven is the reorientation. The state has to hit and hold the 50% local-grind target and move beyond paste and butter into powder and finished chocolate for African retail; secure feedstock against disease and climate and close the working-capital gap FAO flags for domestic processors, since banks prefer financing bean exports; secure refinery capacity and crude feedstock and formalise WAEMU and AfCFTA fuel-supply contracts; deliver the 5,000 MW target for 2030 with WAPP interconnection and a resolved wheeling and power purchase framework; continue cashew capacity build toward 50% by 2030; and, cross-cutting, raise industrial performance, fix the corridor checkpoints, deepen technical and vocational training, and shift export orientation toward African buyers so that the supply match is credible in fact and not only in endowment.

What is not fixed is the bundle. Côte d'Ivoire is shown 18 candidate product lines, drawn from its own capability audit, with gross continental demand given as market context and no claim value stated. Lines contested by other member states are marked as contested. Lines whose endowment is unverified are marked GREY rather than estimated.

The strength of this document is what it declines to do. It does not add its own cards together. It does not convert an endowment into a promise. It does not ask Côte d'Ivoire to surrender procurement autonomy, because Match-or-Release means the buyer can walk away from the designated supplier on any order, on the same day, without penalty. What it asks for is one hour of the Minister’s correction — and that correction is the next step of the method, not an objection to it.

15 · Your response

The correction is the method

Seven marks on the page, and the reply that produces Draft 2

Minister — this document is unfinished on purpose.

Draft 1 exists to be marked up. Two of these take a single tap. The whole response takes a minute, and it tells the Chair exactly where Côte d'Ivoire stands and what would move you. A single correction is worth more than agreement.

Where do you stand on this direction for Côte d'Ivoire?

How strongly do you back the Right of Supply framework?

7/ 10

Not at allCompletely

How well does this draft bundle reflect Côte d'Ivoire’s real strengths?

Tap to rate

In one word — are you happy with what you see?

Which single line matters most to your government?

What are we missing for Côte d'Ivoire?

Your one instruction for Draft 2.

Collated live by the Office of the Chair of the AU STC-FMAEPI. Draft 2 will show, for each change, which member state asked for it.