Right of Supply — Central African Republic

01 · Correspondence

From the Chair · to Hervé Ndoba, Minister of Finance

A first draft, put in front of you to be corrected

Draft 1 · Right of Supply · Central African Republic · from the Office of the Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

Minister Ndoba,

I write to you not as a secretariat, but as a colleague — one of fifty-four ministers who signs the same painful cheque every year. Africa buys USD 709 bn of goods annually, and USD 620 bn of it leaves this continent. Some of that money is yours, some of it is mine, and almost none of it needs to go where it goes.

What is fixed — and what is yours to change

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they carry different weight. The continental spine is fixed: USD 709 bn of total imports; USD 620 bn sourced off-continent; approximately USD 89 bn traded within Africa; USD 136.75 bn of measured government procurement inside an estimated USD 207 bn that our governments influence. Those figures are measured, reconciled and not on the table. Everything else — the product bundle proposed for Central African Republic — is Draft 1: a first pass drawn from your country’s productive-capacity audit, printed precisely so that you can correct it.

Why Central African Republic is in this room

The Central African Republic's strongest endowment is gem-quality rough diamonds. Roughly 80 per cent of its alluvial output is gem-quality, and Kimberley Process 2019 statistics record an average of about USD 227 per carat against the Democratic Republic of Congo's USD 16, a premium grounded in geology rather than policy; the eleven-year export embargo was fully lifted on 15 November 2024, restoring full participation in the legal rough trade. The honest constraint is that the beneficiation stage is raw, with no cutting, polishing or gold refining in the country, and that delivery is bounded by 131 MW of installed capacity, a 1,450 km corridor to Douala with transit often exceeding 20 days, and governance weakness reflected in the EITI suspension of November 2024. On this basis most of the country's allocations are properly classed Aspirational or Emerging, with gem-quality rough diamonds and gold its strongest contenders.

The instrument — two layers, both required

Pre-allocation. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category to designated African producers. That is the fairness layer — the reason every member state, including those still rebuilding, holds a bundle at all.

Match-or-Release. When any of our governments procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, no penalty, no delay. I have called it the Cell Phone Test: nobody in this room is asked to buy a worse phone. This is a right to match, never a right to exclude. Your procurement autonomy is untouched, and there is no pooled purchasing, no central buyer, no buyers’ club.

What I ask of you

One hour, and your pen. Mark what is wrong: the lines that do not belong to Central African Republic, the capability this draft understates, the buyer it misreads. The response instrument at the end of this document takes a minute to complete, and Draft 2 will show, line by line, which member state asked for each change. Your correction is not an objection to the method — it is the method.

Neal RijkenbergMinister of Finance, Kingdom of Eswatini · Chair, AU STC-FMAEPI

02 · Executive summary

The whole case on one page

A fixed continental prize, and a draft bundle for Central African Republic

Right of Supply · in one read

The spine is settled. The bundle is the conversation.

709USD bn total imports

620USD bn sourced off-continent

136.75USD bn measured procurement

10draft bundle lines

The prize. Africa imports USD 709 bn of goods a year. USD 620 bn of that is sourced from outside the continent, against roughly USD 89 bn traded within it — about 12.5 per cent. The off-continent figure is the market available for progressive import substitution, and it is the denominator this instrument works from.

The beachhead. USD 136.75 bn is measured government procurement, parastatals included, sitting inside an estimated USD 207 bn of government-influenced demand once contractor-imported tenders are counted. Government is where a signature can redirect demand, so government is where the instrument begins.

The instrument. Two layers. The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per product category — the fairness layer. Match-or-Release disciplines it: the designated supplier matches the open-market quote on price, quality, warranty and service, or releases the buyer instantly. This is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Purchase by purchase, country by country.

Central African Republic’s draft bundle. 10 candidate product lines are proposed, drawn from the country’s productive-capacity audit, led on present capability by Gold (unwrought/dore), Gem-quality rough diamonds. Per-line figures are gross continental import demand — market context, sourced, never a statement of what this state will supply. The tier mix is 2 strong contender · 2 emerging · 4 aspirational · 2 grey.

What is draft and what is not. The spine — USD 709 bn, USD 620 bn, USD 136.75 bn, USD 89 bn — is fixed. The bundle is Draft 1 and expected to change. The claim value for Central African Republic is deliberately not stated: it arrives only after the screens and the allocation are resolved, at Draft 2.

03 · Draft provenance

What is fixed · what is draft

Two kinds of statement sit in this document, and they are not equal

The most common way an instrument like this fails is that a provisional product list is read as a settled entitlement, or a measured continental figure is read as negotiable. This page separates them before anything else is claimed.

Fixed · not draft · not negotiable

The macro spine

Measured from UN Comtrade via the Africa Trade Intelligence Master Database v3 on a 2023 basis, reconciled across all 54 member states.

USD 709 bn — total continental imports, 2023.
USD 620 bn — sourced from outside the continent. The prize.
USD 89 bn — traded within Africa today, about 12.5 per cent.
USD 136.75 bn — measured government procurement, inside an estimated USD 207 bn government-influenced.

These figures do not move because a bundle changes.

Draft 1 · for discussion · will change

The product bundle

The 10 candidate lines proposed for Central African Republic below.

Assembled from the state’s Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit.
Allocation between states is unresolved. Several states currently claim some of the same lines; those lines are marked.
The screens that reduce a candidate bundle to a claim have not yet been applied here.
No claim value is stated for Central African Republic. That figure belongs to Draft 2.

The Minister’s correction is not an objection to the method. It is the method.

The rule this document will not break

Per-line values are gross continental import demand — what the whole continent buys in that category from all sources. They are market context. They are never a statement of what Central African Republic will supply, and they are never added together into a headline. Summing overlapping candidate lines is precisely the error that produces a figure many times a country’s GDP, and it is renounced here.

What a line value means

The continent imported this much of this product category in 2023, from everywhere.

What it does not mean

That Central African Republic will supply it, could supply it tomorrow, or is entitled to that revenue.

04 · The size of the prize

709 → 620 → 136.75 / ≈207

USD 620 bn leaves the continent every year

Africa imports USD 709 bn. USD 620 bn comes from outside the continent; about USD 89 bn is sourced within Africa. The Right of Supply begins with the off-continent prize, then narrows to the government demand a signature can redirect.

USD 709 bn

Total continental imports — all buyers, all sources

The market

USD 620 bn

From outside Africa — the import-substitution prize

The prize

USD 136.75 bn

Measured direct sovereign imports · parastatals included

Band A

≈USD 207 bn total

Government-influenced once contractor-imported tenders are counted · estimated

Band B

10 lines

Central African Republic’s Draft 1 candidate bundle · claim value resolved at Draft 2

Draft 1

Funnel widths are indicative. Band A is measured at USD 136.75 bn (2024). Band B is inferred from the one-third ratio applied to USD 620 bn, giving approximately USD 207 bn of total government-influenced demand. The final row is a count of candidate lines, not a value: no monetary claim is made for Central African Republic at Draft 1.

SCREEN 01

Government first

Begin where a state, agency or parastatal controls the tender or directly imports the good.

SCREEN 02

Off-continent

Substitute imports from beyond Africa. Do not displace an existing African producer.

SCREEN 03

Industrial

Allocate a finished good that requires plant, capability and jobs — not a raw base.

SCREEN 04

Balance

Size the right near what the member buys so the continental allocation can net out.

05 · Government beachhead

Two bands · one honest market

USD 136.75 bn measured. About USD 207 bn government-influenced.

The measured floor already includes state-owned buyers. The estimate above it captures goods specified by government but imported through EPC contractors, construction firms and other delivery vehicles that customs cannot label as sovereign.

Band A · measured floor

USD 136.75 bn

Direct sovereign imports across 62 categories and 48 states. Parastatals and controlled agencies are already present.

NNPCGASCOAICNCPBKEMSANMSPCT

Band B · estimated tender layer

≈USD 207 bn

Total government-influenced demand, applying the one-third ratio to USD 620 bn. The extension above the measured floor is an estimate based on that ratio, not a customs measurement.

Parastatals, confirmed

The sovereign database classifies buyers as monopoly, controlled or predominant, together with functions where a single state entity is the only lawful buyer, each tied to named agencies. Energy includes NNPC and national oil companies; strategic food includes GASC, OAIC and NCPB; public health includes KEMSA, NMS and PCT. Central banks, electoral commissions, defence ministries, public works and roads authorities complete the government layer. The question is not whether state-owned enterprises are counted. They are. The question is which contractor-imported tenders sit above the directly measured floor.

The seven sovereign pillars · USD bn, 2024

Energy & utilities71.65

Strategic agriculture & food27.03

Public health & pharmaceuticals14.02

Digital sovereignty & telecoms8.53

Infrastructure & transport6.60

Currency, governance & elections5.54

Defence & national security3.40

The direct sovereign floor

Fuel, grain, medicines, defence and other lines imported by a state or controlled agency.

The
tender

The contractor-imported layer

The hospital’s tiles, the state road’s rebar and the utility’s pipe. Government specifies the finished material even when a contractor clears customs.

06 · Allocation logic

Two layers · three principles

Allocation chooses the finished product — not merely the resource

The instrument only works with both of its layers in place. Drop either and it breaks: pre-allocation without discipline becomes a cartel; discipline without pre-allocation leaves nothing to build against.

Layer one · fairness

Pre-allocated supply rights

The African Union pre-allocates 25-year supply rights per HS6 product category to designated African producers. This is why every member state — including those rebuilding — holds a bundle. It creates the demand certainty a plant can be financed against.

Layer two · competitive discipline

Match-or-Release

The Cell Phone Test. When a government procures, the designated continental supplier is shown the open-market quote and must match it on price, quality, warranty and service in a single window — or release the buyer instantly, with no penalty and no delay.

What this instrument is not

It is not pooled procurement. There is no central buyer, no aggregated tender and no buyers’ club. Every purchase remains purchase-by-purchase and country-by-country, and Central African Republic’s procurement autonomy is untouched. It is a right to match a price, never a right to exclude a competitor. Local content means made anywhere on the African continent, ramping from 10 per cent to 100 per cent over ten years.

Principle one

The finished-product test

Allocate what the tender actually specifies. A government does not buy winding wire to repair motors; it buys motors. A hospital fit-out buys sanitaryware, not raw kaolin.

Pass: electric motors · sanitaryware
Fail: winding wire · raw kaolin

Principle two

Scale-matching

The largest use of a material anchors to the largest endowment-holder. Smaller holders take a niche, higher-value product rather than a continental bulk line.

Scale anchor: bulk copper cable → Zambia
Niche: motors → Botswana

Principle three

Endowment-combination

The strongest claim brings two endowments together in one plant. The allocation rewards the industrial combination, not the mere presence of either resource.

Eswatini: iron + anthracite → one niche smelter

The South Sudan Principle

Fragile and rebuilding states hold aspirational allocations. These are not near-term capacity claims and must never be read as such. They are the demand certainty against which capability is built — the reason an investor can underwrite a first plant in a state that does not yet have one. A member state is not excluded from the continental market because it is currently unable to serve it.

07 · Discipline

What should come off the list

A credible bundle is defined as much by what it refuses

Every exclusion names the screen it fails. This is the visible evidence that the bundle was reasoned rather than padded — and the reasoning is drawn from Central African Republic’s own capability audit.

Cut and polished diamonds

There is no diamond cutting or polishing capability in the country and the supply is rough stones, not finished gems. Global cutting and polishing demand sits in India and the Gulf, not Africa, so the continental substitution prize for finished diamonds is limited.

Capability inversion

Refined gold to LBMA standard

There is no gold refining to LBMA standard in the country, so the position is raw or semi-processed dore only. Production is opaque and the Ndassima chain is controlled by foreign military-commercial actors, with Midas Ressources sanctioned by OFAC in June 2023.

Raw base · industrial screen

Wood-based panels and furniture

Feedstock is present and the value-add is labour-intensive, but the beneficiation stage today is recorded as absent. The audit classes this as Aspirational, with most value-add currently occurring offshore.

Capability inversion

Uranium concentrate from Bakouma

The Bakouma deposit holds 36,500 tonnes of uranium as inferred resources but has never been mined, and Areva, now Orano, suspended the project in 2012. Continental demand is niche with few African buyers.

Raw base · industrial screen

Iron ore

Historic deposits of around 3.5 million tonnes at Bangassou and Berberati are unmined and exploitation has ceased; the audit classes the category as grey or insufficient. Global demand is high but the landlocked penalty is decisive.

Scale-matching

Cassava and food staples

Output of 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes a year is a domestic staple surplus in raw form, and the audit classes the category as grey or insufficient against regional demand. No processing capability is documented.

Scale-matching

08 · Endowment

What Central African Republic actually holds

The endowment, read honestly

Drawn from the Productive Capacity & Continental Supply Audit for Central African Republic. Capability tiers reflect installed capability, not the mere presence of a resource.

The Central African Republic's endowment is geological rather than industrial. The country is documented to host roughly 470 mineral occurrences and sites (World Bank, 2024), including diamond, gold, uranium, iron ore, copper, manganese, limestone, rutile, ilmenite and rare-earth occurrences. The defining asset is alluvial diamonds: roughly 80 per cent of output is gem-quality, an unusually high share, and Kimberley Process 2019 statistics record an average value of about USD 227 per carat against the Democratic Republic of Congo's USD 16 per carat. Reported production was 92,772 carats in 2021, against a historic reported range of 300,000 to 470,000 carats a year over the past decade. Mining is almost entirely artisanal, with an estimated 150,000 to 300,000 people working as artisanal diamond and gold miners. The Kimberley Process export embargo imposed in 2013 was fully lifted on 15 November 2024 at the annual plenary in Dubai, restoring the country as a full participant in the legal rough trade.

Gold is the second pillar. Reported production was around 900 kg in 2021, with actual output estimated at two to five tonnes a year. Ndassima, in Ouaka, is the nation's only industrialised gold mine, with a deposit valued by the government at an estimated USD 2.8 billion. It has been operated since about 2020 by Midas Ressources, linked to the Wagner Group and Africa Corps; OFAC sanctioned Midas Ressources in June 2023 for illicit gold dealings. Beyond the precious metals, the Bakouma uranium deposit holds inferred conventional resources of 36,500 tonnes of uranium recoverable to USD 260 per kilogramme, but it has never been mined and Areva, now Orano, suspended the project in 2012. Iron ore deposits at Bangassou and Berbérati, historically around 3.5 million tonnes, are no longer exploited.

The third endowment is forest. Central Africa holds around 40 per cent of Africa's forest and woodland area, and the country produced approximately 530,000 cubic metres of logs in 2017, of which nearly 280,000 cubic metres were exported as raw logs and around 80 per cent of sawnwood produced was exported. Agriculture accounts for about 43 per cent of GDP and employs roughly 75 per cent of the labour force, with cassava at 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes a year as the staple, cotton historically at 25,000 to 45,000 tonnes a year, and robusta coffee exports of about 2,100 tonnes in 2021, down more than 60 per cent from the 1990s. Revealed comparative advantage lies entirely in raw extractives and primary forestry. The country is not ranked in the Economic Complexity Index, falling below the Atlas inclusion threshold of population above one million and average trade above USD 1 billion, so no published diversification pathway exists.

The endowment in depth

Minerals and metals form the country's defining base, real in the ground but barely processed. The World Bank documents roughly 470 mineral occurrences and sites (2024), spanning diamond, gold, uranium, iron ore, copper, manganese, limestone, rutile, ilmenite and rare-earth occurrences. Diamond output was reported at 92,772 carats in 2021 (USGS Minerals Yearbook 2020–21), against a historic reported range of 300,000–470,000 carats per year over the past decade; roughly 80% is gem-quality (IPIS/USGS), and Kimberley Process 2019 statistics put CAR's average stone at around USD 227 per carat versus DRC's USD 16 per carat — an unusual quality premium. Mining is almost entirely artisanal, with an estimated 150,000 to 300,000 people working as artisanal diamond and gold miners (World Diamond Council via JCK 2024). The Kimberley Process export embargo imposed in 2013 was fully lifted on 15 November 2024 at the KP plenary in Dubai. Gold was reported at about 900 kg in 2021, with actual production estimated at 2–5 tonnes per year; Ndassima in Ouaka is the nation's only industrialised gold mine, its deposit valued by the CAR government at an estimated USD 2.8 billion, operated since about 2020 by Midas Ressources (linked to the Wagner Group/Africa Corps and sanctioned by OFAC in June 2023), with CSIS estimating output of up to USD 290 million in gold annually. The Bakouma uranium deposit holds inferred conventional resources of 36,500 tU recoverable to USD 260/kgU but has never been mined, Areva (now Orano) having suspended the project in 2012; iron deposits at Bangassou/Berbérati (historically ~3.5 Mt) and copper, manganese and rare-earth showings remain occurrences only. Crucially, the processing position is raw: no diamond cutting or polishing, no gold refining to LBMA standard, and no base-metal smelting exists in the country.

Energy is the binding constraint on any manufacturing ambition. Installed capacity rose from about 41 MW (2015–2020) to 91 MW (2021–22) and 131 MW (2023), with generation of 183 GWh in 2023 (up from 145 GWh in 2017), almost entirely hydropower. The backbone is the Boali I/II/III complex (~38.75 MW nameplate) on the Mbali River supplying Bangui, supplemented by a 25 MWp solar plant with storage at Danzi commissioned with World Bank support in 2023. There is no oil or gas production; all petroleum fuel is imported via the Douala corridor or barged on the Oubangui, and Russia donated 30,000 tonnes of diesel in early 2025 (roughly six months of consumption, per Coface). Hydropower potential is large — about 30 identified sites, with planned projects at Lobaye (75 MW), Dimoli (180 MW), Kotto (40 MW) and Lancrenon (20 MW) — but these are announced or planned, not installed.

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries anchor livelihoods: agriculture is about 43% of GDP (2017) and employs roughly 75% of the labour force. Food crops dominate, with cassava at 200,000–300,000 tonnes per year as the staple. Cash crops are weak and conflict-damaged: cotton ran 25,000–45,000 tonnes per year historically at yields of about 288 kg/ha (low by African standards), with processing limited to ginning (SOCADETEX) and much capacity looted or idle; robusta coffee exports were about 2,100 tonnes in 2021, down more than 60% from the 1990s against a 1988/89 peak of about 20,000 tonnes. Forestry is the standout renewable endowment — Central Africa holds about 40% of Africa's forest and woodland area (FAO), and CAR produced roughly 530,000 m³ of logs in 2017, of which nearly 280,000 m³ were exported as raw logs and about 80% of sawnwood produced was exported, meaning most value-addition occurs offshore.

The existing industrial base, human capital and logistics enablers are all thin. Industry including construction was 20.71% of GDP (2023, World Bank), but manufacturing value added is small and concentrated near Bangui — sawmills, breweries, cotton ginning and small food and beverage processing — with no operational special economic zone or industrial park and a UNIDO Competitive Industrial Performance ranking at or near the bottom globally. Human capital is a fundamental constraint: the labour force is about 1.9 million (Verité, 2019) with roughly 77% in agriculture, the Human Capital Index stood at 0.26 (2020), the country ranked 191st of 193 on the HDI (2022), and literacy and TVET bases are extremely weak with infrastructure looted and teachers displaced. Infrastructure compounds this: the country is landlocked and transit-dependent, with only about 900 km paved of some 24,500 km of road (under 4%), a single paved corridor of roughly 1,450 km from Bangui to the Port of Douala with transit times often exceeding 20 days and more than 50 checkpoints reported, an Oubangui river route navigable only about six months a year, no railway at all, and Douala–Bangui transport costs more than double West African comparators.

Economic complexity & comparative advantage

The Central African Republic has no Economic Complexity Index value, rank, trajectory or Atlas growth projection. The OEC states explicitly that CAR "does not have data regarding Economic Complexity Index" (2023 data), because the country falls below the Atlas of Economic Complexity inclusion threshold, which requires a population above one million and average trade above USD 1 billion. No published Atlas product-space diversification list or feasible-diversification pathway exists for it. In product-space terms, CAR sits in the sparse periphery with very few adjacent capabilities, and its revealed comparative advantage lies entirely in unprocessed primary goods — gold, gem diamonds, rough wood, sawn wood and marginal cotton — the export profile of a low-complexity, commodity-dependent economy.

That profile is confirmed by the trade structure. Total merchandise exports were about USD 113.6 million in 2023, composed (HS4) of unwrought gold at 63.9%, diamonds at 12.5%, rough wood at 6.68% and sawn wood at 4.16%, flowing principally to the UAE (40.9%), Pakistan (19.8%), Italy (12.6%), France (9%) and Cameroon (7.2%), with the trade balance structurally in deficit at about 20.6% of GDP (2022). Any complexity gain must therefore come from the most basic value-addition steps — cotton ginning to yarn, logs to kiln-dried sawnwood and furniture, artisanal gold to assayed doré, and rough diamond sorting and valuation towards cutting.

The trump card · the single strongest continental position

The single most defensible continental supply position is gem-quality rough diamonds (HS 7102). Roughly 80% of CAR's diamond output is gem-quality (IPIS/USGS), and per Kimberley Process 2019 statistics the country's stones averaged around USD 227 per carat versus DRC's USD 16 per carat — a striking quality premium grounded in geology, not policy. Historic reported production ranged 300,000–470,000 carats per year (with 92,772 carats reported for 2021), and the eleven-year KP export embargo was fully lifted on 15 November 2024, restoring CAR as a full participant in the legal rough trade. This is the one category where the country holds a genuine, geologically-grounded and internationally-recognised endowment of above-average quality, an existing if informal production and valuation chain (BECDOR and the bureaux d'achat), and a re-opened legal export channel — a matter of demand certainty for a well-corroborated endowment rather than any near-term claim on installed capacity, since continental cutting demand sits largely offshore.

The honest qualifiers are heavy. The beneficiation stage is raw — the supply is rough stones, not finished gems, and global cutting and polishing demand lies in India and the Gulf rather than Africa, so the continental substitution prize for finished diamonds is limited. About 30% of output is smuggled to Cameroon or Sudan's Darfur region, driven by CAR's 12% diamond tax against 3.25% in DRC (IPIS via JCK). Governance is weak, with EITI suspended in November 2024, and rebel and Wagner influence over mining zones means much value is captured outside state and legal channels. What would undermine the position is renewed conflict, KP re-suspension over traceability failures, persistent smuggling, and the continued absence of any domestic value-addition that would let CAR offer finished product rather than raw stones.

Current reality

The Central African Republic is a landlocked, conflict-affected economy of roughly USD 2.75 billion GDP (2024, World Bank) and about 5.7 million people, among the poorest and most fragile states on earth, with roughly 67.5 per cent of the population living under USD 3 a day in 2024. It is today a raw-commodity exporter with near-zero domestic beneficiation. There is no diamond cutting or polishing, no gold refining to LBMA standard, and no base-metal smelting in the country. Industry including construction was 20.71 per cent of GDP in 2023, but actual manufacturing consists of sawmills, breweries, cotton ginning and small food and beverage processing concentrated near Bangui, with no operational special economic zone or industrial park of note. Total merchandise exports were approximately USD 113.6 million in 2023, composed of unwrought gold at 63.9 per cent, diamonds at 12.5 per cent, rough wood at 6.68 per cent and sawn wood at 4.16 per cent, with principal destinations the UAE at 40.9 per cent, Pakistan at 19.8 per cent, Italy at 12.6 per cent, France at 9 per cent and Cameroon at 7.2 per cent.

Energy and logistics are the binding constraints. Installed capacity reached 131 MW in 2023, with generation of 183 GWh, almost entirely hydropower, against chronic deficits and load-shedding. The paved road network is around 900 km of some 24,500 km in total, under 4 per cent; the single paved international corridor runs approximately 1,450 km from Bangui to the Port of Douala with transit times often exceeding 20 days and more than 50 checkpoints reported; the Oubangui River route is navigable only around six months a year; and there is no railway. Human Capital Index stands at 0.26, among the lowest worldwide, with the country ranked 191st of 193 on the HDI in 2022 and no specialised industrial skill clusters. Under the fragile-state inclusion principle, most allocations are honestly classed Aspirational or Emerging rather than reflecting real present capability.

Read under the South Sudan Principle

Central African Republic holds an aspirational allocation. Nothing on these pages is a near-term capacity claim. The bundle is the demand certainty against which capability is built, and it is deliberately held open while the state rebuilds.

09 · The draft bundle

Draft 1 · 10 candidate lines · will change

Central African Republic’s provisional product bundle

This bundle is Draft 1 and is offered for correction. Each card shows a candidate product category, the HS codes inside it, the strength tier assessed from Central African Republic’s capability audit, and the gross continental import demand for that category in 2023. That figure is market context — what the whole continent buys, from all sources. It is never a statement of what Central African Republic will supply, and these figures are never added together.

Portfolio at a glance · strength-tier mix

How Central African Republic’s 10 candidate lines distribute across the strength tiers — the shape of the bundle before any allocation is settled.

Strong Contender 2Emerging 2Aspirational 4Grey 2

CONTINENTAL ANCHOR

Established continental-scale capability.

STRONG CONTENDER

Substantial installed capability; competitive on the continent.

EMERGING

Capability present and growing; not yet at continental scale.

ASPIRATIONAL

A build, not present production. Demand certainty against which capability is created.

GREY

Endowment noted; capability not yet verified.

Gold (unwrought/dore)

Ndassima industrial mine (~USD2.8bn deposit) + 2-5 t/yr artisanal · Maturity: Raw/semi · Competitiveness: Very high

STRONG CONTENDER

USD 2.99 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

710811Metals; gold, non-monetary, powder

710812Metals; gold, non-monetary, unwrought (but not powder)

710813Metals; gold, semi-manufactured

710820Gold, monetary

Screening intensity · indicativeMedium–high

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 36 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Central African Republic imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Uganda USD 1.9 bnSouth Africa USD 668.4 mEgypt USD 139.2 mMorocco USD 59.6 mLibya USD 58.9 mTunisia USD 43.4 mAlgeria USD 43.4 mMauritius USD 36.1 m

Source: USGS MYB; CSIS · 2020-21; 2023

Iron ore

Historic ~3.5 Mt deposits; occurrences · Maturity: Unmined · Competitiveness: High globally; landlocked penalty

GREY

USD 2.85 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

260111Iron ores and concentrates; non-agglomerated

260112Iron ores and concentrates; agglomerated (excluding roasted iron pyrites)

260120Iron pyrites; roasted

Shared demand at Draft 1. This line is currently claimed by 19 member states. The figure shown is gross continental demand for the category, not a quantity available to any one of them. Allocation between the claiming states is unresolved and is exactly what Draft 2 must settle.

Central African Republic imported USD 0 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 1.63 bnAlgeria USD 822.5 mLibya USD 324.4 mKenya USD 50 mMozambique USD 20.9 mBotswana USD 0.2 mMorocco USD 0.2 mSouth Africa USD 0.1 m

Source: USGS · 2024

Wood-based panels / furniture

Feedstock present; labour-intensive value-add · Maturity: Absent · Competitiveness: High

ASPIRATIONAL

USD 1.87 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim

440710Coniferous wood sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded...

440711Wood; coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, san

440712Wood; coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440713Wood; coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped length

440714Wood; coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.))

440719Wood; coniferous species, other than of pine (Pinus spp.) or fir (Abies spp.) or spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped le

440721Wood, tropical; as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this Chapter, mahogany (Swietenia spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise

440722Wood, tropical; virola, imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or

440723Wood, tropical; teak, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, planed, square dressed, structural, thicker than 6mm

440724Virola, mahogany "Swietenia spp.", imbuia and balsa, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or...

440725Wood, tropical; dark red meranti, light red meranti and meranti bakau, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whe

440726Wood, tropical; white lauan, white meranti, white seraya, yellow meranti and alan, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or

440727Wood, tropical; sapelli, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440728Wood, tropical; iroko, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440729Wood, tropical, n.e.c. in item no. 4407.2, sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm

440791Wood; oak (Quercus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440792Wood; beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440793Wood; maple (Acer spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440794Wood; cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440795Wood; ash (Fraxinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm

440796Wood; of birch (Betula spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440797Wood; of poplar and aspen (Populus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed

440799Wood; sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6mm, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, n.e.c. in heading no. 4407

442110Wood; clothes hangers

442120Wood; coffins

442190Other articles of wood, n.e.s.

442191Wood; of bamboo, articles n.e.c. in heading no. 4414 to 4420 (excluding clothes hangers)

442199Wood; not of bamboo, articles n.e.c. in heading no. 4414 to 4420 (excluding clothes hangers)

Screening intensity · indicativeBuilding

Central African Republic imported USD 0.3 m of this category in 2023.

Leading importing states · gross 2023

Egypt USD 740.8 mAlgeria USD 318.6 mMorocco USD 296 mSouth Africa USD 124.8 mLibya USD 51 mKenya USD 50.7 mSomalia USD 45.1 mSenegal USD 37.5 m

Source: AfDB · 2021

Sawn wood / lumber

Existing sawmills; ~80% sawnwood exported · Maturity: Intermediate · Competitiveness: High

EMERGING

USD 1.78 bngross continental import demand · 2023 · market context, not a supply claim